Is immunity through exposure viable?

AvalonEnaid

Came across an article on breakingnews.ie/covid-19-gp-says-we-must-get-used-to-changes-until-immunity-is-gained-994314.html; where Professor Liam Glynn said: “We all need to get used to the changes, to the physical and social distancing measures until immunity is gained and that will either be through getting the virus and recovering or through a vaccine.”

"through getting the virus and recovering"; Surely this is an extremely dangerous view to take on a virus that is vastly misunderstood and has quite a high kill rate.

A study [1] done in China showed that young people who contracted the virus and recovered showed only tiny amounts of antibody were found in their blood which suggests that our bodies are incapable of sufficiently protecting against future reinfections. While this study is still in preprint and has yet to be peer-reviewed, it would be foolish to disregard it until further studies come out.

Another study [2] on the mutation properties of viruses published by the American Society for Microbiology shows that flu liked RNA viruses mutate 100 times faster than DNA based viruses although Covid-19 is showing a slower rate of mutation. The scary thing is that the virus has already mutated while it spread from Wuhan over to the rest of the world [3]. By giving this virus people to infect (deliberately or indeliberately) we're giving it thousands of opportunities to mutate.

My last point is the kill rate of this virus. Worldometers [4] shows that out of the 656,515 (at the time of writing) CLOSED cases, 21% of those resulted in death. I do not care about the total number of infections or active cases, they're still going through the motions of the infection and I wish them all the best and hope they don't become a part of that 21%. While people under 40 are shown to be fairly resilient against the virus it does not bode well for those over that age or as the juicemedia video so eloquently put it "Not caring about the Elderly or being an arsehole".

I do hope the Chinese study got it wrong and our bodies are capable of developing antibodies to combat the virus, until then, stay safe.

Best I can do for sources is to provide the Google search terms:
[1] "medrxiv undetectable positive RNA test"
[2] "jvi.asm.org Complexities of Viral Mutation Rates"
[3] "nextstrain.org Global subsampling" <- World map shows the various strains being tracked.
[4] "worldometers.info coronavirus"

ILoveYourVibes

Passive immunity ....when you get antibodies artificially or from breastfeeding.

They get antibodies from others. They might even be able to make them. Although antibodies don't necessarily mean you are immune. Its called plasma therapy.

Also if you just have had covid they might be able to take antibodies from you just after when you have the most and save them as your body will make less as time goes on and your body becomes less immune.

CtevenSrowder

It's more viable then continuing on as we are until we hopefully get a vaccine.

listermint

Are new misinformation accounts viable ??

AvalonEnaid

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Passive immunity ....when you get antibodies artificially or from breastfeeding.

They get antibodies from others. They might even be able to make them. Although antibodies don't necessarily mean you are immune. Its called plasma therapy.

Also if you just have had covid they might be able to take antibodies from you just after when you have the most and save them as your body will make less as time goes on and your body becomes less immune.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying do not try it and it would be amazing if this actually works but more studies must definitely be done to determine its viability. At the moment my concern is less than knowledgable people pushing it as *the solution* when they have no real science to back it up. It becomes even more concerning when the Executive Director of Health Emergencies Programme of the W.H.O says "With regards to recovery and then re-infection, I believe we do not have the answers to that. That is an unknown," [1] In that same video, Dr Maria Van Kerkhove references the same paper I noted in my original post [2].

Let's exercise some caution before claiming it to be the miracle cure.

My own opinion on this matter is that governments need to focus their countries resources into dramatically upscaling its medical facilities. That will at the very least get us into a better position to deal with the virus while at the same time give testing facilities more time to focus on doing their science bit.

Sources:
[1] "youtube CNBC Television Coronavirus: Unclear if recovered coronavirus patients are immune to second infection" <= Watch the video.
[2] "medrxiv undetectable positive RNA test"

---

On a humorous note: Can you imagine a whole warehouse of young people strapped to chairs being farmed for their antibodies? Reminds me of an episode from The 100 TV series.

listermint wrote: »

Are new misinformation accounts viable ??

You've posted so many credible sources countering my post that I did not have to waste any time reading them. Thanks.

El_Duderino 09

Yeah i think we need Immunity one way or the other. Either a vaccine or surviving the disease.

If it turn out that we can't get Immunity then the options are to hunker down and wait for a vaccine or lift restrictions to some extent, accept that transmissions will rise and endure the slaughter that ensues. Those are the options.

More research needed.

alwald

listermint wrote: »

Are new misinformation accounts viable ??

What misinformation are you talking about? Everything mentioned is from a verifiable source and bang on the money.

Just to reassure you on one point the fatality rate isn't anything like 21%. Lots of countries a) only test or mostly test people who are already quite ill and b) don't close off cases quickly or at all.

The best guess based on various bits of research and data is still below 1%, but of course we are learning all the time.

WRT the studies on immunity, it is important to remember that the general scientific consensus is that exposure SHOULD deliver immunity, so any research findings to the contrary are going to be 'man bites dog' in news terms and get a lot of exposure. The consensus is still that exposure will give immunity, although how long for is another matter and we can't know that yet.

I think for large parts of western Europe, and probably large parts of the US and developing world, the argument is academic at this point. In Ireland we might have a chance of controlling things and waiting for a vaccine, others are probably past that stage.

Glenbhoy

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Yeah i think we need Immunity one way or the other. Either a vaccine or surviving the disease.

If it turn out that we can't get Immunity then the options are to hunker down and wait for a vaccine or lift restrictions to some extent, accept that transmissions will rise and endure the slaughter that ensues. Those are the options.

More research needed.

Can we get a vaccine if immunity doesn't exist?
Is that not what a vaccine does, it pretends to the body that it has the disease, so that when we do get it, the body remembers and antibodies do their job?

El_Duderino 09

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Can we get a vaccine if immunity doesn't exist?
Is that not what a vaccine does, it pretends to the body that it has the disease, so that when we do get it, the body remembers and antibodies do their job?

Maybe not. It would presumably have to be a very specialised type of vaccine and less likely to ever be discovered if immunity isn’t gained through surviving the disease.

More research needed.

One thing that people haven’t discussed is the possible that humanity won’t survive this disease. Or it could come back every year, spread and tear through society and kill 2-4% of the population each year. Until eventually the ones who survive are the ones with less susceptibility to the disease. Who knows?

normanoffside

Glenbhoy wrote: »

Can we get a vaccine if immunity doesn't exist?
Is that not what a vaccine does, it pretends to the body that it has the disease, so that when we do get it, the body remembers and antibodies do their job?

Aren't vaccines actually a (clinically proven to be safe) mild dose of the disease?
Enough to get your body to produce anti-bodies but not enough to do serious damage.

So basically if we can't get immunity by having had and survived the disease itself then vaccines won't work.

That's my limited understanding of how it works.
Happy for someone to correct me if wrong.

Hamsterchops

AvalonEnaid wrote: »

Is immunity through exposure viable?

Possibly, probably?

Too soon to say for sure, I would imagine. I mean it would be a great comfort to those who've had it to know for sure that they cannot catch this particular strain ever again

DrSpongeBobz

Only countries that will produce a vaccine are China,America maybe Germany.Imagine there will be huge debate which one actually works the best.

mulbot

DrSpongeBobz wrote: »

Only countries that will produce a vaccine are China,America maybe Germany.Imagine there will be huge debate which one actually works the best.

Whichever one Bill Gates has the most money invested in I'd say

El_Duderino 09

Immunity isn't as strait forward as we might have hoped. The WHO says there's no evidence that surviving the disease gives Immunity. It's not conclusive one way or the other but it's not ideal news either.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-no-evidence-that-covid-19-survivors-have-immunity-who-warns-11975011

biko

I was just going to post that.

Dire news and a kick in the teeth of the "herd immunity" ambitions.

MadYaker

I'm not sure if it is really a viable option until have loads of these antibody tests to test everyone. At the moment we haven't got enough info. We don't know how long people are immune for and there's lots of conflicting flying around because as far as I can find out the scientists haven't really established the facts in that regard.

MadYaker

The Italians are conducting a case study on a isolated village of 3000 people thats been completely locked down for weeks and weeks, nobody in or out. They are testing everyone and are going to test for immunity as well. 3000 people is good sample size, they can get meaningful data from that and hopefully give us some info over the next few weeks. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/18/scientists-say-mass-tests-in-italian-town-have-halted-covid-19

Fann Linn

'Only about 10% of Italians have developed corona virus antibodies, meaning that herd immunity is far from being reached and the concept of immunity passports is unfeasible, the head of the civil protection Agency said. 'That target is far off'Silvio Brusaferro said.
As quoted from this morning's Times.

moonage

biko wrote: »

I was just going to post that.

Dire news and a kick in the teeth of the "herd immunity" ambitions.

It's hardly dire news or a kick in the teeth to the herd immunity approach if it's as yet unknown whether infection confers immunity.

biko

moonage wrote: »

It's hardly dire news or a kick in the teeth to the herd immunity approach if it's as yet unknown whether infection confers immunity.

I don't know what the WHO saying there is no evidence that you become immune after recovering, sounds like to you.
To me it sounds like there is nothing saying you won't get infected again.

Neither you nor I are immune against other Corona viruses, but you say we will become immune against this one?

CtevenSrowder

biko wrote: »

I don't know what the WHO saying there is no evidence that you become immune after recovering, sounds like to you.
To me it sounds like there is nothing saying you won't get infected again.

Neither you nor I are immune against other Corona viruses, but you say we will become immune against this one?

We can obtain immunity from some Corona viruses having had them. The point is there is no concrete evidence one way or the other with this one. So I'd argue that it's not a kick in the teeth either.

normanoffside

biko wrote: »

I don't know what the WHO saying there is no evidence that you become immune after recovering, sounds like to you.
To me it sounds like there is nothing saying you won't get infected again.

Neither you nor I are immune against other Corona viruses, but you say we will become immune against this one?

Again I'll repeat: If that's the case then there'll be no vaccine so we may as well just get on with it.

eleventh

AvalonEnaid wrote:

"through getting the virus and recovering"; Surely this is an extremely dangerous view to take on a virus that is vastly misunderstood ...

Something being "vastly misunderstood" - doesn't make it "dangerous".

(They do pretend to understand it though, in fairly important contexts such as deciiding to shut down economies , restrict movement, etc).

El_Duderino 09

biko wrote: »

I was just going to post that.

Dire news and a kick in the teeth of the "herd immunity" ambitions.

Yeah. If we can’t get herd immunity through either a vaccine or surviving the disease, then what? I suppose we would either stay in lockdown or go back to relative normality (with social distancing) and just accept that we can all get it time and time again over a lifetime.

The health service will need to grow it's capacity to deal with the permanently increased demand plus carry out its normal business and people will just have to become used to the fact that it's a killer disease.

MadYaker

Im not the buying the no immunity thing just yet. Studies from Italy, California and Netherlands are pointing towards the vast majority being immune after recovery.

Strazdas

biko wrote: »

I was just going to post that.

Dire news and a kick in the teeth of the "herd immunity" ambitions.

One theory I've heard elsewhere in the last day or so is that those asymptomatic people who contract the virus and quickly repel it may be producing nowhere near enough antibodies to be immune.

This would be bad news. People assuming from the antibody test they must be immune and they are not immune at all and are wide open to contracting the virus again.

Sconsey

normanoffside wrote: »

Again I'll repeat: If that's the case then there'll be no vaccine so we may as well just get on with it.

That's not the case. Regardless of whether some people do not produce antibodies after the infection has cleared, or the question of how long other people continue to create antibodies after infection, a vaccine can still be created and be effective.

Unfortunately though, it now appears (in my opinion) that everyone may need a vaccine (regardless of past infection) and possibly need regular boosters to encourage continued production of antibodies.

There are still a lot of unknowns...why are some people not producing antibodies post infection? how long does the immune system continue to produce antibodies? we don't know, and it's going to take time to figure out.

moonage

Maybe some good news here:

But when it comes to SARS-CoV-2, “because this is such a new infection, we’re not sure how long those antibodies hang around for,” says Dr. Seema Yasmin, director of the Stanford Health Communication Initiative.

Our best bet may be to compare it to the original SARS coronavirus, SARS-CoV. In patients infected with this virus, antibody levels peaked between two and four months after infection and offered protection for two to three years. “I think the glimmer of hope might be that there’s so much genetic similarity between SARS-CoV-2 and SARS-CoV,” adds Yasmin.

https://www.wired.com/story/covid-19-immunity/

Strazdas

Sconsey wrote: »

That's not the case. Regardless of whether some people do not produce antibodies after the infection has cleared, or the question of how long other people continue to create antibodies after infection, a vaccine can still be created and be effective.

Unfortunately though, it now appears (in my opinion) that everyone may need a vaccine (regardless of past infection) and possibly need regular boosters to encourage continued production of antibodies.

There are still a lot of unknowns...why are some people not producing antibodies post infection? how long does the immune system continue to produce antibodies? we don't know, and it's going to take time to figure out.

This could be down to the level of infection. If you have only low exposure to the virus, perhaps you don't need to produce many antibodies.

The one good thing I suppose is that we should have far more information on immunity in coming months......there is a frenzied amount of research underway worldwide.

steve-o

El_Duderino 09 wrote: »

Immunity isn't as strait forward as we might have hoped. The WHO says there's no evidence that surviving the disease gives Immunity. It's not conclusive one way or the other but it's not ideal news either.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-no-evidence-that-covid-19-survivors-have-immunity-who-warns-11975011

Sky and many other media outlets, including RTE, have completely misunderstood what the WHO have said. Dr van Kerkhove said "Right now, we have no evidence that the use of a serological test can show that an individual has immunity or is protected from reinfection". She was talking about the accuracy/absence of tests, not whether someone actually has immunity or not.

If you have recovered from any virus, you have developed immunity. How long that immunity lasts (days, months, years) is not known.