Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

Polar101

Apologies if this was already posted (boards running so slow I'm not reading everything), but there was an interesting story about the outgoing flu season.

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0505/1136467-flu-vaccination-extension/

"Almost 11,000 cases of influenza were notified to the Health Protection Surveillance Centre during the flu season just ending, with 4,323 people needing hospitalisation, while 152 of them were admitted to intensive care. Overall 103 people died of influenza, bringing the total number of flu-associated deaths since the winter of 2017 to 461 people."

Those numbers sound very high to me, wouldn't want to see the healthcare system trying to handle both influenza and covid-19 at the same time. Obviously most influenza cases wouldn't be registered, but over 4000 people admitted to hospital makes you think.

Pitch n Putt

Arghus wrote: »

Of course, the numbers are going the right way, that's undeniable.

But when you say you look at the data, well certain other facts are undeniable too - the data clearly shows that we have higher numbers in ICU right now, today, than what we had when the lockdown began and the same goes for the number of active cases.

All those facts, taken as a whole, show two things quite clearly.

One: we've done well to stop the exponential spread of the virus. And that is absolutely brilliant.

Two: the job is not finished and the potential for a second spike in numbers is very real.

Yes the lockdown is working and good job done by all to reduce the numbers.

But even if we stay locked down for another few weeks/months there is going to be a spike when things open up again.

It all about how brave or cautious Dr Tony and NPHET are going to be when this happens.

Going on their current handling of things and the long drawn out opening up plan things don’t look good. We’re in danger of a yo yo open close situation.

This will be when these advisers need to be questioned and not just blindly follow their advice.

As mentioned on the radio earlier you’d swear we had one of the biggest outbreaks in the world with the cautious nature of things.

Gynoid

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

As mentioned on the radio earlier you’d swear we had one of the biggest outbreaks in the world with the cautious nature of things.

We have had a reasonably large outbreak given that we are a low population, low population density island. I know, I know about all the sighing arguments again and again how every single other place in the world is not counting deaths properly except for us who are apparently meticulous when it comes to that, but nonetheless despite having 0.06 % of the worlds population we have 0.6% of the worlds reported covid deaths. Oh I know, I know there will be recalculations but there is a 10 fold discrepancy there as we stand. Compared to many other countrues that one could trust to be fairly numerate and reasonably honest we did not do the greatest. Norway. Czechoslovakia. Croatia. New Zealand. Austria.

Policy makers also have to look to their historical legacies. They will be the ones whose names will be mentioned in 50 and 100 years not the anonymous people expunging their animus about "lockdowns" by grizzling on boards.

US2

Will I be able to have 7 or 8 pints of Guinness with my toasted sandwich in a restaurant when they open?

Seems unfair on publicans. I think restaurants and pubs should open on the same date, be that July or September.

Pitch n Putt

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Yes the lockdown is working and good job done by all to reduce the numbers.

But even if we stay locked down for another few weeks/months there is going to be a spike when things open up again.

It all about how brave or cautious Dr Tony and NPHET are going to be when this happens.

Going on their current handling of things and the long drawn out opening up plan things don’t look good. We’re in danger of a yo yo open close situation.

This will be when these advisers need to be questioned and not just blindly follow their advice.

As mentioned on the radio earlier you’d swear we had one of the biggest outbreaks in the world with the cautious nature of things.

This is true, and the reason why the way forward is not about lockdowns. Its about managing the new way we live - its about hygiene, social distancing, testing (with quick results) and tracing. We need to get those things right (especially testing and tracing) and not look to go into this cycle of lockdown and release and lockdown again

ChelseaRentBoy

Micky 32 wrote: »

I’m not a doom and gloom merchant, i go by data. 160 down to 93 is a huge drop in the grand scheme of things. You can bet there will be a substantial drop from 93 in the next week or so without doubt.

Eh not if some of these transfer to ICU

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0505/1136472-coronavirus-covid19-ireland/

stephenjmcd

Germany's R number holding very steady still. Current modeling gives R still at 0.71.

Graph attached shows pre and post lockdown so far.

paw patrol

Arghus wrote: »

Of course, the numbers are going the right way, that's undeniable.

But when you say you look at the data, well certain other facts are undeniable too - the data clearly shows that we have higher numbers in ICU right now, today, than what we had when the lockdown began and the same goes for the number of active cases.

All those facts, taken as a whole, show two things quite clearly.

One: we've done well to stop the exponential spread of the virus. And that is absolutely brilliant.

Two: the job is not finished and the potential for a second spike in numbers is very real.

at some stage people will mix together - the 2nd spike will happen no matter what we do

hopefully sooner rather than later says me

paw patrol

Leo & Harris and the HSE are bluffers

easy known Leo will be off on a EU or UN role while the rest of us are picking up the tab for this mis-adventure.

Plumbthedepths

paw patrol wrote: »

Leo & Harris and the HSE are bluffers

easy known Leo will be off on a EU or UN role while the rest of us are picking up the tab for this mis-adventure.

Leo and Co are hiding behind Holohan.

kilkenny31

paw patrol wrote: »

at some stage people will mix together - the 2nd spike will happen no matter what we do

hopefully sooner rather than later says me

Cant say that for sure. There are a lot of theories about what will happen this virus. Some predict what you suggest with a number of waves. Others suggest that far more people may have been infected than we know about thus some for of immunity may be present. Others suggest that it is natural for a virus mutate and to weaken over time, it has been suggested that this has already happened with weaker strains going around so it is possible thay future waves may not cause many hospitalisations or deaths.

podgeandrodge

boards seems back to normal for me. Even if life isn't

kilkenny31

podgeandrodge wrote: »

boards seems back to normal for me. Even if life isn't

Be careful. We may have a second wave.

paw patrol

kilkenny31 wrote: »

Cant say that for sure. There are a lot of theories about what will happen this virus. Some predict what you suggest with a number of waves. Others suggest that far more people may have been infected than we know about thus some for of immunity may be present. Others suggest that it is natural for a virus mutate and to weaken over time, it has been suggested that this has already happened with weaker strains going around so it is possible thay future waves may not cause many hospitalisations or deaths.

you're correct.
I don't think it'll be a huge significant spike but I'd say there will be an increase initially

and yes , i think many more exposed to it that official figures say.

Also I think that the virus was here a lot earlier than we think , with international travel and the large Chinese communities here etc.. I don't see why it would take so long to reach europe.

otnomart

Xertz wrote: »

Except for the French retrospective analysis published this weekend that’s discovered in Paris in patients swabbed on 27 December. That’s been cited on major French news channels, not internet conspiracy sites.

https://www.francetvinfo.fr/sante/maladie/coronavirus/coronavirus-un-cas-de-covid-19-repertorie-en-france-des-le-27-decembre-affirme-le-chef-d-un-service-de-reanimation-de-seine-saint-denis_3946867.html

France Info TV is a public service tv station owned by Radio France, France Televisions / France Media Monde and l'institue national de l’audiovisuel. Basically French equivalent of BBC News 24 or RTE News.

Yes:
the French case - who contracted the virus on 27 December - therefore pre-dating all: Germany (Bavaria case end of January) and Spain (Valencia case, 13 February) and Italy (Codogno case, 21 February) is real.


Here is the interview in French:
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/j-avais-des-douleurs-au-thorax-le-patient-infecte-par-le-coronavirus-en-decembre-temoigne-1907944.html

Stheno

otnomart wrote: »

Yes:
the French case - who contracted the virus on 27 December - therefore pre-dating all: Germany (Bavaria case end of January) and Spain (Valencia case, 13 February) and Italy (Codogno case, 21 February) is real.


Here is the interview in French:
https://www.bfmtv.com/sante/j-avais-des-douleurs-au-thorax-le-patient-infecte-par-le-coronavirus-en-decembre-temoigne-1907944.html

Was the French case not admitted to hospital and tested Dec 27?

So counting incubation infected at least a week before and hadn't travelled anywhere so caught it in France

So in Paris mid December?

stephenjmcd

Stheno wrote: »

Was the French case not admitted to hospital and tested Dec 27?

So counting incubation infected at least a week before and hadn't travelled anywhere so caught it in France

So in Paris mid December?

Correct, tested 27th December and with incubation period as you say, the person contracted it a good bit before the 27th

Stheno

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Correct, tested 27th December and with incubation period as you say, the person contracted it a good bit before the 27th

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/04/french-hospital-discovers-covid-19-case-december-retested

Link to info on it from the guardian

Boggles

Stheno wrote: »

Was the French case not admitted to hospital and tested Dec 27?

So counting incubation infected at least a week before and hadn't travelled anywhere so caught it in France

So in Paris mid December?

But Dr Cohen pointed out that the patient's wife worked at a supermarket near Charles de Gaulle airport and could have come into contact with people who had recently arrived from China.

The patient's wife said that "often customers would come directly from the airport, still carrying their suitcases".

The wife didn't get sick. But her 43 year old husband and kids did.

otnomart

Stheno wrote: »

Was the French case not admitted to hospital and tested Dec 27?

So counting incubation infected at least a week before and hadn't travelled anywhere so caught it in France

So in Paris mid December?

Yes, my typo, I should have written: tested (on 27 Dec) instead of: contracted.
This means contracted anytime in the incubation period before that (2 weeks incubation period ?)

ek motor

New Zealand PM: No open borders for a long time

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-52540733

DevilsHaircut

Full French report.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0924857920301643?via%3Dihub

eagle eye

ek motor wrote:

New Zealand PM: No open borders for a long time

I wish we had a leader like her. We'd be out of this mess already if we had.

Gynoid

Gynoid wrote: »

We have had a reasonably large outbreak given that we are a low population, low population density island. I know, I know about all the sighing arguments again and again how every single other place in the world is not counting deaths properly except for us who are apparently meticulous when it comes to that, but nonetheless despite having 0.06 % of the worlds population we have 0.6% of the worlds reported covid deaths. Oh I know, I know there will be recalculations but there is a 10 fold discrepancy there as we stand. Compared to many other countrues that one could trust to be fairly numerate and reasonably honest we did not do the greatest. Norway. Czechoslovakia. Croatia. New Zealand. Austria.

Policy makers also have to look to their historical legacies. They will be the ones whose names will be mentioned in 50 and 100 years not the anonymous people expunging their animus about "lockdowns" by grizzling on boards.

1992 wants its map of Europe back

seamus

MattS1 wrote: »

I'm interested to see how the restaurants will work. What's to stop a group of six coming in for dinner and load of pints for 3/4 hours? Or will that be allowed.

That'll be allowed, and its why the vinters had an urgent meeting with the Taoiseach yesterday. They're terrified that pubs that only serve beer and stack people wall-to-wall will become deeply unpopular, and people will shun them in favour of bar/restaurant premises.

Xertz wrote: »

Except for the French retrospective analysis published this weekend that’s discovered in Paris in patients swabbed on 27 December. That’s been cited on major French news channels, not internet conspiracy sites.

What is key to remember though, is that this still doesn't support the popular assertion that, "I think lots of people had Covid already last year".

Given that only a fraction of Covid infections end up in ICU, it is certain that in every country there were infections earlier than the first recorded one. France's first confirmed case was 24th January. So a case existing 4 weeks earlier than that shouldn't be a surprise. We know that one person was in ICU 11 days before our first confirmed case. It's impossible that there weren't earlier cases that were pneumonia misclassified.

For this one case in France, the stats mean there were anything from 10-20 other infected people at the same time. The long incubation period of this and the variance in symptoms means that this shouldn't be a surprise. Indeed, it could have spread to a few hundred people before it hit someone more vulnerable.

The key though is that if Covid had been more widespread earlier - responsible for the illness that caused some schools to have 50% absences last year - then we would have seen a spike in deaths at the same time. We didn't. Death rates into January this year were about normal across the EU. They only started to spike in March.

Maybe there's a link; maybe that previous illness left people's immune/respiratory systems exceptionally vulnerable to covid. Or maybe there's not.

But it's important not to make any declarations or assumptions. We need to keep stepping back as far as we can to find the earliest cases.

The worst-case scenario is that this virus is the same one that was widespread at the end of last year. Because that means it has mutated now and become considerably more dangerous.

otnomart

otnomart wrote: »

Yes, my typo, I should have written: tested (on 27 Dec) instead of: contracted.
This means contracted anytime in the incubation period before that (2 weeks incubation period ?)

Up to two weeks but most often in the 2-7 day range, which means in all likelihood it was caught from someone travelling from China immediately before Christmas.

The fact that this is the only one that has shown up in this time period also strengthens not weakens the case that it was not widely circulating in Europe prior to February. If it had been widely circulating, there would be lots of these reports.

Boggles

seamus wrote: »

That'll be allowed, and its why the vinters had an urgent meeting with the Taoiseach yesterday. They're terrified that pubs that only serve beer and stack people wall-to-wall will become deeply unpopular, and people will shun them in favour of bar/restaurant premises.

Drunk people and social distancing, that won't lead to punch ups at all.

Gynoid

[Deleted User] wrote: »

1992 wants its map of Europe back

Haha

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

Up to two weeks but most often in the 2-7 day range, which means in all likelihood it was caught from someone travelling from China immediately before Christmas.

The fact that this is the only one that has shown up in this time period also strengthens not weakens the case that it was not widely circulating in Europe prior to February. If it had been widely circulating, there would be lots of these reports.

Reports have to be verified, in this case they had a blood sample as far as I know.

He may not be French "patient zero".

Just Saying

eagle eye wrote: »

I wish we had a leader like her. We'd be out of this mess already if we had.

I'd have to disagree.I am not doubting she has done well but their geographical position was a huge help especially when you consider that their nearest neighbour Australia did not have a big outbreak.Interestingly their death rate per head is much the same as NZ yet you rarely hear their PM get any fawning in the press for it it.

I would be fairly sure that the virus was embedded in the population in most western European countries before most scientists/medics/politicians realised it.It became damage limitation then.There is no way she would have got us out of the mess..at best would have limited the damage.

I think Portugal of the Western European countries has done really well but I will wait unless we see excess mortality figures analyzed before grading our response.