Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Turtwig

fits wrote: »

Holey moley. If that turns out to be accurate, it turns everything on its head.

How does it change anything? It's interesting to know from the point of view of evolution of the disease and its original spread. But I don't get how it changes anything?

Rob A. Bank

rm212 wrote: »

This is exactly my fear too, well said. I find that a lot of Irish people have this annoying attitude of doing things halfway and saying it’s grand, but if it’s comes back to bite, they’ll claim like they did it 99%, if you know what I mean?

The problem is that the 'powers that be' seem to be doing things 'half way' as well.

They are totally ignoring pre-symptomatic and silent spreaders by not requesting face covering for everyone in public. By the time symptoms appear in an individual the horse has bolted and then add the delay of getting results... makes contact tracing far more difficult than it should be.

Will we be the last country in Europe to recommend public masking ?

That and the failure to stop 'Day Trippers' from abroad run loose around the country.

As usual they do 'too little too late' as our case rate and death rate sadly testify.

What Username Guidelines

Turtwig wrote: »

How does it change anything? It's interesting to know from the point of view of evolution of the disease and its original spread. But I don't get how it changes anything?

It could mean this is a deadlier second wave (not sure I bank so much on this mirroring the Spanish flu as much as others do), that far less people in the population are susceptible to it, and that the IFR is far less than the WHO saying it’s 3.4%

Still tho, lots of people get excited about this, but in reality it still doesn’t stop surges or pressure on healthcare system.

fritzelly

Turtwig wrote: »

How does it change anything? It's interesting to know from the point of view of evolution of the disease and its original spread. But I don't get how it changes anything?

Only way I could see it as big news is if other countries start finding it then questions need to be asked how could something that apparently had very few cases in Wuhan had managed to spread to so many countries within a few weeks...

fits

Turtwig wrote: »

How does it change anything? It's interesting to know from the point of view of evolution of the disease and its original spread. But I don't get how it changes anything?

The possibility it was in circulation much longer. It was in Europe before the WHO even knew about it.

eagle eye

So based on reports from many parts of the country today from personal friends it appears lots of people were out and about today.

Our idiot government again being so stupid. The famous old saying 'if you give them an inch, they'll take a mile' comes to mind. They put out a phased reopening plan and that's the inch. How could you be so stupid to think that people will stay inside when you are telling them things are looking good?

Another story I was told today from a friend working at the airport is about Romanians flying in and out of the country collecting social welfare. Apparently the department got word of it and stopped a bunch of them at the airport and cancelled their pps numbers.

Now while it's good to hear about detection there is the situation that they were all coming in here not self-isolating and doing their business and leaving. If ever there was proof that we need state monitored self quarantine for everybody entering the country it was this.

The fact none of this made the news is a shocking pointer to how our media are hiding things instead of being honest and bringing us all the news. I can't post any proof myself because this information came from a friend who works at the airport and does not want to become a public figure even for a short time. I can guarantee you it's true though because this person to the best of my knowledge has never told a lie.

Turtwig

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

It could mean this is a deadlier second wave (not sure I bank so much on this mirroring the Spanish flu as much as others do), that far less people in the population are susceptible to it, and that the IFR is far less than the WHO saying it’s 3.4%

Still tho, lots of people get excited about this, but in reality it still doesn’t stop surges or pressure on healthcare system.

I don't understand.
Patient zero in China was traced back to November 2019. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that other countries had infections in December.

Don't recall the WHO saying 3.4% IFR either. Tedros was quoted saying something like that in a general media press briefing but it wasn't IFR he was referring to case fatalities.

Professor Moriarty

eagle eye wrote: »

So based on reports from many parts of the country today from personal friends it appears lots of people were out and about today.

Our idiot government again being so stupid. The famous old saying 'if you give them an inch, they'll take a mile' comes to mind. They put out a phased reopening plan and that's the inch. How could you be so stupid to think that people will stay inside when you are telling them things are looking good?

Another story I was told today from a friend working at the airport is about Romanians flying in and out of the country collecting social welfare. Apparently the department got word of it and stopped a bunch of them at the airport and cancelled their pps numbers.

Now while it's good to hear about detection there is the situation that they were all coming in here not self-isolating and doing their business and leaving. If ever there was proof that we need state monitored self quarantine for everybody entering the country it was this.

The fact none of this made the news is a shocking pointer to how our media are hiding things instead of being honest and bringing us all the news. I can't post any proof myself because this information came from a friend who works at the airport and does not want to become a public figure even for a short time. I can guarantee you it's true though because this person to the best of my knowledge has never told a lie.

Satire?

What Username Guidelines

Turtwig wrote: »

I don't understand.
Patient zero in China was traced back to November 2019. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that other countries had infections in December.

Don't recall the WHO saying 3.4% IFR either. Tedros was quoted saying something like that in a general media press briefing but it wasn't IFR he was referring to case fatalities.

Sorry, CFR, correct.

I mean even if it was in Ireland or Europe in 2019, I don’t fully understand why this is such good news as there is still the issue of overwhelming hospitals.

kilkenny31

Micky 32 wrote: »

Yawn, I do love these posts. It must be great craic in your house during this lockdown. I hate to be the bearer of bad news but life WILL get back to normal eventually. Look at other pandemics, like the 1918 one that estimated 100million deaths worldwide. Where is the Spanish flu now? It eventually disappeared and the world flourished. 2020 normality is out for sure but in the next year or 2 things WILL be a lot different than today.

Exaclty right. This will be over in a year two at most or even if it is still around chances are it will be much weaker than it is now. The convential wisdom is that a virus like this will learn that it is better to he weaker as it can pass more easily between hosts. We are living through the worst of this now. They might be speradic outbreaks over the rest of the year but this virus will eventually be gone or at least a lot less lethal than it is now.

robbiezero

eagle eye wrote: »

So based on reports from many parts of the country today from personal friends it appears lots of people were out and about today.

Our idiot government again being so stupid. The famous old saying 'if you give them an inch, they'll take a mile' comes to mind. They put out a phased reopening plan and that's the inch. How could you be so stupid to think that people will stay inside when you are telling them things are looking good?

Another story I was told today from a friend working at the airport is about Romanians flying in and out of the country collecting social welfare. Apparently the department got word of it and stopped a bunch of them at the airport and cancelled their pps numbers.

Now while it's good to hear about detection there is the situation that they were all coming in here not self-isolating and doing their business and leaving. If ever there was proof that we need state monitored self quarantine for everybody entering the country it was this.

The fact none of this made the news is a shocking pointer to how our media are hiding things instead of being honest and bringing us all the news. I can't post any proof myself because this information came from a friend who works at the airport and does not want to become a public figure even for a short time. I can guarantee you it's true though because this person to the best of my knowledge has never told a lie.

Whats wrong with lots of people being out and about?

thecretinhop

look into tedros past...

Miike

thecretinhop wrote: »

look into tedros past...

Why don't you just tell us?

castletownman

Could it be construed as good news because those that possibly had it back then are immune to it now, and thus verifies the belief that you can't get re-infected?

bekker

castletownman wrote: »

Could it be construed as good news because those that possibly had it back then are immune to it now, and thus verifies the belief that you can't get re-infected?

Why do you believe that all such people would be immune to it now?

ZX7R

eagle eye wrote: »

So based on reports from many parts of the country today from personal friends it appears lots of people were out and about today.

Our idiot government again being so stupid. The famous old saying 'if you give them an inch, they'll take a mile' comes to mind. They put out a phased reopening plan and that's the inch. How could you be so stupid to think that people will stay inside when you are telling them things are looking good?

Another story I was told today from a friend working at the airport is about Romanians flying in and out of the country collecting social welfare. Apparently the department got word of it and stopped a bunch of them at the airport and cancelled their pps numbers.

Now while it's good to hear about detection there is the situation that they were all coming in here not self-isolating and doing their business and leaving. If ever there was proof that we need state monitored self quarantine for everybody entering the country it was this.

The fact none of this made the news is a shocking pointer to how our media are hiding things instead of being honest and bringing us all the news. I can't post any proof myself because this information came from a friend who works at the airport and does not want to become a public figure even for a short time. I can guarantee you it's true though because this person to the best of my knowledge has never told a lie.

What country were the romaine's flying from and too

fritzelly

Miike wrote: »

Why don't you just tell us?

Something about covering up disease breakouts in his country...?

MerlinSouthDub

Encouraging signs here with only 11 new Covid 19 hospital admissions over the last 24 hours. Lowest it's been in quite a while. Number of confirmed cases in ICU down to 93, but sadly 2 in ICU died.

https://www.hse.ie/eng/services/news/newsfeatures/covid19-updates/covid-19-daily-operations-update-20-00-3-may-2020.pdf

DevilsHaircut

It doesn't change at all what the public should be doing now. But the information (if correct) will be of great use to epidemiologists and be used in their models (for a start, it may indicate a greater amount of asymptomatic spread).

It will likely be cited by WHO/China bashers and 'end the lockdown' types, but that doesn't mean it's not very significant.

Xertz

DevilsHaircut wrote: »

It seems that the early French case was discovered by retesting PCR swabs that were taken at the time to identify 'classical influenza' and that gave negative results.

'We repeated all the PCRs tested in patients with pneumonia in December and January whose results were negative," said Yves Cohen. "And of the 24 patients, we had a positive case at Covid-19, on December 27, when he was hospitalized with us,'

https://actu17.fr/un-patient-etait-positif-au-coronavirus-le-27-decembre-en-france-annonce-le-professeur-yves-cohen/

https://twitter.com/cecileollivier/status/1256966423919935491

If that's accurate, it is *very* likely it was here and in lots of other places. We are all very much in the same bubble as Paris, London, NYC and so on, even if they were isolated cases.

I assume it takes it a while to ramp up R0 to the point that it surges as happened.

ShineOn7

Beasty wrote: »

It usually just regurgitates the related press release, and it's as easy just to go the gov.ie website and view it directly....

They do a bit more than that in fairness, they post loads of details from the briefings and the Gov.ie website combined is my understanding. The Reddit poster has a background in Science and works in Pharma and they seem to put in big effort into the longer recaps

Today's post below the line, it's a short one today

_________________________


New cases: 330
Total cases: 21,506
New deaths: 19
Total deaths: 1,303
As of Friday 1st May

• 58% female
• 42% male
• Median age: 49
• Healthcare workers: 6,068 (5973 on Thursday 30th, 5840 on Weds 29th - increase of 228 since Weds)
• Hospitalised: 2,825
• ICU: 363

GM228

Ireland Coronavirus Statistics - Day 65 – Sunday 03/05/2020
All data is cumulative and based on the date of official reporting

Day

|

Date

|

Cases

|

New Cases

|

Total Cases

|

Case Increase

|

Reporting Increase

|

Deaths

|

Probable Deaths*⁵

|

Total Deaths

|

Deaths daily increase

|

CFR

|

New Hosp

|

Total Hosp

|

Hosp %

|

Hosp daily increase

|

New ICU

|

Total ICU

|

ICU %

|

ICU daily increase

|

Recovered*³

|

Recovery %

|

Population

| Active Cases*⁴

1

|

29/02/2020

|

0

|

1

|

1

|

N/A

|

N/A

|

0

|

N/A

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.000%

| 1

2

|

01/03/2020

|

1

|

0

|

1

|

0%

|

0%

|

0

|

N/A

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.000%

| 1

3

|

02/03/2020

|

1

|

0

|

1

|

0%

|

0%

|

0

|

N/A

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.000%

| 1

4

|

03/03/2020

|

1

|

1

|

2

|

100%

|

0%

|

0

|

N/A

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.000%

| 2

5

|

04/03/2020

|

2

|

4

|

6

|

200%

|

300%

|

0

|

N/A

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.000%

| 6

6

|

05/03/2020

|

6

|

7

|

13

|

117%

|

75%

|

0

|

N/A

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.000%

| 13

7

|

06/03/2020

|

13

|

5

|

18

|

38%

|

-29%

|

0

|

N/A

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.000%

| 18

8

|

07/03/2020

|

18

|

1

|

19

|

6%

|

-80%

|

0

|

N/A

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.000%

| 19

9

|

08/03/2020

|

19

|

2

|

21

|

11%

|

100%

|

0

|

N/A

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.000%

| 21

10

|

09/03/2020

|

21

|

3

|

24

|

14%

|

50%

|

0

|

N/A

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.000%

| 24

11

|

10/03/2020

|

24

|

10

|

34

|

42%

|

233%

|

0

|

N/A

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.001%

| 34

12

|

11/03/2020

|

34

|

9

|

43

|

26%

|

-10%

|

1

|

N/A

|

1

|

N/A

|

2.3%

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.001%

| 42

13

|

12/03/2020

|

43

|

27

|

70

|

63%

|

200%

|

0

|

N/A

|

1

|

0%

|

1.4%

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.001%

| 69

14

|

13/03/2020

|

70

|

20

|

90

|

29%

|

-26%

|

0

|

N/A

|

1

|

0%

|

1.1%

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.002%

| 89

15

|

14/03/2020

|

90

|

39

|

129

|

43%

|

95%

|

1

|

N/A

|

2

|

100%

|

1.6%

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.003%

| 127

16

|

15/03/2020

|

129

|

40

|

169

|

31%

|

3%

|

0

|

N/A

|

2

|

0%

|

1.2%

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

NR

|

N/A

|

NR

|

NR

|

0.003%

| 167

17

|

16/03/2020

|

169

|

54

|

223

|

32%

|

35%

|

0

|

N/A

|

2

|

0%

|

0.9%

|

84

|

84

|

38%

|

N/A

|

84

|

6

|

3%

|

N/A

|

5

|

2%

|

0.005%

| 216

18

|

17/03/2020

|

223

|

69

|

292

|

31%

|

28%

|

0

|

N/A

|

2

|

0%

|

0.7%

|

24

|

108

|

37%

|

29%

|

1

|

7

|

2%

|

17%

|

5

|

2%

|

0.006%

| 285

19

|

18/03/2020

|

292

|

74

|

366

|

25%

|

7%

|

0

|

N/A

|

2

|

0%

|

0.5%

|

32

|

140

|

38%

|

30%

|

5

|

12

|

3%

|

71%

|

5

|

1%

|

0.007%

| 359

20

|

19/03/2020

|

366

|

191

|

557

|

52%

|

158%

|

1

|

N/A

|

3

|

50%

|

0.5%

|

33

|

173

|

31%

|

24%

|

1

|

13

|

2%

|

8%

|

5

|

1%

|

0.011%

| 549

21

|

20/03/2020

|

557

|

126

|

683

|

23%

|

-34%

|

0

|

N/A

|

3

|

0%

|

0.4%

|

38

|

211

|

31%

|

22%

|

4

|

17

|

2%

|

31%

|

5

|

1%

|

0.014%

| 675

22

|

21/03/2020

|

683

|

102

|

785

|

15%

|

-19%

|

0

|

N/A

|

3

|

33%

|

0.4%

|

28

|

239

|

30%

|

13%

|

8

|

25

|

3%

|

47%

|

5

|

1%

|

0.016%

| 777

23

|

22/03/2020

|

785

|

121

|

906

|

15%

|

19%

|

1

|

N/A

|

4

|

33%

|

0.4%

|

38

|

277

|

31%

|

16%

|

11

|

36

|

4%

|

44%

|

5

|

1%

|

0.018%

| 897

24

|

23/03/2020

|

906

|

219

|

1125

|

24%

|

81%

|

2

|

N/A

|

6

|

50%

|

0.5%

|

28

|

305

|

27%

|

10%

|

3

|

39

|

3%

|

8%

|

5

|

0%

|

0.023%

| 1114

25

|

24/03/2020

|

1125

|

204

|

1329

|

18%

|

-7%

|

1

|

N/A

|

7

|

17%

|

0.5%

|

35

|

340

|

26%

|

11%

|

8

|

47

|

4%

|

21%

|

5

|

0%

|

0.027%

| 1317

26

|

25/03/2020

|

1329

|

235

|

1564

|

18%

|

15%

|

2

|

N/A

|

9

|

29%

|

0.6%

|

79

|

419

|

27%

|

23%

|

12

|

59

|

4%

|

26%

|

5

|

0%

|

0.032%

| 1550

27

|

26/03/2020

|

1564

|

255

|

1819

|

16%

|

9%

|

10

|

N/A

|

19

|

111%

|

1%

|

70

|

489

|

27%

|

17%

|

8

|

67

|

4%

|

14%

|

5

|

0%

|

0.037%

| 1795

28

|

27/03/2020

|

1819

|

302

|

2121

|

17%

|

18%

|

3

|

N/A

|

22

|

16%

|

1%

|

75

|

564

|

27%

|

15%

|

10

|

77

|

4%

|

15%

|

5

|

0%

|

0.043%

| 2094

29

|

28/03/2020

|

2121

|

294

|

2415

|

14%

|

-3%

|

14

|

N/A

|

36

|

64%

|

1.5%

|

81

|

645

|

27%

|

14%

|

7

|

84

|

3%

|

9%

|

5

|

0%

|

0.049%

| 2374

30

|

29/03/2020

|

2415

|

200

|

2615

|

8%

|

-32%

|

10

|

N/A

|

46

|

28%

|

1.8%

|

58

|

703

|

27%

|

9%

|

29

|

113

|

4%

|

35%

|

5

|

0%

|

0.053%

| 2564

31

|

30/03/2020

|

2615

|

295

|

2910

|

11%

|

48%

|

8

|

N/A

|

54

|

17%

|

1.9%

|

131

|

834

|

29%

|

19%

|

13

|

126

|

4%

|

12%

|

5

|

0%

|

0.059%

| 2851

32

|

31/03/2020

|

2910

|

325

|

3235

|

11%

|

10%

|

17

|

N/A

|

71

|

31%

|

2.2%

|

98

|

932

|

29%

|

12%

|

8

|

134

|

4%

|

6%

|

25

|

1%

|

0.066%

| 3139

33

|

01/04/2020

|

3235

|

212

|

3447

|

7%

|

-35%

|

14

|

N/A

|

85

|

20%

|

2.5%

|

107

|

1039

|

30%

|

11%

|

14

|

148

|

4%

|

10%

|

25

|

1%

|

0.070%

| 3337

34

|

02/04/2020

|

3447

|

402

|

3849

|

12%

|

90%

|

13

|

N/A

|

98

|

15%

|

2.5%

|

79

|

1118

|

29%

|

8%

|

10

|

158

|

4%

|

7%

|

25

|

1%

|

0.078%

| 3726

35

|

03/04/2020

|

3849

|

424

|

4273

|

11%

|

5%

|

22

|

N/A

|

120

|

22%

|

2.8%

|

85

|

1203

|

28%

|

8%

|

7

|

165

|

4%

|

4%

|

25

|

1%

|

0.087%

| 4128

36

|

04/04/2020

|

4273

|

331

|

4604

|

8%

|

-22%

|

17

|

N/A

|

137

|

14%

|

3.0%

|

62

|

1265

|

27%

|

5%

|

4

|

169

|

4%

|

2%

|

25

|

1%

|

0.094%

| 4442

37

|

05/04/2020

|

4604

|

390

|

4994

|

8%

|

18%

|

21

|

N/A

|

158

|

15%

|

3.2%

|

80

|

1345

|

27%

|

6%

|

25

|

194

|

4%

|

15%

|

25

|

1%

|

0.101%

| 4811

38

|

06/04/2020

|

4994

|

370

|

5364

|

7%

|

-5%

|

16

|

N/A

|

174

|

10%

|

3.2%

|

127

|

1472

|

27%

|

9%

|

30

|

224

|

4%

|

15%

|

25

|

0%

|

0.109%

| 5165

39

|

07/04/2020

|

5364

|

345

|

5709

|

6%

|

-7%

|

36

|

N/A

|

210

|

21%

|

3.7%

|

49

|

1521

|

27%

|

3%

|

6

|

230

|

4%

|

3%

|

25

|

0%

|

0.116%

| 5474

40

|

08/04/2020

|

5709

|

365

|

6074

|

6%

|

6%

|

25

|

N/A

|

235

|

12%

|

3.9%

|

110

|

1631

|

27%

|

7%

|

14

|

244

|

4%

|

6%

|

25

|

0%

|

0.123%

| 5814

41

|

09/04/2020

|

6074

|

500

|

6574

|

8%

|

37%

|

28

|

N/A

|

263

|

12%

|

4.0%

|

87

|

1718

|

26%

|

5%

|

9

|

253

|

4%

|

4%

|

25

|

0%

|

0.134%

| 6286

42*¹ ²

|

10/04/2020

|

6574

|

1515

|

8089

|

23%

|

203%

|

25

|

N/A

|

287

|

9%

|

4.0%

|

59

|

1777

|

22%

|

3%

|

8

|

261

|

3%

|

3%

|

25

|

0%

|

0.164%

| 7777

43*¹

|

11/04/2020

|

8089

|

839

|

8928

|

10%

|

-45%

|

33

|

N/A

|

320

|

11%

|

3.6%

|

72

|

1849

|

21%

|

4%

|

7

|

268

|

3%

|

3%

|

25

|

0%

|

0.181%

| 8583

44*¹

|

12/04/2020

|

8928

|

727

|

9655

|

8%

|

-13%

|

14

|

N/A

|

334

|

4%

|

3.5%

|

54

|

1903

|

20%

|

3%

|

7

|

275

|

3%

|

3%

|

25

|

0%

|

0.196%

| 9296

45*¹

|

13/04/2020

|

9655

|

992

|

10647

|

10%

|

36%

|

31

|

N/A

|

365

|

9%

|

3.4%

|

65

|

1968

|

18%

|

3%

|

5

|

280

|

3%

|

2%

|

25

|

0%

|

0.216%

| 10257

46*¹

|

14/04/2020

|

10647

|

832

|

11479

|

8%

|

-16%

|

41

|

N/A

|

406

|

11%

|

3.5%

|

58

|

2026

|

18%

|

3%

|

4

|

284

|

2%

|

1%

|

25

|

0%

|

0.233%

| 11048

47*¹

|

15/04/2020

|

11479

|

1068

|

12547

|

9%

|

28%

|

38

|

N/A

|

444

|

9%

|

3.5%

|

56

|

2082

|

17%

|

3%

|

10

|

294

|

2%

|

4%

|

77

|

1%

|

0.255%

| 12026

48*¹ ²

|

16/04/2020

|

12547

|

724

|

13271

|

6%

|

-32%

|

43

|

N/A

|

486

|

9%

|

3.7%

|

86

|

2168

|

16%

|

4%

|

2

|

296

|

2%

|

1%

|

77

|

1%

|

0.270%

| 12708

49*¹

|

17/04/2020

|

13271

|

709

|

13980

|

5%

|

-2%

|

44

|

N/A

|

530

|

9%

|

3.8%

|

55

|

2223

|

16%

|

3%

|

7

|

303

|

2%

|

2%

|

77

|

1%

|

0.284%

| 13373

50*¹

|

18/04/2020

|

13980

|

778

|

14758

|

6%

|

10%

|

41

|

N/A

|

571

|

8%

|

3.9%

|

49

|

2272

|

15%

|

2%

|

3

|

306

|

2%

|

1%

|

77

|

1%

|

0.300%

| 14110

51*¹

|

19/04/2020

|

14758

|

493

|

15251

|

3%

|

-37%

|

39

|

N/A

|

610

|

7%

|

4.0%

|

51

|

2323

|

15%

|

2%

|

9

|

315

|

2%

|

3%

|

77

|

1%

|

0.310%

| 14564

52

|

20/04/2020

|

15251

|

401

|

15652

|

3%

|

-19%

|

77

|

N/A

|

687

|

13%

|

4.4%

|

64

|

2387

|

15%

|

3%

|

7

|

322

|

2%

|

2%

|

77

|

0%

|

0.318%

| 14888

53*²

|

21/04/2020

|

15652

|

388

|

16040

|

2%

|

-3%

|

44

|

N/A

|

730

|

6%

|

4.6%

|

37

|

2424

|

15%

|

2%

|

9

|

331

|

2%

|

3%

|

9233

|

58%

|

0.326%

| 6077

54*²

|

22/04/2020

|

16040

|

631

|

16671

|

4%

|

63%

|

49

|

N/A

|

769

|

5%

|

4.6%

|

62

|

2486

|

15%

|

3%

|

7

|

338

|

2%

|

2%

|

9233

|

55%

|

0.339%

| 6669

55*²

|

23/04/2020

|

16671

|

936

|

17607

|

6%

|

48%

|

28

|

N/A

|

794

|

3%

|

4.5%

|

50

|

2536

|

14%

|

2%

|

6

|

344

|

2%

|

2%

|

9233

|

52%

|

0.358%

| 7580

56*²

|

24/04/2020

|

17607

|

577

|

18184

|

3%

|

-38%

|

37

|

185

|

1014

|

28%

|

5.6%

|

40

|

2576

|

14%

|

2%

|

5

|

349

|

2%

|

1%

|

9233

|

51%

|

0.369%

| 7937

57*²

|

25/04/2020

|

18184

|

377

|

18561

|

2%

|

-35%

|

42

|

10

|

1063

|

5%

|

5.7%

|

49

|

2625

|

14%

|

2%

|

4

|

353

|

2%

|

1%

|

9233

|

50%

|

0.377%

| 8265

58*²

|

26/04/2020

|

18561

|

701

|

19262

|

4%

|

86%

|

23

|

3

|

1087

|

2%

|

5.6%

|

11

|

2636

|

14%

|

0%

|

5

|

358

|

2%

|

1%

|

9233

|

48%

|

0.391%

| 8942

59*²

|

27/04/2020

|

19262

|

386

|

19648

|

2%

|

-45%

|

17

|

1

|

1102

|

1%

|

5.6%

|

33

|

2669

|

14%

|

1%

|

-3

|

355

|

2%

|

-1%

|

9233

|

47%

|

0.399%

| 9313

60*²

|

28/04/2020

|

19648

|

229

|

19877

|

1%

|

-41%

|

45

|

14

|

1159

|

5%

|

5.8%

|

37

|

2706

|

14%

|

1%

|

5

|

360

|

2%

|

1%

|

9233

|

46%

|

0.404%

| 9485

61

|

29/04/2020

|

19877

|

376

|

20253

|

2%

|

64%

|

31

|

0

|

1190

|

3%

|

5.9%

|

62

|

2768

|

14%

|

2%

|

7

|

367

|

2%

|

2%

|

12222

|

60%

|

0.411%

| 6841

62*²

|

30/04/2020

|

20253

|

359

|

20612

|

2%

|

-5%

|

43

|

0

|

1232

|

4%

|

6.0%

|

17

|

2785

|

14%

|

1%

|

1

|

368

|

2%

|

0.3%

|

12222

|

59%

|

0.419%

| 7158

63*²

|

01/05/2020

|

20612

|

221

|

20833

|

1%

|

-38%

|

34

|

0

|

1265

|

3%

|

6.1%

|

40

|

2825

|

14%

|

1%

|

-5

|

363

|

2%

|

-1%

|

13386

|

64%

|

0.423%

| 6182

64*²

|

02/05/2020

|

20833

|

343

|

21176

|

2%

|

55%

|

25

|

0

|

1286

|

2%

|

6.1%

|

0

|

2825

|

13%

|

0%

|

0

|

363

|

2%

|

0%

|

13386

|

63%

|

0.430%

| 6504

65*²

|

03/05/2020

|

21176

|

330

|

21506

|

2%

|

-4%

|

19

|

0

|

1303

|

1%

|

6.1%

|

0

|

2825

|

13%

|

0%

|

0

|

363

|

2%

|

0%

|

13386

|

62%

|

0.437%

| 6817

CFR = Case fatality rate
NR = Not reported

Source: Department of Health, the Health Protection Surveillance Centre and the HSE.

NOTES: -
*¹ Daily increase numbers on these dates represent both new cases and older cases reported from Germany which results in skewed daily % increases and average case reporting % changes, numbers are broken down as:-
Day|Date|New Irish Cases|German Cases
42|10/04/20|480|1035
43|11/04/20|553|286
44|12/04/20|430|297
45|13/04/20| 527|465
46|14/04/20|548|284
47|15/04/20|657|411
48|16/04/20|629|95
49|17/04/20|597|112
50|18/04/20|630|148
51|19/04/20|445|48


*² Denotification of deaths:-
10/04/20 – 1
16/04/20 – 1
21/04/20 – 1
22/04/20 – 10
23/04/20 – 3
24/04/20 – 2
25/04/20 – 3
26/04/20 – 2
27/04/20 – 3 (also ICU number reduced by an unspecified amount)
28/04/20 – 2
30/04/20 – 1
1/05/20 – 1
2/05/20 – 4
3/05/20 – 2 (also ICU number reduced by an unspecified amount)

*³ Recovered rates are not reported officially by the DoH or HPSC in the above links, these figures are taken from the Worldmeters and Johns Hopkins websites which use data supplied by the DoT to the ECDC under the WHO Guidelines for reporting.

Recovered statistics are only be published as "recovered" following two successful tests of being clear of the virus under the WHO reporting guidelines, as a result it is likely the recovered data is skewed. Updated on 15/04/20 - The WHO reporting criteria has been changed recently to eliminate the 2 test requirement before reporting as recovered, now an outcome report is sent within one month of initial notification or when an outcome is known, the available health outcomes are either “recovered/healthy”, “not recovered", “death", “unknown" or “other", weather this helps create more accurate recovery numbers or skews them further is yet to be seen.

*⁴ Due to the above issue with reporting of recovered cases the number of active cases is also likely skewed.

*⁵ From 24/04/20 probable deaths are included in the official death figures, this is to comply with the WHO definition of COVID-19 deaths issued on the 16th and adopted in Europe by the ECDC yesterday, this is in compliance with what is known as the International Statistical Classification of Diseases known as the ICD-10, as a result a new column has been added into the charts to separate confirmed and suspected COVID-19 deaths – see this post for an explanation on this change. As a result of this change in reporting the CFR is skewed as a corresponding number of cumulative case numbers is not currently part of the official records.

Case/death reporting averages:-

Day

| Date | ▲Day 1 | ▲10 Days | ▲7 days | ▲3 Days | .. | ■ Day 1 | ■ 10 Days | ■ 7 Days | ■ 3 days | .. |

● Day 1 (Day 12)

| ● 10 Days | ■ 7 Days● | ■ 3 days

1

| 29/02/2020 | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | .. | 0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | .. | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A

2

| 01/03/2020 | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | .. | 0% | N/A | N/A | N/A | .. | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A

3

| 02/03/2020 | 0.0% | N/A | N/A | 0% | .. | 0% | N/A | N/A | 0% | .. | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A

4

| 03/03/2020 | 25.0% | N/A | N/A | 33% | .. | 0% | N/A | N/A | 0% | .. | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A

5

| 04/03/2020 | 60.0% | N/A | N/A | 100% | .. | 60% | N/A | N/A | 100% | .. | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A

6

| 05/03/2020 | 69.4% | N/A | N/A | 139% | .. | 63% | N/A | N/A | 125% | .. | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A

7

| 06/03/2020 | 65.0% | N/A | 65% | 118% | .. | 49% | N/A | 49% | 115% | .. | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A

8

| 07/03/2020 | 57.6% | N/A | 66% | 54% | .. | 33% | N/A | 38% | -11% | .. | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A

9

| 08/03/2020 | 52.4% | N/A | 67% | 18% | .. | 41% | N/A | 52% | -3% | .. | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A

10

| 09/03/2020 | 49% | 49% | 69% | 10% | .. | 42% | 42% | 59% | 23% | .. | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A

11

| 10/03/2020 | 48% | 53% | 61% | 22% | .. | 59% | 65% | 93% | 128% | .. | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A

12

| 11/03/2020 | 46% | 55% | 36% | 27% | .. | 53% | 64% | 49% | 91% | .. | 0% | N/A | N/A | N/A

13

| 12/03/2020 | 47% | 62% | 29% | 44% | .. | 65% | 84% | 66% | 141% | .. | 0% | N/A | N/A | N/A

14

| 13/03/2020 | 46% | 54% | 27% | 39% | .. | 58% | 81% | 67% | 55% | .. | 0% | N/A | N/A | N/A

15

| 14/03/2020 | 46% | 39% | 33% | 45% | .. | 61% | 61% | 92% | 90% | .. | 25% | N/A | N/A | 33%

16

| 15/03/2020 | 45% | 30% | 35% | 34% | .. | 57% | 54% | 78% | 24% | .. | 20% | N/A | N/A | 33%

17

| 16/03/2020 | 44% | 30% | 38% | 35% | .. | 56% | 60% | 76% | 44% | .. | 17% | N/A | N/A | 33%

18

| 17/03/2020 | 43% | 32% | 36% | 31% | .. | 54% | 71% | 46% | 22% | .. | 14% | N/A | 14% | 33%

19

| 18/03/2020 | 43% | 34% | 36% | 29% | .. | 52% | 61% | 49% | 23% | .. | 13% | N/A | 14% | 0%

20

| 19/03/2020 | 43% | 37% | 35% | 36% | .. | 57% | 72% | 43% | 64% | .. | 17% | N/A | 21% | 17%

21

| 20/03/2020 | 42% | 36% | 34% | 33% | .. | 53% | 46% | 42% | 44% | .. | 15% | 15% | 21% | 17%

22

| 21/03/2020 | 41% | 34% | 30% | 30% | .. | 49% | 45% | 25% | 35% | .. | 17% | 15% | 12% | 28%

23

| 22/03/2020 | 40% | 30% | 28% | 18% | .. | 48% | 27% | 28% | -11% | .. | 18% | 18% | 17% | 39%

24

| 23/03/2020 | 39% | 29% | 27% | 18% | .. | 49% | 37% | 34% | 27% | .. | 21% | 22% | 24% | 39%

25

| 24/03/2020 | 38% | 27% | 25% | 19% | .. | 47% | 27% | 29% | 31% | .. | 20% | 27% | 26% | 44%

26

| 25/03/2020 | 37% | 25% | 24% | 20% | .. | 46% | 28% | 30% | 30% | .. | 21% | 18% | 30% | 43%

27

| 26/03/2020 | 37% | 24% | 18% | 17% | .. | 45% | 26% | 9% | 6% | .. | 26% | 21% | 39% | 69%

28

| 27/03/2020 | 36% | 22% | 18% | 17% | .. | 44% | 25% | 17% | 14% | .. | 26% | 32% | 41% | 57%

29

| 28/03/2020 | 35% | 21% | 17% | 16% | .. | 42% | 24% | 19% | 8% | .. | 28% | 34% | 46% | 73%

30

| 29/03/2020 | 34% | 17% | 16% | 13% | .. | 40% | 5% | 12% | -5% | .. | 28% | 40% | 45% | 73%

31

| 30/03/2020 | 34% | 16% | 15% | 11% | .. | 40% | 13% | 7% | 4% | .. | 27% | 38% | 40% | 42%

32

| 31/03/2020 | 33% | 15% | 14% | 10% | .. | 39% | 16% | 9% | 9% | .. | 28% | 40% | 42% | 47%

33

| 01/04/2020 | 32% | 14% | 12% | 10% | .. | 37% | 10% | 2% | 8% | .. | 27% | 40% | 41% | 32%

34

| 02/04/2020 | 31% | 13% | 11% | 10% | .. | 38% | 11% | 14% | 22% | .. | 27% | 38% | 27% | 28%

35

| 03/04/2020 | 31% | 12% | 11% | 10% | .. | 37% | 13% | 12% | 20% | .. | 27% | 35% | 28% | 30%

36

| 04/04/2020 | 30% | 11% | 10% | 10% | .. | 36% | 9% | 9% | 24% | .. | 26% | 35% | 21% | 24%

37

| 05/04/2020 | 30% | 11% | 10% | 9% | .. | 35% | 10% | 16% | 0% | .. | 26% | 34% | 19% | 22%

38

| 06/04/2020 | 29% | 10% | 9% | 8% | .. | 34% | 7% | 9% | -3% | .. | 25% | 24% | 18% | 21%

39

| 07/04/2020 | 28% | 9% | 8% | 7% | .. | 33% | 7% | 6% | 2% | .. | 25% | 24% | 17% | 20%

40

| 08/04/2020 | 28% | 9% | 8% | 7% | .. | 32% | 11% | 12% | -2% | .. | 24% | 19% | 16% | 19%

41

| 09/04/2020 | 27% | 9% | 8% | 7% | .. | 32% | 10% | 5% | 12% | .. | 24% | 18% | 15% | 18%

42

| 10/04/2020 | 27% | 10% | 10% | 13% | .. | 37% | 29% | 33% | 82% | .. | 24% | 17% | 13% | 18%

43

| 11/04/2020 | 27% | 10% | 10% | 14% | .. | 35% | 28% | 30% | 65% | .. | 23% | 15% | 13% | 15%

44

| 12/04/2020 | 26% | 10% | 10% | 14% | .. | 34% | 18% | 25% | 48% | .. | 23% | 14% | 11% | 12%

45

| 13/04/2020 | 26% | 10% | 10% | 10% | .. | 34% | 21% | 31% | -7% | .. | 22% | 13% | 11% | 11%

46

| 14/04/2020 | 26% | 10% | 11% | 9% | .. | 33% | 21% | 30% | 2% | .. | 22% | 12% | 10% | 12%

47

| 15/04/2020 | 25% | 10% | 11% | 9% | .. | 32% | 22% | 33% | 16% | .. | 22% | 11% | 9% | 11%

48

| 16/04/2020 | 25% | 10% | 11% | 8% | .. | 31% | 20% | 23% | -7% | .. | 21% | 11% | 9% | 13%

49

| 17/04/2020 | 25% | 9% | 8% | 7% | .. | 30% | 20% | -6% | -2% | .. | 21% | 11% | 9% | 13%

50

| 18/04/2020 | 24% | 9% | 7% | 6% | .. | 30% | 21% | 2% | -8% | .. | 21% | 10% | 9% | 12%

51

| 19/04/2020 | 24% | 9% | 7% | 5% | .. | 29% | 13% | -2% | -10% | .. | 20% | 9% | 9% | 11%

52

| 20/04/2020 | 23% | 7% | 6% | 4% | .. | 28% | -9% | -10% | -15% | .. | 20% | 9% | 9% | 12%

53

| 21/04/2020 | 23% | 6% | 5% | 3% | .. | 27% | -5% | -8% | -20% | .. | 20% | 9% | 9% | 11%

54

| 22/04/2020 | 23% | 6% | 4% | 3% | .. | 28% | 3% | -3% | 14% | .. | 19% | 9% | 8% | 10%

55

| 23/04/2020 | 22% | 5% | 4% | 4% | .. | 28% | 4% | 9% | 36% | .. | 19% | 9% | 7% | 9%

56

| 24/04/2020 | 22% | 5% | 4% | 4% | .. | 27% | 2% | 3% | 24% | .. | 19% | 8% | 10% | 14%

57

| 25/04/2020 | 22% | 4% | 3% | 4% | .. | 26% | -5% | -3% | -8% | .. | 19% | 10% | 10% | 14%

58

| 26/04/2020 | 21% | 4% | 3% | 3% | .. | 27% | 7% | 15% | 4% | .. | 19% | 9% | 9% | 13%

59

| 27/04/2020 | 21% | 3% | 3% | 3% | .. | 26% | 3% | 11% | 2% | .. | 18% | 9% | 7% | 12%

60

| 28/04/2020 | 21% | 3% | 3% | 2% | .. | 25% | -2% | 5% | 0% | .. | 18% | 8% | 7% | 5%

61

| 29/04/2020 | 20% | 3% | 3% | 2% | .. | 25% | 8% | 6% | -7% | .. | 18% | 8% | 7% | 4%

62

| 30/04/2020 | 20% | 3% | 2% | 2% | .. | 25% | 9% | -2% | 6% | .. | 17% | 7% | 7% | 4%

63

| 01/05/2020 | 20% | 3% | 2% | 2% | .. | 24% | 6% | -2% | 7% | .. | 17% | 6% | 3% | 5%

64

| 02/05/2020 | 19% | 2% | 2% | 1% | .. | 24% | 5% | 11% | 4% | .. | 17% | 6% | 3% | 4%

65

| 03/05/2020 | 19% | 2% | 2% | 1% | .. | 24% | 0% | -2% | 4% | .. | 16% | 6% | 3% | 3%

▲ = Daily increase in cases averaged over the past 10, 7 and 3 days and from day 1
■ = Daily change in cases repored averaged over the past 10, 7 and 3 days and also from day 1
● = Daily change in deaths over the past 10, 7 and 3 days and from day 1 (which in the case of deaths was Day 12 (11/03/20)

---

Northern Ireland Statistics:-

Day

|

Date

|

Cases

|

New Cases

|

Total Cases

|

Case Increase

|

Reporting Increase

|

New Deaths

|

Total Deaths

|

% Increase

|

CFR

| Population %

1

|

29/02/2020

|

0

|

1

|

1

|

N/A

|

N/A

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.000%

2

|

01/03/2020

|

1

|

0

|

1

|

0%

|

0%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.000%

3

|

02/03/2020

|

1

|

0

|

1

|

0%

|

0%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.000%

4

|

03/03/2020

|

1

|

0

|

1

|

0%

|

0%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.000%

5

|

04/03/2020

|

1

|

2

|

3

|

200%

|

0%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.000%

6

|

05/03/2020

|

3

|

0

|

3

|

0%

|

0%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.000%

7

|

06/03/2020

|

3

|

1

|

4

|

33%

|

0%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.000%

8

|

07/03/2020

|

4

|

3

|

7

|

75%

|

200%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.000%

9

|

08/03/2020

|

7

|

5

|

12

|

71%

|

67%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.001%

10

|

09/03/2020

|

12

|

0

|

12

|

0%

|

0%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.001%

11

|

10/03/2020

|

12

|

4

|

16

|

33%

|

0%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.001%

12

|

11/03/2020

|

16

|

2

|

18

|

13%

|

-50%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.001%

13

|

12/03/2020

|

18

|

2

|

20

|

11%

|

0%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.001%

14

|

13/03/2020

|

20

|

9

|

29

|

45%

|

350%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.002%

15

|

14/03/2020

|

29

|

5

|

34

|

17%

|

-44%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.002%

16

|

15/03/2020

|

34

|

11

|

45

|

32%

|

120%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.002%

17

|

16/03/2020

|

45

|

7

|

52

|

16%

|

-36%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.003%

18

|

17/03/2020

|

52

|

10

|

62

|

19%

|

43%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.003%

19

|

18/03/2020

|

62

|

6

|

68

|

10%

|

-40%

|

0

|

0

|

N/A

|

N/A

| 0.004%

20

|

19/03/2020

|

68

|

9

|

77

|

13%

|

50%

|

1

|

1

|

N/A

|

1.3%

| 0.004%

21

|

20/03/2020

|

77

|

9

|

86

|

12%

|

0%

|

0

|

1

|

100%

|

1.2%

| 0.005%

22

|

21/03/2020

|

86

|

22

|

108

|

26%

|

144%

|

0

|

1

|

100%

|

0.9%

| 0.006%

23

|

22/03/2020

|

108

|

20

|

128

|

19%

|

-9%

|

1

|

2

|

100%

|

1.6%

| 0.007%

24

|

23/03/2020

|

128

|

20

|

148

|

16%

|

0%

|

1

|

Beasty

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Today's post below the line, it's a short one today

Yep - straight off today's Press Release

Xertz

Is there any sign of home antibody tests being made available here anytime soon?

The UK seems to be talking endlessly about them and they don't materialise.

ShineOn7

Beasty wrote: »

Yep - straight off today's Press Release

And this one previously with all that detail after the numbers? Same?



https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=113323242&postcount=7851

Stheno

Xertz wrote: »

Is there any sign of home antibody tests being made available here anytime soon?

The UK seems to be talking endlessly about them and they don't materialise.

They appear not to be reliable

Cillian de Gascun said in the Irish Times today that antibody testing will be rolled out here in June to see how widespread it was

Probably a normal blood test that goes to a lab

MD1990

Im not sure many people will be able to work next winter.

Covid19 combined with the flu will be a disaster.

So many people will have to isolate if not much restrictions anyway.
Severe disease may be more common as well with the flu+covid 19.

We really will need our 5 stage plan to work so people can get back to work at least a few months before winter arrives.

New Home

rm212 wrote: »

Exactly the same sort of thing happening here today. I knew it would happen once they announced any easing, even if it was at a future date. Irish people are so like “ah sure it’ll be grand, I’ve been good for several weeks now, a bit of this won’t hurt, sure I’ve been careful to clean my hands and social distance, I’m not infected”. I’ve seen lots of family visiting their 60-70 year old grandparents today around here too. We’ll be lucky to even manage to meet the targets needed for phase 1 if this is going on in a widespread way unfortunately:(

rm212 wrote: »

This is exactly my fear too, well said. I find that a lot of Irish people have this annoying attitude of doing things halfway and saying it’s grand, but if it’s comes back to bite, they’ll claim like they did it 99%, if you know what I mean?

Just like when people undo their safety belts, stand up and take their bags and turn on the phone as soon as the plane has touched the ground, DESPITE what the captain says.

coastwatch

MD1990 wrote: »

Im not sure many people will be able to work next winter.

Covid19 combined with the flu will be a disaster.

So many people will have to isolate if not much restrictions anyway.
Severe disease may be more common as well with the flu+covid 19.

We really will need our 5 stage plan to work so people can get back to work at least a few months before winter arrives.

Covid19 will still be around, but if there's one positive outcome from this, it's that there will much lower spread of colds and flu next winter as the same behaviours that prevent spread of covid 19, will prevent spread of colds and flu.
Also, as Tony Holohan has said a few times, it wont be acceptable anymore, to go to work or out in public coughing and sneezing.

ACitizenErased

Turtwig wrote: »

I don't understand.
Patient zero in China was traced back to November 2019. It's not beyond the realms of possibility that other countries had infections in December.

Don't recall the WHO saying 3.4% IFR either. Tedros was quoted saying something like that in a general media press briefing but it wasn't IFR he was referring to case fatalities.

Patient zero is completely unknown. China is refusing to take part in the WHO investigation.

Polar101

coastwatch wrote: »

Also, as Tony Holohan has said a few times, it wont be acceptable anymore, to go to work or out in public coughing and sneezing.

That's going to be a big disappointment for the management at the company I work for.

So far it has been "there are too many people off sick, please make sure less people are sick". (As in, "you'd better come to work even if you are sick, or else")

---

But yeah, good point about the awareness of how diseases spread not going away anytime soon - should definitely help with the next flu season.

BorneTobyWilde

I've said it many times, this disease has been in Europe since Dec or earlier, and in Wuhan since Oct mostly likely. You don't fine these things straight away.

US2

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

I've said it many times, this disease has been in Europe since Dec or earlier, and in Wuhan since Oct mostly likely. You don't fine these things straight away.

Why then were ICUs not overwhelmed, there would have been thousands of cases of unknown viral pneumonia all over europe ?

fullstop

eagle eye wrote: »

So based on reports from many parts of the country today from personal friends it appears lots of people were out and about today.

Our idiot government again being so stupid. The famous old saying 'if you give them an inch, they'll take a mile' comes to mind. They put out a phased reopening plan and that's the inch. How could you be so stupid to think that people will stay inside when you are telling them things are looking good?

Sure they can’t ****ing win. If they didn’t come out with the detailed plan you’d probably be on here saying they haven’t a clue what happens next and it’s not fair to keep the country in the dark about everything. They give a detailed plan for the next few months and it’s up to people to adhere to the rules, but of course every selfish prick sees it as a green light to have all their friends round for a boozy bbq in the sun. It’s those idiots you should be moaning about.

Xertz

US2 wrote: »

Why then were ICUs not overwhelmed, there would have been thousands of cases of unknown viral pneumonia all over europe ?

R0 at very low numbers due to a small number of relatively cases perhaps. You hit steepening area on the curve where it explodes as the growth is exponential.

Nice maths explanation and something similar should be run regularly on TV and online by the Irish Government, EU, WHO anyone with any interest in getting facts about the reality of the restrictions / lockdowns and spread:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

If you had nice, sensible maths explainers like this - people would at least know exactly why they're being asked to stay in 2km zones and wouldn't be relying just on googling or wandering facebook/twitter and landing on some conspiracy theorist.

Miike

We would have seen a lot of pneumonia of unknown cause. There would've been a retrospective analysis once China sequenced the genome of what they were they calling "pneumonia of unknown cause". It's possible it was here earlier than the first ID'd case but not months earlier.

forgodssake

Agree somewhat with poster saying Covid 19 was here since oct/Nov last year. As a nurse of 21 years I have never before seen the number of pneumonia related admissions before. Also on a side note I haven't needed /taken antibiotics since 2010 . Last year I had 2 courses for throat/chest infections which absolutely floored me.

Stheno

Miike wrote: »

We would have seen a lot of pneumonia of unknown cause. There would've been a retrospective analysis once China sequenced the genome of what they were they calling "pneumonia of unknown cause". It's possible it was here earlier than the first ID'd case but not months earlier.

Is it logical then Mike that if you take the stats that 1 in 5 with this need hospitalization, and that this pneumonia of unknown cause was COVID that potentially there was wider spread in the community earlier than believed?

Sorry for all the ifs, buts and maybe:)

iguana

US2 wrote: »

Why then were ICUs not overwhelmed, there would have been thousands of cases of unknown viral pneumonia all over europe ?

Maybe because it's less infectious than assumed. The exponential growth is slower. It takes much longer to build to a surge. In addition to that, last winter was actually a particularly bad one for people being hospitalised with flu. There are lots of news articles from all over Europe, the US and Asia from late Dec, early Jan detailing the unusual amount of flu patients in hospitals.

fritzelly

iguana wrote: »

Maybe because it's less infectious than assumed. The exponential growth is slower. It takes much longer to build to a surge. In addition to that, last winter was actually a particularly bad one for people being hospitalised with flu. There are lots of news articles from all over Europe, the US and Asia from late Dec, early Jan detailing the unusual amount of flu patients in hospitals.

And there is the fact - for flu, not some mysterious new virus

iguana

fritzelly wrote: »

And there is the fact - for flu, not some mysterious new virus

Flu, like the Italian "patient zero" was repeatedly diagnosed with before Covid nearly killed him.

BorneTobyWilde

https://streamfare.net/foxnews.html

Trump Town Hall

ACitizenErased

fritzelly wrote: »

And there is the fact - for flu, not some mysterious new virus

Flu is blamed for the majority of stuff here without testing. I was quite badly sick in January and the doctor said it was the flu without testing me. I'm fairly certain this is a regular occurrence.

fritzelly

iguana wrote: »

Flu, like the Italian "patient zero" was repeatedly diagnosed with before Covid nearly killed him.

Where does it say he was lab diagnosed with flu and not clinically diagnosed

fritzelly

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Flu is blamed for the majority of stuff here without testing. I was quite badly sick in January and the doctor said it was the flu without testing me. I'm fairly certain this is a regular occurrence.

If people end up in hospital they get tested - the doc saying it's flu is not a licence to test you, pointless waste of money for most people

Miike

Stheno wrote: »

Is it logical then Mike that if you take the stats that 1 in 5 with this need hospitalization, and that this pneumonia of unknown cause was COVID that potentially there was wider spread in the community earlier than believed?

Sorry for all the ifs, buts and maybe:)

That would be the case, yes. But we have no retrospective diagnoses of this type of pneumonia. If our first case WAS someone presenting with this type of pneumonia it would be logical to assume there are other patients. In fact even in an isolated case prior to this being declared a PHEIC by WHO, contact tracing would have picked up other cases, but again, this relies on us actually knowing what we're dealing with (which by January, we sort-of did. Sort of.)

Sorry to answer you're question with more ifs and buts :pac:

It's certainly food for thought. I'm not saying it's IMPOSSIBLE it wasn't here months earlier. I just think (with what we now know in relation to how this spreads) it's HIGHLY unlikely.

Miike

ACitizenErased wrote: »

Flu is blamed for the majority of stuff here without testing. I was quite badly sick in January and the doctor said it was the flu without testing me. I'm fairly certain this is a regular occurrence.

January is the peak of flu season. The likelihood you had flu is much higher than you having COVID19. Flu is a very serious illness and not to be scoffed at. It's debilitating. We generally don't test people in the community for flu unless they are severely ill, in which case you'll get tested in hospital.

cnocbui

US officials believe China covered up the extent of the coronavirus outbreak - and how contagious the disease is - to stock up on medical supplies needed to respond to it, intelligence documents show.

Chinese leaders "intentionally concealed the severity" of the pandemic from the world in early January, according to a four-page Department of Homeland Security report dated May 1 and obtained by The Associated Press.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/china-hid-coronavirus-severity-to-hoard-supplies-report-20200504-p54ph0.html

I rather suspected this was the case when reports came out of Chinese companies buying up a major chunk of the available PPE gear in Australia and shipping it to China before Australia was aware it would soon be needing it.

I hope the West can cooperate in formulating a reckoning for China's various reprehensible actions of late.

wakka12

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

I've said it many times, this disease has been in Europe since Dec or earlier, and in Wuhan since Oct mostly likely. You don't fine these things straight away.

And why all the deaths in Europe occurred so suddenly and simultaneously across the continent right after the outbreak in Italy was uncovered? Why did none of the thousands of tests done in Ireland or UK or any other european country in February come back positive? How come loads of old people werent dying? Why did excess deaths only increase in March in Europe?

I know it is odd that it took so long to arrive to Europe given how infectious we are told it is. But theres actually a lot more proof it wasnt circulating(widely at least) in Europe until March than there is that it was

Stheno

Miike wrote: »

That would be the case, yes. But we have no retrospective diagnoses of this type of pneumonia. If our first case WAS someone presenting with this type of pneumonia it would be logical to assume there are other patients. In fact even in an isolated case prior to this being declared a PHEIC by WHO, contact tracing would have picked up other cases, but again, this relies on us actually knowing what we're dealing with (which by January, we sort-of did. Sort of.)

Sorry to answer you're question with more ifs and buts :pac:

It's certainly food for thought. I'm not saying it's IMPOSSIBLE it wasn't here months earlier. I just think (with what we now know in relation to how this spreads) it's HIGHLY unlikely.

Ah you're grand, I was more thinking it was here mid Janusry rather than November.

Time will tell when they do mass antibody testing as to the extent of it

Thanks!