Czech Republic vs ROI

MadYaker

No, I would say they are suffering from a lack of measures that supressed the virus first time around.

Chivito550

MadYaker wrote: »

No, I would say they are suffering from a lack of measures that supressed the virus first time around.

How come other parts of Europe have far less deaths now than Czech Republic per 100,000, despite cases being rampant everywhere?

xhomelezz

Country was fully open whole summer, no restrictions. They just slept in this time. Cases were rising since half of the August I think. Government just let it go way too far this time. That's what Czech health minister apologized for.

Chivito550

Berties_Horse wrote: »

Your prejudice is showing, loading the question. "Lack of immunity", what exactly does that mean. That the Czechs intentionally conducted the herd immunity experiment last Spring? Good luck in your fishing expedition.

Easy there tiger.

It's a simple question. Are they suffering now because they had so little Covid cases and deaths in the Spring?

Its a valid question as other parts of Europe, where cases are now rampant, are not seeing the same rate of deaths.

MadYaker

Could be that doctors and nurses don't have the same experience treating it that medical staff in other parts of europe gained in the spring? Combined with the fact that they clearly took their eye off the ball during the summer, as admitted by the health minister it seems.

tobefrank321

Chivito550 wrote: »

The Czech Republic have been hit hard with cases and particularly deaths the last few weeks. They suppressed the virus so well the first time, so much so that you couldn't even call that a first wave. Now they are getting hit with it far worse than the other parts of Europe who suffered badly back in spring.

Does this highlight that lockdown doesn't work, and that Czech Republic is suffering now from lack of immunity built up earlier in the year?

More research needs to be done into it. It would interesting to see how Bergamo is doing these days for example. Stockholm seems to be doing reasonably well with minimal deaths in the last 2 months.

Can't really take countries by themselves, you have to break them down into regions and split cities into areas badly affected first time around.

But yes the more susceptible people you have the quicker and worse the outbreak as there's no circuit breakers.

xhomelezz

Chivito550 wrote: »

Easy there tiger.

It's a simple question. Are they suffering now because they had so little Covid cases and deaths in the Spring?

Its a valid question as other parts of Europe, where cases are now rampant, are not seeing the same rate of deaths.

It's hitting old vulnerable part of population harder now. They managed to contain infections better in march. Now there's way too much community infections, no control over the spread.

Bit cynical

They were praised in the earlier part of the outbreak for their use of masks which kept infections down. The problem with this approach is that if you have a strong suppression strategy you need to sustain it until a vaccine is available as little immunity is developed in the population. Any relaxation of measures therefore results in a sharp increase in transmission.

KindOfIrish

Chivito550 wrote: »

The Czech Republic have been hit hard with cases and particularly deaths the last few weeks. They suppressed the virus so well the first time, so much so that you couldn't even call that a first wave. Now they are getting hit with it far worse than the other parts of Europe who suffered badly back in spring.

Does this highlight that lockdown doesn't work, and that Czech Republic is suffering now from lack of immunity built up earlier in the year?

It highlights that lockdowns kill. Czechia had one of the most brutal lockdowns in Europe and now they "enjoy" result of it. But unfortunately for us, politicians, who introduced lockdowns in their countries, will never accept their deadly mistake.

Kermit.de.frog

...

smck321

Bit cynical wrote: »

They were praised in the earlier part of the outbreak for their use of masks which kept infections down. The problem with this approach is that if you have a strong suppression strategy you need to sustain it until a vaccine is available as little immunity is developed in the population. Any relaxation of measures therefore results in a sharp increase in transmission.

Is there any reliable evidence of significant immunity developing in countries who have more relaxed suppression strategies?

KindOfIrish

KindOfIrish wrote: »

It highlights that lockdowns kill. Czechia had one of the most brutal lockdowns in Europe and now they "enjoy" result of it. But unfortunately for us, politicians, who introduced lockdowns in their countries, will never accept their deadly mistake.

tobefrank321

smck321 wrote: »

Is there any reliable evidence of significant immunity developing in countries who have more relaxed suppression strategies?

No-one is interested in researching it it seems, as governments rule it out and pursue irrational and non sustainable approaches.

But its common sense that the more people you have immune the more circuit breakers you have, which is exactly what will happen when we have an effective vaccine. And which may take at least another 12 months to reach the whole population and even then may only be partially effective as those most vulnerable to dying from covid are also the least likely to react well to a vaccine (weakened immune systems).

odyssey06

tobefrank321 wrote: »

No-one is interested in researching it it seems, as governments rule it out and pursue irrational and non sustainable approaches.
But its common sense that the more people you have immune the more circuit breakers you have, which is exactly what will happen when we have an effective vaccine.

Your theory has never panned out for any disease before in written history unfortunately, it simply can't be relied upon.
You need to reach a critical mass of 'protected' to have effective herd immunity, something like 50-70%, pockets of protected people won't do it.

smck321

tobefrank321 wrote: »

No-one is interested in researching it it seems, as governments rule it out and pursue irrational and non sustainable approaches.

But its common sense that the more people you have immune the more circuit breakers you have, which is exactly what will happen when we have an effective vaccine. And which may take at least another 12 months to reach the whole population and even then may only be partially effective as those most vulnerable to dying from covid are also the least likely to react well to a vaccine (weakened immune systems).

There seems to be quite a lot of research on this active at present. The issue being anything acted upon must be 100% research wise and I certainly don't blame politicians and scientists for this stance. The society we live in now will crucify anyone who makes the wrong choice.

No matter what people who want lockdown ended say if hospitals get overrun and someone they know die the majority will blame someone else irrespective of the blame they carry for adding to the pressure they contributed to in making that decision. This is the issue with online forums, there's no threat of consequences like there is in the real world so there's no suprise there's many in favour of ending lockdown regardless of the impacts upon those are vunerable.

tobefrank321

odyssey06 wrote: »

Your theory has never panned out for any disease before in written history unfortunately, it simply can't be relied upon.
You need to reach a critical mass of 'protected' to have effective herd immunity, something like 50-70%, pockets of protected people won't do it.

One word - smallpox. Prior to modern vaccines, most farm workers were immune to cowpox and its relative smallpox. Look it up if you don't believe me. The farm workers were not vaccinated. They acquired natural immunity. Not really a similar illness to covid but the principle is similar, ie acquired immunity.

The Spanish flu is thought to have died out due to herd immunity as did many other serious flus since. There was no vaccine for the Spanish flu. It burnt itself out when enough people were infected and there was enough circuit breakers. Unless you can point me to the vaccine?

Beasty

Threads merged

odyssey06

tobefrank321 wrote: »

One word - smallpox. Prior to modern vaccines, most farm workers were immune to cowpox and its relative smallpox. Look it up if you don't believe me. The farm workers were not vaccinated. They acquired natural immunity. Not really a similar illness to covid but the principle is similar, ie acquired immunity.

The Spanish flu is thought to have died out due to herd immunity as did many other serious flus since. There was no vaccine for the Spanish flu. It burnt itself out when enough people were infected and there was enough circuit breakers. Unless you can point me to the vaccine?

I think cowpox-smallpox is such a special case where a different much milder virus afforded protection against a more serious one.
And society at large did not develop herd immunity to it.

Spanish flu? It doesn't seem to have been herd immunity, it was because the virus mutated. It is still with us today. I don't think we can rely on that here.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/

The impact of this pandemic was not limited to 1918–1919. All influenza A pandemics since that time, and indeed almost all cases of influenza A worldwide (excepting human infections from avian viruses such as H5N1 and H7N7), have been caused by descendants of the 1918 virus, including "drifted" H1N1 viruses and reassorted H2N2 and H3N2 viruses. The latter are composed of key genes from the 1918 virus, updated by subsequently incorporated avian influenza genes that code for novel surface proteins, making the 1918 virus indeed the "mother" of all pandemics.

a_squirrelman

KindOfIrish wrote: »

It highlights that lockdowns kill. Czechia had one of the most brutal lockdowns in Europe and now they "enjoy" result of it. But unfortunately for us, politicians, who introduced lockdowns in their countries, will never accept their deadly mistake.

That is BS, what happened in Czechia is they "reopened" and got lax too early.
They even had a farewell pandemic party on Charles Bridge in July, then they totally switched off, the masks were no longer mandatory in shops etc.



They got it right for the first 2/3 months, then they gave up.
And Slovakia is slowly going the same way, hospitals will be in tatters in the next few weeks.

tobefrank321

odyssey06 wrote: »

I think cowpox-smallpox is such a special case where a different much milder virus afforded protection against a more serious one.
And society at large did not develop herd immunity to it.

Spanish flu? It doesn't seem to have been herd immunity, it was because the virus mutated. It is still with us today. I don't think we can rely on that here.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3291398/

The impact of this pandemic was not limited to 1918–1919. All influenza A pandemics since that time, and indeed almost all cases of influenza A worldwide (excepting human infections from avian viruses such as H5N1 and H7N7), have been caused by descendants of the 1918 virus, including "drifted" H1N1 viruses and reassorted H2N2 and H3N2 viruses. The latter are composed of key genes from the 1918 virus, updated by subsequently incorporated avian influenza genes that code for novel surface proteins, making the 1918 virus indeed the "mother" of all pandemics.

To be honest I don't think you've looked into the proposed covid 19 vaccines or considered any vaccines. They generally work less well on people with weakened immune systems, which is also the same cohort most likely to die from covid 19. Do you accept that a vaccine may only be partially effective when used on the very old and those with weakened immune systems?

Its not like for example a measles vaccine which is generally used on young people with strong immune systems which give strong responses.

Now the covid vaccine may depend for its success on a large number of the healthy being vaccinated instead. But how long will that take? And while its being rolled out, we will still need restrictions to protect the elderly and vulnerable.

And we know many people won't take any vaccine. The uptake of the flu vaccine in Ireland among medical staff is usually only 50%, a vaccine that's been around in one shape or another for decades. Do we force them to take a covid vaccine?

And from what I can see, some of the proposed vaccines don't actually stop you getting infected or passing it on, it just lessons symptoms. So someone could be vaccinated and still pass it on to someone more vulnerable.

The WHO are right about one thing, a vaccine will not be a silver bullet and in fact may not achieve much.

And that leaves what appears to be inevitable now and probably the most realistic outcome, that the majority of people become infected anyways and become immune for an amount of time.

MadYaker

tobefrank321 wrote: »

One word - smallpox. Prior to modern vaccines, most farm workers were immune to cowpox and its relative smallpox. Look it up if you don't believe me. The farm workers were not vaccinated. They acquired natural immunity. Not really a similar illness to covid but the principle is similar, ie acquired immunity.

The Spanish flu is thought to have died out due to herd immunity as did many other serious flus since. There was no vaccine for the Spanish flu. It burnt itself out when enough people were infected and there was enough circuit breakers. Unless you can point me to the vaccine?

How many tens of millions died before herd immunity was achieved? If they had vaccines they would have done exactly what we’re doing.

tobefrank321

MadYaker wrote: »

How many tens of millions died before herd immunity was achieved? If they had vaccines they would have done exactly what we’re doing.

Newsflash, we don't have a vaccine for cv19 either. And when it does arrive its very unlikely to work on those who need it most, ie those with weak immune systems. It could take a year to vaccinate everyone else to achieve herd immunity. And while we wait for full herd immunity, we will still need lockdowns and restrictions to protect vulnerable categories.

bb1234567

Chivito550 wrote: »

Easy there tiger.

It's a simple question. Are they suffering now because they had so little Covid cases and deaths in the Spring?

Its a valid question as other parts of Europe, where cases are now rampant, are not seeing the same rate of deaths.

Madrid is seeing as many deaths per capita, the most 'immune' part of Spain

40 deaths in Madrid yesterday, almost twice as many deaths as the Czech Republic per capita the last few days. Madrid had the highest excess deaths in all of Europe in the first wave, and now it has the highest excess deaths in Europe yet again in the second wave. Clearly it takes an awfully high level of immunity to stop a covid outbreak naturally

But I'm sure youll make up some reason why Madrid is such an exception and it won't happen anywhere else

tobefrank321

bb1234567 wrote: »

Madrid is seeing as many deaths per capita, the most 'immune' part of Spain

40 deaths in Madrid yesterday, almost twice as many deaths as the Czech Republic per capita the last few days. Madrid had the highest excess deaths in all of Europe in the first wave, and now it has the highest excess deaths in Europe yet again in the second wave. Clearly it takes an awfully high level of immunity to stop a covid outbreak naturally

But I'm sure youll make up some reason why Madrid is such an exception and it won't happen anywhere else

I've a feeling if you dig deeper with Madrid you might find certain parts of the city were hit badly early in the year but are now doing ok and then other parts did better earlier but are worse now.

From what I can see Stockholm for example is doing reasonably well now, few if any deaths these days. But according to those who live there its a different part of the city affected this time around.

bb1234567

tobefrank321 wrote: »

I've a feeling if you dig deeper with Madrid you might find certain parts of the city were hit badly early in the year but are now doing ok and then other parts did better earlier but are worse now.

From what I can see Stockholm for example is doing reasonably well now, few if any deaths these days. But according to those who live there its a different part of the city affected this time around.

Interesting, I wonder if there are any parts of Dublin that may have significantly more immunity than other parts. I guess Dublin is a pretty homogenous city so probably nothing major

Bit cynical

smck321 wrote: »

Is there any reliable evidence of significant immunity developing in countries who have more relaxed suppression strategies?

The idea of immunity from contracting a virus is not particularly controversial. All the models will have it as a parameter. It is what causes the curve to go downwards after rising to a peak if everything else remains constant.

Bit cynical

tobefrank321 wrote: »

From what I can see Stockholm for example is doing reasonably well now, few if any deaths these days. But according to those who live there its a different part of the city affected this time around.

From the other thread, if I recall correctly, it is fairly well-to-do part of the city that escaped earlier. This makes sense. Fewer working in hospitality and services; more working from home etc.

Donald Trump

The Czech situation now is likely due to simple complacency.

They dealt with it extremely well at the start. It probably got to the stage where they thought that the virus was no big deal. So people got a little sloppy and numbers went up. Then by the time they realised that it was getting out of control, it was endemic and was embedded in the community.

McGiver

KindOfIrish wrote:

It highlights that lockdowns kill. Czechia had one of the most brutal lockdowns in Europe and now they "enjoy" result of it. But unfortunately for us, politicians, who introduced lockdowns in their countries, will never accept their deadly mistake.

Nonsense. Don't post if you don't know details. You clearly have an agenda to push.

Greece, France or Spain had tougher lockdowns. In fact even Ireland did too.

At no point there was house arrest or restricted movement of people in Czechia during the lockdown 1, people could go to and from work and also travel nationwide as long as they had a mask. Whereas here we couldn't go further than 2km, then 5km from home and then out of the county. Right now the same.

In Greece or France you had to get a permit to go out of the house!

McGiver

xhomelezz wrote:

It's hitting old vulnerable part of population harder now. They managed to contain infections better in march. Now there's way too much community infections, no control over the spread.

Are you sure? In the daily stats on aktuálně.cz to me it looks like 66% of cases are 15-55 age bracket. That's actually exactly the opposite of what you say. That's why hospitalizations (and deaths) so far aren't proportional to number of cases. The April peak vs current cases per capita is difference of 1200%, whereas hospitalisations April peak vs now is 700%.