Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

eddie73

There is a furious amount of debate going on about the peak of this virus.

Which peak are you talking about?

As soon as restrictions are lifted, we are looking at another spike. And another lockdown. And another spike when that lockdown finishes. Ad infinitum....

There are countries that have a chance.

Iceland is one. Their rates are well down and they are looking like they could get to a stage of going back to work soon.
But their population is small and also their population is very healthy.

They also have form in recent years of being economically self sufficient, they way they handled their banking crisis in 2008 stands out as being an example of their resourcefulness when their backs are to the wall. So if they closed their borders and worked as a self contained island economy for a year, they are capable of doing this.

Economic damage limitation is the name of the game.

I dont know if we are capable of going the same road as Iceland.
They obviously locked down good and proper, got their curve flattened and are in a much easier situation to contain outbreaks in the future when they go back working.

We are not. Our social distancing policy has not been adhered to. Our cases are in the 10s of thousands and our new cases are in quite large daily numbers.

Our only hope is that we can control the numbers of infection rather than have surges in the figures. This is impossible if we reopen.

Look no further than Singapore.
They had a really severe lockdown and softened the restrictions a couple of weeks ago. Suddenly their cases has gone from hundreds to over 8000. You could multiply that figure by 3 or 4 if you want to see the true numbers. I know they are a densely populated city with a lot of migrant traffic, but it still is a good yardstick to what lies ahead for us post lockdown.

Unless we somehow adhere to social distancing in the workplace.

Mic 1972

Richard Hillman wrote: »

The latest country we have over taken on sheer numbers is Austria

Populations
Austria 8.9m
Ireland 4.9m

Density
Austria 109perKm
Ireland 72perKm

Cases
Austria 14,795
Ireland 15,251

Cases Per Million
Austria 1642
Ireland 3089



Tests Per Million
Austria 20,313
Ireland 18,358

Total Deaths
Austria 470
Ireland 610

Deaths Per Million
Austria 52
Ireland 124

Other factors:
Austria have a border with Italy
Ireland is an island on the edge of Europe
Austria look like they peaked about 2 weeks ago.
Ireland are looking like they have peaked a few days ago.

We also surpassed Italy for cases per million just yesterday

Cases Per Million
Italy 2,960
Ireland 3,089

Tests per million
Italy 22,436
Ireland 18,358

Deaths per million
Italy = 0.000364
Ireland = 0.00012

FluffyTowel

Hi. So, my worst fears have happened and my dad is in hospital with Covid. I live in Germany. He isn’t is great health generally, and I’m so worried that I can’t think. What can I do? Can I go back? Will I have to isolate? He’s in hospital in Ireland. I don’t have so many details as it’s only his wife who I have contact with and she is not responding at the moment.

Mic 1972

eddie73 wrote: »

There is a furious amount of debate going on about the peak of this virus.

Which peak are you talking about?

As soon as restrictions are lifted, we are looking at another spike. And another lockdown. And another spike when that lockdown finishes. Ad infinitum....

There are countries that have a chance.

Iceland is one. Their rates are well down and they are looking like they could get to a stage of going back to work soon.
But their population is small and also their population is very healthy.

They also have form in recent years of being economically self sufficient, they way they handled their banking crisis in 2008 stands out as being an example of their resourcefulness when their backs are to the wall. So if they closed their borders and worked as a self contained island economy for a year, they are capable of doing this.

Economic damage limitation is the name of the game.

I dont know if we are capable of going the same road as Iceland.
They obviously locked down good and proper, got their curve flattened and are in a much easier situation to contain outbreaks in the future when they go back working.

We are not. Our social distancing policy has not been adhered to. Our cases are in the 10s of thousands and our new cases are in quite large daily numbers.

Our only hope is that we can control the numbers of infection rather than have surges in the figures. This is impossible if we reopen.

Look no further than Singapore.
They had a really severe lockdown and softened the restrictions a couple of weeks ago. Suddenly their cases has gone from hundreds to over 8000. You could multiply that figure by 3 or 4 if you want to see the true numbers. I know they are a densely populated city with a lot of migrant traffic, but it still is a good yardstick to what lies ahead for us post lockdown.

Unless we somehow adhere to social distancing in the workplace.

excellent post

nacho libre

Deleted User wrote: »

This makes no sense - if cases if rates of hospitalisation / ICU are not growing, community cases are not growing

If 60 per cent of those infected are asymptomatic, is it possible it's still growing, but not at a huge rate given the ro is down to 0.7, and that we are on lockdown.

if this is so, it just underlines that restictions can't all go at once on May 5th

Snow Garden

eddie73 wrote: »

We are not. Our social distancing policy has not been adhered to. Our cases are in the 10s of thousands and our new cases are in quite large daily numbers.

It might be my own experience/perception but I believe people are starting to flaunt the social distancing rules little by little. And I am not just talking about youths or stupid people - I think many adults are getting impatient and pushing the boundaries.

Mic 1972

Snow Garden wrote: »

It might be my own experience/perception but I believe people are starting to flaunt the social distancing rules little by little. And I am not just talking about youths or stupid people - I think many adults are getting impatient and pushing the boundaries.

Yes that's sadly true

iguana

iguana wrote: »

Because the vast, vast, vast majority of cases are too mild to need hospitalisation and everyone is avoiding the vulnerable as much as possible. I know way too many people who have had a respiratory illness in the last month but weren't tested to take our confirmed figures with anything other than a pinch of salt. I was in hospital last week where I was diagnosed with post-viral pleurisy in my right lung. The doctor treating me was very frustrated that there was no way to test me and said it's been very, very hard for them in A&E because they see a lot of people who should be/should have been tested and they don't qualify. I'm part of a cluster of people who all had fairly close contact before the schools closed and we all started displaying symptoms at the same time. None of us could be tested, meaning that none us became a confirmed case so none of us could be tested. We were almost certainly a cluster of community spread but we don't exist. Thankfully, I'd been avoiding vulnerable family members since February, so never infected anyone who was at high risk of needing hospital admission.

You dont get it do you? If hospitalisation rates are falling, and ICU rates are falling, community cases are also falling. Hospital cases start in the community.

Mic 1972

Deleted User wrote: »

You dont get it do you? If hospitalisation rates are falling, and ICU rates are falling, community cases are also falling. Hospital cases start in the community.

I stopped reading at "you dont get it do you" ...such arrogance

smelly sock

Snow Garden wrote: »

It might be my own experience/perception but I believe people are starting to flaunt the social distancing rules little by little. And I am not just talking about youths or stupid people - I think many adults are getting impatient and pushing the boundaries.

Oh they are. People are getting fed up of them at the moment.

That's a protagonist for lockdown being lifted but the message of social distancing should be hammered home.

IMO we'd have been better of pursuing social distancing and driving home this message than asking people to lockdown.

There are better approaches. Granted they require more work to get right but they would have given people a better quality of life and maintained our low positive test base.

Gynoid

smelly sock wrote: »

Oh they are. People are getting fed up of them at the moment.

That's a protagonist for lockdown being lifted but the message of social distancing should be hammered home.

IMO we'd have been better of pursuing social distancing and driving home this message than asking people to lockdown.

There are better approaches. Granted they require more work to get right but they would have given people a better quality of life and maintained our low positive test base.

This idea that most people are somehow dutiful social distancers outside of restrictions is a bit of a laugh. Pie in the sky stuff.

CruelSummer

I'm beginning to think the death rate from this virus is much lower than originally thought, looking at Countries or areas where mass testing has occurred - the evidence is pointing towards this. I also personally believe our figures and most countries figures are meaningless.
Covid has been doing the rounds in communities, and many people have had mild cases of it without being tested. If this is in fact the case, I really think continuation of the lockdown is a bad idea. We're creating economic catastrophe. If a gradual reopening happens in May and figures remain stable, or just marginal changes in either direction (and by figures I mean hospital figures), we should continue to try and return to some sort of normality over the Summer rather than in Autumn / Winter when other bugs will also be doing the rounds complicating the systems. I don't see the problem with schools re-opening on a limited basis, children are missing weeks / months of education. Some will fall very far behind.

speckle

New Home wrote: »

The only thing I can think of is that the patient may be too ill to be moved.

thanks it was just that I thought the icu in CUH never reached capacity and wondered how they ended up in the private bons in the first place.
Hope they recover and if it is pallative care that they pass peacefully, my thoughts to their family and close friends.

iguana

Deleted User wrote: »

You dont get it do you? If hospitalisation rates are falling, and ICU rates are falling, community cases are also falling. Hospital cases start in the community.

Community cases are falling yes, we are practicing extreme social distancing. At nearly zero? There is fuçk all chance of that. This virus is significantly more prevalent than our confirmed cases suggest. This virus is far more widespread and far less deadly than our figures suggest. The people to whom it is most deadly are largely protected by being the most socially distanced people, at least if they still live in private homes. But don't be in any doubt that there is still enough community spread that once restrictions are relaxed we will see more people to whom it will be a more serious illness get infected. It's already happened pretty much everywhere that restrictions have been relaxed.

speckle

FluffyTowel wrote: »

Hi. So, my worst fears have happened and my dad is in hospital with Covid. I live in Germany. He isn’t is great health generally, and I’m so worried that I can’t think. What can I do? Can I go back? Will I have to isolate? He’s in hospital in Ireland. I don’t have so many details as it’s only his wife who I have contact with and she is not responding at the moment.

maybe try and phone the hospital. see how your dad is doing first.
they might be able to organise a call with him if he is not doing too bad.
contact the dfa.ie re travel restrictions.( dept of foreign affairs.)
ring the HSE phone number for advise.
Hope your dad makes it, older people are surviving.

Gynoid

CruelSummer wrote: »

I'm beginning to think the death rate from this virus is much lower than originally thought, looking at Countries or areas where mass testing has occurred - the evidence is pointing towards this. I also personally believe our figures and most countries figures are meaningless.
Covid has been doing the rounds in communities, and many people have had mild cases of it without being tested. If this is in fact the case, I really think continuation of the lockdown is a bad idea. We're creating economic catastrophe. If a gradual reopening happens in May and figures remain stable, or just marginal changes in either direction (and by figures I mean hospital figures), we should continue to try and return to some sort of normality over the Summer rather than in Autumn / Winter when other bugs will also be doing the rounds complicating the systems. I don't see the problem with schools re-opening on a limited basis, children are missing weeks / months of education. Some will fall very far behind.

The death rate is not the only or maybe even main problem. The contagion or infection rate is a problem. Flu affects about 15% of people. If this affects far more it would gave a higher death rate even if it had the exact same case fatality rate as flu. Which so far it does not look to be that low.
Plus side effects of a bad dose are as yet not researched enough. I hear words like pleurisy, pneumonia, sepsis, clotting, etc and that is among the cohort who do okay out of a bad dose. Then there are effects on organs from inflammation that are only beginning to be understood. Those are all pretty serious things. Plus immunity is so far uncertain. Imagine getting it, being knackered and shook by the so called mild dose, but doing okay, shaking it off and then getting the shagging thing again!
There is just such limited scientific research on this as it is a NOVEL virus. Novel means completely new! It is a pain in the hole that so many people are so blasè about something we know so damn little about yet.

terenc

Simon Coveney has gone very quiet this weekend, probably out-picking fruit for Keelings with his Bulgarian freinds who have the highest testing coronavirus system in Europe (well according to Ryanair) mind your business we can bring in who we want "gospel according to Bord Bia and Ryanair".
Social distancing" whats that" dident we do that at Cheltenham 2020 so lets get our valuable strawberries harvested.

speckle

FluffyTowel wrote: »

Hi. So, my worst fears have happened and my dad is in hospital with Covid. I live in Germany. He isn’t is great health generally, and I’m so worried that I can’t think. What can I do? Can I go back? Will I have to isolate? He’s in hospital in Ireland. I don’t have so many details as it’s only his wife who I have contact with and she is not responding at the moment.

irish embassy details re contact

https://www.dfa.ie/embassies/irish-embassies-abroad/europe/germany/

Martina1991

iguana wrote:

I was in hospital last week where I was diagnosed with post-viral pleurisy in my right lung. The doctor treating me was very frustrated that there was no way to test me and said it's been very, very hard for them in A&E because they see a lot of people who should be/should have been tested and they don't qualify.

I dont understand this bit.

Anyone who feels unwell enough to present to hospital who is suspected as having Covid can be tested.

iguana

Martina1991 wrote: »

I dont understand this bit.

Anyone who feels unwell enough to present to hospital who is suspected as having Covid can be tested.

In Korea. They don't do that here. In fact there are huge signs up all over the hospital saying they don't do that.

ek motor

Snow Garden wrote: »

It might be my own experience/perception but I believe people are starting to flaunt the social distancing rules little by little. And I am not just talking about youths or stupid people - I think many adults are getting impatient and pushing the boundaries.

Yes, have definetly noticed this too. In particular a significant number making little or no effort to keep 2 meters while out walking.

bekker

Good quick overview in The Telegraph of where research is going on finding a way out of COVID-19 dilemma.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/latest-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19/

iguana

iguana wrote: »

Community cases are falling yes, we are practising extreme social distancing. At nearly zero? There is fuçk all chance of that. This virus is significantly more prevalent than our confirmed cases suggest. This virus is far more widespread and far less deadly than our figures suggest. The people to whom it is most deadly are largely protected by being the most socially distanced people, at least if they still live in private homes. But don't be in any doubt that there is still enough community spread that once restrictions are relaxed we will see more people to whom it will be a more serious illness get infected. It's already happened pretty much everywhere that restrictions have been relaxed.

No one claims community cases are zero. Zero growth in community cases as evidenced by the hospital and ICU numbers.

Funsterdelux

terenc wrote: »

Simon Coveney has gone very quiet this weekend, probably out-picking fruit for Keelings with his Bulgarian freinds who have the highest testing coronavirus system in Europe (well according to Ryanair) mind your business we can bring in who we want "gospel according to Bord Bia and Ryanair".
Social distancing" whats that" dident we do that at Cheltenham 2020 so lets get our valuable strawberries harvested.

If enough Irish/people resident in Ireland applied for the jobs initially, they might not needed the Bulgarians.

Id hate to see all those sweet berries go to waste.

Tony EH

FVP3 wrote: »

?

When I say thats the end of most phones including iPhones I was fully aware you said "from now on". If there is an immediate tariff on all Chinese manufactured products, iPhones are toast. If there is a concerted campaign to do this over a decade, the Chinese won't wait around and will boot iphone manufacturing and sales out of China. The former will kill iPhone production until it moves its factories elsewhere which could take years but definitely kill a year or sos production, and the latter on its own will reduce iphone sales significantly even if the first didn't happen.

China is also a major consumer country.

Whats missing here with most of the anti-Chinese rhetoric is anything that even resembles an understanding of the world economy and who produces what and where. I once created a post with some information on where components are created for the iPhone ( plurality in China, majority in Asia, one or two components in Europe, none in the US although some of the IP of the manufactured parts was in the US), but this thread doesnt engage in empiricism.

There's also an assumption that the west will be as one on this. it wont. Germany is ever more highly dependent on the Chinese consumer.

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2018/aug/01/germanys-china-city-duisburg-became-xi-jinping-gateway-europe

It would be brave of the UK to start a trade war with China, and the EU. That said they seem to be heading that way.

The people on here spouting this garbage have no idea how their world works.

The fact of the matter is that western companies have been outsourcing to the likes of China for over two decades. Greed is what sparked off outsourcing and greed will see it's continuance.

It's gas, the boyos banging on about "making China pay" are typing that crap on electronics that part manufactured in China...

...and will continue to be when all this blows over. :pac:

iguana

iguana wrote: »

In Korea. They don't do that here. In fact there are huge signs up all over the hospital saying they don't do that.

Anyone presenting to hospital with suspected Covid 19 or severe respiratory symptoms will be tested. Anyone calling their GP with Temp and respiratory symptoms will be tested. Anyone contract traced to a confirmed case will be tested.

bekker

Martina1991 wrote: »

I dont understand this bit.

Anyone who feels unwell enough to present to hospital who is suspected as having Covid can be tested.

Post-viral pleurisy.

OP had COVID-19 but didn't meet criteria for test, had OP been tested might have avoided developing post-viral pleurisy.

Treating doctor indicated OP presentation circumstances not uncommon.

What's not to understand?

caveat emptor

Ted Cruz thinks China needs to answer a question or two.

https://twitter.com/Kenpo_David/status/1252200182130892800?s=20

FVP3

iguana wrote: »

In Korea. They don't do that here. In fact there are huge signs up all over the hospital saying they don't do that.

Indeed, instead ask your gp and get an appointment at croke park.

ek motor

bekker wrote: »

Good quick overview in The Telegraph of where research is going on finding a way out of COVID-19 dilemma.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/latest-coronavirus-vaccine-covid-19/

Good article. Ive read that one of the difficulties in creating a vaccine for the original SARS virus was that the vaccine caused ADE in test animals, and because SARS-CoV2 is closely related it could cause similar challenges in creating a safe vaccine.