It's not the economy, it's our way of life.

ILoveYourVibes

trapp wrote: »

In fairness what you say is correct.

But my original post considers the human effects of a lockdown lasting a long time, into 2021 perhaps.

And these effects would be grave.

It will.

But but the virus isn't going to wash through the population once then stop. People will get reinfected and reinfected. Natural immunity for some diseases can take generations. And things like natural immunity or passive immunity are always only temporary. Meaning you would only be immune for a week or so.

You don't get the same cold/flu virus a week later ..but you will get it months later.

trapp

10000maniacs wrote: »

I think its a small price to pay to save the lives of 100,000 Irish people.
Let the virus rip and that is what's going to happen.

A small price to pay??

That our children will never go to school or make friends or play with each other?

That families will be seperated for years?

Nobody is suggesting letting the virus rip.

But perhaps we could go outside 2km in time?

Perhaps our children could return to school?

Perhaps people could meet their friends and family?

Not much point in saving your granny if she sits inside on her own all day waving at you through the window for 3 years before dying anyway.

There has to be a middle ground somehow.

ShineOn7

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

14 died today of Covid 19. The normal death rate is 90+ a day. CSO figures first quarter 2019 8674

Jesus Christ

This is as bad as people on Facebook comparing Covid figures to TB

One thing is not like the other

ILoveYourVibes

trapp wrote: »

A small price to pay??

That our children will never go to school or make friends or play with each other?

That families will be seperated for years?

Nobody is suggesting letting the virus rip.

But perhaps we could go outside 2km in time?

Perhaps our children could return to school?

Perhaps people could meet their friends and family?

Not much point in saving your granny if she sits inside on her own all day waving at you through the window for 3 years before dying anyway.

There has to be a middle ground somehow.

We are asking you to do it for a year.

Kids have years in front of them.

LiquidZeb

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

We are asking you to do it for a year.

Kids have years in front of them.

Yeah but it's a really really really big ask isn't it?

Xertz

Well the alternative is you let it rip through the population. It’s highly contagious and can be extremely debilitating for weeks, even in mild forms. So basically the entire supply chain based economy, which we are currently protecting with social distancing, would potentially just fall apart.

This thing is extremely serious. Do you seriously think western capitalism would suddenly decide to put itself into an induced coma for nothing?

LiquidZeb

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Yeah but it's a really really really big ask isn't it?

Not as bad as being nuked.

LiquidZeb

Xertz wrote: »

Well the alternative is you let it rip through the population. It’s highly contagious and can be extremely debilitating for weeks, even in mild forms. So basically the entire supply chain based economy, which we are currently protecting with social distancing, would potentially just fall apart.

This thing is extremely serious. Do you seriously think western capitalism would suddenly decide to put itself into an induced coma for nothing?

Yeah but how long can that coma last for before things fall apart?

ShineOn7

Xertz wrote: »

I’d look at it as preserving our way of life, not threatening it.

If we just let this virus run riot through the population loads of people would die, the health services would melt down entirely and you could be looking at even worse social outcomes both in terms of death toll and even break down of society and probably economically too.

This is absolutely not a situation without an end. The lock down has a defined purpose. Think of it as a fire break. The virus cannot exist without hosts as it needs our cells to reproduce. So if we do this for a time it should begin to reduce exponentially.

At present we have no other tools to deal with this. Until we have vaccines and effective drug regimens, we are basically stuck with modern versions of old fashioned Florence Nightingale nursing approaches. All we are doing is what they did in the days of polio and TB epidemics - supportive medicine like oxygen therapy and mechanical ventilation, giving our immune systems the best chance they have of defeating a virus. That’s not exactly high tech medicine that we have become used to.

When the drugs and vaccines do arrive, and I suspend the drugs will be repurposed or slightly modified existing ones, then we will have tools and this changes dramatically.

Until then all we have is the simple tools of social distancing and hygiene measures.

It’s not pleasant and it’s far from ideal, but when we only have those tools to prevent huge damage to our population and society, what else can we do?

We urgently need (and they are being worked on rapidly) technical solutions to this.

Superb post

https://media.giphy.com/media/Rgn6cUfaN5zW/giphy.gif

LiquidZeb

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Not as bad as being nuked.

No the world economy will be in ruins, people's personal and professional lives will be in tatters and god knows what else. But other than that tickety boo.

ILoveYourVibes

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Yeah but it's a really really really big ask isn't it?

Its not really an 'ask' ..its just something we have to do.

You don't want to do it. I get it.

Neither do i.

Kids won't remember this. And they seem fine right now. Better than the adults. And tis the first time people seem to care about disadvantaged kids.

I mean they were disadvantaged before the virus.

This seems more about you and trapp and your experience than anything.

Even if the govt didn't ask you to do it ..would you be out right now?

ILoveYourVibes

LiquidZeb wrote: »

No the world economy will be in ruins, people's personal and professional lives will be in tatters and god knows what else. But other than that tickety boo.

We know. That is us too.

I am in the same position.

LiquidZeb

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Its not really an 'ask' ..its just something we have to do.

You don't want to do it. I get it.

Neither do i.

Kids won't remember this. And they seem fine right now. Better than the adults. And tis the first time people seem to care about disadvantaged kids.

I mean they were disadvantaged before the virus.

This seems more about you and trapp and your experience than anything.

Even if the govt didn't ask you to do it ..would you be out right now?

Well no if the economy falls apart it affects everyone of us. It's worse than just a few nights out or whatever you mean by my experience. If you yourself honestly have no problem being locked up under glorified house arrest more power to you.

Xertz

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Yeah but how long can that coma last for before things fall apart?

If it’s a managed coma, as long as it takes to balance the situation out.
A lot of the economy absolutely is not shut down: food production, logistics, a lot of aspects of businesses, manufacturing, telecoms, IT services, banking, retail, etc —- many things are still up and running.

This is going to be about a balancing act. Hopefully this lock down causes an exponential decrease in cases and people sticking to social distancing will allow some things to open up.

We aren’t going to see high risk stuff like pubs and big crowded events for some time, and I would suspect things like educational institutions will have to make do with “blended learning” for a while, but if done right, things keep ticking over. I don’t see for example why universities couldn’t spend a few months doing things with a mixture of low density labs etc where people have to be physically present and use online learning where they don’t need to be physically present. It’s been successfully done for many, many years in distance and blended learning programmes anyway. There’s loads of experience of it

There’s going to have to be risk mitigation until we get to the stage we gave a vaccine and a technical solution. The unfortunate reality is we do not have the tools to manage this yet. They’re hopefully in their way fast, but this is the limit of modern medicine and we’ve taken a lot of quick fixes for granted.

In the future we also face enormous risks with things like other viruses but also know threats like antibiotic and drug resistant bacteria for example, an issue we haven’t taken even remotely as seriously as we should have. If that becomes a huge issue in the years or decades ahead, you could end up with a situation where we’ve pandemic type scenarios with bacterial infections and also rendering a lot of surgery and things like chemo etc too dangerous to do.

What’s shocking about this is it shows we’ve been caught with our guard down - right across the whole planet and that our focus on high profit driven drugs research has caused us to be way off the mark on planning for risks - R&D on boring things like Coronaviruses and pandemic prevention has been largely seen as pointless.

We need a massive collective rethink about how we avoid something like this ever happening again, and that probably means spending as much as many heavily armed states currently spend on military systems and weaponry on R&D and preventative medicine strategies. If we don’t learn those lessons now, we will be back here again, and again.

ILoveYourVibes

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

And tis the first time people seem to care about disadvantaged kids.

I mean they were disadvantaged before the virus.

Spot on, Vibes.

AllForIt

Jenbach110 wrote: »

I think one can suggest that the economy is the reason for life as we know it.

Without it we go back to only the strongest survive.

Well, we'd have to all go back to farming if there was no economy. And even then we would trade. No getting away from it.

ILoveYourVibes

LiquidZeb wrote: »

If you yourself honestly have no problem being locked up under glorified house arrest more power to you.

Of course I do.


But I dont want to die. I don't want to risk putting my parents in that position. I don't want to spread it to people i don't even know.

There isn't any human interaction that is more important to me than my own life and health.

I can make more money after this. I can hopefully still do my exams.

I can't do those things if i am one of the ones to die can i?

LiquidZeb

AllForIt wrote: »

Well, we'd have to all go back to farming if there was no economy. And even then we would trade. Hence, economy. No getting away from it.

So we return to serfdom then? If I wasn't depressed before I certainly am now.

trapp

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Of course I do.


But I dont want to die. I don't want to risk putting my parents in that position. I don't want to spread it to people i don't even know.

There isn't any human interaction that is more important to me than my own life and health.

I can make more money after this. I can hopefully still do my exams.

I can't do those things if i am one of the ones to die can i?

So you can act as you choose.

However the rest of us can, while limiting the transmission of the virus as much as possible, hopefully get into the world, overcome our fear and live as best we can.

We're all going to die anyway sometime.

As I've said in the original post I agree with locking down to save lives in principle.

But how long for?

It could be 2/3/4 years before a safe vaccine if ever.

ShineOn7

Xertz wrote: »

We aren’t going to see high risk stuff like pubs and big crowded events for some time

If you were to guess, how long would you say for both?

The pubs is a very hard one to call. But large events like festivals and 80,000 at Croker etc? I think at least 3 years

trapp

ShineOn7 wrote: »

If you were to guess, how long would you say for both?

The pubs is a very hard one to call. But large events like festivals and 80,000 at Croker etc? I think at least 3 years

Festivals, concerts, matches etc not until a vaccine.

End of major football as we know it.

End of life as we know it.

But we should still, in time, try and live as best we can.

Sitting in lockdown until a vaccine would be crazy.

ILoveYourVibes

trapp wrote: »

So you can act as you choose.

However the rest of us can, while limiting the transmission of the virus as much as possible, hopefully get into the world, overcome our fear and live as best we can.

We're all going to die anyway sometime.

How you can you live as best you can if you die?

I really don't get your reasoning. You seem to be saying death is better than this.

Or 'I am prepared to play the lottery with my life'.

trapp

trapp wrote: »

In fairness what you say is correct.

But my original post considers the human effects of a lockdown lasting a long time, into 2021 perhaps.

And these effects would be grave.

A lot of your ponts in the OP such as domestic violence will continue to exist, and could actually increase in some cases due to stress about worrying about contracting covid because restrictions have been reduced and risk increased

Kids are a lot more resilient than people give them credit for and are continuing to do schooling online.

Those in disadvantaged areas weren't considered of much use or of being worthy of concern by those worried about the economy before this hit, and often seen as having things easy. You only have to read some of the threads on here before and since the pandemic to see that and while lifting restrictions might allow them to go to school to get out of this situation, they will still be considered in the same way because it's the way of life for those people to do so.

Xertz

ShineOn7 wrote: »

If you were to guess, how long would you say for both?

The pubs is a very hard one to call. But large events like festivals and 80,000 at Croker etc? I think at least 3 years

My guess, and this is pure speculation, is that it will probably be sometime in 2021 for festivals and full normality. It’s going to depend on technical solutions. For example we may have access to vaccines but we also may have access to antibody tests sooner, which might (still needs to be proven) mean if you’ve had COVID-19 you potentially could be immune to it. That might mean some kind of “immune pass” which could open up travel and so on while the rest of the population waits for a vaccine.

The problem with pubs is that people get drunk in them and unfortunately that means people will get touchy and huggy.

I could see maybe a scenario like venues opening, with very managed social distancing for food, coffee, etc long before pubs.

There’s genuinely a huge risk with people being congregated and drunk. It’s something I love to do and it’s a huge part of our social culture and many others but right now it would be disastrous.

That’s why I think we are looking at a likely phased restoration of normal life. It’s not going to be something that can just be switched back on in one go.

There’s definitely a hierarchy of activities and social venues ranging from low to high risk and it’s just going to take time.

ILoveYourVibes

trapp wrote: »

Sitting in lockdown until a vaccine would be crazy.

You are allowed out daily for exercise a couple of times and to the shops and if you have neighbors you can have a sing song in your gardens.

Maybe you should move in with family for the time being.

trapp

DubInMeath wrote: »

A lot of your ponts in the OP such as domestic violence will continue to exist, and could actually increase in some cases due to stress about worrying about contracting covid because restrictions have been reduced and risk increased

Kids are a lot more resilient than people give them credit for and are continuing to do schooling online.

Those in disadvantaged areas weren't considered of much use or of being worthy of concern by those worried about the economy before this hit, and often seen as having things easy. You only have to read some of the threads on here before and since the pandemic to see that and while lifting restrictions might allow them to go to school to get out of this situation, they will still be considered in the same way because it's the way of life for those people to do so.

The thousands of kids in the inner city, in Tallaght, in Ballymun, in Moyross etc deserve more than that.

Everybody counts or nobody counts.

ILoveYourVibes

DubInMeath wrote: »

A lot of your ponts in the OP such as domestic violence will continue to exist, and could actually increase in some cases due to stress about worrying about contracting covid because restrictions have been reduced and risk increased

Kids are a lot more resilient than people give them credit for and are continuing to do schooling online.

Those in disadvantaged areas weren't considered of much use or of being worthy of concern by those worried about the economy before this hit, and often seen as having things easy. You only have to read some of the threads on here before and since the pandemic to see that and while lifting restrictions might allow them to go to school to get out of this situation, they will still be considered in the same way because it's the way of life for those people to do so.

Suddenly kids with no JC or LC who won't go back next year are being thought of.

'What about their futures ?' Etc.

ILoveYourVibes

Everybody counts or nobody counts

That is why we are doing the lockdown.

Dude ballymun will have much higher fatalities than foxrock you know it i know it.

By the way ..some of the areas you mention ..i have family there.

They are in lockdown.

trapp

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

How you can you live as best you can if you die?

I really don't get your reasoning. You seem to be saying death is better than this.

Or 'I am prepared to play the lottery with my life'.

Personally I'm not scared of dying. And maybe that affects my view.

More scared of the effects of this virus in terms of other people dying and the effects of the lockdown.

trapp

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

That is why we are doing the lockdown.

Dude ballymun will have much higher fatalities than foxrock you know it i know it.

By the way ..some of the areas you mention ..i have family there.

They are in lockdown.

I agree with the lockdown!! for a period of time.

I'm just worrying about the long term impact of a lockdown into next year. Not the economic impact but the human one.

There might never be a vaccine, we can't lock down forever.