Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Ha Long Bay

tigger123 wrote: »

Is there any indication for creches being open? Apart from the one or two lines in the Governments plan (that really didn't give any clarity).

Phase 4 on the 20th July or phase 3 on the 29th June for essential workers.

https://www.gov.ie/en/news/58bc8b-taoiseach-announces-roadmap-for-reopening-society-and-business-and-u/

Jim_Hodge

Deleted User wrote: »

Another genius who's been posting here for a month but still hasn't the first clue of the basics.
Read something other than a message board and educate yourself.

Pardon me Einstein. It still doesn't mean cases won't grow which is the salient point.

I didn't realise the time spent here equals credence.

eagle eye

We are two weeks away from Spain's second wave. Any plans made anywhere are dependent on what happens there.

MipMap

CV19.jpg

political analyst wrote: »

If the R number in Ireland is below 1, then why won't the government let cafés and restaurants re-open earlier than the date currently planned?

CV19.jpg


If the Ro is 0.9 and we have 10,000 infected people spreading it in the community in 20 months we will have just 1,351 people infected in the community.
If the Ro is 1.3 we will have 1.4 million infected in the community in 20 months - assuming 1 month is a reasonable estimate of how long a person is infectious for.

WoollyRedHat

coastwatch wrote: »

I think travel within the EU could be re-started in a couple of months, without the need to isolate, based on the countries achieving an agreed testing standard.
Thats how the EU could re-engage at this stage, after the long silence.

While that would be nice, there is an element of risk, if done too early ans someone fell through the gaps, it could set everything off again.

Although I would support a phased return of travel when it is deemed safe; manageable and we have better testing and increased capacity with quicker turnaround of results e.g. domestic, EU and then international.

timsey tiger

MipMap wrote: »

CV19.jpg

CV19.jpg


If the Ro is 0.9 and we have 10,000 infected people spreading it in the community in 20 months we will have just 1,351 people infected in the community.
If the Ro is 1.3 we will have 1.4 million infected in the community in 20 months - assuming 1 month is a reasonable estimate of how long a person is infectious for.

That's in 19 months, you are starting time at 1 month from now instead of 0 months from now.

10,000 * 0.9^20 = 1,216

Xertz

Is this for real?

Aer Lingus 8:45am Belfast City to London Heathrow:

https://twitter.com/kellybonner/status/1257323982400831491?s=21

Looks quite full and no social distancing or masks applied at all.

I realise this is an internal flight within UK jurisdiction, even though it's Aer Lingus, but it seems very surprising how easy going it all is.

wadacrack

The RO naturally diminishes in time as the virus has passed through the most vulnerable. Viral load clearly plays a role in this. As Children as thought not to carry the disease as well as say Flu. Sweden have not experienced exponential growth and R) below 1 with no lockdown. No exponential increase in deaths. The modelling which is used for the Flu has not transpired with this virus. The unknown is how deadly this virus is within society who are not vulnerable. 0.5 % Death rate with Irish healthcare workers is still quite high however. ICU and ventilation numbers have been way off too and are not a good indicator. Even some serious cases do not require ventilation , the issue of blood clots and heart failure seems to be a concern. The peak in Europe is coming to an end and I think it is likely to be ok with social distancing to supress the virus. Possibly nxt winter could be dangerous period.

Just Saying

Stheno wrote: »

I'm wondering if they went with the most drawn out timetable they could? Cillian de Gascun said at the weekend the opening could be accelerated if things went well

And does anyone find it a coincidence the pubs are to open after the last Summer bank holiday?

I think the slow pace of reopening is the scientists trying to get evidence of what each stage does to the R...This would be very useful in terms of knowing how to control a potential second wave in the future...

podgeandrodge

MD1990 wrote: »

deaths really going down now in Ireland,Italy,Spain & in the UK

Looks like we are now finally past the peak across Europe.

Even Sweden with no lockdown have not seen huge growth in the last week.

A lot of countries seem to be reaching peaks at a similar time regardless of the extent of their lockdowns.

Frank Bullitt

So my uncle died yesterday, non covid-19 related, but now my family can't have a proper send off for a great man.

Yesterday was tough for me, he was my godfather and sitting here in Canada, knowing that there can't be a proper funeral, I can't go home and be with my family, that my cousins who are in Australia and America can't go home and see him off, that is what really hurts.

The mental impact on this whole thing is really starting to have an impact on me. I have been living in Canada for 7 years but I go home frequently. This time though, I can't, and I have no real clue when I can either.

I see a lot of back and forth in this thread about opening up, people having a go at each other over this and that, and so on. Lads and ladies, be good to each other, please. I am clearly in a reflective state right now, so if this post comes across as soppy or conflicting, I do apologise.

My uncle really took an interest in my skill at art from a young age, this has grown into a career as a designer. I can't thank him enough for that, and now he is gone, and I can't say goodbye to him properly. So many families are going through this also, and I feel and grieve for them as well.

Be good to each other through this, and take care.

Rest in peace, Uncle Joey.

Miike

Gintonious wrote: »

So my uncle died yesterday, non covid-19 related, but now my family can't have a proper send off for a great man.

Yesterday was tough for me, he was my godfather and sitting here in Canada, knowing that there can't be a proper funeral, I can't go home and be with my family, that my cousins who are in Australia and America can't go home and see him off, that is what really hurts.

The mental impact on this whole thing is really starting to have an impact on me. I have been living in Canada for 7 years but I go home frequently. This time though, I can't, and I have no real clue when I can either.

I see a lot of back and forth in this thread about opening up, people having a go at each other over this and that, and so on. Lads and ladies, be good to each other, please. I am clearly in a reflective state right now, so if this post comes across as soppy or conflicting, I do apologise.

My uncle really took an interest in my skill at art from a young age, this has grown into a career as a designer. I can't thank him enough for that, and now he is gone, and I can't say goodbye to him properly. So many families are going through this also, and I feel and grieve for them as well.

Be good to each other through this, and take care.

Rest in peace, Uncle Joey.

Sorry for your loss G. His memory will certainly live on with you

Frank Bullitt

Miike wrote: »

Sorry for your loss G. His memory will certainly live on with you

Thank you Miike, stay safe.

Sam Russell

bekker wrote: »

Agreed that there are many obvious benefits, but there are downsides to that type of centralised control. There were good reasons for certain competencies being omitted from various treaties.

Attempting to add-in health would possibly be the fastest way to fracture the already fragile EU. Even simply attempting to establish a central strategic reserve of PPE would run into a wall of political and commercial problems.

Countries are at loggerheads and forming blocks over such a relatively simple issue as equitable treatment of lorry drivers which affects a tiny % of populations. Heath affects the whole population and is a hot button issue in the national politics of most states.

I am not talking about health being a competence. I am talking about Public Health - those measures taken at a macro level to improve the health of the whole population.

The EU already has such competence when it comes to safety of toys, animal health, GMOs, the ecology, and other macro matters. Extending this to Public Health would be a natural progression to allow the EU to promote better outcomes for its citizens.

Note: Health matters are not the same as Public Health matters. Your doctor is concerned with the outcome for you, but Public Health is concerned with the benefit for the whole population - of putting folic acid in the flour to safeguard babies from spina-bifida, for example. Or putting fluoride in the water supply to improve dental health. Or which vaccines should be given to children to protect them from those diseases for which vaccines are available and effective. These are not matters for clinicians who treat individual patients, but have to be prescribed by national governments, or by the EU (if it part of their remit).

If this pandemic teaches us anything, it should be that individual countries are unable to work in isolation and must join forces to combat such threats.

Dyr

RobertKK wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FintanYTWalsh/status/1257252935177830402?s=20

Jacinta Ardern thanks her lucky stars her country is not Ireland, the face she makes when she talks about us.

If we'd taken the path New Zealand had we'd be in their fortuitious position that they are now

Of course, when that was suggested at the start of all this, you had a deluge of 24 carat gob****es on here decrying the notion of such measures as pointless and counter productive. They're still proffering up their opinions unhindered.

If there's one thing that has always been the hallmark of the chattering classes in this country its the desire to ape those they consider our betters and look for their approval.

New Home

Gintonious wrote: »

So my uncle died yesterday, non covid-19 related, but now my family can't have a proper send off for a great man.

I'm really sorry for the loss of your uncle and for your being so far away from him and your family and not being able to say goodbye properly.

May he rest in peace.

Peanut Butter Jelly

Even though some may find it over the top, I do think that if the numbers don't continue to drop when the first stage of these restrictions is lifted, then there should be no move to phase 2 until there is in my opinion. If there's a rise, then I would be all for moving back to where we are now. 3 weeks spent in lockdown now could prevent 6 or 9 in the future

podgeandrodge

podgeandrodge wrote: »

A lot of countries seem to be reaching peaks at a similar time regardless of the extent of their lockdowns.

If this was circulating in December (or even before) and people dying with it (as seems to be be proven by the postmortems in France and the USA), then it isn't surprising that it has worked its way through this stage at a similar speed across Europe. The lockdowns were much later in the trajectory of the virus that we thought they were

ZX7R

DebDynamite wrote: »

In a couple of months, Ireland isn’t even going to he opened up to its own citizens! (Well, bar the ones who live in Northern Ireland - they have free rein). We have to wait until 20th July to travel more than 20km! Talk of allowing international tourism to start again is ludicrous

According to French midea, France plans no quarantine for EU, UK and Schengen region flying in to the county tweeted by the French embassy in the UK.
Flights to resume as there lockdown ends some flights could be as early as next Monday.

ZX7R

ZX7R wrote: »

According to French midea, France plans no quarantine for EU, UK and Schengen region flying in to the county tweeted by the French embassy in the UK.
Flights to resume as there lockdown ends some flights could be as early as next Monday.

I think that there is still some confusion about that, as the legal text seen today doesn't exclude EU and UK from quarantine requirements (at least that's what the guardian was reporting).

But I think it does make sense. EUrope seems to all the at the same stage now. It is Africa and the Americas that should be quarantined

Miike

Sam Russell wrote: »

I am not talking about health being a competence. I am talking about Public Health - those measures taken at a macro level to improve the health of the whole population.

The EU already has such competence when it comes to safety of toys, animal health, GMOs, the ecology, and other macro matters. Extending this to Public Health would be a natural progression to allow the EU to promote better outcomes for its citizens.

Note: Health matters are not the same as Public Health matters. Your doctor is concerned with the outcome for you, but Public Health is concerned with the benefit for the whole population - of putting folic acid in the flour to safeguard babies from spina-bifida, for example. Or putting fluoride in the water supply to improve dental health. Or which vaccines should be given to children to protect them from those diseases for which vaccines are available and effective. These are not matters for clinicians who treat individual patients, but have to be prescribed by national governments, or by the EU (if it part of their remit).

If this pandemic teaches us anything, it should be that individual countries are unable to work in isolation and must join forces to combat such threats.

There is a Ted Talk podcast with Larry Brilliant who touches on how important it is for everyone to come together in fighting this from a public health and pandemic readiness standpoint. He talks about how some countries were/are so ill prepared for anything of this scale despite the stark warnings of the past and what some nations did in response. It's a short one, about 15 minutes if I remember correctly and its geared towards the general public not people well versed in epidemiology so its generally free of the high falutin language. Well worth a listen if you've got a bit of downtime

Stheno

Peanut Butter Jelly wrote: »

Even though some may find it over the top, I do think that if the numbers don't continue to drop when the first stage of these restrictions is lifted, then there should be no move to phase 2 until there is in my opinion. If there's a rise, then I would be all for moving back to where we are now. 3 weeks spent in lockdown now could prevent 6 or 9 in the future

Eh if the numbers dont drop in the next two weeks we wont even get to phase 1!

stephenjmcd

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think that there is still some confusion about that, as the legal text seen today doesn't exclude EU and UK from quarantine requirements (at least that's what the guardian was reporting).

But I think it does make sense. EUrope seems to all the at the same stage now. It is Africa and the Americas that should be quarantined

https://twitter.com/FranceintheUK/status/1256990864271986691?s=19

Blanco100

Plans to reboot German football league has been thrown into doubt as 10 players have recently tested positive.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/2020/05/04/sports-return-lockdown-latest-live-premier-league-clubs-divided/

ZX7R

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I think that there is still some confusion about that, as the legal text seen today doesn't exclude EU and UK from quarantine requirements (at least that's what the guardian was reporting).

But I think it does make sense. EUrope seems to all the at the same stage now. It is Africa and the Americas that should be quarantined

The quarantine legislation went to there government for approval, it appears that to put EU citizens in quarantine breaches EU law and the Schengen area is also protected, reading about it on another site ,
I don't understand the technical stuff to be honest

poppers

Blanco100 wrote: »

Plans to reboot German football league has been thrown into doubt as 10 players have recently tested positive.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/2020/05/04/sports-return-lockdown-latest-live-premier-league-clubs-divided/

10 people not necessaraily players out of 1700 test. unless a vacinnce is found this is going to be the new norm

hmmm

Peanut Butter Jelly wrote: »

Even though some may find it over the top, I do think that if the numbers don't continue to drop when the first stage of these restrictions is lifted, then there should be no move to phase 2 until there is in my opinion. If there's a rise, then I would be all for moving back to where we are now. 3 weeks spent in lockdown now could prevent 6 or 9 in the future

If the numbers start rising, it will mean that something we have done in the most recent phase has caused it. The good thing about phasing is hopefully we only have to roll back the most recent measures, rather than implementing a full lock down.

But no-one really knows what will happen do they?

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

https://twitter.com/FranceintheUK/status/1256990864271986691?s=19

I know. But that tweet contradicts the text of the bill itself, according to the Guardian (which is only draft, and is being debated in both houses of the French parliament this week). I’ll wait until the final bill is passed before raising my hopes too much. This is a big deal

ZX7R

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I know. But that tweet contradicts the text of the bill itself, according to the Guardian (which is only draft, and is being debated in both houses of the French parliament this week). I’ll wait until the final bill is passed before raising my hopes too much. This is a big deal

Looking at French news reports it appears the draft has been amended and it went before the first house of parliament today

speckle

Xertz wrote: »

Is this for real?

Aer Lingus 8:45am Belfast City to London Heathrow:

https://twitter.com/kellybonner/status/1257323982400831491?s=21

Looks quite full and no social distancing or masks applied at all.

I realise this is an internal flight within UK jurisdiction, even though it's Aer Lingus, but it seems very surprising how easy going it all is.

Interesting going by the hair and bald patches seems to be mainly men.

wakka12

NH2013 wrote: »

Very interesting, and begs the question as to why all cases were asymptomatic, were they a particularly healthy bunch, something in the diet, manual labour etc that made them all not feel any major effects of the virus?

Or could it be that if an asymptomatic person spreads the virus it doesn't pack as much of a punch as a symptomatic person?

Certainly something that warrants looking into.

I hate how these articles NEVER have a follow up. Like are they asymptomatic or just havnt been monitored long enough to see who shows symptoms?

Cases on the Diamond Princess showed that the rate of asymptomatic was the same amongst the elderly and very young. It was only 50% among the passengers in their 20's, and roughly same for those in their 60s,70s,80s.

WoollyRedHat

Surely public health of a nation should trump freedom of movement whether it be EU/Schengen area, during a pandemic?

I would not support Irish people travelling to France or vice versa for travel during this time. I imagine a lot of people would be of the same mind.

wakka12

Almost 200 deaths in India today. By far the highest so far in a day. High number of new cases too, 4000. Could India really be going through the start of an epidemic only now in the midst of a harsh nationwide lockdown? Or is it just people/deaths actually being finally tested for now?

kilkenny31

Stheno wrote: »

Eh if the numbers dont drop in the next two weeks we wont even get to phase 1!

The numbers are dropping. Deaths, new cases, hospitalisations, ICU. All down. By next week I'd say maybe between 10-20 deaths per day. Under 200 new cases.

eagle eye

kilkenny31 wrote:

The numbers are dropping. Deaths, new cases, hospitalisations, ICU. All down. By next week I'd say maybe between 10-20 deaths per day. Under 200 new cases.

So your saying we'll be back to where we were when we decided we had to lockdown?

WoollyRedHat

WoollyRedHat wrote: »

Surely public health of a nation should trump freedom of movement whether it be EU/Schengen area, during a pandemic?

I would not support Irish people travelling to France or vice versa for travel during this time. I imagine a lot of people would be of the same mind.

But why would anybody travel right now? Nowhere to stay, nothing to do. This is about facilitating family connections and lives that span borders (like mine, between UK and Ireland). When tourism kicks off in a few months I’d think that all of Europe will be in a very similar place with the virus and benefits of travel economically will outweigh the small risk of increasing contagion

kilkenny31

eagle eye wrote: »

So your saying we'll be back to where we were when we decided we had to lockdown?

Come on. That's a ridiculous statement. At that point the numbers were grown close to exponentially. This time they are falling and the umbers in ICU didn't get anywhere near the way they looked like they were going to. Stop the nonsense.

WoollyRedHat

[Deleted User] wrote: »

But why would anybody travel? Nowhere to stay, nothing to do. This is about facilitating family connections and lives that span borders (like mine, between UK and Ireland). When tourism kicks off in a few months I’d think that all of Europe will be in a very similar place with the virus and benefits of travel economically will outweigh the small risk of increasing contagion

That is provided the risk of contagion is quite small and can be managed. Appropriate measures need to be taken to protect people, what we don't need is a free for all. I agree if there was nowhere to stay likelihood of many people travelling abroad is slim, but we need to be careful and not lower our guard all the same. It remains my opinion that safeguards have to be put in place to avoid new cases springing up, especially once containment is achieved. The consequences of secondary waves occuring is still a real threat and it only takes one case for everything to spiral out of control again.

BorneTobyWilde

New Zealand a mile up the road from Antarctica boasting about beating Covid 19 first. WTF . They never had a problem in the first place. Had 6 cases and shut down whole place and allowed no one into country from early March. They took the '' prevention is better than cure'' attitude, and they stamped it out, but it was just a spark.
Once they open up they actually might get infected, as they never did.

Ficheall

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Come on. That's a ridiculous statement. At that point the numbers were grown close to exponentially. This time they are falling and the umbers in ICU didn't get anywhere near the way they looked like they were going to. Stop the nonsense.

Did you not notice the restrictions that were put in place to stop the exponential growth?

kilkenny31

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

New Zealand a mile up the road from Antarctica boasting about beating Covid 19 first. WTF . They never had a problem in the first place. Had 6 cases and shut down whole place and allowed no one into country from early March. They took the '' prevention is better than cure'' attitude, and they stamped it out, but it was just a spark.
Once they open up they actually might get infected, as they never did.

So you agree they did beat it then. I think preventing the spread and pushing the virus out of the country could most definalty be classed as beating it.

Non solum non ambulabit

poppers wrote: »

10 people not necessaraily players out of 1700 test. unless a vacinnce is found this is going to be the new norm

Exactly. Well into 2021/22 players will still be testing positive. Football will have to continue, just like many other businesses.

kilkenny31

Ficheall wrote: »

Did you not notice the restrictions that were put in place to stop the exponential growth?

Yes. They worked. Now we can start easing them. Or maybe we stay like this for ever?

ChelseaRentBoy

kilkenny31 wrote: »

The numbers are dropping. Deaths, new cases, hospitalisations, ICU. All down. By next week I'd say maybe between 10-20 deaths per day. Under 200 new cases.

I hope you are right but i fear you are wrong.

From what i witnessed over the last 3 days people think the emergency is over :mad:

Boggles

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Yes. They worked. Now we can start easing them. Or maybe we stay like this for ever?

If they could start easing them, they would have all ready.

A lot has to take place before that happens, we are not there yet, hopefully we are when they start easing.

Larger scale community testing should tell us a lot in the next 10 days.

Jim_Hodge

Jim_Hodge wrote: »

Pardon me Einstein. It still doesn't mean cases won't grow which is the salient point.

I didn't realise the time spent here equals credence.

Great. Except you're wrong again Jim. But glad you admit you have no credibility.

Non solum non ambulabit

poppers wrote: »

10 people not necessaraily players out of 1700 test. unless a vacinnce is found this is going to be the new norm

Exactly. Well into 2021/22 players will still be testing positive. Football will have to continue, just like many other businesses.

BorneTobyWilde

kilkenny31 wrote: »

So you agree they did beat it then. I think preventing the spread and pushing the virus out of the country could most definalty be classed as beating it.

Feels to me they never actually had a fight to begin with. I expect they'll open, and then actually end up like the rest of us.

BorneTobyWilde

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Feels to me they never actually had a fight to begin with. I expect they'll open, and then actually end up like the rest of us.

I'd say that they will probably maintain mandatory quarantine for arrivals into the country for as long as it takes. Maybe until a vaccine

Non solum non ambulabit

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

I hope you are right but i fear you are wrong.

From what i witnessed over the last 3 days people think the emergency is over :mad:

Where do you live? No change anywhere near me. Everyone still following the guidelines. I think this weekend has shown that people are still on board in a serious way.