Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

fritzelly

cnocbui wrote: »

https://www.smh.com.au/world/north-america/china-hid-coronavirus-severity-to-hoard-supplies-report-20200504-p54ph0.html

I rather suspected this was the case when reports came out of Chinese companies buying up a major chunk of the available PPE gear in Australia and shipping it to China before Australia was aware it would soon be needing it.

I hope the West can cooperate in formulating a reckoning for China's various reprehensible actions of late.

Asked the question many many threads ago would this make countries think about having so much supply dependent on China
There used to be a time when countries all had supply chains feeding other countries so we were all inter dependent on each other but if one chain broke down you could easily switch
Now we rely so much on China for everything - tho it is changing as other Asian countries try to get in on the game

castletownman

Come to think of it, I know of at least two people who were admitted to hospital with pneumonia around the same time straddling Nov-Dec (although in mitigation both were elderly but one of them almost died). And I have said on here before that I had the worst bout of "flu" I have ever had around the same time. Was still coughing my lungs up now and again until February but only missed one day of work.

And I am starting to panic a bit now because if what I had WAS c19, then there was a girl who was doing a week's work experience in my work-place in February who has since contracted the virus and has been heavily sedated in hospital for a while. Crazy to think I may have spread it.

Miike

Stheno wrote: »

Ah you're grand, I was more thinking it was here mid Janusry rather than November.

Time will tell when they do mass antibody testing as to the extent of it

Thanks!

Yeah I'm really looking forward to the data from antibody testing, to be honest. We have some hurdles to jump over before that comes online though!

In another vein I'm also really looking forward to the RCTs on BCG vaccination as prophylaxis. Article for anyone interested: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31025-4/fulltext

fritzelly

castletownman wrote: »

And I am starting to panic a bit now because if what I had WAS c19, then there was a girl who was doing a week's work experience in my work-place in February who has since contracted the virus and has been heavily sedated in hospital for a while. Crazy to think I may have spread it.

Why panic??? IF you had it you survived and hopefully have some immunity

New Home

fritzelly wrote: »

Why panic??? IF you had it you survived and hopefully have some immunity

If you read the rest, you'll see he's not worried for himself.

fritzelly

New Home wrote: »

If you read the rest, you'll see he's not worried for himself.

Spreading it 2/3 months later

New Home

Was still coughing my lungs up now and again until February but only missed one day of work.

And I am starting to panic a bit now because if what I had WAS c19, then there was a girl who was doing a week's work experience in my work-place in February who has since contracted the virus and has been heavily sedated in hospital for a while. Crazy to think I may have spread it.

That bit.

fritzelly

New Home wrote: »

That bit.

Why would you be going round that long coughing up your lungs - give up the fags

Sounds more like a madey uppey story

Stheno

fritzelly wrote: »

Why panic??? IF you had it you survived and hopefully have some immunity

If and it's a big if, mass antibody testing reveals twice the number of people had it than tested (NPHET modelling assumption) and I was one of those people, I'd wonder if I had unknowingly spread it to someone I knew became severely I'll

I think that's where the poster was coming from and it's understandable but not something for op to fret over

I was at my doctor in mid March with a cough, sore throat, blocked nose, chills, tiredness (slept 18 hours a day for a week), chest and muscle pain , most of which I have with a sinus infection bar the chills, sleeping and muscle pain

As I'd no temperature she was happy I didnt have it. I'd be sent for a test with the same symptoms if they changed the criteria to remove priority groups tomorrow

BorneTobyWilde

wakka12 wrote: »

And why all the deaths in Europe occurred so suddenly and simultaneously across the continent right after the outbreak in Italy was uncovered? Why did none of the thousands of tests done in Ireland or UK or any other european country in February come back positive? How come loads of old people werent dying? Why did excess deaths only increase in March in Europe?

I know it is odd that it took so long to arrive to Europe given how infectious we are told it is. But theres actually a lot more proof it wasnt circulating(widely at least) in Europe until March than there is that it was

Of course people were dying, but it had no name, there was no test. People were dead and buried and no one questioned it.

Stheno

fritzelly wrote: »

Why would you be going round that long coughing up your lungs - give up the fags

Sounds more like a madey uppey story

Whatever I had in March ( was at doctor on March 10) cleared about a week ago, mainly the cough, chest pain and tiredness!

jobeenfitz

I was convinced that people saying the virus was here earlier were talking shyte. My 9 year old granddaughter came to Spain with me before Christmas.

She had a sore throat and a bit of a temperature leaving Spain on 6th Jan. Her mother had to bring her to doctor next day cos of high temperature. She got a rash and after ringing doctor she said to switch to another medicine as she may be allergic. She was really sick for about 5 days.

I came back to Ireland on 8th with similar symptoms but not as bad as granddaughter. I had gotten flu jab in Galway in November.

Im not saying it was covid 19 but I'm now more open on the issue.

fritzelly

Stheno wrote: »

Whatever I had in March ( was at doctor on March 10) cleared about a week ago, mainly the cough, chest pain and tiredness!

It seems a lot of people are trying to convince themselves they all had this in Nov/Dec/Jan
There is just no justification for it
Some strange flu like virus that flu tests showed negative for then some scientist somewhere in the world would have spotted it - you don't just have people ending up in hospital because of pneumonia and all tests are negative so you just say ah well next patient

Just going by the number of people on this thread if it was coronavirus then it would have been rampant thru the country and hospitals should have been overloaded - but they weren't

As for the other poster worrying about having spread it to here colleague - as Dr Holohan says, no blame for spreading it can be put on anyone, it like most viruses are easily spreadable. You could spread flu to someone and it kills them but if they didn't catch off you they could have caught it off someone else.

owlbethere

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20181101-the-mystery-viruses-far-worse-than-flu

This is a good read from November 2018.

shaveAbullock

jobeenfitz wrote: »

Im not saying it was covid 19 but I'm now more open on the issue.

That's it exactly, Europe has had had COVID-19 since november. That's why ICU's across the continent units have been full since December. All hospital stall were told not to tell the general public until March to avoid panic.

Now you will have some on here say what you and your daughter had was a nasty strain of the flu that was not covered in the vaccine(4 strains are covered in the vaccine)

But don't believe them, please make up your own mind.

Miike

owlbethere wrote: »

https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20181101-the-mystery-viruses-far-worse-than-flu

This is a good read from November 2018.

If you actually liked reading this and are into this kind of historical perspective on things you should check out the book "The Ghost Map" by Steven Johnson. Very good read!

Miike

shaveAbullock wrote: »

That's it exactly, Europe has had had COVID-19 since november. That's why ICU's across the continent units have been full since December. All hospital stall were told not to tell the general public until March to avoid panic.

Now you will have some on here say what you and your daughter had was a nasty strain of the flu that was not covered in the vaccine(4 strains are covered in the vaccine)

But don't believe them, please make up your own mind.

:pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac::pac:

fritzelly

shaveAbullock wrote: »

That's it exactly, Europe has had had COVID-19 since november. That's why ICU's across the continent units have been full since December. All hospital stall were told not to tell the general public until March to avoid panic.

Now you will have some on here say what you and your daughter had was a nasty strain of the flu that was not covered in the vaccine(4 strains are covered in the vaccine)

But don't believe them, please make up your own mind.

You forgot to mention 5G is the cause

Xertz

There was a bad flu going around at the end of last year.
I was vaccinated. I always get a flu jab, both because it’s just handy to have less chance of getting flu but also because I’ve vulnerable relatives I visit from time to time and need to protect them.

However, around Christmas Day I got a really bad set of flu like symptoms. Fever, headache, cough, chest tightness, when I was breathing out it sounded like Rice Krispies snap, crackle and pop. It had me in bed for nearly two weeks and I lost a full stone in weight.

I recovered but it took ages to get back to normal.

Other family members (who I don’t live with but would be in contact with a lot) also all got the same virus.

My dad got it and developed pneumonia (diagnosed based on blood oxygen), but was just treated at home with antibiotics, antivirals, steroids and an inhaler. He *still* has a cough and it’s only slowly improving this last couple of weeks.

He had a lung check - CT and bronchoscopy in February due to the seriousness of the cough but it revealed nothing of any concern.

Anyway, we all survived but I’d be fascinated to see if I have antibodies for Coronavirus / SARS-CoV-2.

I’m willing to accept it was most likely flu but even so, just would be very interring to see.

Stheno

fritzelly wrote: »

It seems a lot of people are trying to convince themselves they all had this in Nov/Dec/Jan
There is just no justification for it
Some strange flu like virus that flu tests showed negative for then some scientist somewhere in the world would have spotted it - you don't just have people ending up in hospital because of pneumonia and all tests are negative so you just say ah well next patient

Just going by the number of people on this thread if it was coronavirus then it would have been rampant thru the country and hospitals should have been overloaded - but they weren't

As for the other poster worrying about having spread it to here colleague - as Dr Holohan says, no blame for spreading it can be put on anyone, it like most viruses are easily spreadable. You could spread flu to someone and it kills them but if they didn't catch off you they could have caught it off someone else.

Eh I was responding to you saying someone with a cough for weeks was making something up

Dont think I ever claimed this was around since November

The illness I had was in March and took about six weeks to clear

RicketyCricket

shaveAbullock wrote: »

That's it exactly, Europe has had had COVID-19 since november. That's why ICU's across the continent units have been full since December. All hospital stall were told not to tell the general public until March to avoid panic.

Now you will have some on here say what you and your daughter had was a nasty strain of the flu that was not covered in the vaccine(4 strains are covered in the vaccine)

But don't believe them, please make up your own mind.

That some ****e you're spouting.

fritzelly

Stheno wrote: »

Eh I was responding to you saying someone with a cough for weeks was making something up

Dont think I ever claimed this was around since November

The illness I had was in March and took about six weeks to clear

Wasn't having a go at you, just airing my thoughts

jobeenfitz

fritzelly wrote: »

It seems a lot of people are trying to convince themselves they all had this in Nov/Dec/Jan
There is just no justification for it
Some strange flu like virus that flu tests showed negative for then some scientist somewhere in the world would have spotted it - you don't just have people ending up in hospital because of pneumonia and all tests are negative so you just say ah well next patient

Just going by the number of people on this thread if it was coronavirus then it would have been rampant thru the country and hospitals should have been overloaded - but they weren't

As for the other poster worrying about having spread it to here colleague - as Dr Holohan says, no blame for spreading it can be put on anyone, it like most viruses are easily spreadable. You could spread flu to someone and it kills them but if they didn't catch off you they could have caught it off someone else.

Maybe most of it was flu or something else and people are mistaken. Maybe there were some sporadic cases though.

If it was in any other European country earlier than first thought, then there's a decent chance it was also here. how can you be so sure it wasn't covid. We're they checking for it here in January?

Are we sure none of the people who died in Jan/Feb died from covid?

Miike

Xertz wrote: »

There was a bad flu going around at the end of last year.
I was vaccinated. I always get a flu jab, both because it’s just handy to have less chance of getting flu but also because I’ve vulnerable relatives I visit from time to time and need to protect them.

However, around Christmas Day I got a really bad set of flu like symptoms. Fever, headache, cough, chest tightness, when I was breathing out it sounded like Rice Krispies snap, crackle and pop. It had me in bed for nearly two weeks and I lost a full stone in weight.

I recovered but it took ages to get back to normal.

Other family members (who I don’t live with but would be in contact with a lot) also all got the same virus.

My dad got it and developed pneumonia (diagnosed based on blood oxygen), but was just treated at home with antibiotics, antivirals, steroids and an inhaler. He *still* has a cough and it’s only slowly improving this last couple of weeks.

He had a lung check - CT and bronchoscopy in February due to the seriousness of the cough but it revealed nothing of any concern.

Anyway, we all survived but I’d be fascinated to see if I have antibodies for Coronavirus / SARS-CoV-2.

I’m willing to accept it was most likely flu but even so, just would be very interring to see.

SARS-CoV-2 is very obvious in patients with severe illness in imaging studies. The CT would have showed bilateral ground glass and consolidative pulmonary opacities.

Xertz

shaveAbullock wrote: »

That's it exactly, Europe has had had COVID-19 since november. That's why ICU's across the continent units have been full since December. All hospital stall were told not to tell the general public until March to avoid panic .

No offence but, how the hell would you get *all* the ICU staff in Europe to do that. You’re talking about tens of thousands of hospitals and hundreds of thousands of staff. They’re not going to keep something like that a secret. It’s an impossible and ludicrous suggestion.

They’re not even all hospitals run by the same owners / management. Most EU countries, including Ireland, have public systems with a range of public and private providers and hospitals. Many EU countries have more of a universal public health insurance model than a direct provision one like the NHS.

If you’d an outbreak in hospitals you could count to 10 by the time it would be alerted to health agencies that track it and you would have had it in the media by lunch time. This is Europe, not China. There isn’t an ability or desire to do coverups like that. If anything, the systems are setup to do the complete opposite and you’d have had it published in various reports and journals, with academics rushing to get their papers out.

If SARS-CoV-2 was in Europe or North America late last year on a small scale, it would have had to be going unnoticed and being misidentified as flu and generic viral pneumonia.

shaveAbullock

RicketyCricket wrote: »

That some ****e you're spouting.

I'm not the one that said they contracted COVID-19 in November from visiting Spain.

Stheno

fritzelly wrote: »

Wasn't having a go at you, just airing my thoughts

Time will tell with antibody testing

Xertz

Miike wrote: »

SARS-CoV-2 is very obvious in patients with severe illness in imaging studies. The CT would have showed bilateral ground glass and consolidative pulmonary opacities.

Out of my own geeky curiosity, I would still like to have an antibody test whenever they become available.

Ficheall

Well, I had Covid-19 back in 2016.. :rolleyes:

fritzelly

Stheno wrote: »

Time will tell with antibody testing

Could be a long while before they even know how long the antibodies survive - haven't seen any research on follow ups to recovered patients

But lets hope a very long time

shaveAbullock

fritzelly wrote: »

Could be a long while before they even know how long the antibodies survive - haven't seen any research on follow ups to recovered patients

But lets hope a very long time

That's just it. Looking at other coronavirus it could be only a few months or it could be a few years.

I wonder how long it will before they know.

fritzelly

Xertz wrote: »

Out of my own geeky curiosity, I would still like to have an antibody test whenever they become available.

So would I, be happier knowing I've had it and have some immunity hopefully.
Never had any symptoms bar one day with a bit of an headache and a bit of a sore throat for about 24 hours (about 2 weeks after the first case here) - if that was it then I can thank the gods I beat it easily

Strazdas

fritzelly wrote: »

It seems a lot of people are trying to convince themselves they all had this in Nov/Dec/Jan
There is just no justification for it
Some strange flu like virus that flu tests showed negative for then some scientist somewhere in the world would have spotted it - you don't just have people ending up in hospital because of pneumonia and all tests are negative so you just say ah well next patient

Just going by the number of people on this thread if it was coronavirus then it would have been rampant thru the country and hospitals should have been overloaded - but they weren't

As for the other poster worrying about having spread it to here colleague - as Dr Holohan says, no blame for spreading it can be put on anyone, it like most viruses are easily spreadable. You could spread flu to someone and it kills them but if they didn't catch off you they could have caught it off someone else.

I was reading that scientists in the UK had retroactively tested samples taken in January and couldn't find any trace of the virus. It seems to be an urban myth that everyone had it a few months ago - none of this would tie in with the current scenario of people being in ICU and dying in large numbers.

2smiggy

Xertz wrote: »

No offence but, how the hell would you get *all* the ICU staff in Europe to do that. You’re talking about tens of thousands of hospitals and hundreds of thousands of staff. They’re not going to keep something like that a secret. It’s an impossible and ludicrous suggestion.

They’re not even all hospitals run by the same owners / management. Most EU countries, including Ireland, have public systems with a range of public and private providers and hospitals. Many EU countries have more of a universal public health insurance model than a direct provision one like the NHS.

If you’d an outbreak in hospitals you could count to 10 by the time it would be alerted to health agencies that track it and you would have had it in the media by lunch time. This is Europe, not China. There isn’t an ability or desire to do coverups like that.

If SARS-CoV-2 was in Europe or North America late last year on a small scale, it would have had to be going unnoticed and being misidentified as flu and generic viral pneumonia.

It's obvious, 5G was controlling them

fritzelly

2smiggy wrote: »

It's obvious, 5G was controlling them

Yep, the truth is here

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0QtGSw7anlI

Xertz

It most likely was flu but, given this is a new disease and symptoms seem to be varied in intensity who knows?
We probably are only really starting to get a sense of the symptoms and experience people who’ve had milder reactions and fought it off.

The hospital cases would be the extreme end of the scale and that’s where most of the research would probably be from.

It’s as GPs and specialist community clinics start to gather more and more data from cases they’ve encountered that you start to get a real sense of what the typical low to mid range experience is like.

That’s why I wouldn’t jump to a conclusion that what I had was COVID-19, but I also wouldn’t entirely rule it out entire. it would just be very interesting to see.

shaveAbullock

Xertz wrote: »

It most likely was flu but, given this is a new disease and symptoms seem to be varied in intensity who knows?
We probably are only really starting to get a sense of the symptoms and experience people who’ve had milder reactions and fought it off.

The hospital cases would be the extreme end of the scale and that’s where most of the research would probably be from.

It’s as GPs and specialist community clinics start to gather more and more data from cases they’ve encountered that you start to get a real sense of what the typical low to mid range experience is like.

That’s why I wouldn’t jump to a conclusion that what I had was COVID-19, but I also wouldn’t entirely rule it out entire. it would just be very interesting to see.

When it is known that a large number of the population contracted a strain of the flu that had particualy nasty systoms back in December, why would you even consider CODID-19?

Xertz

Strazdas wrote: »

I was reading that scientists in the UK had retroactively tested samples taken in January and couldn't find any trace of the virus. It seems to be an urban myth that everyone had it a few months ago - none of this would tie in with the current scenario of people being in ICU and dying in large numbers.

Except for the French retrospective analysis published this weekend that’s discovered in Paris in patients swabbed on 27 December. That’s been cited on major French news channels, not internet conspiracy sites.

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-un-cas-de-covid-19-repertorie-en-france-des-le-27-decembre-affirme-le-chef-d-un-service-de-reanimation-de-seine-saint-denis_3946867.html

France Info TV is a public service tv station owned by Radio France, France Televisions / France Media Monde and l'institue national de l’audiovisuel. Basically French equivalent of BBC News 24 or RTE News.

Micky 32

shaveAbullock wrote: »

When it is known that a large number of the population contracted a strain of the flu that had particualy nasty systoms back in December, why would you even consider CODID-19?

My father had a horrible dose of flu around December. Interestingly he had the flu vaccine and still got it.

fritzelly

Xertz wrote: »

Except for the French retrospective analysis published this weekend that’s discovered in Paris in patients swabbed on 27 December. That’s been cited on major French news channels, not internet conspiracy sites.

That's one patient out of all the samples tested - using boards.ie as a sample of Ireland, 10 million people had it here

owlbethere

Was this posted yet?

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080750/coronavirus-attacks-lining-blood-vessels-all-over-body-swiss

This infection could be a blood disorder attacking blood vessels.

fritzelly

owlbethere wrote: »

Was this posted yet?

https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3080750/coronavirus-attacks-lining-blood-vessels-all-over-body-swiss

This infection could be a blood disorder attacking blood vessels.

No more bad news please

Xertz

fritzelly wrote: »

That's one patient out of all the samples tested - using boards.ie as a sample of Ireland, 10 million people had it here

It was one positive in a group of 50 patients with pneumonia. The positive test was also retested to ensure it wasn’t a false positive.

The result has triggered wider research and analysis of other stored swabs.

Patients in December and January in France were not being tested for covid 19. One researcher was pursuing a retrospective analysis of older swabs.

France certainly has some of the world‘s leading virology labs and will definitely follow up by widening that study this week.

Turtwig

Xertz wrote: »

Except for the French retrospective analysis published this weekend that’s discovered in Paris in patients swabbed on 27 December. That’s been cited on major French news channels, not internet conspiracy sites.

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-un-cas-de-covid-19-repertorie-en-france-des-le-27-decembre-affirme-le-chef-d-un-service-de-reanimation-de-seine-saint-denis_3946867.html

France Info TV is a public service tv station owned by Radio France, France Televisions / France Media Monde and l'institue national de l’audiovisuel. Basically French equivalent of BBC News 24 or RTE News.

Iirc a similar candidate was found in Valencia Spain and in California U.S both predating Italy. These cases including the one quoted wouldn't really be evidence of the high numbers of flu cases being coronavirus. They'd actually support the case that this virus initially spread slowly, invisibly and globally. Then like all exponential growths become more and more prevalent.

Micky 32

fritzelly wrote: »

No more bad news please

Pinch of salt and all that, even though lots of posters on this thread can’t wait to post that bolloxology.

Xertz

Well it could mean that the seeds of a major spike which we saw in February/March were already in the community a couple of months earlier.

If for example it has a higher % of middling, mild or even almost asymptomatic cases, you could see how it suddenly mushroomed.

Also I wonder if the early cases could have been somewhat self-selecting mostly healthy people - those who are likely to have been on say far flung travel, business travellers, ski holiday types.

The people who seem to get the worst impact are also the people who are probably less likely to be out and about or globe trotting - if you’re very elderly or unwell, you’re not likely to be jetting off or mingling in offices, pubs, sports events etc

So I’m wondering if it’s possible there was an element of the first cases largely having hit people who were able to shake it off. Then as it became more established it ended up hitting far more vulnerable people and that’s where you got the explosive death tolls in elder care communities, etc etc

Hospitals and health systems wouldn’t really have noticed until you’d a very big spike in viral pneumonia cases that was above and beyond normal flu spikes.

So in Italy or Spain by the time they took action it was already too late. The U.K. and US both dithered and assumed it couldn’t get them because of largely all sorts of arrogance about health systems, exceptionalism and bonkers notions taken by political people or at least politicians picking the bits of science they liked.

The US and UK had both been ranked as 1 and 2 in most able to deal with a pandemic and look at how it actually panned out.

February 2020:

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/these-are-the-countries-best-prepared-for-health-emergencies/

Miike

Turtwig wrote: »

Iirc a similar candidate was found in Valencia Spain and in California U.S both predating Italy. These cases including the one quoted wouldn't really be evidence of the high numbers of flu cases being coronavirus. They'd actually support the case that this virus initially spread slowly, invisibly and globally. Then like all exponential growths become more and more prevalent.

And would also completely contradict the pathogenesis of this virus.

Xertz

That Global Health Security report actually ranked Germany very badly on its ability to control the spread of an outbreak and the U.K. and USA very highly. The reality was the complete opposite!

https://www.ghsindex.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/2019-Global-Health-Security-Index.pdf

See tables at the end of the PDF

Turtwig

I'm wondering the same re tourism. Ireland looks to have got heavily seeded from tourists returning home.

The U.S. And UK gutted their own defences over successive years. Furthermore, they elected incompetent leaders. Which does matter.The U.S. leaving the key positions vacant. That's before you get into the inequality problem. The U.S. was never going to fare well again any pandemic.

Miike

Miike wrote: »

And would also completely contradict the pathogenesis of this virus.

Not really. An R0 of say 2 means one person arrives with it, a week later, 2 more have it, a week later, it's up to 8, then, 32 etc. (I just woke up so can't be bothered getting the right math.)

After a month, it's still not a crazy amount. Then it starts to balloon at some point and starts to find people's parents and all the vulnerable in society.


Think of it this way.. If you fold a piece of paper 42 times, if will be thick enough to reach the moon, but you certainly wouldn't imagine that happen after you've folded it seven times.

Same as the virus seven weeks in after the first infection arrives.. Numbers still relatively low with the majority having either no or mild symptoms. Maybe one or two people have developed pneumonia. Hospitals wouldn't think anything is up.