Price Reductions during Covid19

the_syco

lawrencesummers wrote: »

The biggest savings might be in picking up a new house, that’s soon to be finished where the builder has to get the show on the Road post lockdown. Their asking price might be subject to a low bid.

I'm in Leixlip. Two estate nearby getting built. There's a few houses that were not tiled before total lockdown. Heck, just before total lockdown, builders were trying to tile as many houses as possible, social distancing be damned! So, some houses may be okay, but some houses... I'd have your surveyor pay attention to the roof section underneath the tiles. It may be fine, but there'll be a few houses with the untiled roofs open to the elements. Not sure if it'd do any damage. Getting those cheap would probably cost you more in the long run!

duffman13 wrote: »

The fear seems everything is going to be slow following this pandemic.

Would it affect people if they were not employed during the COVID19 time, before giving them a mortgage? As many may be going back to their old job, but going from unemployment back to their old job; would that be considered a new job, or not?

lawrencesummers wrote: »

The British will try and blame as much as possible on this to take away from the harm Brexit is doing to their economy.

The EU will probably assist us. I wonder will the UK be left to flounder?

davedub2015

Have heard of a few people ask cor 20 to 30k of this week and vendors thinking about it. People starting to ask now as time goes on

Ozark707

davedub2015 wrote: »

Have heard of a few people ask cor 20 to 30k of this week and vendors thinking about it. People starting to ask now as time goes on

Is it possible to say what is the value, if it is in the 300-350k range then a 30k reduction is sizeable but if it is for something like 800k then it is nothing really.

lomb

Gdp loss could he 40 percent in 2020 bit demand will return with a vengence come 2021 as long as the system is backstopped by the central banks.

Hubertj

lomb wrote: »

Gdp loss could he 40 percent in 2020 bit demand will return with a vengence come 2021 as long as the system is backstopped by the central banks.

So does that the prices reductions will be a sharp decline this year and then level out in 2021?

In 2008 was the decline not over a longer period of time?

Ozark707

Hubertj wrote: »

So does that the prices reductions will be a sharp decline this year and then level out in 2021?

In 2008 was the decline not over a longer period of time?

Much longer period, approx 07-11. Lots of people lost lots of money by only gradually reducing their price, following the market. Question is whether committed sellers remember this and drop the price quicker this time.

Rainmann

Ozark707 wrote: »

Much longer period, approx 07-11. Lots of people lost lots of money by only gradually reducing their price, following the market. Question is whether committed sellers remember this and drop the price quicker this time.

It's a totally different situation to 2008 though. The speculation was insane and the finance been given to people was insane, anyone with a pulse was getting a mortgage at a high multiple of their income, currently for the majority of people 3.5 times your income in the maximum you can get. Also, in 2008 it was a property/ banking crisis, with banks having to be bailed out/nationalized, NAMA etc. Banks are well capitalized and while they will be cautious, they will continue to lend giving those who are in a position to buy property the ability to buy. Yes, the economy as a whole will take a massive hit and this will obviously affect demand, but with the ECB printing money like crazy, it's very likely that the economy will bounce back relatively quickly. If I had to put money on it, in Dublin, property prices will react and prices will gradually be pushed down over the coming months and will start to rise again this time next year. There is a big undersupply of property in Dublin, I think the rest of the country will lag behind.

Ozark707

Rainmann wrote: »

If I had to put money on it, in Dublin, property prices will react and prices will gradually be pushed down over the coming months and will start to rise again this time next year. There is a big undersupply of property in Dublin, I think the rest of the country will lag behind.

If that was the case then why are prices in part of Dublin back at levels in Dec 17 for example?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113197572&postcount=4635

Prices had dropped pre Covid anyway, Covid is just going to accelerate this. Maybe they will undershoot and then come back somewhat.

Rainmann

Ozark707 wrote: »

If that was the case then why are prices in part of Dublin back at levels in Dec 17 for example?

https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113197572&postcount=4635

Prices had dropped pre Covid anyway, Covid is just going to accelerate this. Maybe they will undershoot and then come back somewhat.

Dublin property prices had been slowing pre-COVID but nothing significant and it depends on the area, many areas were still increasing. Just because prices were leveling doesn't mean there isn't a significant undersupply, just that fewer people are in a position to buy as the prices continue to rise, meaning a reduction in demand. If you can only borrow 3.5 times your income it puts a limit on what you can afford.

James 007

Rainmann wrote: »

It's a totally different situation to 2008 though. The speculation was insane and the finance been given to people was insane, anyone with a pulse was getting a mortgage at a high multiple of their income, currently for the majority of people 3.5 times your income in the maximum you can get. Also, in 2008 it was a property/ banking crisis, with banks having to be bailed out/nationalized, NAMA etc. Banks are well capitalized and while they will be cautious, they will continue to lend giving those who are in a position to buy property the ability to buy. Yes, the economy as a whole will take a massive hit and this will obviously affect demand, but with the ECB printing money like crazy, it's very likely that the economy will bounce back relatively quickly. If I had to put money on it, in Dublin, property prices will react and prices will gradually be pushed down over the coming months and will start to rise again this time next year. There is a big undersupply of property in Dublin, I think the rest of the country will lag behind.

You know what I was thinking the same, is a 5% drop at most realistic over the next year or max 10%, whats your own feeling regarding the % drop.

Ozark707

James 007 wrote: »

You know what I was thinking the same, is a 5% drop at most realistic over the next year or max 10%, whats your own feeling regarding the % drop.

Article here stating that banks are reducing valuations by 10% already. This will feed through soon enough.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-valuations-are-being-reduced-by-10pc-during-the-mortgage-process-due-to-covid-19-according-to-brokers-39136972.html

Rainmann

James 007 wrote: »

You know what I was thinking the same, is a 5% drop at most realistic over the next year or max 10%, whats your own feeling regarding the % drop.

To be honest, it's a total guessing game. It wouldn't surprise me if we saw a 5-15% drop, but who knows really. The big unknown is how long this lockdown will last and will there be additional lockdown creating a stop-start economy. I think once we can return to some kind of normality at least from an economic point of view, the Dublin economy especially is one that will bounce back quickly.

Rainmann

Ozark707 wrote: »

Article here stating that banks are reducing valuations by 10% already. This will feed through soon enough.

https://www.independent.ie/business/personal-finance/property-mortgages/house-valuations-are-being-reduced-by-10pc-during-the-mortgage-process-due-to-covid-19-according-to-brokers-39136972.html

This makes a lot of sense, I had read something similar in another paper today. From a risk perspective, banks want to avoid a person going into negative equity then losing their job, then maybe the bank is stuck with a property worth less than the loan. I definitely agree that we are in for a drop in prices, I just think given the market conditions, it will be much shorter-lived than the one in 2009.

Zenify

Rainmann wrote: »

given the market conditions, it will be much shorter-lived than the one in 2009.

In Dublin the condition was prices already falling before Covid-19...?

Ozark707

Zenify wrote: »

In Dublin the condition was prices already falling before Covid-19...?

Exactly! Amazing the amount of posters on here who are unaware of that.

Rainmann

Zenify wrote: »

In Dublin the condition was prices already falling before Covid-19...?

Prices were stabilizing, increasing still in many areas of Dublin. A massive shortage of residential property.

Jjohnrockk

Rainmann wrote: »

Prices were stabilizing, increasing still in many areas of Dublin. A massive shortage of residential property.

I have not seen an increase in short run. Please do share an example. Will be interesting.

Jjohnrockk

Ozark707 wrote: »

Exactly! Amazing the amount of posters on here who are unaware of that.

Agree. Also prices are super inflated. People should raise a voice. Strange a city with no metro, poor transport, expensive utilities and highest taxes, rents and houses are so damn expensive.

Snow Garden

Rainmann wrote: »

This makes a lot of sense, I had read something similar in another paper today. From a risk perspective, banks want to avoid a person going into negative equity then losing their job, then maybe the bank is stuck with a property worth less than the loan. I definitely agree that we are in for a drop in prices, I just think given the market conditions, it will be much shorter-lived than the one in 2009.

This economic depression will be way worse than 2008-2012. Way worse. Across the board, across the world. How are people not seeing this? There will be records levels of unemployment for several years.

Jjohnrockk

Snow Garden wrote: »

This economic depression will be way worse than 2008-2012. Way worse. Across the board, across the world. How are people not seeing this? There will be records levels of unemployment for several years.

All agree except for greedy LL. They will still demand 45 D notice.

Caranica

Jjohnrockk wrote: »

All agree except for greedy LL. They will still demand 45 D notice.

The notice periods are set out in law and are dependent on length of stay. A shorter notice period can be mutually agreed. Nothing greedy about being legally compliant.

Edgware

Jjohnrockk wrote: »

All agree except for greedy LL. They will still demand 45 D notice.

These notice periods were introduced because of demand from Threshold etc. It is the law. If its tough on tenants now they know who to blame. They cant have it both ways.
I know "Its not fair Joe"