Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

keynes

caveat emptor wrote: »

We are currently >100 per million for reference.

https://twitter.com/R_H_Ebright/status/1252225045071527936?s=20

And these are the relevant comparisons for an island like Ireland with a small population and low density---not the UK or Spain or Italy or US. We had a government that was completely reactive from the outset and even now has no plan, no vision, no nothing

political analyst

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity-may-take-multiple-waves-of-infection-study-1.4232873

According to research by a team led by Irish scientist Dr Rosalyn Moran at King's College in London, Ireland and other European countries are at risk of multiple waves of infection until the population develops possible herd immunity.

There could be at least 3 further outbreaks in Ireland after the current one ends.

But the number of subsequent waves could increase to nine under a different forecasting model used in the study that assumed fewer people were infected in the first wave due to more effective social distancing.

Herd immunity, the proportion of the population that needs to be immune to a disease to interrupt its transmission, is assumed at 60 per cent in the study.

Dr Moran said:

The notion that the first wave of infection is close to its peak begs the question of whether future peaks or ‘second waves’ are likely. We sought to determine the current size of susceptible population for seven European countries, to estimate immunity levels following this first wave. We compare these numbers to the total population sizes of these countries, in order to investigate the potential for future peaks.

The authors say there is a trade-off between the size of the susceptible population and the length of a cycle of infection, and they say it is possible specific populations within an outbreak area could reach potential herd immunity after the current cycle.

The research has not yet been peer reviewed and the authors acknowledge it was conducted “with haste” due to the current crisis.

Downlinz

Doyler99 wrote: »

When the lock down ends in 2 weeks, can someone explain to me how the virus will spread then? Would it not have burned itself out by then? I don't see how someone will get infected?

In China and Singapore it was re-introduced by those travelling from countries at a different place in the curve or with less stringent restrictions.

bekker

More encouraging news from Cork

Cork nursing home piloting software to detect early Covid-19 warning symptoms
https://www.echolive.ie/corknews/Cork-nursing-home-piloting-software-to-detect-early-Covid-19-warning-symptoms-6be4054e-839e-4bf5-8d5b-0d2318baba0c-ds

Achasanai

Eircom_Sucks wrote: »

Sorry if asked before

Any word on todays numbers ?

Infected and deaths

Your best bet for the figures would be to try online newspapers or RTÉ first. They'll have them the second they're released.

An Ciarraioch

5.30, according to Richard Chambers.

fritzelly

caveat emptor wrote: »

We are currently >100 per million for reference.

https://twitter.com/R_H_Ebright/status/1252225045071527936?s=20

What an idiot - do you go out to actively find these so called experts?

Flu can kill more than 10 per million and we have a vaccine for it

secman

Just found out that a colleague's wife who works in a NH has proved positive to covid 19, he was in work 3 days last week. He was contacted today by a Tracer, was simply asked if he is displaying symptoms, he said No and was told to just restrict his movements ! Tracer never asked if he was in work and it never dawned on the colleague to tell the Tracer he was in work for 3 days last week. The same guy was out of work mid March due to very high fever , severe headaches and was awaiting a test but never got one. We stood him down for a full 3 weeks on the off chance he had it. When he came back to work i happened to ask him how he and his wife coped with isolation from each other in the house, what routine did they adapt etc.. he just looked at me and said they carried on normally and she continued to go to work in a NH.
Mind boggles, between him , his wife and the Tracer..not much evidence of grey matter between the 3 sets of ears .... it's no wonder NH patient's were so badly affected.
Just in case the colleague was wondering about the parameters of restriction of movement i clearly told him to Stay the Fcuk at home and Stay the Fcuk away from the office for at least 14 days from today.

In case anyone is wondering why we are partially open , we are on a contract to complete a NH for HSE.

New Home

secman wrote: »

Just found out that a colleague's wife who works in a NH has proved positive to covid 19, he was in work 3 days last week. He was contacted today by a Tracer, was simply asked if he is displaying symptoms, he said No and was told to just restrict his movements ! Tracer never asked if he was in work and it never dawned on the colleague to tell the Tracer he was in work for 3 days last week. The same guy was out of work mid March due to very high fever , severe headaches and was awaiting a test but never got one. We stood him down for a full 3 weeks on the off chance he had it. When he came back to work i happened to ask him how he and his wife coped with isolation from each other in the house, what routine did they adapt etc.. he just looked at me and said they carried on normally and she continued to go to work in a NH.
Mind boggles, between him , his wife and the Tracer..not much evidence of grey matter between the 3 sets of ears .... it's no wonder NH patient's were so badly affected.
Just in case the colleague was wondering about the parameters of restriction of movement i clearly told him to Stay the Fcuk at home and Stay the Fcuk away from the office for at least 14 days from today.

In case anyone is wondering why we are partially open , we are on a contract to complete a NH for HSE.

And that's why I have zero faith in humankind. So many "weakest links" around, zero common sense or logic. You just need one person to wreck everyone else's efforts.

celt262

secman wrote: »

Just found out that a colleague's wife who works in a NH has proved positive to covid 19, he was in work 3 days last week. He was contacted today by a Tracer, was simply asked if he is displaying symptoms, he said No and was told to just restrict his movements ! Tracer never asked if he was in work and it never dawned on the colleague to tell the Tracer he was in work for 3 days

That's pretty standard from tracer.

Gael23

I think gyms and leisure centers are finished. There are so many online classes going for a fraction of the price you don’t need a gym

Gael23

Gael23 wrote: »

I think gyms and leisure centers are finished. There are so many online classes going for a fraction of the price you don’t need a gym

Not all of us are privileged to have exercise machines at home. They'll be back.

Westernyelp

Gael23 wrote:

I think gyms and leisure centers are finished. There are so many online classes going for a fraction of the price you don’t need a gym

You never really needed a gym. You could always exercise yourself for free. People like the whole Gym experience.

Cork Boy 53

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Is the 'lock down' ending in 2 weeks?

Many posters here seem to be under the impression that it will be.

wakka12

Gael23 wrote: »

I think gyms and leisure centers are finished. There are so many online classes going for a fraction of the price you don’t need a gym

Well I will be back. I really miss the gym and think it is completely worth the price, the amount of money youd have to spend on a variety of home weights to build up strength and muscle is too much and also too bulky for the size of most people's homes. Also just being in a room with other people exercising is motivating for me.

Roger_007

Deleted User wrote: »

Not all of us are privileged to have exercise machines at home. They'll be back.

We’ve all got a top of the range exercise machine.....it’s called the human body. Why would anyone believe that in order to take exercise that you need a machine of some kind.

cloudatlas

joe40 wrote: »

Where did this plan come from. It seems overly optimistic to me.

It came from the Daily Mail via some source in the government, it's safe to say ye can ignore it.

stephenjmcd

wakka12 wrote: »

Well I will be back. I really miss the gym and think it is completely worth the price

Likewise, 25 a month completely worth it

Roger_007

Roger_007 wrote: »

We’ve all got a top of the range exercise machine.....it’s called the human body. Why would anyone believe that in order to take exercise that you need a machine of some kind.

Sure why would you need to go to a golf course to play golf. Just go to the driving range. Same thing.

tony1980

Roger_007 wrote: »

We’ve all got a top of the range exercise machine.....it’s called the human body. Why would anyone believe that in order to take exercise that you need a machine of some kind.

I can’t fit a pool in my house unfortunately...

Quantum Erasure

Pablo Escobar wrote: »

Because the virus is still circulating even at a rate below an R0 of 1.

And when restrictions are lifted it will go above 1 again...

Quantum Erasure

tony1980 wrote: »

I can’t fit a pool in my house unfortunately...

Or a lake even

easypazz

Quantum Erasure wrote: »

And when restrictions are lifted it will go above 1 again...

Will anybody care?

Roger_007

Deleted User wrote: »

Sure why would you need to go to a golf course to play golf. Just go to the driving range. Same thing.

Golf consists mostly of walking, (about 5 miles for a round), out in the fresh air. Much better that sitting on a stationary bike in a stuffy gym going absolutely nowhere!

Mic 1972

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

Another big enough drop in italy cases today, +2,256 cases, lowest since 10th March.

Italy has been consistent with the lock down and now they are finally seeing good results

Poor_old_gill

I always find the "nature is my gym" types to be the people who do little or no exercise.

Gyms will definitely be back and hopefully more people will have used this time to get into exercise.

It's like saying office spaces will never be back - they might be scaled back a bit but people will still want to have a clear distinction between home & work, while also enjoying the social element of working in an office.

Mic 1972

Glebee wrote: »

A lot more people out and about today compared to a few days ago..

it gets worse every day, people think the lock down is finished

Quantum Erasure

easypazz wrote: »

Will anybody care?

This guy does

Originally Posted by Doyler99:
When the lock down ends in 2 weeks, can someone explain to me how the virus will spread then?

An Ciarraioch

easypazz wrote: »

Will anybody care?

They will when the deaths duly rise.

Gynoid

easypazz wrote: »

Will anybody care?

Only those who will die and those who loved them.
I appreciate this is boring and a tad trying but do hold on to some bit of sense and humanity