Covid19 Part XVI- 21,983 in ROI (1,339 deaths) 3,881 in NI (404 deaths)(05/05)Read OP

joe40

Wombatman wrote: »

We will probably be looking at something like the Uk plan......

Where did this plan come from. It seems overly optimistic to me.

timsey tiger

growleaves wrote: »

I am not.

Mainstream modellers.

What are these now, how do they differ from the "up s**t creek modellers the US and UK heads of state seemed to have listened to?

Drumpot

ek motor wrote: »

Sorry to hear that person had to go back to hospital, do you know why he/she had to go back ?

Thanks, we thought they were out of the woods!

Got a bad cough , felt unwell, went back to hospital and it was blood clots on lungs.

bekker

joe40 wrote: »

Where did this plan come from. It seems overly optimistic to me.

The Sun

is_that_so

iguana wrote: »

We aren't doing community testing, so of course it is.

If the transmission rate is 0.7 then it is. Since 3rd of April, according to Nolan, it has been virtually zero. Community testing is for a public health profile.

is_that_so

joe40 wrote: »

Where did this plan come from. It seems overly optimistic to me.

We'll be watching the Europeans as they do it. It won't be too dissimilar to that although timing will be very slow.

caveat emptor

joe40 wrote: »

Where did this plan come from. It seems overly optimistic to me.

Germany doesn't have such a nice traffic light poster. They do have a leader who understands it and how we are nowhere near close to this being over. I know which one I'd prefer in this crisis. Discipline.

https://twitter.com/dwnews/status/1252227654377340930?s=20

Gynoid

CruelSummer wrote: »

I agree with your point re flu contagion rates and this being a novel virus. I agree also that we needed to shut down when we did, great move to stem the spread and stop people getting sick all at once. It has saved our hospital systems from becoming overwhelmed.
However I had mild symptoms of Covid 19 but I was tested too late when I'd recovered & tested negative. I am not part of the current numbers, even though I am almost certain I had it. I am otherwise fit and healthy and have made a complete recovery. I would like to get back to work, I haven't travelled anywhere or broken any lockdown restrictions...so if it was that easy for me to pick it up, how many more are out there like me? I think the current infection rates are grossly underestimated.
The only way long term to protect vulnerable members of society is to keep the wheels turning in the economy and provide funding and structures. Not to mention the severe adverse affects these restrictions are having on society as a whole across the board.
I am not comfortable waiting for a rushed vaccine and leaving ourselves at the mercy of whatever company wants to make Billions while we all become poor in the process due to a collapsed economy. The current lockdown is unsustainable and the death rate does not warrant these kind of measures long term.

Thanking your post because although I don't agree with all you say I appreciate your reply. The likelihood of course is that far more have it, on that we agree.

Honestly I do not know what to do. The deaths are horrid but not even the only thing that bothers me. The unknowns bother me. The implications for long term health of the population.
The economy does not bother me. I have an odd take on money that does not really put me in the place where I see societal collapse - it won't happen. Even the last recession in 2008 was feck all compared to the 80s. In my experience.

I will be in the first volley of people "let out" on May 5th. Am not in a position to afford not to go where I am sent. And not to a safe environment. Nor can it be made safer. I really cannot afford it but might decide to stay home. Really don't know.

BonnieSituation

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

Cinemas reopen? Weddings?

Jeez I dont know - Weddings usually have 200 people in a moderate sized function room.

Surely that couldnt happen as soon as June

Have you ever been to an English wedding?

It'll be over by 11 anyway. Less risk overall for guests.

tobefrank321

is_that_so wrote: »

If the transmission rate is 0.7 then it is. Since 3rd of April, according to Nolan, it has been virtually zero. Community testing is for a public health profile.

Very difficult to make a determination about community spread when they are doing next to no testing for community infections. But yes its likely to be very low. Its what happens when restrictions are eased is the problem. Public transport could be one area of concern. They will have to widen the test eligibility otherwise they will miss a large number of community infections.

Poor_old_gill

BonnieSituation wrote: »

Have you ever been to an English wedding?

It'll be over by 11 anyway. Less risk overall for guests.

I dont know about their weddings to be honest but the person posting that had said that we'd follow a similar path.

I'd be very surprised if we had weddings going here by June

is_that_so

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Very difficult to make a determination about community spread when they are doing next to no testing for community infections. But yes its likely to be very low. Its what happens when restrictions are eased is the problem. Public transport could be one area of concern. They will have to widen the test eligibility otherwise they will miss a large number of community infections.

At this stage I'd say they'll wait on that till they've dealt with the nursing homes testing but I reckon that redefining the test will come in or around 5 May. We'll also have antibody testing further along.

BonnieSituation

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

I dont know about their weddings to be honest but the person posting that had said that we'd follow a similar path.

I'd be very surprised if we had weddings going here by June

I was joking. But yeah, there isn't a hope of us following that lunacy. Not a chance.

New Home

ek motor wrote: »

Evidence of severe lung damage in six divers who contracted Covid-19, none of whom required hospitalization.

https://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?depth=1&hl=en&nv=1&pto=aue&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=auto&sp=nmt4&tl=en&u=https://www.rainews.it/tgr/tagesschau/articoli/2020/04/tag-Coronavirus-Lungeschaden-Forschung-Uniklinik-Innsbruck-6708e11e-28dc-4843-a760-e7f926ace61c.html&usg=ALkJrhicIZhmuTKOBYnuLrSoWLJoo66WYg

These cases were considered to have 'recovered' according to the article

That's what they were finding in infected children in China: they appeared to be fine, but CT scans showed lung damage.

tobefrank321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Very difficult to make a determination about community spread when they are doing next to no testing for community infections. But yes its likely to be very low. Its what happens when restrictions are eased is the problem. Public transport could be one area of concern. They will have to widen the test eligibility otherwise they will miss a large number of community infections.

Widening the eligibility is a prerequisite to easing restrictions. Its why the want to ramp testing capacity to 100k per week even though they only need a fraction of that now. I am sure there are a number of triggers in whatever plan they have to ease restriction, and testing capacity is certain to be one. I'd hope a sustained R0 of well under 1 is a second, and sufficient flex capacity in ICU to allow cases to rise slowly without overwhelming the system.

Poor_old_gill

BonnieSituation wrote: »

I was joking. But yeah, there isn't a hope of us following that lunacy. Not a chance.

I know!

It's a crazy time - hope you and all yours are keeping well and we can go back to our GAA slagging soon enough.

In fairness, using the Sun as a source for anything is akin to using Ewan McKenna as a source so I wouldnt pay any heed to that graphic posted!

A possible explanation for some differences in death rates - in some places physicians have been treating Covid-19 patients according to established protocols and seeing a 60% death rate in ICU, whereas some centres are now treating each patient according to underlying physiological conditions. Article below cites a centre in central europe with zero ICU deaths.



https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200407/doctors-puzzle-over-covid19-lung-problems

Glebee

A lot more people out and about today compared to a few days ago..

Doyler99

When the lock down ends in 2 weeks, can someone explain to me how the virus will spread then? Would it not have burned itself out by then? I don't see how someone will get infected?

Kermit.de.frog

Doyler99 wrote: »

When the lock down ends in 2 weeks, can someone explain to me how the virus will spread then? Would it not have burned itself out by then? I don't see how someone will get infected?

Is the 'lock down' ending in 2 weeks?

ek motor

[Deleted User] wrote: »

A possible explanation for some differences in death rates - in some places physicians have been treating Covid-19 patients according to established protocols and seeing a 60% death rate in ICU, whereas some centres are now treating each patient according to underlying physiological conditions. Article below cites a centre in central europe with zero ICU deaths.



https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200407/doctors-puzzle-over-covid19-lung-problems

It seems like ventilation can often do more harm than good to Covid-19 patients. Covid-19 seems to cause hypoxemia rather than a typical pneumonia.

Gooey Looey

Doyler99 wrote: »

When the lock down ends in 2 weeks, can someone explain to me how the virus will spread then? Would it not have burned itself out by then? I don't see how someone will get infected?

The lockdown won't end in 2 weeks. It will be gradual, over a few months

Pablo Escobar

Doyler99 wrote: »

When the lock down ends in 2 weeks, can someone explain to me how the virus will spread then? Would it not have burned itself out by then? I don't see how someone will get infected?

Because the virus is still circulating even at a rate below an R0 of 1.

ek motor

ek motor wrote: »

It seems like ventilation can often do more harm than good to Covid-19 patients. Covid-19 seems to cause hypoxemia rather than a typical pneumonia.

I think its more likely that there is no classic presentation for Covid-19 patients in ICU, some have hypoxemia, some pneumonia. There is certainly far less talk about ventilators than there was a few weeks ago

ACitizenErased

Number of people being treated in Cork has dropped by double figures over the weekend.
https://twitter.com/echolivecork/status/1252262723892776963?s=21

sonofenoch

Doyler99 wrote: »

When the lock down ends in 2 weeks, can someone explain to me how the virus will spread then? Would it not have burned itself out by then? I don't see how someone will get infected?

It's not a bush fire, will always be there ....people will get it some will die from it and so it was .......just like flu, and before someone screams it's not fking flu! .....well it's more flu like than say HIV for example

Flu was also one time a 'novel virus'

caveat emptor

We are currently >100 per million for reference.

https://twitter.com/R_H_Ebright/status/1252225045071527936?s=20

Shelga

So Novak Djokovic has exposed himself as an anti-vaxxer, ie complete moron:

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-novak-djokovic-reveals-hes-an-anti-vaxxer-and-it-may-stop-his-return-to-tennis-11975846

Hope the ATP says only vaccinated players can participate, if and when we get a vaccine. I respected Djokovic up to now, but publicly denouncing vaccines at this time is unbelievably irresponsible.

Eircom_Sucks

Sorry if asked before

Any word on todays numbers ?

Infected and deaths

What Username Guidelines

Another big enough drop in italy cases today, +2,256 cases, lowest since 10th March.