Relaxation of restrictions Part II

Goldengirl

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Is there information for this I can't find any?

Go look up the stats from all the briefings this last week . That is where I saw it

Goldengirl

ceadaoin. wrote: »

One month doesn't mean anything. Much better to look back at the numbers for the year and see if they are significantly higher overall. For all we know deaths could spike for a few months then be lower than usual in other months so that it all averages out. I suspect that will turn out to be the likely scenario, rather than a hugely disproportionate number of deaths compared to other years.

I apologise for not having the link to the briefing , but he showed deaths for the last 12 months , I think and overlaid them with average deaths in these months and the highest deaths . It was clearly higher inJan , Feb and Mar this year and highest of all in April .

easypazz

Penfailed wrote: »

I think this post will annoy/satisfy both cohorts in the thread. I've just caught up on about five or six pages. The reason I was so far behind - I was at work today! The crowd I work for have reopened. That will keep the 'open everything' crowd happy. It's construction, so it's mostly outdoor. The reason it will annoy some of those same people is because it's in the north. I'll be crossing the border in the morning and crossing it again in the evening.

Good news.

The north seem to be getting numbers under control as well now.

tobefrank321

kelso00 wrote: »

You are probably referring to stats from Rip.ie. Here is more reliable source. Easy to compare to other counties.


https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/


We are in the same trend as ie, Austria, Denmark, Germany. Completely different than UK, Spain or Italy

This is not more reliable. We have the same deaths per million as Sweden and they are showing an all time high spike. We meanwhile are showing an all time low!

Even Varadkar said our excess deaths are calculated months behind.

Goldengirl

kelso00 wrote: »

You are probably referring to stats from Rip.ie. Here is more reliable source. Easy to compare to other counties.


https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps/


We are in the same trend as ie, Austria, Denmark, Germany. Completely different than UK, Spain or Italy

That is really clear thanks for that.
Yes it was the stats from RIP.ie that they were talking about .

normanoffside

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

OK. If this is the case then I withdraw my previous comments. Satisfied now?

Yes, thanks.

Penfailed

easypazz wrote: »

Good news.

The north seem to be getting numbers under control as well now.

Same sh1te with nursing homes though. It was reported this morning that, out of 38 residents in one nursing home, 36 tested positive. It's a sh1tshow everywhere as far as that goes.
I'm glad to be out and about again. I've barely left the house in six or seven weeks. Work is going to be completely different than it was in early March though. Everything is going to be slower due to the social distancing. PPE was already pretty full on...now it's on steroids. Paperwork will still be done from home. Anyway...the May Day bank holiday in the north is tomorrow!

Goldengirl

Penfailed wrote: »

Same sh1te with nursing homes though. It was reported this morning that, out of 38 residents in one nursing home, 36 tested positive. It's a sh1tshow everywhere as far as that goes.
I'm glad to be out and about again. I've barely left the house in six or seven weeks. Work is going to be completely different than it was in early March though. Everything is going to be slower due to the social distancing. PPE was already pretty full on...now it's on steroids. Paperwork will still be done from home. Anyway...the May Day bank holiday in the north is tomorrow!

So you get 2 bank holidays?

gozunda

Penfailed wrote: »

Same sh1te with nursing homes though. It was reported this morning that, out of 38 residents in one nursing home, 36 tested positive. It's a sh1tshow everywhere as far as that goes.
I'm glad to be out and about again. I've barely left the house in six or seven weeks. Work is going to be completely different than it was in early March though. Everything is going to be slower due to the social distancing. PPE was already pretty full on...now it's on steroids. Paperwork will still be done from home. Anyway...the May Day bank holiday in the north is tomorrow!

Looks like they're not for easing restictions either. Similar problem with small number of slackers not engaging with the restrictions as here

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0507/1137094-coronavirus-northern-ireland/

Cork Boy 53

kippy wrote: »

Great post. Totally disagree with it but great post

Actually it is a disgraceful post. Full of bluster, empty rhetoric and incitement to law breaking. I am amazed the mods have allowed it to stay up.

easypazz

stephenjmcd wrote: »

HSE hospital report after being issued for today.

As of 8pm tonight there are 76 confirmed cases in ICU.

Also as of 8pm there are 569 confirmed cases in acute hospitals.

Last night that was 82 confirmed cases in ICU and 618 cases in acute hospitals.

Solid trend now. Hopefully more of our hard lockdown measures will be relaxed ahead of the current roadmap and all the people really struggling and suffering hardship can start to rebuild their lives.

timmy_mallet

gozunda wrote: »

Looks like they're not for easing restictions either. Similar problem with small number of slackers as here

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0507/1137094-coronavirus-northern-ireland/

Yeah, those healthcare workers and care home residents, right slackers, aren't they.

gozunda

Goldengirl wrote: »

That is really clear thanks for that.
Yes it was the stats from RIP.ie that they were talking about .

The findings are from an academic study by Dr Gerard McCarthy who is a lecturer in the Department of Geography at Maynooth University and Dr Pádraig MacCarron who is an applied  mathematician and Complex Networks Researcher at the University of Limerick

Using data gathered from RIP.ie they noted that
there were more death notices posted in April 2020 for Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Meath, Louth, Cavan, and Monaghan than any other month from 2010 to present. In Carlow, Cork, and Kerry, the number of death notices in April 2020 is the highest number of postings in any April. Some counties showed no significant changes however.

More on the study here:

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/

Goldengirl

gozunda wrote: »

The findings are from an academic study by Dr Gerard McCarthy who is a lecturer in the Department of Geography at Maynooth University and Dr Pádraig MacCarron who is an applied  mathematician and Complex Networks Researcher at the University of Limerick

Using data gathered from RIP.ie they noted that
there were more death notices posted in April 2020 for Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Meath, Louth, Cavan, and Monaghan than any other month from 2010 to present. In Carlow, Cork, and Kerry, the number of death notices in April 2020 is the highest number of postings in any April. Some counties showed no significant changes however.

More on the study here:

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/

Thanks , that was it. I had half an eye on it and on the dinner and what stood out was the highest number of deaths in April 2020 .

gozunda

timmy_mallet wrote: »

Yeah, those healthcare workers and care home residents, right slackers, aren't they.

But who said anything about "healthcare workers and care home residents"?

I presume you are replying to the wrong comment That's seems to be happening a lot tbh. No worries.

Read the article where it refers to those choosing not to observe the restrictions. The sound little different from the slackers here tbh.

Adherence to virus restrictions slipping - police

Adherence to Covid-19 restrictions has slipped over recent weeks, according to the assistant chief constable of the Police Service of Northern Ireland.

Traffic numbers have been increasing week-on-week for the last five weeks, Alan Todd said.

He is warning against complacency this bank holiday weekend, and said outdoor parties involving drink could see social distancing rules flouted...

Sound familiar?

uli84

easypazz wrote: »

Solid trend now. Hopefully more of our hard lockdown measures will be relaxed ahead of the current roadmap and all the people really struggling and suffering hardship can start to rebuild their lives.

Not holding my breath to be honest but hey maybe i’ll be surprised

Penfailed

Goldengirl wrote: »

So you get 2 bank holidays?

Unfortunately not!

Penfailed

gozunda wrote: »

Looks like they're not for easing restictions either. Similar problem with small number of slackers as here

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0507/1137094-coronavirus-northern-ireland/

In my opinion, it should be a joined up effort between north and south. It can't really work any other way. It should be the same approach.

kelso00

gozunda wrote: »

The findings are from an academic study by Dr Gerard McCarthy who is a lecturer in the Department of Geography at Maynooth University and Dr Pádraig MacCarron who is an applied mathematician and Complex Networks Researcher at the University of Limerick

Using data gathered from RIP.ie they noted that
there were more death notices posted in April 2020 for Dublin, Kildare, Laois, Meath, Louth, Cavan, and Monaghan than any other month from 2010 to present. In Carlow, Cork, and Kerry, the number of death notices in April 2020 is the highest number of postings in any April. Some counties showed no significant changes however.

More on the study here:

https://www.rte.ie/brainstorm/2020/0505/1136496-death-notices-ireland-coronavirus/

This is study on number of death notices not number of actual deaths. As bad as it sounds rip.ie is some sort of "social media" and depends on families publishing the notice.


Gerard McCarthy twit:
"A county-by-county analysis of numbers of death notices posted to http://RIP.ie in April 2020. Many counties (red) have posted the highest number of notices ever. Others (orange) have posted the highest numbers for April."



source: https://twitter.com/ger_the_sea/status/1257680812671217665

BoatMad

stephenjmcd wrote: »

HSE hospital report after being issued for today.

As of 8pm tonight there are 76 confirmed cases in ICU.

Also as of 8pm there are 569 confirmed cases in acute hospitals.

Last night that was 82 confirmed cases in ICU and 618 cases in acute hospitals.

its clear we are over doing it , an Ro<=0.5 means the virus isnt basically spreading at all.

Social distancing works, the rest of the lockdown measure are arguably not that effective . we need to beef up social distancing ( with legal backup ) and remove other restrictions , especially the regional travel ones as they are doing little

BoatMad

teh rip study and teh RTE piece has this

Nationally, the number of death notices posted on RIP.ie in April 2020 for the whole of Ireland are the highest on record, but comparable with January 2018 and 2017 when there was a bad flu season.

and

There is increasingly heated debate about whether the unprecedented measures implemented to combat the spread of Covid-19 are necessary to maintain, if excess mortality is comparable to that of the seasonal flu. However, this picture of the national situation, where Ireland could be on track to keeping mortality to that of a bad flu season

sugest that we might escape with essentially a bad year flu numbers

gozunda

H

kelso00 wrote: »

This is study on number of death notices not number of actual deaths. As bad as it sounds rip.ie is some sort of "social media" and depends on families publishing the notice.


Gerard McCarthy twit:
"A county-by-county analysis of numbers of death notices posted to http://RIP.ie in April 2020. Many counties (red) have posted the highest number of notices ever. Others (orange) have posted the highest numbers for April."



source: https://twitter.com/ger_the_sea/status/1257680812671217665

So you are saying the figures for Covid-19 deaths should be even higher :eek:

Assetbacked

gozunda wrote: »

But who said anything about "healthcare workers and care home residents"?

I presume you are replying to the wrong comment That's seems to be happening a lot tbh. No worries.

Read the article where it refers to those choosing not to observe the restrictions. The sound little different from the slackers here tbh.



Sound familiar?

The numbers paint a different picture though, community transmission is dead. Tony even announced that the virus has been suppressed in the community earlier today. It's done, time to move on, get back to a form of normal with social distancing, better hygiene practices and whatever is advised but the main thing is to reopen the country as the public have shown their responsibility by suppressing the virus.

gozunda

BoatMad wrote: »

teh rip study and teh RTE piece has this

and

sugest that we might escape with essentially a bad year flu numbers

That was for January only

Flu season has finished for now in Ireland according to the HSE. Not so Covid-19

lord quackinton

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0507/1137125-coronavirus-analysis/

Time to open up people

gozunda

Assetbacked wrote: »

The numbers paint a different picture though, community transmission is dead. Tony even announced that the virus has been suppressed in the community earlier today. It's done, time to move on, get back to a form of normal with social distancing, better hygiene practices and whatever is advised but the main thing is to reopen the country as the public have shown their responsibility by suppressing the virus.

Tbh the comment was more about things in the North and South not being much different - with some people continuing to flout the restrictions

Afaik "community transmission" is not "dead". It is currently suppressed because of those restrictions. If people somehow think think the dangers are gone - and all the restrictions are lifted - I reckon we will pay the price with the rate of infection starting again to rise. We do know the restrictions will be lifted at some point. Though even Spain and France haven't decided to rescind their restrictions completely .

moonage

Of the 50 testing surveys that have been done so far—both PRC and serological—the median Infection Fatality Rate was 0.23% .

So, about the same as a bad flu strain.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/edit#gid=0

dalyboy

moonage wrote: »

Of the 50 testing surveys that have been done so far—both PRC and serological—the median Infection Fatality Rate was 0.23% .

So, about the same as a bad flu strain.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/edit#gid=0

Has Tony seen this or is he just not interested ?

marno21

moonage wrote: »

Of the 50 testing surveys that have been done so far—both PRC and serological—the median Infection Fatality Rate was 0.23% .

So, about the same as a bad flu strain.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1zC3kW1sMu0sjnT_vP1sh4zL0tF6fIHbA6fcG5RQdqSc/edit#gid=0

Thank you for posting this. Excellent resource.

The important takeaway from this though is that many lives were saved by limiting the number of hospitalisations because the rate of infection was reduced by the lockdown. It means we need to move towards targeted measures to reduce the number of severe cases to reduce the burden on the health system.

This virus isn't very deadly. The issue with this virus is the rate at which is races through populations, with the complications of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission. And the added caveat of long incubation periods.

What we now have to weigh up is protecting those who are at risk of severe doses of covid-19 versus societal and economic collapse. Ireland seems to be behind the curve in this regard however one day we will have to enter the real world. Ireland's current response seems to be completely driven by irrational fear and leaving decisions to medical experts without any attempt to provide balance from economic advisers.

keynes

lord quackinton wrote: »

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0507/1137125-coronavirus-analysis/

Time to open up people

The economy has some serious transitioning to do as entire sectors like retail, travel, entertainment and sport will have to adapt to a new environment. And the sooner this process starts, the better