Relaxation of restrictions Part II

growleaves

Link

Dr de Brun argued that such strategies, including lockdown and social distancing, would also allow the virus time to mutate and delay any herd immunity that might be achieved.

In the same blog post, he criticised the Government’s response for being too focused on minimising the chances of the health system being overloaded. He argued that due to relatively low population density and the age profile of the population, a more tailored approach to combating the virus should have been deployed by Ireland.

“Unfortunately, Ireland has not tailored its response to reflect these factors, but instead, has simply followed the lead of other jurisdictions, with entirely different demographics and mortality/morbidity statistics.”

In his analysis, the Irish strategy should have been focused on isolating at-risk groups, including older people, rather than confining the entire population. “Those most at risk, vis the elderly and nursing home residents, have featured as something of an afterthought,” he said.

“Unquestionably the most vulnerable cohort of patients in Ireland are those residents of nursing homes. This fact should have been
entirely obvious to all involved in the management of the crisis,” he wrote.

road_high

fr336 wrote: »

We're in April, Fintan. 3 and a half weeks of lockdown. Summer still all to play for if it's done properly. But the mindset of "go go go get whole economy back up now now now" is precisely one of the reasons there may be more extensions.

No. Early March stuff started cancelling for me. We’re close to two months of closures/lockdowns of various degrees. Time to call a halt to the madness and resume some semblance of normality.

fr336

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Are you a teacher who is including 2 weeks holiday at easter not part of lockdown?

Nope. I can just cope with a few weeks of this to save many lives and businesses. School holidays are at least 6 weeks, when most of the country goes on holiday. No big deal then.

FintanMcluskey

bettyoleary wrote: »

But that wasn't the reason he resigned was it? I thought he resigned because of the way the un elected govt dealt with the elderly of our country or didn't deal with them to be exact

Thats the was it was span in RTE.
He released this report and resigned.
https://sway.office.com/PwTN7GCvJWDgn9yd?ref=Link
I hope that link works

niallo27

One of the largest construction groups in the country are back the 6th of May. Lots of things happening behind the scenes.

FintanMcluskey

fr336 wrote: »

Nope. I can just cope with a few weeks of this to save many lives and businesses. School holidays are at least 6 weeks, when most of the country goes on holiday. No big deal then.

Ok well best of luck that. Will you let me know how those lives are in September and how those business are getting on

fr336

niallo27 wrote: »

See how things go, you cant tell businesses sure wait and see there how it goes.

Yes you can. With government assistance. Businesses have to deal with all sorts in many countries - wars, natural disasters. Brexit wasn't exactly a time of certainty for them.

riffmongous

Stick with it until you get it under control, that's what we did in Austria and now we have new cases below 100 a day for 5 days in a row and a clear plan for lifting the lockdown/ restrictions

Icyseanfitz

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Absoultely not. No evidence that lockdowns will have any effect on yearly death toll

maybe I am just dim witted but are you saying lock-downs have zero effect on transmission numbers and then because of that the death numbers?

Spencer Brown

fr336 wrote: »

So you want everything back to normal in a rush? No restrictions at all, no cautions...just lazy, no thought, back to the way things were? Genius!

Who is suggesting that every single restriction should be gone start of May? Quote me even one post suggesting that.

road_high

GazzaL wrote: »

Fair play to him. Carpe diem. He's not the only elderly person with that attitude. I know a few pensioners who are clamouring to go back to work as well, both worked full time before the lockdown.

Have a work colleague who is 70. Hardy as anyone. I’ve no doubt he’ll want to get going again within a reasonable spectrum of guidelines. Those that are advocating locking these people away do our elders a great disservice- they have so much to give to society and their families yet.
They’re not old china to be locked away. They need to live too.

DeVore

growleaves wrote: »

Link

Dr de Brun argued that such strategies, including lockdown and social distancing, would also allow the virus time to mutate and delay any herd immunity that might be achieved.

In the same blog post, he criticised the Government’s response for being too focused on minimising the chances of the health system being overloaded. He argued that due to relatively low population density and the age profile of the population, a more tailored approach to combating the virus should have been deployed by Ireland.

“Unfortunately, Ireland has not tailored its response to reflect these factors, but instead, has simply followed the lead of other jurisdictions, with entirely different demographics and mortality/morbidity statistics.”

In his analysis, the Irish strategy should have been focused on isolating at-risk groups, including older people, rather than confining the entire population. “Those most at risk, vis the elderly and nursing home residents, have featured as something of an afterthought,” he said.

“Unquestionably the most vulnerable cohort of patients in Ireland are those residents of nursing homes. This fact should have been
entirely obvious to all involved in the management of the crisis,” he wrote.

Easy game to play backwards.

BanditLuke

niallo27 wrote: »

One of the largest construction groups in the country are back the 6th of May. Lots of things happening behind the scenes.

They will be back depending on the numbers over the next couple of weeks. Nothing is concrete yet pardon the pun.

I completely expect the government to open up everything too fast though and for us to be back to square on by mid June.

fr336

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Ok well best of luck that. Will you let me know how those lives are in September and how those business are getting on

We're in April, Fintan. September is 5 months away. With your "strategy" restrictions lifted too early, huge surge in cases (including people off sick) and deaths, and economic chaos. Then this continues into September, perhaps into next year. Best way to deal with a once in a lifetime crisis? Nip it in the bud rather than keep coming back to it and prolonging the disruption.

martingriff

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Ironically (apart from those who need care settings) the cocooning group in the main are the healthy and wealthy ones who will sustain the economy in the long run.

Was listening (for about five minutes) to a lady on Joe Duffy, yes I know, but I can now that am wfh. And she was in Portland, Seattle, Lahinch and TallaghtCante in Spain over the last six months.

They are our future. The rest of us are in debt. We need to keep them alive to pay for all this. Forget this at your peril.

She is our future and not in debt. Are you sure. With all those holidays. The rest of us are in debt is a bold statement

FintanMcluskey

Icyseanfitz wrote: »

maybe I am just dim witted but are you saying lock-downs have zero effect on transmission numbers and then because of that the death numbers?

No no read my post again

road_high

niallo27 wrote: »

One of the largest construction groups in the country are back the 6th of May. Lots of things happening behind the scenes.

Good for them, first of many please god and not too much damage done to their industry.

growleaves

DeVore wrote: »

Easy game to play backwards.

True.

martingriff

road_high wrote: »

No. Early March stuff started cancelling for me. We’re close to two months of closures/lockdowns of various degrees. Time to call a halt to the madness and resume some semblance of normality.

What do you think should be resumed. I am with you I think we are a couple of weeks to an ease of some restriction

FintanMcluskey

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Ironically (apart from those who need care settings) the cocooning group in the main are the healthy and wealthy ones who will sustain the economy in the long run.

Was listening (for about five minutes) to a lady on Joe Duffy, yes I know, but I can now that am wfh. And she was in Portland, Seattle, Lahinch and TallaghtCante in Spain over the last six months.

They are our future. The rest of us are in debt. We need to keep them alive to pay for all this. Forget this at your peril.

So the future is some auld one on Joe Duffy whos spends her holiday on Lahinch? Have you been to Lahinch lately?

Spencer Brown

fr336 wrote: »

We're in April, Fintan. September is 5 months away. With your "strategy" restrictions lifted too early, huge surge in cases (including people off sick) and deaths, and economic chaos. Then this continues into September, perhaps into next year. Best way to deal with a once in a lifetime crisis? Nip it in the bud rather than keep coming back to it and prolonging the disruption.

This isn't a solution. Presumably your plan of eradicating it completely involves shutting down all travel into the country until the rest of the world is also rid of it?

zerosugarbuzz

cian68 wrote: »

What makes you think we are ready now? I would love for restrictions to be eased on May 5th but I wouldn't know if it is the time so I'm interested why you think it is.

Because the cure is becoming worse than the disease for the majority. Most of us need to get back to work so that we don’t end up with a Stone Age economy. In order for the old and vulnerable to be looked after those of us who do not fall into those categories need to be contributing as normal.

niallo27

fr336 wrote: »

Yes you can. With government assistance. Businesses have to deal with all sorts in many countries - wars, natural disasters. Brexit wasn't exactly a time of certainty for them.

What wars and natural disasters have we had to deal with.

road_high

martingriff wrote: »

What do you think should be resumed. I am with you I think we are a couple of weeks to an ease of some restriction

Follow the paths Germany and other neighbours are on. Slowly reopening with continued social distancing and hygiene.
Work from home to continue for those that can. Staggered shifts also in offices/factories etc.
Allow restaurants and cafes open for take away and/or social distancing.
Similar for all small business really. We will take baby steps and not rush back into anything.
Schools etc to follow after that

martingriff

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

So the future is some auld one on Joe Duffy whos spends her holiday on Lahinch? Have you been to Lahinch lately?

Nothing wrong with Lahinch. Nicer places in Clare but a good start

DeVore

road_high wrote: »

Have a work colleague who is 70. Hardy as anyone. I’ve no doubt he’ll want to get going again within a reasonable spectrum of guidelines. Those that are advocating locking these people away do our elders a great disservice- they have so much to give to society and their families yet.
They’re not old china to be locked away. They need to live too.

Theres a guy who is in my wood turning group. 75, carpenter all his life, real Dub. Strong as **** from lifting.. no he's dead now.

2 days ago.

This virus doesnt give a sh*t about you.

Cork Boy 53

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Absoultely not. No evidence that lockdowns will have any effect on yearly death toll

Absolutely no evidence that they won`t either.

bettyoleary

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Thats the was it was span in RTE.
He released this report and resigned.
https://sway.office.com/PwTN7GCvJWDgn9yd?ref=Link
I hope that link works

He believes the govt have messed up royally but I'm not so sure if they did. Why would he be the only person involved in Govt to grasp this. I think they knew exactly what they were doing from the start and know exactly what they will be doing until the end and no matter how much we argue amongst ourselves the future is decided. They have a very very good idea of the trajectory of this disease now and unless a vaccine is found to work they wont be changing their plan.

USA, UK, Ireland they know what they are going to do. and who their plan will benefit and it will be largely themselves.

road_high

BanditLuke wrote: »

They will be back depending on the numbers over the next couple of weeks. Nothing is concrete yet pardon the pun.

I completely expect the government to open up everything too fast though and for us to be back to square on by mid June.

There’s no evidence of that being planned or indeed being likely to happen

Icyseanfitz

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No no read my post again

"No evidence that lockdowns will have any effect on yearly death toll"

As i said maybe I am Dim, but either your saying lockdowns wont effect the number of people dying from corona virus one way or the other, or that lockdowns wont effect the number of people dying within 2020

no lockdown = more people dying, Covid-19 = more people than normal average dying