Relaxation of restrictions Part II

uli84

gozunda wrote: »

I dont believe they do imho.

You mention the M1 and increased traffic volumes. Now I dont know if you are in the greater Dublin area or not. But I find much of that to be very concerning tbh. As of the 7th of May Dublin Dublin still has the highest number of cases of Covid-19, with 10,734, or 49 per cent of the countrywide total. On the same date Community transmission was at 62%. Overall only our rate of infection has been lowered.- There are still large numbers of people of new cases..

And where people start ignoring restrictions in larger numbers and are using hubs like Applegreen etc then that community transmission and number of cases is just going to continue to increase. The numbers of young people getting Covid is also up and by extension the risk of passing the disease into those belonging to vulnerable groups. And that includes both young and older people.

Whilst i agree that a number of indicators are going in the right direction - I also agree with Dr Holohan said there is a “persistent level of infections coming from the community, if I’m honest about it, particularly from younger people in the community”. And no Im not a FG supporter.

We need to stop believing we are somehow invincible in this country and risk ending up like Italy which saw carnage in its hospitals.

That’s nothing else but a sign that the lockdown doesn’t work as it’s supposed to and something should be done about it. Either tighten it or be done with it.

Shelga

SusieBlue wrote: »

Treatment is being delayed because of lack of screening though, that’s the problem.
I can only speak for the Cervical Check/Colposcopy clinics as I am a long term patient there, I have colposcopies performed every 4-6 months to ensure my precancerous cells haven’t mutated into cancerous ones. My appointments have been cancelled until further notice.
Before any naysayers accuse me of lying, I have posted about this here for a number of years.

I have had this happen to me- important colposcopy follow-up appointment cancelled, with no indication of when it will be rescheduled.

Sure it's only a bit of pre-cancer.

_Kaiser_

gozunda wrote: »

We need to stop believing we are somehow invincible in this country and risk ending up like Italy which saw carnage in its hospitals.

I disagree - I think we need to stop living in fear of a virus that thankfully will not do any lasting harm to the vast vast majority of people, while taking the sensible steps needed to protect those who actually ARE at greater risk.

I understand that some people are genuinely afraid of this thing, not helped by the media reporting and constant coverage, coupled with the vague "stats" given every day - but life can, will and indeed MUST go on regardless.

The longer "we" persist with this flawed notion that we can "defeat" this virus by hiding indoors for months, the more damage and harm we will do to not just the economy and personal livelihoods and finances, but people's long term well-being as well.

is_that_so

Pitch n Putt wrote: »

Nobody can know when even the great Dr Tony doesn’t know himself.

We’re probably gone well beyond what’s needed to control the virus numbers wise but the delay on lifting restrictions is for different reasons

Most likely the tracing system is not up to standard just yet so Tony and Leo will just keep buying time by saying the numbers aren’t where we want them yet.

They are executing a dangerous and destructive plan for the country’s future if this is the reason.

Just to be clear to all and I know yesterday is only one day but 22 yes 22 cases of community transmission

You would fit that many people easily on a minibus !!!!

We should be organising emergency opening up plan meetings if these numbers continue and not dragging out these ridiculous restrictions for three more months.

New disease, new rules and it's a huge learning process all round. Some of what we've done has been good but some you might regard as overcautious. It all fits into the soundbytes - "be fast, don't wait to be right" and "better to be accused of overreacting than of not having done enough". 14 days is the standard review period of the disease and any measures so you are only going to see decisions on that timescale.

As for testing, Ronan Glynn did say there were IT issues around the contact tracing but they are being addressed. Come the end of May we may even have a world class testing system!

I don't know about the timeline of the roadmap but it does seem that if industries can make the case for earlier opening and present a credible approach they may get their wish. All of it contingent, of course, on what's going with cases etc.

lorcand1990

statto25 wrote: »

Give your local hardware shop a call, I wouldn't be surprised to get an answer and a time to call in.

That's what our local hardware shop is doing. You ring in an order, give them a pick up time & they leave the order at the door of the shop for you to collect

gozunda

the kelt wrote: »

Fair enough, there has however been an over emphasis on the 1% who will never obey restrictions and worse have been allowed get away with it.

We have a cohort of posters who seem content to belittle and attack their fellow citizens yet never recognize the other failings in regards to testing capacity, rate of turnaround from tests, etc etc because their fellow citizen is an easier target to wind up and this cohort has been emboldened by the actions of the taoiseach in the past in threatening Joe Public (not saying you are in this cohort btw)

Other countries also had issues with Nursing Homes etc yet it seems those issues have not had the effect of hindering their easing of restrictions as it seems to have done here so it irks me to see the ordinary citizen being blamed for restrictions etc when thats plainly not the place with the community transmission being supressed.

The people have been exemplary for the most part, 99% have been and it isnt the fault of the people that we are where we are with current restrictions.

But nonetheless we are where we are and have a way to go, restrictions are part and parcel of life now, our approach looks overly conservative compared to every other country but as to whether thats right or wrong only time will tell.

I'd agree with your conclusions btw. But I really dont see this belittling and attacking of fellow citizens. Yes there are those who are a small number refusing to play with the rest of us and that has been pointed out by the press etc. But up to this those individuals as I said dont have critical mass. And things are far from perfect- a lot more could have been done early on which would have greatly reduced the rate of infection and kept that down imho.

The main reason I believe that we are still have our restrictions in place is that our direction for people to stay at home is 6 weeks old. Other countries have had up to 2 months of that and on the face if it - much more draconian restrictions by comparison. And the restrictions will be rolled back like other countries have started doing. But maybe not just as fast as some would like.

is_that_so

lorcand1990 wrote: »

That's what our local hardware shop is doing. You ring in an order, give them a pick up time & they leave the order at the door of the shop for you to collect

I think we will see a whole lot more of this after May 18, no bad thing all round IMO, especially in areas that are liested in much later phases.

_Kaiser_

gozunda wrote: »

I'd agree with your conclusions btw. But I really dont see this belittling and attacking of fellow citizens. Yes there are those who are a small number refusing to play with the rest of us and that has been pointed out by the press etc. But up to this those individuals as I said dont have critical mass. And things are far from perfect- a lot more could have been done early on which would have greatly reduced the rate of infection and kept that down imho.

The main reason I believe that we are still have our restrictions in place is that our direction for people to stay at home is 6 weeks old. Other countries have had up to 2 months of that and on the face if it - much more draconian restrictions by comparison. And the restrictions will be rolled back like other countries have started doing. But maybe not just as fast as some would like.

Other countries were far more impacted by this virus - partly as a result of their initial responses, or lack thereof.

Yes the measures taken here initially have definitely helped, but they were never intended to go on as long as they have. The purpose was to get everyone's attention. allow the health service time to respond, and reduce the spread to manageable levels (not eliminate it entirely). All of these objectives have been achieved.

And the bottom lie is that, as harsh as it may sound to those who are affected, we don't have the numbers to justify keeping the entire country locked in for as long as we have already, never mind as long as is still proposed.

We cannot continue to prioritise the needs of the few (who can be better supported separately anyway) over the needs of the vast majority.

gozunda

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I disagree - I think we need to stop living in fear of a virus that thankfully will not do any lasting harm to the vast vast majority of people, while taking the sensible steps needed to protect those who actually ARE at greater risk.

I understand that some people are genuinely afraid of this thing, not helped by the media reporting and constant coverage, coupled with the vague "stats" given every day - but life can, will and indeed MUST go on regardless.

The longer "we" persist with this flawed notion that we can "defeat" this virus by hiding indoors for months, the more damage and harm we will do to not just the economy and personal livelihoods and finances, but people's long term well-being as well.

To be fair the current issues have little or nothing to do with your take on 'fear'. Its everything to do with being pragmatic and developing our on response from other countries experiences. And no it is not inconceivable that we could end up still with our hospitals been overrun and the death rate increasing again.

But more importantly I dont really dont see that anyone is under the impression we can 'defeat' the virus. What we can do like China is to put it back in its box and keep sitting on the lid to ensure that it doesnt get a second chance. And yes that includes a phased lifting of our restrictions as elsewhere.

the kelt

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I disagree - I think we need to stop living in fear of a virus that thankfully will not do any lasting harm to the vast vast majority of people, while taking the sensible steps needed to protect those who actually ARE at greater risk.

I understand that some people are genuinely afraid of this thing, not helped by the media reporting and constant coverage, coupled with the vague "stats" given every day - but life can, will and indeed MUST go on regardless.

The longer "we" persist with this flawed notion that we can "defeat" this virus by hiding indoors for months, the more damage and harm we will do to not just the economy and personal livelihoods and finances, but people's long term well-being as well.

Yeah i have to say thats my outlook.

It seems other countries are looking forward to how life can be as normal as possible whilst realising we have to live with this virus. Its an acceptance of how things are, every other country wants to protect those at risk every bit as much as we do. But theyre choosing hope over fear.

We are still it seems locked in fear as to how bad things could get, its not even a realisation that we could be like Italy was at its worse its a belief that we WILL DEFINITELY be like Italy at its worse and focussing on that rather than the opposite.

Fear has taken over.

skallywag

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Cant believe its 10 days before we can open up woodies or B&Q etc as above poster pointed out.

I really feel your pain Ginger, I have a shed half finished in the garden which I am itching to get done.

It is like counting down the days until Santa comes, is it not?

What project have you on yourself?

ChikiChiki

I've no problem with business's beginning to open at this point with STRICT adherence to the guidelines and best practice.

We as a people have a collective responsibility here and be fully compliant with the guidelines set out we want life to get back to somewhat normal.

It will not be and should not be the same as before the restrictions came into effect. If things go back to even 80% of normal I would support imposing restrictions again by the Government.

_Kaiser_

gozunda wrote: »

To be fair the current issues have little or nothing to do with your take on 'fear'. Its everything to do with being pragmatic and developing our on response from other countries experiences. And no it is not inconceivable that we could end up still with our hospitals been overrun and the death rate increasing again.

But more importantly I dont really dont see that anyone is under the impression we can 'defeat' the virus. What we can do like China is to put it back in its box and keep sitting on the lid to ensure that it doesnt get a second chance. And yes that includes a phased lifting of our restrictions as elsewhere.

The forecasted "second wave" may not happen if the news coming from other countries that have started reopening is true - or indeed this may already be the second wave if it was here earlier in the year/last year.

People will still die from this regardless unfortunately. There's no way to prevent it, but I'm not convinced that we'll see a sudden surge in deaths either. The word is out on this. People know what they need to do to be safe and the vast majority are doing it. Those who are at greatest risk have been advised to continue isolating. But ultimately, there will be some who ignore the advice and that will happen anyway and is on them.

But the virus is going nowhere either way. We can either adapt and not ruin the rest of our lives by trying to hide from it, or well.....

Breezin

Those supporting a slow lifting of the lockdown and who think 'it's simple' should take a long, hard look at this. It's about selective use of science.

https://youtu.be/kQrtd-WCjos

Ginger n Lemon

More SCIENTIFIC studies coming out. Not "opinions" of some posters here advocating turtle lifting of the lockdown


"Data on case numbers and deaths were taken from the daily published figures by the European Centre for Disease Control and dates of initiation of various control strategies from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation website and published sources. Our primary analyses were modelled in R using Bayesian generalised additive mixed models (GAMM). We found that closure of education facilities, prohibiting mass gatherings and closure of some non-essential businesses were associated with reduced incidence whereas stay at home orders, closure of all non-businesses and requiring the wearing of facemasks or coverings in public was not associated with any independent additional impact. Our results could help inform strategies for coming out of lockdown."

Cork Boy 53

lorcand1990 wrote: »

That's what our local hardware shop is doing. You ring in an order, give them a pick up time & they leave the order at the door of the shop for you to collect

Yes. At least one hardware store and also one garden centre in my local town have been doing this since the Easter weekend.

Snow Garden

The Roadmap was certainly needed and was welcomed but it is flawed and will cause more harm than good.

The reasons I think it is flawed are as follows;

(1) A Roadmap in a business context is never a firm commitment. It is aspirational at best. It is dependent on many variables.
(2) The government did not provide any metrics or variables to show the phase entry and exit gates.

On #2, I would have provide some level of KPIs or metrics and state that we can only start a specific phase if certain criteria are met
Examples only
- We will only start Phase 3 if the R0 is less than 0.5
- We will only start Phase 4 if the ICU numbers are <insert number>
- We will only start Phase 3 if the number of daily new cases is less than <insert number>
etc etc
Yes the government said they would reintroduce restrictions if there is 'a strong upsurge of infection' but people don't really believe that - we need numbers and targets to focus the mind.

Right now I think people consider the Roadmap a fait accompli and people are certainly taking liberties with the restrictions now more than ever.
I personally think some of these phases will not run to plan and be deferred as a result.

gozunda

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

The forecasted "second wave" may not happen if the news coming from other countries that have started reopening is true - or indeed this may already be the second wave if it was here earlier in the year/last year.

People will still die from this regardless unfortunately. There's no way to prevent it, but I'm not convinced that we'll see a sudden surge in deaths either. The word is out on this. People know what they need to do to be safe and the vast majority are doing it. Those who are at greatest risk have been advised to continue isolating. But ultimately, there will be some who ignore the advice and that will happen anyway and is on them.

But the virus is going nowhere either way. We can either adapt and not ruin the rest of our lives by trying to hide from it, or well.....

I didnt mention a second wave btw. A second chance refers to the current number of new cases bubbling away and potentially getting out of control. Getting that down and keeping that down is imperative.

Unfortunately I'm seeing a small but increased numbet of people who think the pandemic is nothing at all, or a big conspiracy or can be ignored. And yes I know the same have limited impact. But they are vocal enough to get attention. And it only takes the few People to ignore what they need to do to keep themselves and more importantly others safe for things to go pear shaped.

What we can do is get the numbers down and keep them down - this reduces the risk to everyone including the young, old, medical staff etc .

ixoy

ChikiChiki wrote: »

If things go back to even 80% of normal I would support imposing restrictions again by the Government.

Why would you support restrictions again if we get back to 80% of normal? Surely that's a good thing?

Ginger n Lemon

gozunda wrote: »

I didnt mention a second wave btw. A second chance refers to the current number of new cases bubbling away and potentially getting out of control. Getting that down and keeping that down is imperative.

Unfortunately I'm seeing a small but increased numbet of people who think the pandemic is nothing at all, or a big conspiracy or can be ignored. And yes I know the same have limited impact. But they are vocal enough to get attention. And it only takes the few People to ignore what they need to do to keep themselves and more importantly others safe for things to go pear shaped.

What we can do is get the numbers down and keep them down - this reduces the risk to everyone including the young, old, medical staff etc .

But the pandemic is truly nothing at all. It has 0.3% mortality. Flu has 0.1% mortality yet I never heard you bang the drums and predict death and destruction.

This is crazy stuff. Spanish flu had 2.7% mortality. Thats 9 times higher than covid. That is a pandemic.

WHO made a big mess of covid and will be gone in a matter of years, their credibility was gone the minute they said blocking travel from China was a bad idea.

gozunda

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

More SCIENTIFIC studies coming out. Not "opinions" of some posters here advocating turtle lifting of the lockdown

"Data on case numbers and deaths were taken from the daily published figures by the European Centre for Disease Control and dates of initiation of various control strategies from the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation website and published sources. Our primary analyses were modelled in R using Bayesian generalised additive mixed models (GAMM). We found that closure of education facilities, prohibiting mass gatherings and closure of some non-essential businesses were associated with reduced incidence whereas stay at home orders, closure of all non-businesses and requiring the wearing of facemasks or coverings in public was not associated with any independent additional impact. Our results could help inform strategies for coming out of lockdown."

No not "SCIENTIFIC" studies :eek:

Ok from that first list

Closing educational facilities - check

prohibiting mass gatherings - check

closure of non-essential businesses - check

From the second

stay at home orders - check but limited (ours has been less and less restrictive than many other EU country)

closure of all non-businesses - what's a 'non business"?

requiring the wearing of facemasks or coverings in public. Nope.

You must be proud we're doing do well ...

Though I suggest you could perhaps provide a link so that we make our own evaluation?

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

But the pandemic is truly nothing at all. It has 0.3% mortality. Flu has 0.1% mortality yet I never heard you bang the drums and predict death and destruction. This is crazy stuff. Spanish flu had 2.7% mortality. Thats 9 times higher than covid. That is a pandemic. WHO made a big mess of covid and will be gone in a matter of years, their credibility was gone the minute they said blocking travel from China was a bad idea.

Ah i see an expert statistician and a medical expert as well

News for you though - the current mortality of Covid is not known. Yes people die from different strains of flu each year. I believe I have discuused this elsewhere pre Covid. The mortality figures given for the influenza outbreak of 1918 has a huge variety of estimates. Who mentioned the WHO btw?

_Kaiser_

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

But the pandemic is truly nothing at all. It has 0.3% mortality. Flu has 0.1% mortality yet I never heard you bang the drums and predict death and destruction.

This is crazy stuff. Spanish flu had 2.7% mortality. Thats 9 times higher than covid. That is a pandemic.

WHO made a big mess of covid and will be gone in a matter of years, their credibility was gone the minute they said blocking travel from China was a bad idea.

It's more complicated that that I think in fairness... in the age of instant social media, misinformation (I detest the term "fake news" that Trump coined) and fear spreads rapidly not just locally but now globally. The WHO had to try and get ahead of that by showing that they were on top of events and dealing with it.

Of course, mistakes were made in terms of the scale and impact of the virus, but crisis management is often plagued by that - anyone who's managed a P1 incident in an IT role will attest to that - but where we are failing is not adapting our response as more information has become available.

It's that latter point that is key to how quickly we now recover from this crisis, and how severe the damage will be in the interim.

Cork Boy 53

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

But the pandemic is truly nothing at all. It has 0.3% mortality. Flu has 0.1% mortality yet I never heard you bang the drums and predict death and destruction.

This is crazy stuff. Spanish flu had 2.7% mortality. Thats 9 times higher than covid. That is a pandemic.

WHO made a big mess of covid and will be gone in a matter of years, their credibility was gone the minute they said blocking travel from China was a bad idea.

"A pandemic (from Greek πᾶν, pan, "all" and δῆμος, demos, "people") is an epidemic of disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of people."

You do know that the Spanish flu pandemic had by far the highest mortality rates during the later waves. Who is to say that the Covid virus will not follow the same pattern if it is allowed to spread unrestricted through the population? I don`t believe that the WHO will be going anywhere either.

Penfailed

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

This is crazy stuff. Spanish flu had 2.7% mortality. Thats 9 times higher than covid. That is a pandemic.

Mortality rates have nothing to do with whether or not something is a pandemic.

easypazz

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

But the pandemic is truly nothing at all. It has 0.3% mortality. Flu has 0.1% mortality yet I never heard you bang the drums and predict death and destruction.

This is crazy stuff. Spanish flu had 2.7% mortality. Thats 9 times higher than covid. That is a pandemic.

WHO made a big mess of covid and will be gone in a matter of years, their credibility was gone the minute they said blocking travel from China was a bad idea.

Its primarily affected nursing homes (these can be managed better with changed procedures)

Also the biggest driver of ICU admissions is chronic heart disease, these people were in trouble anyway, often due to lifestyle choices.

One thing is certain, there will be no second lockdown.

growleaves

You do know that the Spanish flu pandemic had by far the highest mortality rates during the later waves. Who is to say that the Covid virus will not follow the same pattern if it is allowed to spread unrestricted through the population?

You're holding a negative-lottery ticket. Because something happened in 1918, 'who is to say' that that exact same thing won't happen now.

'Who is to say' that Germany won't invade Belgium this year? That happened twice in the last century so its even more likely using lockdown-logic.

easypazz

Penfailed wrote: »

Mortality rates have nothing to do with whether or not something is a pandemic.

Get back to work you and stop dossing.;)

Ginger n Lemon

gozunda wrote: »

No not "SCIENTIFIC" studies :eek:

Ok from that first list

Closing educational facilities - check

prohibiting mass gatherings - check

closure of non-essential businesses - check

From the second

stay at home orders - check but limited (ours has been less and less restrictive than many other EU country)

closure of all non-businesses - what's a 'non business"?

requiring the wearing of facemasks or coverings in public. Nope.

You must be proud we're doing do well ...

Though I suggest you could perhaps provide a link so that we make our own evaluation?




Ah i see an expert statistician and a medical expert as well

News for you though - the current mortality of Covid is not known. Yes people die from different strains of flu each year. I believe I have discuused this elsewhere pre Covid. The mortality figures given for the influenza outbreak of 1918 has a huge variety of estimates. Who mentioned the WHO btw?

Lets get 1 thing right - i am not proud "we are doing well". I think we are at the bottom of the list in terms of how we dealt with the whole thing. I wouldnt be surprised if Albania did better than Ireland.

And you are correct, multiple virologists from numerous countries have conducted studies testing 10,000,000 + people and finding mortality rate of covid of 0.2-0.3%. Multiple statisticians are giving us numbers showing barely any if at all increase in deaths from covid.

You see when RTE tells you 1400 people have died having contracted covid19, they dont tell you that 80% of those had less than 3 months to live or maybe even less than 3 days to live. HSE lists cancer as an "underlying condition". Do i really need to say anything else?

PS deaths do not occur from Covid. They occur in conjunction with covid, do you really think medics treating a person who is dying are gonna say "ok, he had covid, he died". no. they ll check his lungs - he was a smoker, they ll check his heart - he had a heart disease etc etc. This is medicine 101. RTE just chooses to bang the covid drum to cover up for this governments horrendous response.

ixoy

I completely agree on the targets and that people might just see it as waiting now.. But have other countries provided similar targets for their own plans? And how are their citizens reacting - no particular reason to think Irish citizens would be slacker than German ones for example.

Beasty

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