Czech Republic vs ROI

McGiver

tobefrank321 wrote:

One word - smallpox. Prior to modern vaccines, most farm workers were immune to cowpox and its relative smallpox. Look it up if you don't believe me. The farm workers were not vaccinated. They acquired natural immunity. Not really a similar illness to covid but the principle is similar, ie acquired immunity.

Coronaviruses generate only limited immunity (time wise). Completely different than say pox viruses - that's a life time immunity.

Herd immunity with Covid is not possible at least not without vaccine. You need cellular immunity on a population level and that takes a lot of time to establish + high % vaccinated.

McGiver

odyssey06 wrote:

Your theory has never panned out for any disease before in written history unfortunately, it simply can't be relied upon. You need to reach a critical mass of 'protected' to have effective herd immunity, something like 50-70%, pockets of protected people won't do it.

You'll likely need more plus we'll see if we'll need annual or repeated vaccines, coronaviruses don't generate a long immune response, includes common cold, which generates 1-2 years immunity max. Current research shows it could be less with Sars-cov-2.

I believe we'll need eradication strategy here.

Strong suppressing + vaccination - > eradication

That's exactly what the Czech government were going to do, but they loosened it up before vaccinating, fatal mistake. That's what happens when a populist billionaire oligarch clown becomes a PM of a country and gets to decide on serious stuff. At least it's a minority government, there's an opposition controlled Senate and independent Constitutional Court to watch the executive. Plus the the NGO and civic society sphere is really healthy

It's nowhere near as bad as Hungary or Poland, Poland for example doesn't share the full dataset with ECDC, I'd question there corona stats.

McGiver

Donald Trump wrote:

The Czech situation now is likely due to simple complacency.

No, that's not the primary reason. It contributed to it though.

The primary reason is that the Czech billionaire populist PM (he's a Slovak actually), the owner of a conglomerate of chemical, agricultural and food industry companies amongst others, actively forcedhis puppet Health Minister to loosen up restrictions very quickly beginning of July. He actually made him drop monitoring the R0 and also drop any tracing or widescale testing. There were serious large scale serological studies done before that in May and June and the overall testing policy was very robust. All binned including the excellent progress made until June, because of the pressure of the PM.

New health minister now, who is an epidemiologist hardliner (suppressing/eradication strategy), he won't listen to the PM, will go hard and will fix it.

Yes, people's complacency and Covid fatigue didn't help but that's not the primary reason.

xhomelezz

McGiver wrote: »

Are you sure? In the daily stats on aktuálně.cz to me it looks like 66% of cases are 15-55 age bracket. That's actually exactly the opposite of what you say. That's why hospitalizations (and deaths) so far aren't proportional to number of cases. The April peak vs current cases per capita is difference of 1200%, whereas hospitalisations April peak vs now is 700%.

What I meant is, it's hitting old vulnerable population more now than it was in march and April. That's why there is more deaths since the second wave started. As of now I think there is 115 outbreaks in senior care homes.

McGiver

xhomelezz wrote:

What I meant is, it's hitting old vulnerable population more now than it was in march and April. That's why there is more deaths since the second wave started. As of now I think there is 115 outbreaks in senior care homes.

Oh Right, didn't know that about the care homes. Is the data on that available?

xhomelezz

McGiver wrote: »

Oh Right, didn't know that about the care homes. Is the data on that available?

Couldn't find them, I'm just going by the News channels from home. Figure of outbreaks in care homes was posted on iDnes. Failing to find some good stats or breakdowns of numbers etc.

xhomelezz

Btw how do you feel about the way they sorting the situation now?

MadYaker

There was a guy posting in the restrictions thread who was in Czech Republic a few months ago, would be interesting to get their take if they live there but I can't remember the username.

xhomelezz

Czech portion of clowns in action in Prague protest.

https://english.radio.cz/thousands-attend-prague-protest-against-governments-covid-19-restrictions-8697521

There should be no gatherings like that at all.

McGiver

xhomelezz wrote:

Czech portion of clowns in action in Prague protest.

The demonstration was initiated by supporters of Baník Ostrava football club...

FC Banik Ostrava hooligans are probably the worst scum you can find in the country, so I'm not surprised, but what I'm surprised about is that they went political and against the masks. Don't hooligans sort of wear bandanas over the gob when they fight between themselves?

McGiver

xhomelezz wrote:

Btw how do you feel about the way they sorting the situation now?

I think it's adequate but they'll need to go harder, much harder very soon. It's out of control and hospitals will run out of ICU beds soon, so something will have to be done.

Today's ECDC data - 828 cases/100k, that's bad, approaching 1% of the population.

Saying that deaths/capita are still half of Ireland's but they're rising rapidly, it was some 500 at the beginning of September, it's 1300 now.

Belgium is also in a runaway situation - 700 cases/100k. Worth watching but I don't speak French so hard to find information otherwise.

McGiver

Had a look at the Brussels Times as it's in English. The Belgians are saying Brussels cases/capita are the worst in Europe. They're talking about curfew as in France.

Interestingly enough France case/capita is half of Belgium's (or Czechia's) at 390/100k.

Ireland is now at 225/100k approaching the April peak, given the extremely low ICU/capita and frail health care here, I predict we'll see L5 lockdown plus something else on top in the next few days. I think the gov is looking at Czech or Belgian numbers and are ****ting their pants, because no way the health care here can sustain anything more than 400 in my opinion and if there's no emergency brake deployed the numbers can get very quickly to the same numbers as in Belgium etc.

bb1234567

McGiver wrote: »

I think it's adequate but they'll need to go harder, much harder very soon. It's out of control and hospitals will run out of ICU beds soon, so something will have to be done.

Today's ECDC data - 828 cases/100k, that's bad, approaching 1% of the population.

Saying that deaths/capita are still half of Ireland's but they're rising rapidly, it was some 500 at the beginning of September, it's 1300 now.

Belgium is also in a runaway situation - 700 cases/100k. Worth watching but I don't speak French so hard to find information otherwise.

70 deaths in CZ today, they will quickly overtake deaths per capita in Ireland soon - probably within 2-3 weeks

Away With The Fairies

bb1234567 wrote: »

70 deaths in CZ today, they will quickly overtake deaths per capita in Ireland soon - probably within 2-3 weeks

They were doing so good earlier in the year. What's going on now, any guesses?

xhomelezz

3500 people in hospitals

589 in serious condition

380 dead in the last week

riffmongous

McGiver wrote: »

FC Banik Ostrava hooligans are probably the worst scum you can find in the country, so I'm not surprised, but what I'm surprised about is that they went political and against the masks. Don't hooligans sort of wear bandanas over the gob when they fight between themselves?

I don't think they went against nasks (I'm sure they're delighted to be able to wear them in public now too, like you say) but rather the gathering restrictions which affect football groups badly

xhomelezz

All they care about is to use any reason for a stupid fight. So hoping they got plenty of beating from cops.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AGLRDTn03w

bb1234567

Looks as though CZ may exceed 100 deaths today. 80 deaths already , they report once in the daytime and a second at night. Sounds high but we hit 40-60 deaths on some days during the peak in April so proportionally it's about the same as us

xhomelezz

bb1234567 wrote: »

Looks as though CZ may exceed 100 deaths today. 80 deaths already , they report once in the daytime and a second at night. Sounds high but we hit 40-60 deaths on some days during the peak in April so proportionally it's about the same as us

They expecting numbers will keep rising for another two weeks. Hospitals will get under a lot of pressure.

McGiver

For anyone interested, this is an excellent account of what happened in Czechia by the CNN. Very much the same narrative I posted here couple of days ago.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/19/europe/czech-republic-coronavirus-intl/index.html

Covid fatigue for sure, but the issue was clearly caused by the populist PM, they used the term "mini-Trump" in the article, unlike Trump he's not really conservative or xenophobic he's just totally spineless and constantly campaigning based on surveys, whatever gives him political points based on those surveys is what he does, he's no political position or ideology - populism in its purest form, his opinions change daily basically.