Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

wakka12

UK will overtake Italy in number of deaths tomorrow, France will also overtake Spain.

Brazil will tomorrow or the day after that become the country with the 6th highest number of deaths worldwide

Daemonic

wakka12 wrote: »

UK will overtake Italy in number of deaths tomorrow, France will also overtake Spain.

Brazil will tomorrow or the day after that become the country with the 6th highest number of deaths worldwide

Over 8,000 in serious/critical condition in Brazil according to worldometers. Brazil and Russia look like the next hotspots.

Cody montana

Daemonic wrote: »

Over 8,000 in serious/critical condition in Brazil according to worldometers. Brazil and Russia look like the next hotspots.

What have they in common?
Hummm.

spookwoman

Daemonic wrote: »

Over 8,000 in serious/critical condition in Brazil according to worldometers. Brazil and Russia look like the next hotspots.

Peru as well

wakka12

spookwoman wrote: »

Peru as well

And Ecuador and Mexico. All of South America will soon become the epicentre as cases go down in Europe

Polar101

The Irish plan for relaxing restrictions seems to be much slower than in other countries - except for maybe Northern Ireland where they'll probably agree on a plan sometime in 2037. I wonder how much pressure there would be to accelerate the different phases if evidence from other countries shows it could be done.

fritzelly

Polar101 wrote: »

The Irish plan for relaxing restrictions seems to be much slower than in other countries - except for maybe Northern Ireland where they'll probably agree on a plan sometime in 2037. I wonder how much pressure there would be to accelerate the different phases if evidence from other countries shows it could be done.

They said if things go well then they will accelerate it - this plan is based on the current situation and how it's slowing - it's not set in stone. And vice versa if it goes tits up then everything is off the table

ShineOn7

Cody montana wrote: »

What have they in common?
Hummm.

Hot women?

Eod100

lbj666 wrote: »

Vintners association are just making a token effort on behalf of their members. They could come up totally bomb proof plan and it still wouldnt fly, the point is society needs to opened up gradually, the pub is further down the peaking order from everything 3-6 weeks before it. Sorry but it is, most of us are still been told to stay out of the office til the same date ffs.

Yeah it is pie in the sky stuff tbh from them. They'd likely have to do all those measures when they open anyway so not like they can just open early with them.

I'd wonder could some pubs with seats that serve food try to reopen earlier as if they're restaurants. But I guess having a bar and license would rule out.

Vinters are saying they're being treated as second class citizens and all that but reality is even if people have few beers or wine at restaurants, they're used to sitting at a table as opposed to mingling with people. When pubs reopen it will be fairly big adjustment.

Wonder will it not be worth some pubs while to reopen like that or whether people will find it soulless and clinical and just drink at home with friends.

Arghus

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Yes. They worked. Now we can start easing them. Or maybe we stay like this for ever?

266 new cases today.

threeball

Daemonic wrote: »

Over 8,000 in serious/critical condition in Brazil according to worldometers. Brazil and Russia look like the next hotspots.

What do you want me to do about it was Bolsaneros response to a reporter who questioned the deaths.

Seems to be dead set on wiping out the native tribes too who would have no defence to this as they normally suffer abnormally from introduced diseases and viruses. He'll free up some land for more beef farmers if he suceeds.

stephenjmcd

Eod100 wrote: »

Yeah it is pie in the sky stuff tbh from them. They'd likely have to do all those measures when they open anyway so not like they can just open early with them.

I'd wonder could some pubs with seats that serve food try to reopen earlier as if they're restaurants. But I guess having a bar and license would rule out.

Vinters are saying they're being treated as second class citizens and all that but reality is even if people have few beers or wine at restaurants, they're used to sitting at a table as opposed to mingling with people. When pubs reopen it will be fairly big adjustment.

Wonder will it not be worth some pubs while to reopen like that or whether people will find it soulless and clinical and just drink at home with friends.

Depends really, smaller pubs probably wouldn't be worth their while.

But my local and I worked in it for 4 years, wouldn't have any issue implementing the measures, it would be fairly big, you might get a handful in Monday through Thursday no issue with distancing there. Fridays are hit and miss really, could get 50-60 in maybe but they'd be fairly well spaced out as theres limited bar seating and it's all tables anyway. Saturday would be busier, but again everyone at tables as they dont have anywhere for you to stand anyway, you'd be out in the middle of the floor in the way of everyone. Sunday unless theres a match on its quiet enough.

But where they do a good trade is with the food so that would be a huge part of their business, currently open with a takeaway menu. So for them it might hit the food turnover slightly but overall couldn't see major issues.

But for smaller pubs it probably wouldn't be feasible.

speckle

podgeandrodge wrote: »

Point being? :cool:

Was reading men more inclined to take risks in a pandemic or maybe it just points to a lack of women still in management positions. Nothing to do with how bald men are seen as potentialy attractive. :-)

Micky 32

Arghus wrote: »

266 new cases today.

You forgot to add less hospital admissions and ICU down from a peak to 93 from 160.

0gac3yjefb5sv7

I'm interested to see how the restaurants will work. What's to stop a group of six coming in for dinner and load of pints for 3/4 hours? Or will that be allowed.

fritzelly

Julianna Gorgeous Hydrant wrote: »

I'm interested to see how the restaurants will work. What's to stop a group of six coming in for dinner and load of pints for 3/4 hours? Or will that be allowed.

Pretty sure social distancing doesn't apply to group bookings - would be a bit weird going with the family and all seated 2 meters apart

Arghus

Micky 32 wrote: »

You forgot to add less hospital admissions and ICU down from a peak to 93 from 160.

Yes, I totally agree: the lockdown works and we should keep at our efforts to decrease the numbers further.

And let's not forget when the lockdown was initially brought in there were 77 cases in ICU and a lot less active cases overall. And we were all happy enough to stay home then.

Maestro85

Arghus wrote: »

Yes, I totally agree: the lockdown works and we should keep at our efforts to decrease the numbers further.

I always assumed the weekends showed a lull. Has this changed and have we caught up on tests?

wakka12

Maestro85 wrote: »

I always assumed the weekends showed a lull. Has this changed and have we caught up on tests?

The weekend lull does not seem as pronounced in Ireland as other countries

Arghus

Maestro85 wrote: »

I always assumed the weekends showed a lull. Has this changed and have we caught up on tests?

It's hard to know how much of an effect a bank holiday weekend would have on that. It's always a bit cloak and dagger.

fritzelly

Maestro85 wrote: »

I always assumed the weekends showed a lull. Has this changed and have we caught up on tests?

We have had weekends where it seemed quieter on the numbers front but it was never really that big of a difference

Micky 32

Arghus wrote: »

Yes, I total

And let's not forget when the lockdown was initially brought in there were 77 cases in ICU and a lot less active cases overall. And we were all happy enough to stay home then.

Yeah, at the time of the lockdown there were people infected that had no symptoms until a week or so later. But thankfully we are past the peak and on the downward trend. Cases are reducing nicely during this lockdown.

Arghus

Micky 32 wrote: »

Yeah, at the time of the lockdown there were people infected that had no symptoms until a week or so later. But thankfully we are past the peak and on the downward trend. Cases are reducing nicely during this lockdown.

I wouldn't start popping the champagne corks just yet. I'd rather see them reduce a bit more nicely still.

Micky 32

Maestro85 wrote: »

I always assumed the weekends showed a lull. Has this changed and have we caught up on tests?

Go by the ICU and hospital admission, it gives a more accurate picture.

Micky 32

Arghus wrote: »

I wouldn't start popping the champagne corks just yet. I'd rather see them reduce a bit more nicely still.

I’m not a doom and gloom merchant, i go by data. 160 down to 93 is a huge drop in the grand scheme of things. You can bet there will be a substantial drop from 93 in the next week or so without doubt.

BorneTobyWilde

Not all Super Heroes wear capes . or know how to wear a mask.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=9DAEa_1588581475

fritzelly

BorneTobyWilde wrote: »

Not all Super Heroes wear capes . or know how to wear a mask.

https://www.liveleak.com/view?t=9DAEa_1588581475

LMAO - who is that?

Arghus

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’m not a doom and gloom merchant, i go by data. 160 down to 93 is a huge drop in the grand scheme of things. You can bet there will be a substantial drop from 93 in the next week or so without doubt.

Of course, the numbers are going the right way, that's undeniable.

But when you say you look at the data, well certain other facts are undeniable too - the data clearly shows that we have higher numbers in ICU right now, today, than what we had when the lockdown began and the same goes for the number of active cases.

All those facts, taken as a whole, show two things quite clearly.

One: we've done well to stop the exponential spread of the virus. And that is absolutely brilliant.

Two: the job is not finished and the potential for a second spike in numbers is very real.

BorneTobyWilde

fritzelly wrote: »

LMAO - who is that?

Koen Geens is a Belgian politician

Tell me how

Strazdas wrote: »

I didn't read any malice into what she said. I think she was just looking for a similar sized country to compare NZ to (but she could have added her country is ahead of virtually everyone in recovering from Covid-19).

I agree. And even at that, I don't think she was judging how Ireland had reacted but more to say, 'Look at what some places have to do'.

She didn't lay blame or judge the strategy just said it was a more difficult scenario for everyone than it is in NZ.

Polar101

Apologies if this was already posted (boards running so slow I'm not reading everything), but there was an interesting story about the outgoing flu season.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0505/1136467-flu-vaccination-extension/

"Almost 11,000 cases of influenza were notified to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre during the flu season just ending, with 4,323 people needing hospitalisation, while 152 of them were admitted to intensive care. Overall 103 people died of influenza, bringing the total number of flu-associated deaths since the winter of 2017 to 461 people."

Those numbers sound very high to me, wouldn't want to see the healthcare system trying to handle both influenza and covid-19 at the same time. Obviously most influenza cases wouldn't be registered, but over 4000 people admitted to hospital makes you think.

Pitch n Putt

Arghus wrote: »

Of course, the numbers are going the right way, that's undeniable.

But when you say you look at the data, well certain other facts are undeniable too - the data clearly shows that we have higher numbers in ICU right now, today, than what we had when the lockdown began and the same goes for the number of active cases.

All those facts, taken as a whole, show two things quite clearly.

One: we've done well to stop the exponential spread of the virus. And that is absolutely brilliant.

Two: the job is not finished and the potential for a second spike in numbers is very real.

Yes the lockdown is working and good job done by all to reduce the numbers.

But even if we stay locked down for another few weeks/months there is going to be a spike when things open up again.

It all about how brave or cautious Dr Tony and NPHET are going to be when this happens.

Going on their current handling of things and the long drawn out opening up plan things don’t look good. We’re in danger of a yo yo open close situation.

This will be when these advisers need to be questioned and not just blindly follow their advice.

As mentioned on the radio earlier you’d swear we had one of the biggest outbreaks in the world with the cautious nature of things.

Gynoid

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

As mentioned on the radio earlier you’d swear we had one of the biggest outbreaks in the world with the cautious nature of things.

We have had a reasonably large outbreak given that we are a low population, low population density island. I know, I know about all the sighing arguments again and again how every single other place in the world is not counting deaths properly except for us who are apparently meticulous when it comes to that, but nonetheless despite having 0.06 % of the worlds population we have 0.6% of the worlds reported covid deaths. Oh I know, I know there will be recalculations but there is a 10 fold discrepancy there as we stand. Compared to many other countrues that one could trust to be fairly numerate and reasonably honest we did not do the greatest. Norway. Czechoslovakia. Croatia. New Zealand. Austria.

Policy makers also have to look to their historical legacies. They will be the ones whose names will be mentioned in 50 and 100 years not the anonymous people expunging their animus about "lockdowns" by grizzling on boards.

US2

Will I be able to have 7 or 8 pints of Guinness with my toasted sandwich in a restaurant when they open?

Seems unfair on publicans. I think restaurants and pubs should open on the same date, be that July or September.

Pitch n Putt

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Yes the lockdown is working and good job done by all to reduce the numbers.

But even if we stay locked down for another few weeks/months there is going to be a spike when things open up again.

It all about how brave or cautious Dr Tony and NPHET are going to be when this happens.

Going on their current handling of things and the long drawn out opening up plan things don’t look good. We’re in danger of a yo yo open close situation.

This will be when these advisers need to be questioned and not just blindly follow their advice.

As mentioned on the radio earlier you’d swear we had one of the biggest outbreaks in the world with the cautious nature of things.

This is true, and the reason why the way forward is not about lockdowns. Its about managing the new way we live - its about hygiene, social distancing, testing (with quick results) and tracing. We need to get those things right (especially testing and tracing) and not look to go into this cycle of lockdown and release and lockdown again

ChelseaRentBoy

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’m not a doom and gloom merchant, i go by data. 160 down to 93 is a huge drop in the grand scheme of things. You can bet there will be a substantial drop from 93 in the next week or so without doubt.

Eh not if some of these transfer to ICU

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136472-coronavirus-covid19-ireland/

stephenjmcd

Germany's R number holding very steady still. Current modeling gives R still at 0.71.

Graph attached shows pre and post lockdown so far.

paw patrol

Arghus wrote: »

Of course, the numbers are going the right way, that's undeniable.

But when you say you look at the data, well certain other facts are undeniable too - the data clearly shows that we have higher numbers in ICU right now, today, than what we had when the lockdown began and the same goes for the number of active cases.

All those facts, taken as a whole, show two things quite clearly.

One: we've done well to stop the exponential spread of the virus. And that is absolutely brilliant.

Two: the job is not finished and the potential for a second spike in numbers is very real.

at some stage people will mix together - the 2nd spike will happen no matter what we do

hopefully sooner rather than later says me

paw patrol

Leo & Harris and the HSE are bluffers

easy known Leo will be off on a EU or UN role while the rest of us are picking up the tab for this mis-adventure.

Plumbthedepths

paw patrol wrote: »

Leo & Harris and the HSE are bluffers

easy known Leo will be off on a EU or UN role while the rest of us are picking up the tab for this mis-adventure.

Leo and Co are hiding behind Holohan.

kilkenny31

paw patrol wrote: »

at some stage people will mix together - the 2nd spike will happen no matter what we do

hopefully sooner rather than later says me

Cant say that for sure. There are a lot of theories about what will happen this virus. Some predict what you suggest with a number of waves. Others suggest that far more people may have been infected than we know about thus some for of immunity may be present. Others suggest that it is natural for a virus mutate and to weaken over time, it has been suggested that this has already happened with weaker strains going around so it is possible thay future waves may not cause many hospitalisations or deaths.

podgeandrodge

boards seems back to normal for me. Even if life isn't

kilkenny31

podgeandrodge wrote: »

boards seems back to normal for me. Even if life isn't

Be careful. We may have a second wave.

paw patrol

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Cant say that for sure. There are a lot of theories about what will happen this virus. Some predict what you suggest with a number of waves. Others suggest that far more people may have been infected than we know about thus some for of immunity may be present. Others suggest that it is natural for a virus mutate and to weaken over time, it has been suggested that this has already happened with weaker strains going around so it is possible thay future waves may not cause many hospitalisations or deaths.

you're correct.
I don't think it'll be a huge significant spike but I'd say there will be an increase initially

and yes , i think many more exposed to it that official figures say.

Also I think that the virus was here a lot earlier than we think , with international travel and the large Chinese communities here etc.. I don't see why it would take so long to reach europe.

otnomart

Xertz wrote: »

Except for the French retrospective analysis published this weekend that’s discovered in Paris in patients swabbed on 27 December. That’s been cited on major French news channels, not internet conspiracy sites.

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-un-cas-de-covid-19-repertorie-en-france-des-le-27-decembre-affirme-le-chef-d-un-service-de-reanimation-de-seine-saint-denis_3946867.html

France Info TV is a public service tv station owned by Radio France, France Televisions / France Media Monde and l'institue national de l’audiovisuel. Basically French equivalent of BBC News 24 or RTE News.

Yes:
the French case - who contracted the virus on 27 December - therefore pre-dating all: Germany (Bavaria case end of January) and Spain (Valencia case, 13 February) and Italy (Codogno case, 21 February) is real.


Here is the interview in French:
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/j-avais-des-douleurs-au-thorax-le-patient-infecte-par-le-coronavirus-en-decembre-temoigne-1907944.html

Stheno

otnomart wrote: »

Yes:
the French case - who contracted the virus on 27 December - therefore pre-dating all: Germany (Bavaria case end of January) and Spain (Valencia case, 13 February) and Italy (Codogno case, 21 February) is real.


Here is the interview in French:
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/j-avais-des-douleurs-au-thorax-le-patient-infecte-par-le-coronavirus-en-decembre-temoigne-1907944.html

Was the French case not admitted to hospital and tested Dec 27?

So counting incubation infected at least a week before and hadn't travelled anywhere so caught it in France

So in Paris mid December?

stephenjmcd

Stheno wrote: »

Was the French case not admitted to hospital and tested Dec 27?

So counting incubation infected at least a week before and hadn't travelled anywhere so caught it in France

So in Paris mid December?

Correct, tested 27th December and with incubation period as you say, the person contracted it a good bit before the 27th

Stheno

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Correct, tested 27th December and with incubation period as you say, the person contracted it a good bit before the 27th

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-december-retested

Link to info on it from the guardian

Boggles

Stheno wrote: »

Was the French case not admitted to hospital and tested Dec 27?

So counting incubation infected at least a week before and hadn't travelled anywhere so caught it in France

So in Paris mid December?

But Dr Cohen pointed out that the patient's wife worked at a supermarket near Charles de Gaulle airport and could have come into contact with people who had recently arrived from China.

The patient's wife said that "often customers would come directly from the airport, still carrying their suitcases".

The wife didn't get sick. But her 43 year old husband and kids did.

otnomart

Stheno wrote: »

Was the French case not admitted to hospital and tested Dec 27?

So counting incubation infected at least a week before and hadn't travelled anywhere so caught it in France

So in Paris mid December?

Yes, my typo, I should have written: tested (on 27 Dec) instead of: contracted.
This means contracted anytime in the incubation period before that (2 weeks incubation period ?)