rip.ie stats

ifElseThen

Projected Total for April 2020 based on rip.ie entries up until 11 April 2020

MM/YYYY| #Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
Apr-15| 2610| 53.40%
Apr-16| 2675| 49.67%
Apr-17| 2561| 56.33%
Apr-18| 2797| 43.14%
Apr-19| 2760| 45.06%
Apr-20| 4004|



N.B.

• Projected April 2020 total based off 30*April daily average.
• Not all notices are necessarily posted on rip.ie.
• rip.ie uses single id for dual entries.
• rip.ie id seems to be incremented sequentially.

_Kaiser_

I'm not sure I get your point?

People are dying both as a result of Covid and other/natural causes?

Not sure how posting increasing death figures helps?

_ZeeK_

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I'm not sure I get your point?

People are dying both as a result of Covid and other/natural causes?

Not sure how posting increasing death figures helps?

Puts things in context in a way the media, in reporting absolute death figures every day, does not.

Darc19

This makes no sense whatsoever.

A sort of scaremongering sensationalist post worthy of the daily mail/muck

As you state, not all deaths are published on rip. But due to restrictions, they are more likely to be published there this year.

And then you are second guessing figures for 2/3rds of the month.

Quick march yourself to the daily mail - they love people like you that can create hysterical nonsense

ifElseThen

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I'm not sure I get your point?

People are dying both as a result of Covid and other/natural causes?

Not sure how posting increasing death figures helps?

Ah it's really just a tracker on the rip stats. A rough but stark guide to the spike that COVID-19 has had on the death rates.

its absolutely relevant

if there isnt 100% certainty of how many are dying because of the virus - because of the limits of knowledge, because coroners decide against putting it down, because etc etc

then the establishment of a deviation from a baseline is very useful knowledge

why anyone would attack such a demonstration is beyond me

facts are never scaremongering

_ZeeK_

Darc19 wrote: »

This makes no sense whatsoever.

A sort of scaremongering sensationalist post worthy of the daily mail/muck

As you state, not all deaths are published on rip. But due to restrictions, they are more likely to be published there this year.

And then you are second guessing figures for 2/3rds of the month.

Quick march yourself to the daily mail - they love people like you that can create hysterical nonsense

Hysterical? Seems balanced. OP even points out areas where statistical anomalies might lie.

See this from Dan O'Brien - Chief economist at the Institute of International and European Affairs and columnist with the Independent (not the Dail Mail). I agree with his assertion.

https://twitter.com/danobrien20/status/1245469804812779520?s=20

Jim_Hodge

ifElseThen wrote: »

Ah it's really just a tracker on the rip stats. A rough but stark guide to the spike that COVID-19 has had on the death rates.

But it's not. It's unscientific, and ignores all other factors, like greater use of RIP due to the restrictions.

Sorry, but it's hogwash.

expectationlost

ifElseThen wrote: »

Projected Total for April 2020 based on rip.ie entries up until 11 April 2020

MM/YYYY| #Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
Apr-15| 2610| 53.40%
Apr-16| 2675| 49.67%
Apr-17| 2561| 56.33%
Apr-18| 2797| 43.14%
Apr-19| 2760| 45.06%
Apr-20| 4004|



N.B.

• Projected April 2020 total based off 30*April daily average.
• Not all notices are necessarily posted on rip.ie.
• rip.ie uses single id for dual entries.
• rip.ie id seems to be incremented sequentially.

https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1248215014017765378

ifElseThen

Darc19 wrote: »

This makes no sense whatsoever.

A sort of scaremongering sensationalist post worthy of the daily mail/muck

As you state, not all deaths are published on rip. But due to restrictions, they are more likely to be published there this year.

And then you are second guessing figures for 2/3rds of the month.

Quick march yourself to the daily mail - they love people like you that can create hysterical nonsense

I fail to see any sensationalism in providing a comparison?

I'm not second guessing, merely making a projection based on the daily average to date.

If anything the starkness of the approx increase in deaths might reinforce the severity of COVID-19.

wakka12

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

But it's not. It's unscientific, and ignores all other factors, like greater use of RIP due to the restrictions.

Sorry, but it's hogwash.

Most other European countries have experienced major increases in national mortality rates in recent weeks. And people think it is hogwash or scare mongering to say that that might be the case here? Yeh the increase is much more likely to be people using RIP.ie more than the pandemic which is killing thousands of people daily. About 75 people die in Ireland daily, the last few days this has increased by about 25-30% because of COVID deaths. The figures in the OP are higher than that, so maybe it has also increased because of people using RIP.ie more. But COVID is obviously a major contributor to the rise

MadYaker

ifElseThen wrote: »

Projected Total for April 2020 based on rip.ie entries up until 11 April 2020

MM/YYYY| #Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
Apr-15| 2610| 53.40%
Apr-16| 2675| 49.67%
Apr-17| 2561| 56.33%
Apr-18| 2797| 43.14%
Apr-19| 2760| 45.06%
Apr-20| 4004|



N.B.

• Projected April 2020 total based off 30*April daily average.
• Not all notices are necessarily posted on rip.ie.
• rip.ie uses single id for dual entries.
• rip.ie id seems to be incremented sequentially.

Do you have this for march of this year?

KevRossi

Every death in Ireland has to be registered by law. It is only when those stats come out, and when we can compare them to previous years, that we will know the true extent of COVID-19. Some of those registered as dying will be directly from COVID, some will have natural deaths, some will pass away due to natural causes exacerbated by the COVID situation (heart failure due to stress etc.).

ifElseThen

From a purely numbers point of view, it'll all balance out I guess. One death this side from Covid = 1 less death on the far side from other causes.

ifElseThen

wakka12 wrote: »

The figures in the OP are higher than that, so maybe it has also increased because of people using RIP.ie more. But COVID is obviously a major contributor to the rise

In recent years anyway, it would seem of late that the majority of deaths are posted on rip.ie.

For 2018, rip.ie has *34026 entries v 31,116 official CSO deaths in 2018 so approx 10% more entries on rip.ie.

I see some death notices on rip.ie of Irish people who died abroad e.g. living in England etc.

Guess these make up the bulk of the extra notices on rip.ie.

id be surprised if the vast majority of deaths in this country arent on rip.ie

the numbers wont balance out, unless you mean of course that we all die eventually!

ifElseThen

Deleted User wrote: »

id be surprised if the vast majority of deaths in this country arent on rip.ie

the numbers wont balance out, unless you mean of course that we all die eventually!

Yes that's exactly what I meant, purely from the numbers!

My dad is in a nursing home where 9 have died since start of March.
He tested positive for Covid-19 and is on day 9 of the 14-day cycle.

I'd have expected another 5 years for him so if he died from this, then 1 less death registered on the far side of it.

Thankfully he is eating and drinking and seems to be getting through it though.

biko

ifElseThen wrote: »

I fail to see any sensationalism in providing a comparison?

Don't worry, Darc19 is only trying to make you doubt and self-censor yourself.

ninebeanrows

Often there are two or three notices on rip.ie for same person with different addresses.

Widdensushi

Any reports on the rise in suicide due to this crisis ?

BrianD3

KevRossi wrote: »

Every death in Ireland has to be registered by law. It is only when those stats come out, and when we can compare them to previous years, that we will know the true extent of COVID-19. Some of those registered as dying will be directly from COVID, some will have natural deaths, some will pass away due to natural causes exacerbated by the COVID situation (heart failure due to stress etc.).

It will be interesting to keep an eye on the UK's office for national statistics all cause mortality figures (England and Wales only) on www.ons.gov.uk I don't know if our CSO is as up to speed.

Latest figures from ONS are for the week ending the 27th March, provisional figures but I doubt that they will be far off the final figures. Deaths have to be registered within 5 days. Deaths in England/Wales were approx 150,000 from the start of the year to the 27th, for the previous 5 years the average was approx 153,000 for the same period. Deaths for the 1st March to the 27th were about 47k which was roughly the same as the 5 year average.

However the big surge in media/public health reported Covid-19 deaths happened after the 27th so it will be very telling to see the figures in the next few weeks. Tests for statistical significance can be carried out.

As you say, all cause mortality stats are critical here. The sloppy terminology used by the media and others annoys me. Take the following statements:
"10 people who have tested positive for Covid-19 have died"
"10 deaths were associated with Covid-19"
"10 people have died from Covid-19"

All with different meanings but used interchangeably. Not surprising though give that for several weeks, the media here in Ireland and many poster in this forum couldn't seem to grasp the difference between "number of people who have been admitted to ICU" from "number of people in ICU".

4068ac1elhodqr

Don't see the logic in some using standard published data as a reason to attack the most read(en) online newspaper in the world, some lefty agenda perhaps.

Another more practical and localised option would be to glance at your local newspapers and compare the death notices in the coming weeks.
N.Italy had it very bad, dozens of pages added in some cases to their regional/local newspapers in Lombardy etc.

ifElseThen

MadYaker wrote: »

Do you have this for march of this year?

MM/YYYY| #Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
Mar-15| 3044| 0.23%
Mar-16| 2996| 1.84%
Mar-17| 2883| 5.83%
Mar-18| 3151| -3.17%
Mar-19| 2806| 8.73%
Mar-20| 3051|

ifElseThen

Sleety_Rain wrote: »

Often there are two or three notices on rip.ie for same person with different addresses.

Yeah for these, rip.ie uses the same id so it's a single entry with multiple locations. So in essence, not duplicated.

theoneeyedman

FWIW, I think these figures are very interesting, and in the absence of Realtime CSO death figures, draws an interesting picture.

There are people dieing at home that 'may' ja e Covid, but will not be measured in the real figures. This exercise will captuer those people.

_Brian

Ireland had about 600 deaths a week during 2019. Say 85 a day.
I checked online a few weeks ago after a conversation at home.

If everything else stays the same then the additional Covid19 deaths at the moment would indicate a noticeable increase.

fryup

if a number of deaths happened in a nursing home...should i be concerned?

ifElseThen

MM/YYYY| # Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
April 2015| 2610| 53.16%
April 2016| 2675| 49.44%
April 2017| 2561| 56.09%
April 2018| 2797| 42.92%
April 2019| 2760| 44.84%
April 2020| 3998|

ifElseThen

Up to 13 Apr 2020

MM/YYYY| # Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
April 2015| 2610| 54.29%
April 2016| 2675| 50.54%
April 2017| 2561| 57.24%
April 2018| 2797| 43.97%
April 2019| 2760| 45.90%
April 2020| 4027|

Skyfloater

ifElseThen wrote: »

Up to 13 Apr 2020

MM/YYYY| # Deaths| 2020 %Increase v Year
April 2015| 2610| 54.29%
April 2016| 2675| 50.54%
April 2017| 2561| 57.24%
April 2018| 2797| 43.97%
April 2019| 2760| 45.90%
April 2020| 4027|

Sorry OP, I don't get where you're getting the extra 1000 people/month from. Seamus Coffey's graph shows only an extra 50 or so people a week dying compared to previous years.

KCross

Skyfloater wrote: »

Sorry OP, I don't get where you're getting the extra 1000 people/month from. Seamus Coffey's graph shows only an extra 50 or so people a week dying compared to previous years.

Are you referring to this....
https://twitter.com/seamuscoffey/status/1248216109356113920?s=20

I think you might be misinterpreting his "... and rising by c.5 per day" comment?


The key stat is that the 7-day average for 2020 is now c.45 notices/day higher than the average for the equivalent periods in 2016-20

45 per day for a month matches the OPs table where there is approx 1300 extra postings projected to rip.ie.