Relaxation of restrictions Part II

dalyboy

marno21 wrote: »

Thank you for posting this. Excellent resource.

The important takeaway from this though is that many lives were saved by limiting the number of hospitalisations because the rate of infection was reduced by the lockdown. It means we need to move towards targeted measures to reduce the number of severe cases to reduce the burden on the health system.

This virus isn't very deadly. The issue with this virus is the rate at which is races through populations, with the complications of asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission. And the added caveat of long incubation periods

What we now have to weigh up is protecting those who are at risk of severe doses of covid-19 versus societal and economic collapse. Ireland seems to be behind the curve in this regard however one day we will have to enter the real world. Ireland's current response seems to be completely driven by irrational fear and leaving decisions to medical experts without any attempt to provide balance from economic advisers.

Totally agree. This irrational fear was/is on steroids from 2 factors .Faulty modelling at the offset and constant fear porn from the media of this country to a trusting citizenship. There is going to be something akin to post traumatic stress disorder bestowed to many citizens which may require even more delay in reigniting the economy proper.

Quantum Erasure

lord quackinton wrote: »

Time to open up people

Burn, Hollywood. Burn...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hZj9bi7YNmI

snowcat

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

This is woeful.

dalyboy wrote: »

Totally agree. This irrational fear was/is on steroids from 2 factors .Faulty modelling at the offset and constant fear porn from the media of this country to a trusting citizenship. There is going to be something akin to post traumatic stress disorder bestowed to many citizens which may require even more delay in reigniting the economy proper.

Its easier now with hindsight but maybe what should have been done is no lockdown. Ring fence the hospitals, care homes, elderly and at risk groups/areas and test everyone daily in those environments. All students could have been priority tested as well before big group exams.

(can you imagine the parties after the leaving cert with thousands of tested virus free students let loose... Big spike in std's)

CruelSummer

Goldengirl wrote: »

I don't know why this would be as I haven't seen that article nor read anything else that references this. Can you post the link to this article?

Here is a snapshot media coverage re banks and their ratings outlook put on negative watch. Yesterday it was AIB which is one of the biggest banks in the state - and Moody’s. SNP and Fitch have also issued a negative watch for Irish banks and there are other articles about that. AIB’s shares are falling more than other international banks...links to Irish Independent article I mentioned yesterday and also Irish times article re AIB. There is more out there too.
It might not feature on the news at the moment but am finding the news complete propaganda re how ‘great’ we’re doing, the leaving cert, and how it’s so important to still ‘stay home’ and stay afraid. No one is discussing the future or even questioning the current restrictions. They might drive to the Salthill Prom again on a sunny day and scold the ‘bold’ public for daring to go out and walk by the sea - disgraceful.

https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/aib-tumbles-a-further-10pc-as-investors-run-scared-of-irish-banks-39186505.html

https://www.google.ie/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/business/financial-services/moody-s-lowers-outlook-on-aib-over-possible-bad-loans-from-covid-19-1.4247815%3fmode=amp

uli84

For all I know - We’ve been lied to as citizens, I know that’s not the first time but that personally bothers me

CalamariFritti

On a political level the way we have done it - and to be fair every other country has gone that way - is the wrong way around.

It appears that the easing of restrictions is being scrutinised and requires justification. It should be the other way around. Every single week or day even of further lockdown should be scrutinised and should require strong justification.

And that's not coming from me having any ideas about the virus threat being overstated and us having overreacted. Thats just on a purely political level.

The way we as a people rolled over and gave all our civil liberties up voluntarily was understandable in one way but scary all the same. It became apparent how fragile our political structures really are. Within the space of a few days it seemed all political entities, all separation of power controls, everything we trot out all the time as our western values was meaningless leaving us at the mercy of some rather one-dimensional technocratic decision making process with no transparency and no accountability.

Scary stuff. Thank god we're living in a civilised country, but who's to say that not going to be used as a blueprint some time in the future now that people realise how easy this was.

We need to put procedures into place to make sure if this happens again we can react to it without suspending our political controls.

the kelt

gozunda wrote: »

Tbh the comment was more about things in the North and South not being much different - with some people continuing to flout the restrictions

Afaik "community transmission" is not "dead". It is currently suppressed because of those restrictions. If people somehow think think the dangers are gone - and all the restrictions are lifted - I reckon we will pay the price with the rate of infection starting again to rise. We do know the restrictions will be lifted at some point. Though even Spain and France haven't decided to rescind their restrictions completely .

So people are continuing to flout the restrictions apparently yet the restrictions are working!

Of course people will not obey fully restrictions, it’s human nature but the fact of the matter is where we are with numbers at the moment is because of the situation in our care home settings as for example the breakdown of the last 2 days. There was an article about mismanagement in regards to nursing homes in the independent online apparently from a HSE whistleblower which is now with Simon Harris according to the report, it’s behind a paywall so don’t have the details.

There seems to be an rather unbecoming trait in people which has come to the fore through all this time of emergency to round on their fellow citizens for fault as the first line of thought as to where the fault lies despite the fact all the indicators are the people have bought into this and the usual 1% hasnt whilst absolving they powers that be of any fault.

uli84

CalamariFritti wrote: »

It appears that the easing of restrictions is being scrutinised and requires justification. It should be the other way around. Every single week or day even of further lockdown should be scrutinised and should require strong justification.

The way we as a people rolled over and gave all our civil liberties up voluntarily was understandable in one way but scary all the same. It became apparent how fragile our political structures really are. Within the space of a few days it seemed all political entities, all separation of power controls, everything we trot out all the time as our western values was meaningless leaving us at the mercy of some rather one-dimensional technocratic decision making process with no transparency and no accountability.

Spot on, I can’t believe there are people happy with that and prolonged (and unnecessary) lockdown. I’d likely die if I caught this virus but cannot simply put up with this nonsense.

I’m back at work since yesterday so I was on the M1 . Couldn’t believe how many cars were on it compared to 2 weeks ago when I had to work (for 2 days).
It’s really busy again and cars pulling and out of Applegreen etc.

I’m pleasantly surprised to see how many businesses have obviously gone ahead in their own way and opened up again, it means less of a threat to the economy as they’re in a good place when measure lift further.

It’s obvious that there is a movement happening now, people are quietly doing what they need to do to live their lives , there are no checkpoints. The Government need to make this a bit more official as it IS happening despite their guidelines. And it IS happening is a responsible and socially distanced way. People at this stage know what to do.

Our numbers are so low now that people are looking on this as extremely positive. Restrictions need to be lifted. Hospitals need to open up for all other conditions, all tests and screenings......... a lot of illnesses are FAR more dangerous and fatal than Covid 19.

snowcat

Deleted User wrote: »

I’m back at work since yesterday so I was on the M1 . Couldn’t believe how many cars were on it compared to 2 weeks ago when I had to work (for 2 days).
It’s really busy again and cars pulling and out of Applegreen etc.

I’m pleasantly surprised to see how many businesses have obviously gone ahead in their own way and opened up again, it means less of a threat to the economy as they’re in a good place when measure lift further.

It’s obvious that there is a movement happening now, people are quietly doing what they need to do to live their lives , there are no checkpoints. The Government need to make this a bit more official as it IS happening despite their guidelines. And it IS happening is a responsible and socially distanced way. People at this stage know what to do.

Our numbers are so low now that people are looking on this as extremely positive. Restrictions need to be lifted. Hospitals need to open up for all other conditions, all tests and screenings......... a lot of illnesses are FAR more dangerous and fatal than Covid 19.

I agree, i have a business that can operate safely and should have been allowed to reopen on the 5th. Ill see the figures up to Sunday and open on Monday with precautions if the figures warrant it. They can jail me if they want.
I shut my business to flatten a curve. The curve is flattened and they have moved the goalposts too many times.

_Kaiser_

JP100 wrote: »

You're welcome. Now off you go to the LC thread if you want to discuss the LC. That's the whole point of the LC thread, so that folk would discuss the LC there and not derail other threads with pages and pages of discussions on the LC.

You should probably report his post if you have a problem with it and let the Mods make a call on it. Not for you or I to decide what's "worthy"

the kelt

I dont see anything wrong with a bit of discussion in regards to the Leaving Cert on here.

Its another huge part of Irish Society that is being affected by restrictions when it seems once again little thought has gone into it apart from just cancel it and get it out of the way which seems to be the modus operandi of the power that be when its come to this pandemic.

I mean theres separate threads on Sweden, pubs, American Response, Economy and Travel etc and they all get regularly brought up in this thread.

JP100

the kelt wrote: »

I dont see anything wrong with a bit of discussion in regards to the Leaving Cert on here.

Its another huge part of Irish Society that is being affected by restrictions when it seems once again little thought has gone into it apart from just cancel it and get it out of the way which seems to be the modus operandi of the power that be when its come to this pandemic.

I mean theres separate threads on Sweden, pubs, American Response, Economy and Travel etc and they all get regularly brought up in this thread.

1. This is exactly why there's a LC thread as this thread has now been derailed for the last couple of pages with folk wanting to talk about the LC.

2. If you're serious about discussing the LC, you would discuss it on the actual LC thread with LC students, parents and teachers.

gp1990

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Leaving cert being cancelled is well within discussion here imo.

By cancelling the exams which are due to be held in over 80 days time is effectively extending an unnecessary lockdown/restriction.

When is the realisation going to sink in that we have to go back to living and the sooner the better the scaremongering stops the better.

By going ahead and calling the exams off is going to just keep the fear going.

It’s totally crazy to be even considering calling them off and just shows those in charge are unnecessarily in fear too.

If they're already canceling an event where it could scarcely be easier to implement social distancing that was re-scheduled for the end of JULY, Its fair to say we won't be seeing schools back or offices opening at any level for a long time to come. Yet some other European countries can have schools and offices re-opening already?

Even Leo himself acknowledged that Ireland's measures were more conservative than other European countries. Yesterday we had the most positive numbers since March yet again we're hearing from the CMO, "not where we want to be" (what's that zero cases? not going to happen) and about having to have a large review next Thursday about whether phase 1 can even be implemented. The reproductive rate is at about 0.5 yet they're STILL coy about lifting minimal restrictions that will benefit an absolutely tiny proportion of the population? Good luuuuck to any offices opening to a large scale in 2020 at this stage

It is scary to think about the unemployment levels we're going to see in this country for the coming years. Public health advice will always be to lockdown completely but at what stage do the government actually come out and even somewhat prioritise getting the economy up and running again. The roadmap looks completely fanciful and probably more of a box ticking exercise at this stage

Several ministers were said to be very animated in their assessment of the CMO having the level of power that he has, and the majority of them had reservations about extending the lockdown for so long and to such an extent, yet here we are with this level of restrictions for the vast majority for at least another month (I'd be fairly sure June 8th will not happen either)

Beasty

Leaving Cert discussion is in another thread, not this one

Any questions, PM me - do not respond to this post in-thread

the kelt

gp1990 wrote: »

If they're already canceling an event where it could scarcely be easier to implement social distancing that was re-scheduled for the end of JULY, Its fair to say we won't be seeing schools back or offices opening at any level for a long time to come. Yet some other European countries can have schools and offices re-opening already?

Even Leo himself acknowledged that Ireland's measures were more conservative than other European countries. Yesterday we had the most positive numbers since March yet again we're hearing from the CMO, "not where we want to be" (what's that zero cases? not going to happen) and about having to have a large review next Thursday about whether phase 1 can even be implemented. The reproductive rate is at about 0.5 yet they're STILL coy about lifting minimal restrictions that will benefit an absolutely tiny proportion of the population? Good luuuuck to any offices opening to a large scale in 2020 at this stage

It is scary to think about the unemployment levels we're going to see in this country for the coming years. Public health advice will always be to lockdown completely but at what stage do the government actually come out and even somewhat prioritise getting the economy up and running again. The roadmap looks completely fanciful and probably more of a box ticking exercise at this stage

Several ministers were said to be very animated in their assessment of the CMO having the level of power that he has, and the majority of them had reservations about extending the lockdown for so long and to such an extent, yet here we are with this level of restrictions for the vast majority for at least another month (I'd be fairly sure June 8th will not happen either)

This is the thing.

No one seems to know where we need to be.

Anyone?

What numbers need to be where?

gozunda

the kelt wrote: »

So people are continuing to flout the restrictions apparently yet the restrictions are working!

Of course people will not obey fully restrictions, it’s human nature but the fact of the matter is where we are with numbers at the moment is because of the situation in our care home settings as for example the breakdown of the last 2 days. There was an article about mismanagement in regards to nursing homes in the independent online apparently from a HSE whistleblower which is now with Simon Harris according to the report, it’s behind a paywall so don’t have the details.

There seems to be an rather unbecoming trait in people which has come to the fore through all this time of emergency to round on their fellow citizens for fault as the first line of thought as to where the fault lies despite the fact all the indicators are the people have bought into this and the usual 1% hasnt whilst absolving they powers that be of any fault.

I'd say it's more that there will be a very small number of eejits who somehow believe they know better than everyone else including the experts.

Thankfully the same despite the amount of bluster dont have a critical mass and the efforts of the majority of people in helping in reducing the infection rate which has laregley succeeded. We need to mind that. And if we can do the same with the numbers of infected and get that to below the figure when the restrictions first came in - we will be going in the right direction..

What we have is not perfect. But we are getting the rate of infection down. Care homes because of the nature of these settings were unfortunately always going to be the weak link in the chain of infection. Many other counties have also experienced this sadly. And dont forget the usual sabre rattling and political shenanigans from those looking to make hay from themselves by screaming that absolutely nothing is as how they would do it. And that is not to dismiss genuine criticism btw. Captain Hindsight is always a cushy job imo.

Pitch n Putt

the kelt wrote: »

This is the thing.

No one seems to know where we need to be.

Anyone?

What numbers need to be where?

Nobody can know when even the great Dr Tony doesn’t know himself.

We’re probably gone well beyond what’s needed to control the virus numbers wise but the delay on lifting restrictions is for different reasons

Most likely the tracing system is not up to standard just yet so Tony and Leo will just keep buying time by saying the numbers aren’t where we want them yet.

They are executing a dangerous and destructive plan for the country’s future if this is the reason.

Just to be clear to all and I know yesterday is only one day but 22 yes 22 cases of community transmission

You would fit that many people easily on a minibus !!!!

We should be organising emergency opening up plan meetings if these numbers continue and not dragging out these ridiculous restrictions for three more months.

gp1990

the kelt wrote: »

This is the thing.

No one seems to know where we need to be.

Anyone?

What numbers need to be where?

Goodness knows - getting a reproductive rate below 1, ICU patients below 100, and 'flattening the curve' had all been mentioned - all of which have happened by now and comfortably so

If they're still tentative about allowing outdoor business where social distancing couldn't be easier, its going to be a long road ahead

the kelt

gozunda wrote: »

I'd say it's more that there will be a very small numbet of eejits who somehow believe they know better than everyone else including the experts.

Thankfully the same despite the amount of bluster dont have a critical mass and the efforts of the majority of people in helping in reducing the infection rate has succeeded.

What we have is not perfect. But we are getting the rate of infection down. Care homes because of the nature of these settings were unfortunately always going to be the weak link in the chain of infection. Many other counties have also experienced this sadly. And dont forget the usual sabre rattling and political shenanigans from those looking to make hay from themselves by screaming that absolutely nothing is as how they would do it. And that is not to dismiss genuine criticism btw. Captain Hindsight is always a cushy job imo.

Fair enough, there has however been an over emphasis on the 1% who will never obey restrictions and worse have been allowed get away with it.

We have a cohort of posters who seem content to belittle and attack their fellow citizens yet never recognize the other failings in regards to testing capacity, rate of turnaround from tests, etc etc because their fellow citizen is an easier target to wind up and this cohort has been emboldened by the actions of the taoiseach in the past in threatening Joe Public (not saying you are in this cohort btw)

Other countries also had issues with Nursing Homes etc yet it seems those issues have not had the effect of hindering their easing of restrictions as it seems to have done here so it irks me to see the ordinary citizen being blamed for restrictions etc when thats plainly not the place with the community transmission being supressed.

The people have been exemplary for the most part, 99% have been and it isnt the fault of the people that we are where we are with current restrictions.

But nonetheless we are where we are and have a way to go, restrictions are part and parcel of life now, our approach looks overly conservative compared to every other country but as to whether thats right or wrong only time will tell.

bloodless_coup

Still 10 more days before hardwares can open. What a farce this lockdown is.

_Kaiser_

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Nobody can know when even the great Dr Tony doesn’t know himself.

We’re probably gone well beyond what’s needed to control the virus numbers wise but the delay on lifting restrictions is for different reasons

Most likely the tracing system is not up to standard just yet so Tony and Leo will just keep buying time by saying the numbers aren’t where we want them yet.

They are executing a dangerous and destructive plan for the country’s future if this is the reason.

This is what happens when you have a weak, vain, politician who is more concerned with his Twitter account and selfies with celebs and important people, than actually leading the country and looking after the people in it.

The guy has never been anything beyond spin and soundbites. Look at his performances as a minister in Enda's government. Lots to say about other people's departments - did very little in his own.

No surprise then that he's effectively handed over policy control to Tony and the HSE and making speeches quoting movies.

As I've said soo many times before... this is why FG are never elected except as a protest vote. Because they prove to be even worse than FF in the long run.

Pitch n Putt

bloodless_coup wrote: »

Still 10 more days before hardwares can open. What a farce this lockdown is.

Don’t forget as next week starts we have to listen to Taoiseach Tony tell us probably until Thursday

And I quote “if restrictions were to be lifted today the numbers aren’t where we need to be “

All the while RO will be 0.5 hospital admission is well down , numbers in ICU well down and community transmission practically zero

The only numbers that will be increasing is National debt and unemployment figures.

Multipass

snowcat wrote: »

I agree, i have a business that can operate safely and should have been allowed to reopen on the 5th. Ill see the figures up to Sunday and open on Monday with precautions if the figures warrant it. They can jail me if they want.
I shut my business to flatten a curve. The curve is flattened and they have moved the goalposts too many times.

Good luck, and I hope that others follow suit. I intend to go out and about, and support local businesses.

Ginger n Lemon

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

This is what happens when you have a weak, vain, politician who is more concerned with his Twitter account and selfies with celebs and important people, than actually leading the country and looking after the people in it.

The guy has never been anything beyond spin and soundbites. Look at his performances as a minister in Enda's government. Lots to say about other people's departments - did very little in his own.

No surprise then that he's effectively handed over policy control to Tony and the HSE and making speeches quoting movies.

As I've said soo many times before... this is why FG are never elected except as a protest vote. Because they prove to be even worse than FF in the long run.

Leo blatantly quoted Churchill about never so much has been owed by so many to so few.

Anyone with any sort of education would see a weak fake politician straight away.

Cant believe its 10 days before we can open up woodies or B&Q etc as above poster pointed out. Those places are like 10 000 + SQ M..... you can social distance a concert attendance in there.

statto25

bloodless_coup wrote: »

Still 10 more days before hardwares can open. What a farce this lockdown is.

Give your local hardware shop a call, I wouldn't be surprised to get an answer and a time to call in.

gozunda

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I’m back at work since yesterday so I was on the M1 . Couldn’t believe how many cars were on it compared to 2 weeks ago when I had to work (for 2 days).It’s really busy again and cars pulling and out of Applegreen etc.

I’m pleasantly surprised to see how many businesses have obviously gone ahead in their own way and opened up again, it means less of a threat to the economy as they’re in a good place when measure lift further.

It’s obvious that there is a movement happening now, people are quietly doing what they need to do to live their lives , there are no checkpoints. The Government need to make this a bit more official as it IS happening despite their guidelines. And it IS happening is a responsible and socially distanced way. People at this stage know what to do.

Our numbers are so low now that people are looking on this as extremely positive. Restrictions need to be lifted. Hospitals need to open up for all other conditions, all tests and screenings......... a lot of illnesses are FAR more dangerous and fatal than Covid 19.

I dont believe they do imho.

You mention the M1 and increased traffic volumes. Now I dont know if you are in the greater Dublin area or not. But I find much of that to be very concerning tbh. As of the 7th of May Dublin Dublin still has the highest number of cases of Covid-19, with 10,734, or 49 per cent of the countrywide total. On the same date Community transmission was at 62%. Overall only our rate of infection has been lowered.- There are still large numbers of new cases..

And where people start ignoring restrictions in larger numbers and are using hubs like Applegreen etc then that community transmission and number of cases is just going to continue to increase. The numbers of young people getting Covid is also up and by extension the risk of passing the disease into those belonging to vulnerable groups. And that includes both young and older people.

Whilst i agree that a number of indicators are going in the right direction - I also agree with Dr Holohan said there is a “persistent level of infections coming from the community, if I’m honest about it, particularly from younger people in the community”. And no Im not a FG supporter.

We need to stop believing we are somehow invincible in this country and risk ending up like Italy which saw carnage in its hospitals.

Captain_Crash

statto25 wrote: »

Give your local hardware shop a call, I wouldn't be surprised to get an answer and a time to call in.

There's a few near me open for business. In fact, in the village I'm in (South Dublin), nearly every business is now open, including two pubs for home delivery and collection. The funny thing is... most never shut.

uli84

Well B&Q is opened in the UK

growleaves

snowcat wrote: »

I agree, i have a business that can operate safely and should have been allowed to reopen on the 5th. Ill see the figures up to Sunday and open on Monday with precautions if the figures warrant it. They can jail me if they want.
I shut my business to flatten a curve. The curve is flattened and they have moved the goalposts too many times.

You could put out a few buns and call yourself a food business.

This is a form of deniable dishonesty so you may not want to do it for moral reasons. However deniable dishonesty around mortality rates, age cohorts, possible immunity and ultra-deadly second waves has us where we are are today.