Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

ek motor

New Zealand PM: No open borders for a long time

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52540733

DevilsHaircut

Full French report.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643?via%3Dihub

eagle eye

ek motor wrote:

New Zealand PM: No open borders for a long time

I wish we had a leader like her. We'd be out of this mess already if we had.

Gynoid

Gynoid wrote: »

We have had a reasonably large outbreak given that we are a low population, low population density island. I know, I know about all the sighing arguments again and again how every single other place in the world is not counting deaths properly except for us who are apparently meticulous when it comes to that, but nonetheless despite having 0.06 % of the worlds population we have 0.6% of the worlds reported covid deaths. Oh I know, I know there will be recalculations but there is a 10 fold discrepancy there as we stand. Compared to many other countrues that one could trust to be fairly numerate and reasonably honest we did not do the greatest. Norway. Czechoslovakia. Croatia. New Zealand. Austria.

Policy makers also have to look to their historical legacies. They will be the ones whose names will be mentioned in 50 and 100 years not the anonymous people expunging their animus about "lockdowns" by grizzling on boards.

1992 wants its map of Europe back

seamus

MattS1 wrote: »

I'm interested to see how the restaurants will work. What's to stop a group of six coming in for dinner and load of pints for 3/4 hours? Or will that be allowed.

That'll be allowed, and its why the vinters had an urgent meeting with the Taoiseach yesterday. They're terrified that pubs that only serve beer and stack people wall-to-wall will become deeply unpopular, and people will shun them in favour of bar/restaurant premises.

Xertz wrote: »

Except for the French retrospective analysis published this weekend that’s discovered in Paris in patients swabbed on 27 December. That’s been cited on major French news channels, not internet conspiracy sites.

What is key to remember though, is that this still doesn't support the popular assertion that, "I think lots of people had Covid already last year".

Given that only a fraction of Covid infections end up in ICU, it is certain that in every country there were infections earlier than the first recorded one. France's first confirmed case was 24th January. So a case existing 4 weeks earlier than that shouldn't be a surprise. We know that one person was in ICU 11 days before our first confirmed case. It's impossible that there weren't earlier cases that were pneumonia misclassified.

For this one case in France, the stats mean there were anything from 10-20 other infected people at the same time. The long incubation period of this and the variance in symptoms means that this shouldn't be a surprise. Indeed, it could have spread to a few hundred people before it hit someone more vulnerable.

The key though is that if Covid had been more widespread earlier - responsible for the illness that caused some schools to have 50% absences last year - then we would have seen a spike in deaths at the same time. We didn't. Death rates into January this year were about normal across the EU. They only started to spike in March.

Maybe there's a link; maybe that previous illness left people's immune/respiratory systems exceptionally vulnerable to covid. Or maybe there's not.

But it's important not to make any declarations or assumptions. We need to keep stepping back as far as we can to find the earliest cases.

The worst-case scenario is that this virus is the same one that was widespread at the end of last year. Because that means it has mutated now and become considerably more dangerous.

otnomart

otnomart wrote: »

Yes, my typo, I should have written: tested (on 27 Dec) instead of: contracted.
This means contracted anytime in the incubation period before that (2 weeks incubation period ?)

Up to two weeks but most often in the 2-7 day range, which means in all likelihood it was caught from someone travelling from China immediately before Christmas.

The fact that this is the only one that has shown up in this time period also strengthens not weakens the case that it was not widely circulating in Europe prior to February. If it had been widely circulating, there would be lots of these reports.

Boggles

seamus wrote: »

That'll be allowed, and its why the vinters had an urgent meeting with the Taoiseach yesterday. They're terrified that pubs that only serve beer and stack people wall-to-wall will become deeply unpopular, and people will shun them in favour of bar/restaurant premises.

Drunk people and social distancing, that won't lead to punch ups at all.

Gynoid

[Deleted User] wrote: »

1992 wants its map of Europe back

Haha

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Up to two weeks but most often in the 2-7 day range, which means in all likelihood it was caught from someone travelling from China immediately before Christmas.

The fact that this is the only one that has shown up in this time period also strengthens not weakens the case that it was not widely circulating in Europe prior to February. If it had been widely circulating, there would be lots of these reports.

Reports have to be verified, in this case they had a blood sample as far as I know.

He may not be French "patient zero".

Just Saying

eagle eye wrote: »

I wish we had a leader like her. We'd be out of this mess already if we had.

I'd have to disagree.I am not doubting she has done well but their geographical position was a huge help especially when you consider that their nearest neighbour Australia did not have a big outbreak.Interestingly their death rate per head is much the same as NZ yet you rarely hear their PM get any fawning in the press for it it.

I would be fairly sure that the virus was embedded in the population in most western European countries before most scientists/medics/politicians realised it.It became damage limitation then.There is no way she would have got us out of the mess..at best would have limited the damage.

I think Portugal of the Western European countries has done really well but I will wait unless we see excess mortality figures analyzed before grading our response.

FishOnABike

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Yes the lockdown is working and good job done by all to reduce the numbers.

But even if we stay locked down for another few weeks/months there is going to be a spike when things open up again.

It all about how brave or cautious Dr Tony and NPHET are going to be when this happens.

Going on their current handling of things and the long drawn out opening up plan things don’t look good. We’re in danger of a yo yo open close situation.

This will be when these advisers need to be questioned and not just blindly follow their advice.

As mentioned on the radio earlier you’d swear we had one of the biggest outbreaks in the world with the cautious nature of things.

But isn't a more cautious approach going to reduce the risk of a yo yo open close situation?

Relax restrictions slightly, measure result, ensure disease is still under control before taking any further steps. At each stage, measure and ensure it is still under control and is likely to remain so before moving to the next stage.

I'd prefer to do it right and to it once than do a rush job and end up in and out of restrictions like Lannigan's Ball.

We don't want to follow Hokkaido and end back at square one, or worse, a month or two after lifting restrictions.
https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

wakka12

Further nursing home deaths added in the UK. Deaths have now passed 30,000, higher than Italy

wakka12

https://www.wlrn.org/post/ecuador-health-minister-horrifying-coronavirus-plague-better-contained-now#stream/0
Ecuador's health minister believes the recent excess of 7000 deaths in Ecuador is attributable to COVID

hmmm

FishOnABike wrote: »

We don't want to follow Hokkaido and end back at square one, or worse, a month or two after lifting restrictions.
https://time.com/5826918/hokkaido-coronavirus-lockdown/?utm_source=pocket-newtab

Dead right. There's a short-sighted nature to many of those pushing for relaxing of restrictions, and a certain amount of self-interest - "we need to open garden centres quickly".

It's all very well businesses being open, but if consumers are scared to go into them it doesn't matter if they are open or not - Germany has found this out as traffic in their retail outlets is less than 40% of normal.
https://www.ft.com/content/10e9b3fd-8e36-4cae-b1c0-b08fcc4a3c11

If we phase this in, if people see that the virus is controlled, there will be more confidence that measures are working.

wakka12

Update on the patient zero in Paris in December...

His wife worked in a fish market with Chinese colleagues. So could easily have been a once off transmission and not caught because of circulation of the virus in Europe

https://readsector.com/frenchman-43-reveals-he-is-the-patient-zero-who-had-coronavirus-last-december/

Plumbthedepths

I was in a garden centre with my wife yesterday plenty of customers but SD being well observed. Good to see some businesses remaining open.

Stheno

wakka12 wrote: »

Update on the patient zero in Paris in December...

His wife worked in a fish market with Chinese colleagues. So could easily have been a once off transmission and not caught because of circulation of the virus in Europe

https://readsector.com/frenchman-43-reveals-he-is-the-patient-zero-who-had-coronavirus-last-december/

He's not patient zero though

Patient zero to my understanding is the person he caught it from or the person who brought it into the country

It's like the first patient in Italy still called patient one they never found how he caught it

mandrake04

ek motor wrote: »

No open borders for a long time

I think that will be the same for most 1st world countries, every country will be responsible for cleaning up its own mess and if they manage to achieve some sort return to near normality then you would want to keep it like that.

Opening the border to people with no vested interest in the country would be madness.

eagle eye

Just Saying wrote:

I'd have to disagree.I am not doubting she has done well but their geographical position was a huge help especially when you consider that their nearest neighbour Australia did not have a big outbreak.Interestingly their death rate per head is much the same as NZ yet you rarely hear their PM get any fawning in the press for it it.

It was easier for them to keep numbers down but their response was quicker and tougher than ours.

Just Saying wrote:

I would be fairly sure that the virus was embedded in the population in most western European countries before most scientists/medics/politicians realised it.It became damage limitation then.There is no way she would have got us out of the mess..at best would have limited the damage.

Yes limited the damage a lot more than the buffoons we have in charge of this country. Exactly that.

Just Saying wrote:

I think Portugal of the Western European countries has done really well but I will wait unless we see excess mortality figures analyzed before grading our response.

I think the Czech Republic is a clear example of a country that looked and learned from other countries and then acted upon that information.
You are required to wear a facemask in public, their borders are shut, like New Zealand, and they are in great shape now. Austria too.
We never shut our borders, no law about facemasks. Anybody with a bit of cop on following what has been going on was aware five weeks ago that the keys to lowering infections and deaths was lockdown, closed borders, facemasks and social distancing.
Our government haven't improved things, just stuck with a poorly managed semi-lockdown.

branie2

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

I was in a garden centre with my wife yesterday plenty of customers but SD being well observed. Good to see some businesses remaining open.

Good to know

stephenjmcd

The examiner and the times covering this

The Department of Social Protection will continue to support workers until they go back to work, a government Minister has said.

However, Minister for Employment Affairs and Social Protection, Regina Doherty also warned that the current payments would not sustainable in the long term.

Plumbthedepths

eagle eye wrote: »

It was easier for them to keep numbers down but their response was quicker and tougher than ours.


Yes limited the damage a lot more than the buffoons we have in charge of this country. Exactly that.


I think the Czech Republic is a clear example of a country that looked and learned from other countries and then acted upon that information.
You are required to wear a facemask in public, their borders are shut, like New Zealand, and they are in great shape now. Austria too.
We never shut our borders, no law about facemasks. Anybody with a bit of cop on following what has been going on was aware five weeks ago that the keys to lowering infections and deaths was lockdown, closed borders, facemasks and social distancing.
Our government haven't improved things, just stuck with a poorly managed semi-lockdown.

The primetime programme that had the two Irish experts deride the wearing of facemasks versus the experience of the Czech reaction and fall in the spread was something to raise an eyebrow.
The Czech Republic is opening up alot sooner than us. Interestingly Czech citizens whilst they can't travel abroad neither can anyone travel into the country, were never restricted from travelling within the country.

Wombatman

No need to use gloves when shopping or outdoors – HSE

There is no need to use gloves when shopping or outdoors to protect against Covid-19, the Health Service Executive has advised.

Although the use of disposable and other types of gloves has become a common sight during the pandemic, the HSE is recommending against their use.

“We do not recommend using gloves while doing your shopping or when you are out and about,” says Prof Martin Cormican, HSE national lead for infection control.

“If there are bugs on your gloves those bugs often end up on your hands when you take the gloves off and from there they can very easily end up in your mouth, nose and eyes.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/no-need-to-use-gloves-when-shopping-or-outdoors-hse-1.4244689

yourdeadwright

Is the distances of 5k as the crow flys or by road maps ?

Random sample

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Is the distances of 5k as the crow flys or by road maps ?

I’m going with the crow, as I did with the 2km https://2kmfromhome.com/za/

seamus

yourdeadwright wrote: »

Is the distances of 5k as the crow flys or by road maps ?

Crow flies.

https://2kmfromhome.com/5km/

Wombatman

Non solum non ambulabit wrote: »

Exactly. Well into 2021/22 players will still be testing positive. Football will have to continue, just like many other businesses.

In most peoples minds, football is a sport, not a business.

The dynamics of the game don't lend themselves to social distancing, unlike say golf or cycling.

You can't bring back on league without bringing back the game for others (recreational players and kids). This shouldn't be done for football until social distancing recommendations no longer apply.

If people spent as much time playing football, as they did watching it, the world would be a much better place.

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

It was easier for them to keep numbers down but their response was quicker and tougher than ours.


Yes limited the damage a lot more than the buffoons we have in charge of this country. Exactly that.


I think the Czech Republic is a clear example of a country that looked and learned from other countries and then acted upon that information.
You are required to wear a facemask in public, their borders are shut, like New Zealand, and they are in great shape now. Austria too.
We never shut our borders, no law about facemasks. Anybody with a bit of cop on following what has been going on was aware five weeks ago that the keys to lowering infections and deaths was lockdown, closed borders, facemasks and social distancing.
Our government haven't improved things, just stuck with a poorly managed semi-lockdown.

Austria never closed their border - they significantly reduced the number of Border crossings so they could put in border controls, and did seal of Italian crossings for a time, however anyone entitled to enter Austria were not stopped from doing so if they presented at an open crossing or airport, and Passenger flights into and out of Austria never stopped. Much like here

https://www.flightradar24.com/data/airports/vie/arrivals

hmmm

Wombatman wrote: »

In most peoples minds, football is a sport, not a business.

The dynamics of the game don't lend themselves to social distancing, unlike say golf or cycling.

The big leagues will have the money to test players, isolate them before a game, and play a game in an empty stadium. Whether the players will be happy to do this or not I don't know, but it's doable.

Wombatman

hmmm wrote: »

The big leagues will have the money to test players, isolate them before a game, and play a game in an empty stadium. Whether the players will be happy to do this or not I don't know, but it's doable.

Isolate them for two weeks before each game?

If the big leagues come back, the lower leagues will have to come back to work out regulation\promotion.

Shouldn't happen. It's just a sport. Non-essential, particularly in that what you are talking about is mainly for spectating rather than participation.

Non solum non ambulabit

Wombatman wrote: »

In most peoples minds, football is a sport, not a business.

The dynamics of the game don't lend themselves to social distancing, unlike say golf or cycling.

You can't bring back on league without bringing back the game for others (recreational players and kids). This shouldn't be done for football until social distancing recommendations no longer apply.

If people spent as much time playing football, as they did watching it, the world would be a much better place.

Football is a sport. Premier League is a business.

eagle eye

Deleted User wrote:

Austria never closed their border - they significantly reduced the number of Border crossings so they could put in border controls, and did seal of Italian crossings for a time, however anyone entitled to enter Austria were not stopped from doing so if they presented at an open crossing or airport, and Passenger flights into and out of Austria never stopped. Much like here

They made it law to wear facemasks.

wakka12

Doctors in New York noticing trend of toxic shock syndrome among children with COVID. Just last week it was said that this trend which was first spotted in European cities had not been observed in any American hospitals so far.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/more-local-hospitals-report-children-with-possible-covid-19-health-consequences/2399514/

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

The big leagues will have the money to test players, isolate them before a game, and play a game in an empty stadium. Whether the players will be happy to do this or not I don't know, but it's doable.

There is no chance of footballers getting tested, in order to get playing, when not all healthcare workers can. Many players have already expressed those views. It will be completely socially unacceptable.

Personally, despite the attempts by the PL to come up with plan (for which no one can blame them, given the financial implications), I see no way that football can resume. And next season will be behind closed doors I would have thought

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

They made it law to wear facemasks.

Interesting that Austria now have laws both requiring you to cover your face
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52143873
and banning you from covering your face
https://www.bmeia.gv.at/en/travel-stay/entry-and-residence-in-austria/anti-face-covering-act/

eagle eye

Deleted User wrote:

Interesting that Austria now have laws both requiring you to cover your face

Do you really need that explained to you?

niallo27

wakka12 wrote: »

Doctors in New York noticing trend of toxic shock syndrome among children with COVID. Just last week it was said that this trend which was first spotted in European cities had not been observed in any American hospitals so far.

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/more-local-hospitals-report-children-with-possible-covid-19-health-consequences/2399514/

We haven't a clue whats causing it but lets panic everyone by saying its the corona virus causing it, it will get us a few clicks.

Plumbthedepths

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Interesting that Austria now have laws both requiring you to cover your face
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52143873
and banning you from covering your face
https://www.bmeia.gv.at/en/travel-stay/entry-and-residence-in-austria/anti-face-covering-act/

Of course a burka and nijab are no different than a medical mask. Jesus.

niallo27

Deleted User wrote: »

There is no chance of footballers getting tested, in order to get playing, when not all healthcare workers can. Many players have already expressed those views. It will be completely socially unacceptable.

Personally, despite the attempts by the PL to come up with plan (for which no one can blame them, given the financial implications), I see no way that football can resume. And next season will be behind closed doors I would have thought

Its not a straight swap, a footballer getting tested wont stop a healthcare worker getting tested. I have seen this thrown around a bit, it makes no sense.

gabeeg

niallo27 wrote: »

We haven't a clue whats causing it but lets panic everyone by saying its the corona virus causing it, it will get us a few clicks.

Would you rather they kept the information to themselves?

wakka12

niallo27 wrote: »

We haven't a clue whats causing it but lets panic everyone by saying its the corona virus causing it, it will get us a few clicks.

The article nor the doctors said it was definitely linked to COVID. There has simply been a trend observed of higher levels of this very rare disease occurring in children with COVID. They just told parents to look out for it. Hardly scare mongering, its just something they have noticed

niallo27

gabeeg wrote: »

Would you rather they kept the information to themselves?

Yes, i would. Just like WHO last week saying there is no evidence of immunity and then backtracking the following week, articles like this cause panic or else they are completely ignored. Something factual appears then and people just associate it with all the other crap they heard.

New Home

Maybe people should improve their reading comprehension skills.

No evidence of immunity is NOT the same as no immunity.

Personally, I'd rather know.

wakka12

niallo27 wrote: »

Yes, i would. Just like WHO last week saying there is no evidence of immunity and then backtracking the following week, articles like this cause panic or else they are completely ignored. Something factual appears then and people just associate it with all the other crap they heard.

Is that not the problem of those panicky people then? Like if they cant deal with reality and actually assess the situation rationally? There was no evidence of immunity at the time, that was a fact,WHO simply pointed out as a precaution, there is evidence of a link between covid and toxic shock syndrome, thats a fact, theyre pointing it out so that parents of children would be aware what symptoms to look out for, as a precation. I dont see what these doctors/WHO are doing wrong by simply reporting these things, there was absolutely no subjective take on these issues by the reporting bodies in either example, simply stating a fact

splashuum

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/majority-of-us-spy-agencies-believe-coronavirus-escaped-from-wuhan-lab

US intelligence now unanimously agreeing the virus escaped from a Wuhan lab.

Eod100

splashuum wrote: »

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/majority-of-us-spy-agencies-believe-coronavirus-escaped-from-wuhan-lab

US intelligence now unanimously agreeing the virus escaped from a Wuhan lab.

They'd be a fairly conservative news source in US. And it's one official stating it. Trump is applying a lot of political pressure on intelligence community for his narrative. I'd nearly be as skeptical of US as I am of China.

No doubt China does have questions to answer but this all seems like a play from Trump admin to distract from his woeful handling of crises, cutting CDC funding before now etc.

An Ciarraioch

splashuum wrote: »

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/majority-of-us-spy-agencies-believe-coronavirus-escaped-from-wuhan-lab

US intelligence now unanimously agreeing the virus escaped from a Wuhan lab.

And WHO saying the US has provided zero proof for the claim:

https://www.rte.ie/news/world/2020/0505/1136469-who-wuhan-lab/

eagle eye

eagle eye wrote: »

Do you really need that explained to you?

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Of course a burka and nijab are no different than a medical mask. Jesus.

What is actually wrong with you people. I was pointing out Austria has laws both requiring and banning face covering in a general commentary the contradictions that are an unintended consequence of all the changes that are a result of the current situation, and not making any commentary whatsoever on the usefulness or necessity or otherwise of facemasks.

But if you want to go down that route - requirement to wear facemasks in Austria came in on the 30th March - after new cases had already peaked there

Kermit.de.frog

A shocking and disturbing story on figures emerging from the UK as new deaths added to total (relating to people dieing at home or in care homes)

There were 32,375 deaths involving coronavirus by 24 April in the UK, lifting the country's death toll to the be one of the worst in Europe, according to new data from the Office for National Statistics.

Previously, the UK had reported 22,524 deaths as of 24 April, according to the University of Johns Hopkins. Crucially however, this figure only included hospital deaths and didn't count those in care homes or the community.

But the latest ONS figures released today count all registered deaths with coronavirus listed on the death certificate, and therefore mark the most reliable figure we have for the 17th week of 2020.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/05/ons-data-indicates-uk-past-peak-deaths-care-home-deaths-still/

Not "one of the worst" as the Torygraph puts it but the worst and that's only to the 24th of April.

They now have the worst outbreak in Europe.

timsey tiger

splashuum wrote: »

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/majority-of-us-spy-agencies-believe-coronavirus-escaped-from-wuhan-lab

US intelligence now unanimously agreeing the virus escaped from a Wuhan lab.

Spy agencies think what their masters tell them to think.

I have a few questions for you splashuum.

How did you go from the "majority" in the article, to "unanimously"?

Do you know what the word "dissenting" means?

"The official also noted dissenting agencies remain open to the theory."