Another General election is inevitable when all of this over...

theballz

The very severe and sharp stop in large parts of the economy is likely to see economic activity plummet by a fifth over Q1 and Q2 2020 with the potential to drag into H2. At best 2021 will see sluggish growth, at worst further deflation. Each deflationary test will be met by an air fleet of Keynesian, counter cyclical monetary and fiscal carpet bombing.

Unemployment will rise sharply to swamp a fifth of workforces and despite social welfare buffers and fiscal programmes such as tax suspensions, utility holidays and loan suspensions, consumer savings will deplete to service core lifestyle costs. This will lead to a severe weakening of consumer spending power on the other side until savings are replenished

Social unrest is inevitable especially where social safety nets such as welfare, stamps and food lines are deemed insufficient. This is already evident.

There will need to be another general election, likely Q1 of 2021. It’s difficult one but at present, how do you see that going?

PhilOssophy

No it isn't. FG and FF and a few independents will just get on with it, the people spoke in February this year and won't thank them for thinking another election was needed. What good will a fresh election do? Spend 150m when we won't have 2c to rub together?

The whole world is in the same boat.

Social unrest? To be honest, I think the vast majority of people are showing serious co-operation with these measures. Considering how much people's lives have been altered, I think the vast majority of people have been exemplary.

Yurt2

theballz wrote: »

The very severe and sharp stop in large parts of the economy is likely to see economic activity plummet by a fifth over Q1 and Q2 2020 with the potential to drag into H2. At best 2021 will see sluggish growth, at worst further deflation. Each deflationary test will be met by an air fleet of Keynesian, counter cyclical monetary and fiscal carpet bombing.

Unemployment will rise sharply to swamp a fifth of workforces and despite social welfare buffers and fiscal programmes such as tax suspensions, utility holidays and loan suspensions, consumer savings will deplete to service core lifestyle costs. This will lead to a severe weakening of consumer spending power on the other side until savings are replenished

Social unrest is inevitable especially where social safety nets such as welfare, stamps and food lines are deemed insufficient. This is already evident.

There will need to be another general election, likely Q1 of 2021. It’s difficult one but at present, how do you see that going?

A FF / FG tie-up has an extremely short shelf-life even if there wasn't a crisis. It's only the most extraordinary of circumstances that has forced them into bed together. I doubt there's too many happy campers in either party as the jig is now up with two more or less identical parties trading barbs at each other.

Leo is trying to coax as many of the smaller parties into the coalition to neutralize their election threat when the next polling day rolls around. They'd be fools to do it truth be told. The FG side of the coalition wont be able to resist low-key calling laid off people spongers etc, when they'll be on the scratch through no fault of their own. They had the troika playbook to work off the last time, and just did austerity color by numbers. This option is not available to either FF or FG now.

Smaller vote share for FF / FG next time around again.

piplip87

I think FF/FG/ and others will just get on with it for two or three year tbh.

I think they will steady the ship and possibly try to tackle the housing crisis. This will sort out the mess that it has become plus get people back to work on the sites.

As for the next election it will depend on how SF behave in the next Dail. They still have a fair amount of support with the swing voters but the will not put up with constant winging if SF do vote against everything

Harry Palmr

If a government is formed there will be no pressure to hold an election for a few years precisely because the circumstances are as they are. It'll be a national government by default in the end I suspect.

kippy

The housing crisis is as well as solved if you are to look at what is happening in the housing market and the likely significant impact on tourism for the next few years.
Bigger issues lay ahead but I don't see what another election is going to do.

PhilOssophy

Yurt! wrote: »

A FF / FG tie-up has an extremely short shelf-life even if there wasn't a crisis. It's only the most extraordinary of circumstances that has forced them into bed together. I doubt there's too many happy campers in either party as the jig is now up with two more or less identical parties trading barbs at each other.

Leo is trying to coax as many of the smaller parties into the coalition to neutralize their election threat when the next polling day rolls around. They'd be fools to do it truth be told. The FG side of the coalition wont be able to resist low-key calling laid off people spongers etc, when they'll be on the scratch through no fault of their own. They had the troika playbook to work off the last time, and just did austerity color by numbers. This option is not available to either FF or FG now.

Smaller vote share for FF / FG next time around again.

Funnily, I don't think anyone in any political circle would call those who are laid off spongers.

I also fear, by the time this is all over we'll be heading for another bailout. Along with other EU states. The hole in the public finances could even dwarf the bank bailout.

Edgware

theballz wrote: »

The very severe and sharp stop in large parts of the economy is likely to see economic activity plummet by a fifth over Q1 and Q2 2020 with the potential to drag into H2. At best 2021 will see sluggish growth, at worst further deflation. Each deflationary test will be met by an air fleet of Keynesian, counter cyclical monetary and fiscal carpet bombing.

Unemployment will rise sharply to swamp a fifth of workforces and despite social welfare buffers and fiscal programmes such as tax suspensions, utility holidays and loan suspensions, consumer savings will deplete to service core lifestyle costs. This will lead to a severe weakening of consumer spending power on the other side until savings are replenished

Social unrest is inevitable especially where social safety nets such as welfare, stamps and food lines are deemed insufficient. This is already evident.

There will need to be another general election, likely Q1 of 2021. It’s difficult one but at present, how do you see that going?

This is the left wingers (and alleged left wingers) dream scenario. However the next election will be four years away. The senior hurlers are in for the long haul. We have worked through recessions before and we will work through this one. People will still spend money but wont be spending it in Spain etc. A lot of the small services willget back, hairdressers, coffeeshops, taxis, takeaways. S.F. PBP will of course want to wallow in misery as that is whenthey are happiest

theballz

theballz wrote: »

There will need to be another general election, likely Q1 of 2021. It’s difficult one but at present, how do you see that going?

Why? The people have spoken.

LeinsterDub

Will a FF /FG tie up even happen?

There is a lot of disquiet from the grassroots https://twitter.com/electionlit/status/1249276156546813952

Yurt!

Yurt! wrote: »

A FF / FG tie-up has an extremely short shelf-life even if there wasn't a crisis. It's only the most extraordinary of circumstances that has forced them into bed together. I doubt there's too many happy campers in either party as the jig is now up with two more or less identical parties trading barbs at each other.

Leo is trying to coax as many of the smaller parties into the coalition to neutralize their election threat when the next polling day rolls around. They'd be fools to do it truth be told. The FG side of the coalition wont be able to resist low-key calling laid off people spongers etc, when they'll be on the scratch through no fault of their own. They had the troika playbook to work off the last time, and just did austerity color by numbers. This option is not available to either FF or FG now.

Smaller vote share for FF / FG next time around again.

FF and FG have been in government togethee with lasr 5 years??

I dont see,why it wont last another 5??

,once they bribe the indos enough (cant complain about parish-pump politics anymore though)

LeinsterDub

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Why? The people have spoken.

And when the spoke they mumbled. No harm asking them to repeat themselves

mariaalice

theballz wrote: »

The very severe and sharp stop in large parts of the economy is likely to see economic activity plummet by a fifth over Q1 and Q2 2020 with the potential to drag into H2. At best 2021 will see sluggish growth, at worst further deflation. Each deflationary test will be met by an air fleet of Keynesian, counter cyclical monetary and fiscal carpet bombing.

Unemployment will rise sharply to swamp a fifth of workforces and despite social welfare buffers and fiscal programmes such as tax suspensions, utility holidays and loan suspensions, consumer savings will deplete to service core lifestyle costs. This will lead to a severe weakening of consumer spending power on the other side until savings are replenished

Social unrest is inevitable especially where social safety nets such as welfare, stamps and food lines are deemed insufficient. This is already evident.

There will need to be another general election, likely Q1 of 2021. It’s difficult one but at present, how do you see that going?

Nobody knows outcome of all this so that is nonsence.

Where is the social unreset already happning?

major interest

theballz wrote: »

There will need to be another general election, likely Q1 of 2021. It’s difficult one but at present, how do you see that going?

Assuming a government is formed out of the current talks (not a certainty) then I really don’t see another election for another 4 years at least. If anything, the pandemic makes further elections in the near future less likely. Given the sudden uncertainty that has been brought about in the economy/society, some form of political stability will be sought.

mariaalice

mariaalice wrote: »

Nobody know outcome of all this so that is nonsence.

Where is the social unreset already happning?

Social unrest and talks of it in italy,were a british propaganda effort,(by bbc and sky news) to distract from when the brits were being slated for not going into lockdown.....

It was quietly dropped,when they did

Jinglejangle69

Yurt! wrote: »

A FF / FG tie-up has an extremely short shelf-life even if there wasn't a crisis. It's only the most extraordinary of circumstances that has forced them into bed together. I doubt there's too many happy campers in either party as the jig is now up with two more or less identical parties trading barbs at each other.

Leo is trying to coax as many of the smaller parties into the coalition to neutralize their election threat when the next polling day rolls around. They'd be fools to do it truth be told. The FG side of the coalition wont be able to resist low-key calling laid off people spongers etc, when they'll be on the scratch through no fault of their own. They had the troika playbook to work off the last time, and just did austerity color by numbers. This option is not available to either FF or FG now.

Smaller vote share for FF / FG next time around again.

Zzzzzzzzzz

theballz

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Why? The people have spoken.

True. However, don’t you think the landscape has changed drastically since then?

My feeling is, the people who voted for Sinn Fein may be reconsidering given the current state of the economy.

Could Sinn Fein lead us out of a recession? Is the house crisis still our biggest issue. The answer is No.

Richard Hillman

The dynamics have changed since February. We were voting on somebody to solve the housing crisis and got an inconclusive result.

If we got back to the polls we are voting on dragging the economy out of a black hole. Judging by recent polls, we're going to get a very different result.

Things have changed since February, FF poll scores have fallen off a cliff and tbh i don't think Michael Martin is fit to lead the country. He's too weak and would have rings run around him in Europe. We need strong leadership, whether it be Varadkar, Mcdonald or somebody else from FF. It just can't be Martin.

Yurt2

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Zzzzzzzzzz

That type of sentiment I highlighted in the post is you all day long and you know it.

Eric Cartman

it won't, thankfully, SF can wipe the sweat from their brow knowing they will yet again be able to harp from the opposition benches without having any responsibility for running a country.

Edgware

mariaalice wrote: »

Nobody knows outcome of all this so that is nonsence.

Where is the social unreset already happning?

Correct. Arguing over toilet rolls doesnt equal social unrest

stayback

This government is going to require 90 seats/votes to have a comfortable majority. There will be a few rebels aka john Mcguinness , dev og (Eamon o curio) etc. There will be rebels in both FF/FG. So having the bare 80 won’t be enough. Hard decision and very unpopular decisions will have to be made in the coming years.

I can’t see anything but another election on the horizons when the current crisis is over.

FF got punished in the last election when they facilitated a C&S. imagine what will happen if they go into government FG.

MM will probably split FF if he goes into power with FG. A split they will never come back from. Some in FG aren’t going to be happen to be going back into government.

antimatterx

stayback wrote: »

This government is going to require 90 seats/votes to have a comfortable majority. There will be a few rebels aka john Mcguinness , dev og (Eamon o curio) etc. There will be rebels in both FF/FG. So having the bare 80 won’t be enough. Hard decision and very unpopular decisions will have to be made in the coming years.

I can’t see anything but another election on the horizons when the current crisis is over.

FF got punished in the last election when they facilitated a C&S. imagine what will happen if they go into government FG.

MM will probably split FF if he goes into power with FG. A split they will never come back from. Some in FG aren’t going to be happen to be going back into government.

I'm an FG member. Being honest, most of us would relish another craic at the election. We would wipe the floor with SF/FF this time.

Realistically, we don't care if we're in power or not this time around. FF are going to **** their chance up, and we'll back in power without their help next time around.

Jinglejangle69

Yurt! wrote: »

That type of sentiment I highlighted in the post is you all day long and you know it.

Yeah and?

I've never called people genuinely on the dole through no fault of their own scroungers.

Jusy the self entitled Margaret Cash's of the world and there is many of them in this country.

And you know that.

Jinglejangle69

antimatterx wrote: »

I'm an FG member. Being honest, most of us would relish another craic at the election. We would wipe the floor with SF/FF this time.

Realistically, we don't care if we're in power or not this time around. FF are going to **** their chance up, and we'll back in power without their help next time around.

Don't think FG would wipe the floor.

stayback

antimatterx wrote: »

I'm an FG member. Being honest, most of us would relish another craic at the election. We would wipe the floor with SF/FF this time.

Realistically, we don't care if we're in power or not this time around. FF are going to **** their chance up, and we'll back in power without their help next time around.

Can’t disagree with you there.. at the moment FG are playing a blinder. I think ye will pick up a few extra seats. As soon as this crisis is over I really think we need an election because we are going to need political stability over the next few years.

antimatterx

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Don't think FG would wipe the floor.

We wouldn't get a majority, but we'd comfortably have more seats than FF/SF individually.

antimatterx

stayback wrote: »

Can’t disagree with you there.. at the moment FG are playing a blinder. I think ye will pick up a few extra seats. As soon as this crisis is over I really think we need an election because we are going to need political stability over the next few years.

I would love one, but I don't think it will happen.

willowthewisp

If there was a general election tomorrow (I know it’s not possible in these circumstances) FG would more than likely win hands down, or at least eradicate the SF gains. We haven’t and won’t hear a word from Mary Lou and her band of nobodies until this is all over.
When it is they will throw about accusations about how they could have done a much better job than those who actually stood up to be counted when it mattered.

LuasSimon

Should FF and FG just merge into a new super party to keep out socialists , nationalists , poor people etc out.

A sort of Tory Conservative Irish party model.

stayback

LuasSimon wrote: »

Should FF and FG just merge into a new super party to keep out socialists , nationalists , poor people etc out.

A sort of Tory Conservative Irish party model.

No way!!!!