Sweden avoiding lockdown

StefanFal

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I told you this would happen and it is just the start for countries that fail to gain control of the virus transmission.

Sweden excluded from Nordic border opening

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/29/norway-and-denmark-drop-mutual-border-controls-but-exclude-sweden-coronavirus

This seems like nonsense to me with regards to Denmark. There are more cases in Copenhagen than Skåne. Hows this going to play out with the daily commutes across the Swedish border for workers?

cnocbui

Sweden’s economy actually grew in the first quarter after it opted against a full virus lockdown
Published Fri, May 29

The Nordic country’s statistics office reported gross domestic product (GDP), the broadest measure of economic health, grew at an annual rate of 0.4% in the first quarter.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/coronavirus-swedens-gdp-actually-grew-in-the-first-quarter.html

fisgon

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/coronavirus-swedens-gdp-actually-grew-in-the-first-quarter.html

Also in this article is the sentence.....

"The National Institute of Economic Research, a respected think tank, said in a statement published April 29 that it believed Sweden’s economy would shrink 7% this year."

cnocbui

fisgon wrote: »

Also in this article is the sentence.....

"The National Institute of Economic Research, a respected think tank, said in a statement published April 29 that it believed Sweden’s economy would shrink 7% this year."

The prognostications of supposed experts are always interesting, but as the data reported on shows, nothing quite beats the real thing. The sale of new houses in the US in April, actually increased by 0.6%, when economics experts were predicting a roughly 21% decline. If Sweden's unemployment rate doesn't increase significantly, as is likely in some lockdown countries, then they will very likely recover much faster, should that 7% decline happen.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

The prognostications of supposed experts are always interesting, but as the data reported on shows, nothing quite beats the real thing. The sale of new houses in the US in April, actually increased by 0.6%, when economics experts were predicting a roughly 21% decline. If Sweden's unemployment rate doesn't increase significantly, as is likely in some lockdown countries, then they will very likely recover much faster, should that 7% decline happen.

Sweden`s Central Bank is the worlds oldest central bank so I reckon on that basis with all the data available to them they have a pretty fair handle on projecting how the the Swedish economy will perform.
They are also in agreement with Sweden`s Independent Institute of Economic Research on a contraction of GDP by around 7%. But they have a proviso that 6.9% is best case scenario depending on how long the present Swedish restrictions stay in place.



Their worst case scenario is a contraction of GDP by 9.7% which leaves Sweden in a very precarious position as their strategy has nowhere to go as regards restrictions.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/29/coronavirus-swedens-gdp-actually-grew-in-the-first-quarter.html

It fell of the cliff for the projections of it`s own Central Bank, it`s own Institute of Economic Research and World Economics for the remaining 3 quarters. Internally a recent banking survey revealed that customer spending in Sweden is just 4% greater than Denmark in lockdown.
Economies are global. When everybody else sneezes no matter what you may believe or do, you are going to fell the effect.

cnocbui

You are trying too hard.

charlie14

cnocbui wrote: »

You are trying too hard.

Not really. It`s all old news that has been posted here over the past month. I just felt from your posts you may have missed it.

biko

Sweden is a rich high-tax country with a domestic pharmaceutical industry, but has managed to test less per capita than Djibouti,
an African country whose main exports are livestock, goats, camels and leather.

joeysoap

Is Qatar successfully doing what Sweden tried to do unsuccessfully? Very few deaths - 55,000 cases out of a population of less than 3m.

STB.

GreeBo wrote: »

Thanks, that's exactly what I suspected and was asking.
In which case, herd immunity is potentially meaningless.

Indeed it was meaningless, and without scientific evidence.

The antibody tests that came back from Sweden show single figure percentages. The gamble with the lives of the Swedish vulnerable and elderly hasn't paid off.

That wont stop the lunatic who was left in advisory control from defending his stupid theories despite the fact that Sweden have the highest deaths per population in the last 7 days again. It may shut up those who were advocating it here.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/daily-covid-deaths-per-million-7-day-average?country=CAN~DEU~IRL~ITA~KOR~SWE~GBR~USA

dontparkhere

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Is Sweden really fairing as badly as people make out? In deaths per million they don’t seem out of line with other countries (418 Sweden vs 337 Ireland vs 569 Uk). They have recorded their first day with zero deaths. All the antibody tests are quoted as the end of April which is over 5 weeks ago. While they haven’t achieved herd immunity as anticipated, I can only assume they have higher levels of immunity. By the time we have a similar immunity level, be that by vaccination or infection, will we be any better off? There are still no medicines or vaccines in the immediate future. In reality we can’t stay in lockdown forever.
Maybe they will be on the wrong side but they are not drastically out of line with other countries and have shown an alternative path.

Harry Palmr

They didn't achieve any such thing, reported deaths at the weekend in Sweden are even more skewed than they are here. It'll be Wednesday before there a good idea of what's going on there.

joeysoap

I thought we agreed sone time ago that weekend statistics from Sweden are meaningless.

charlie14

dontparkhere wrote: »

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Is Sweden really fairing as badly as people make out? In deaths per million they don’t seem out of line with other countries (418 Sweden vs 337 Ireland vs 569 Uk). They have recorded their first day with zero deaths. All the antibody tests are quoted as the end of April which is over 5 weeks ago. While they haven’t achieved herd immunity as anticipated, I can only assume they have higher levels of immunity. By the time we have a similar immunity level, be that by vaccination or infection, will we be any better off? There are still no medicines or vaccines in the immediate future. In reality we can’t stay in lockdown forever.
Maybe they will be on the wrong side but they are not drastically out of line with other countries and have shown an alternative path.

Short answer. Yes they are fairing badly.
For comparing on like for like with their neighbours Norway and Finland whose combined population is that of Sweden. Total deaths for both 556. For Sweden 4,395.

Even if you compare Ireland to Sweden, Few weeks ago deaths per million were similar. Now Sweden`s is 30% greater and that gap widening daily. Sweden are more than likely to shortly replace France for deaths per million to become the 5th. highest in Europe.

Their antibody testing included the period Sweden said was their peak and only showed around 5% nationally.
Same as Spain and France who used lockdown. Spain`s epicenter, Madrid tested nearly twice that of Stockholm.
Sweden are nowhere near herd immunity which even conservatively would need to be in the 60%-70% range nationally.


Sunday numbers mean nothing for Sweden due to how they record weekend deaths.

paddar

charlie14 wrote: »

Short answer. Yes they are fairing badly.
For comparing on like for like with their neighbours Norway and Finland whose combined population is that of Sweden. Total deaths for both 556. For Sweden 4,395.

Even if you compare Ireland to Sweden, Few weeks ago deaths per million were similar. Now Sweden`s is 30% greater and that gap widening daily. Sweden are more than likely to shortly replace France for deaths per million to become the 5th. highest in Europe.

Their antibody testing included the period Sweden said was their peak and only showed around 5% nationally.
Same as Spain and France who used lockdown. Spain`s epicenter, Madrid tested nearly twice that of Stockholm.
Sweden are nowhere near herd immunity which even conservatively would need to be in the 60%-70% range nationally.


Sunday numbers mean nothing for Sweden due to how they record weekend deaths.

Yup, also there were 6 deaths reported later on Sunday after the official statement from the health agency reporting 0 deaths. I have attached a screen shot from a morning news program on Sunday discussing the weekly death figures in comparison to the other Nordic countries. I don't think you need to understand Swedish just to see the impact of the different approaches on the death rates.

charlie14

paddar wrote: »

Yup, also there were 6 deaths reported later on Sunday after the official statement from the health agency reporting 0 deaths. I have attached a screen shot from a morning news program on Sunday discussing the weekly death figures in comparison to the other Nordic countries. I don't think you need to understand Swedish just to see the impact of the different approaches on the death rates.

It certainly put it in context relative to their neighbours.

STB.

dontparkhere wrote: »

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

Is Sweden really fairing as badly as people make out? In deaths per million they don’t seem out of line with other countries (418 Sweden vs 337 Ireland vs 569 Uk). They have recorded their first day with zero deaths. All the antibody tests are quoted as the end of April which is over 5 weeks ago. While they haven’t achieved herd immunity as anticipated, I can only assume they have higher levels of immunity. By the time we have a similar immunity level, be that by vaccination or infection, will we be any better off? There are still no medicines or vaccines in the immediate future. In reality we can’t stay in lockdown forever.
Maybe they will be on the wrong side but they are not drastically out of line with other countries and have shown an alternative path.

YES. They are.

Their rolling 7 day deaths are double anyone else. They stand out like a sore thumb. Its the 3rd week in a row. I am surprised Tegnell still has a job for his mindless pursuit of herd immunity. So many have needlessly died.

The antibody tests are as reported on 20 May. Its 7.3%. Even if herd immunity was a runner (which is unproven) 7.3% is feck all use. It is also not a vacine. So, you most certainly CANNOT assume they have higher levels of immunity.

Eitherway, Tegnell has rightly fúcked over the Swedish people. Any posters here were supporting this approach.

biko

Danish high school students took a trip to Sweden: now 5 out of 12 have corona

On Monday, a message landed in the inbox of all 1st grade students at Roskilde Cathedral School: They must stay home for the next 14 days and receive home schooling instead of attending.

The reason is - in all likelihood - a small trip to Sweden

https://www.bt.dk/forbrug/gymnasieelever-tog-en-smuttur-til-sverige-nu-har-fem-ud-af-12-corona
https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=auto&tl=en&u=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bt.dk%2Fforbrug%2Fgymnasieelever-tog-en-smuttur-til-sverige-nu-har-fem-ud-af-12-corona

MOH

This entire thread seems to be ignoring the fact that Sweden not in lockdown, vs Ireland in "lockdown", aren't exactly polar opposites.
Swedes seem to have a bit of cop on. Ireland was tweeting "closethepubs" while people were standing on top of each other in supermarkets for a week after all the pubs shut. We haven't even had anything remotely resembling the lockdown most countries have had.

There's been regular parties in my apartment complex since Easter. There's pubs in Dublin selling "takeaway" beer in open plastic glasses that people are lashing into beside the pub. I can't find much media coverage of hundreds of Swedes in close proximity holding a solidarity march in the middle of Stockholm today.

There's pretty much zero argument against the fact that by any measure, to date, Sweden has fared worse than us so far. But this is still the start of the long haul. We're pretty much still where we were in March, but most of the population seems to think it's all over now. Good luck to anyone trying to roll things back when the second wave hits.

charlie14

MOH wrote: »

This entire thread seems to be ignoring the fact that Sweden not in lockdown, vs Ireland in "lockdown", aren't exactly polar opposites.
Swedes seem to have a bit of cop on. Ireland was tweeting "closethepubs" while people were standing on top of each other in supermarkets for a week after all the pubs shut. We haven't even had anything remotely resembling the lockdown most countries have had.

There's been regular parties in my apartment complex since Easter. There's pubs in Dublin selling "takeaway" beer in open plastic glasses that people are lashing into beside the pub. I can't find much media coverage of hundreds of Swedes in close proximity holding a solidarity march in the middle of Stockholm today.

There's pretty much zero argument against the fact that by any measure, to date, Sweden has fared worse than us so far. But this is still the start of the long haul. We're pretty much still where we were in March, but most of the population seems to think it's all over now. Good luck to anyone trying to roll things back when the second wave hits.

Whatever we may be short off as a country it is certainly not idiots.
Regardless of them we have somehow managed to get the numbers down by using lockdown.

Had we not used lockdown we would now be in the same situation as Sweden or worse. They are just stuck on a plateau, and the immunity theory just has not panned out. Spain and France who both used lockdown are as close to herd immunity as Sweden.
When or if their is a second wave, with low numbers at least we have a bit of wriggle room and a plan to keep them down by quick test results, contact tracing and quarantine.
Sweden have neither wriggle room or a plan it appears other than immunity.

paddar

STB. wrote: »

YES. They are.

Their rolling 7 day deaths are double anyone else. They stand out like a sore thumb. Its the 3rd week in a row. I am surprised Tegnell still has a job for his mindless pursuit of herd immunity. So many have needlessly died.

The antibody tests are as reported on 20 May. Its 7.3%. Even if herd immunity was a runner (which is unproven) 7.3% is feck all use. It is also not a vacine. So, you most certainly CANNOT assume they have higher levels of immunity.

Eitherway, Tegnell has rightly fúcked over the Swedish people. Any posters here were supporting this approach.

Interesting you mention Tegnell, here he is after the Health Agency update yesterday. https://tt.omni.se/tegnell-minskningen-har-stannat-av/a/kJ7olL

''In spite of the message that the reduction in the number of cases has stopped, Anders Tegnell is hopeful that the spread will slow down this summer.
There are two factors we know are important. Partly the summer weather, which we know is good, makes the virus less stable, he says and continues:
And then, especially in Stockholm, there are so many that are immune thus the spread of the virus decreases quite drastically.''

Where is a [Citation Needed] bracket when you need one? I also think the journalists are partly to blame for letting them away with it and not questioning why their strategy is not working. They have been repeating the same mantra since the end of March.

Also it not the virus its the statisticians that are wrong
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/sverige-toppar-dodslista-tegnell-inte-jamforbart/

''Sweden is at the top if you look at the number of deaths in covid-19 seen in the population, but according to state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, the figures are not comparable, Expressen writes.
According to Tegnell, the problem is that those who do the statistics are probably looking at the number of individual deaths per day.
One should look at the ongoing seven-day average, and one should look at it quite far back in time for stability''

is_that_so

paddar wrote: »

Interesting you mention Tegnell, here he is after the Health Agency update yesterday. https://tt.omni.se/tegnell-minskningen-har-stannat-av/a/kJ7olL

''In spite of the message that the reduction in the number of cases has stopped, Anders Tegnell is hopeful that the spread will slow down this summer.
There are two factors we know are important. Partly the summer weather, which we know is good, makes the virus less stable, he says and continues:
And then, especially in Stockholm, there are so many that are immune thus the spread of the virus decreases quite drastically.''

Where is a [Citation Needed] bracket when you need one? I also think the journalists are partly to blame for letting them away with it and not questioning why their strategy is not working. They have been repeating the same mantra since the end of March.

Also it not the virus its the statisticians that are wrong
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/sverige-toppar-dodslista-tegnell-inte-jamforbart/

''Sweden is at the top if you look at the number of deaths in covid-19 seen in the population, but according to state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, the figures are not comparable, Expressen writes.
According to Tegnell, the problem is that those who do the statistics are probably looking at the number of individual deaths per day.
One should look at the ongoing seven-day average, and one should look at it quite far back in time for stability''

The effect of the summer on the virus is unknown and that number of infected in the population seems to be a guess. It's quite probably wrong if you look at the levels other countries have found with antibody testing.

bb1234567

paddar wrote: »

Interesting you mention Tegnell, here he is after the Health Agency update yesterday. https://tt.omni.se/tegnell-minskningen-har-stannat-av/a/kJ7olL

''In spite of the message that the reduction in the number of cases has stopped, Anders Tegnell is hopeful that the spread will slow down this summer.
There are two factors we know are important. Partly the summer weather, which we know is good, makes the virus less stable, he says and continues:
And then, especially in Stockholm, there are so many that are immune thus the spread of the virus decreases quite drastically.''

Where is a [Citation Needed] bracket when you need one? I also think the journalists are partly to blame for letting them away with it and not questioning why their strategy is not working. They have been repeating the same mantra since the end of March.

Also it not the virus its the statisticians that are wrong
https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/coronaviruset/sverige-toppar-dodslista-tegnell-inte-jamforbart/

''Sweden is at the top if you look at the number of deaths in covid-19 seen in the population, but according to state epidemiologist Anders Tegnell, the figures are not comparable, Expressen writes.
According to Tegnell, the problem is that those who do the statistics are probably looking at the number of individual deaths per day.
One should look at the ongoing seven-day average, and one should look at it quite far back in time for stability''

Wow he's still talking about estimates as if they are fact. He was so far off his predictions for months on end what should make him or any of us believe he is correct this time ?

biko

38589 known cases
4468 officially dead
12% of known cases have passed

Numbers from FHMs own tracking page
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/09f821667ce64bf7be6f9f87457ed9aa

Harry Palmr

Last five days

775 new cases and 65 new deaths
272 new cases and 8 new deaths
429 new cases
637 new cases and 45 new deaths
749 new cases and 84 new deaths

So the new cases remain persistent at a high level.

The linear death graph is only flattening in the most gentle manner, it took 17 days to go from 3000 to 4000 dead I'd say 5000 will be hit in the week of June 14 to 21st.

Nermal

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1267830876823384065

callmehal

Sweden's government have a lot to answer for. Their strategy has been disastrous. Their deaths per million makes for awful reading. Same for other basket cases like the UK. Then you look at our deaths per million, worse than the USA. Even if that's not fully accurate, it shows our government have been very poor too.

charlie14

Nermal wrote: »

https://twitter.com/boriquagato/status/1267830876823384065

Very difficult to actually read that.


Here is a simpler means of seeing the odd one out for Covid-19 deaths per million of population.



Denmark 100
Sweden 442
Norway 45

Tea drinker

callmehal wrote: »

Sweden's government have a lot to answer for. Their strategy has been disastrous. Their deaths per million makes for awful reading. Same for other basket cases like the UK. Then you look at our deaths per million, worse than the USA. Even if that's not fully accurate, it shows our government have been very poor too.

Well people here will still moan about Trump while braying about Leo. But TBH I think US figures probably less accurate than ours.Looking back, I think our Lockdown should have been shorter, but a far more complete and controlled lockdown for the nursing homes in tandem and still ongoing would have delivered most of the benefits with less disruption.
It's only when the `national death rates per month are released we get an idea of the success. Like for UK it's a disaster, they have about 70 - 80 k deaths taking into account the lack of industrial activity and road traffic accidents.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/monthlyfiguresondeathsregisteredbyareaofusualresidence#:~:text=Main%20points%20from%20latest%20release,the%20same%20month%20in%202019.