Green Party wish list.

KyussB

Looks like a very high chance of it - if the coalition goes ahead.

KyussB

Very misleading Irish Times article today, which tries to state that the issue people have with this deal, that is leading to the label of austerity, is merely the issue of tax increases:
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/the-next-government-faces-tough-calls-but-do-not-call-it-austerity-1.4283510?mode=amp

The issue is budget balancing - and it occurring at a presently unknown stage in the business cycle, 2-2.5 years away - with present economic conditions, making it very likely that budget balancing at that time will lead to austerity.

Budget balancing makes zero economic sense. Government finances do not work like household finances. The balance of the budget, and if it balances at zero or even goes into a surplus, must be incidental to policies aimed at bringing the economy back to Full Output and Full Employment ASAP, and then using targeted spending cuts and taxation to deflate overheating sectors of the economy, keeping inflation in check (the perfect time to build a rainy day fund).

Budget balancing as a goal in itself is bad macroeconomics and must permanently die, it is the heart of what leads to austerity, and no party should ever go into government with that (the former or the latter) being a goal during their term.

Bass Reeves

KyussB wrote: »

Very misleading Irish Times article today, which tries to state that the issue people have with this deal, that is leading to the label of austerity, is merely the issue of tax increases:
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/the-next-government-faces-tough-calls-but-do-not-call-it-austerity-1.4283510?mode=amp

The issue is budget balancing - and it occurring at a presently unknown stage in the business cycle, 2-2.5 years away - with present economic conditions, making it very likely that budget balancing at that time will lead to austerity.

Budget balancing makes zero economic sense. Government finances do not work like household finances. The balance of the budget, and if it balances at zero or even goes into a surplus, must be incidental to policies aimed at bringing the economy back to Full Output and Full Employment ASAP, and then using targeted spending cuts and taxation to deflate overheating sectors of the economy, keeping inflation in check (the perfect time to build a rainy day fund).

Budget balancing as a goal in itself is bad macroeconomics and must permanently die, it is the heart of what leads to austerity, and no party should ever go into government with that (the former or the latter) being a goal during their term.

I see you are still posting rubbish about magic money

Beechwoodspark

Spoke with 3 good friends in the greens earlier.

1 says no way no way to the deal. The other 2 are unenthusiastic but resigned to the deal - “we will be a laughing stock and destroyed if we say no and cause another election”

KyussB

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I see you are still posting rubbish about magic money

You don't even seem to know what the term 'magic money' is supposed to mean.

It appears you think money is still backed by gold or some other commodity - and that that is where money comes from. Economic views that are a century out of date. You don't appear to know that we are in a fiat system, nor where money comes from in such a system.

combat14

Beechwoodspark wrote: »

Spoke with 3 good friends in the greens earlier.

1 says no way no way to the deal. The other 2 are unenthusiastic but resigned to the deal - “we will be a laughing stock and destroyed if we say no and cause another election”

they will be a laughing stock when go into govt and dont get to implement their green agenda

and they will be despised by rural Ireland if they manage to get their way with all the austerity green taxes they want to penalise struggling people, businesses and farmers with

KyussB

Another misleading Irish times article today:

...
In the medium-to-longer term, if it can maintain internal coherence and a sense of purpose – something that will require daily tending by its components – the new administration stands a reasonable chance of governing for a full term. Crucially, it will have a decent parliamentary majority. As long the external economic environment doesn’t implode and it maintains a reasonably level-headed fiscal policy – taking steps to reduce the deficit once the crisis has passed and economic growth returns – the government should enjoy the confidence of the bond market, and thus be able to continue borrowing to fund the deficit spending the country needs.
...

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/greens-next-move-will-have-a-long-lasting-effect-on-irish-politics-1.4283546?mode=amp

It is precisely that there is a high risk of economic conditions imploding, which makes agreeing to budget-balancing without respect to economic conditions so reckless, and such a great risk for austerity - as explained many times.

Furthermore, the Irish Times appears to support budget-balancing/austerity as soon as economic growth returns - which means strangling economic growth BEFORE Full Output and Full Employment returns - ensuring long-term unemployment (an unjustifiable and socially/personally destructive thing, to impose on generations that have already just gone through this) and that it takes far longer for our economy to fully recover (in addition to stifling green policies even in the first half of the governments term, if that approach was taken)...

The IT is also trying to paint a misleading narrative, that the Greens will be obliterated for NOT going into government in bad faith/circumstances - when history shows they will be oblitered FOR going into government in bad faith/circumstances, just like happened a decade+ ago.

Very disappointing (though I don't know if I should be surprised) to see the Irish Times defending austerity narratives, and being extremely misleading in trying to paint that as not being austerity.

Leonard Hofstadter

Sure we can borrow stupid amounts of money for a while but to do so continually is absolutely bonkers crazy unless we want to become a laughing stock like Greece or Italy. One would have hoped after the last economic shock, that people would have learned that what you borrow today must be paid off tomorrow, or else eventually we get into laughing stock/IMF territory.

It is utterly, utterly delusional to pretend otherwise. Thankfully, Donohoe and McGrath understand how the world works.

KyussB

Have you ever looked at historical Public Debt and Public Debt vs GDP of countries the world over? Debts are rolled-over forever, and Public Debt vs GDP is eroded through GDP growth. Surpluses are a rare thing.

As is said a lot: Government finances don't work like household finances.

Government bonds at near 0% interest are also an entirely different beast, compared to Government bonds at 2%, or even up to 6%.

The stats are all out there ready to view and easily accessible, with graphing tools etc., on many easily found websites - go look at them instead of parroting a destructive narrative.

Bass Reeves

KyussB wrote: »

You don't even seem to know what the term 'magic money' is supposed to mean.

It appears you think money is still backed by gold or some other commodity - and that that is where money comes from. Economic views that are a century out of date. You don't appear to know that we are in a fiat system, nor where money comes from in such a system.

I been here with you before, I know money is no longer tied to gold. However there is no inflation either. Yes we can borrow money at 0% +/- 0.5%. but I'd we over borrow interest will rise on our lending options and it can go from 0-10% in a short period of stupid borrowing. You can already see the reluctance by fiscally conservative countries to allow countries like Italy a free pass. We do not want austerity imposed again like it was in 2010. Been there done that it not where we want to go again

Shefwedfan

efanton wrote: »

Ireland needs a reliable gas supply for the next few decades.

The green have force the government to ban all oil and gas exploration in Irish waters.

They have also stopped the LNG (liquid Natural Gas) facility on the Shannon from being built.

THe Kinsale Gas field, or at least the part of it that we have already tapped will expire in the next decade
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kinsale_Head_gas_field



There are some smaller gas deposits connected to the Kinsale operation but these are unlikely to provide sufficient gas supplies for the next few decades.

So when those gas field dry up, with no LGN facility on the Shannon, and new new gasfields in Irish waters being opened up where do you thikn we are going to get all the gas we need. We will have only one option and that is to buy all our gas from the UK.


My point is quite simple. to stop BOTH the LNG facility and further exportation and drilling in Irish waters leaves us with absolutely nothing in a decades time. The country will still be using gas, but it will be more expensive gas, and all of it imported from the UK.
The Green policy will not stop people using gas because there is no alternative, at least not for a few decades.
If they killed just one of them then we probably could work our way through that, but to cancel both is in my opinion pure lunacy.
.
In a few decades time we might well be able to deal with no gas supplies once there are sufficient solar and wind farms in place. But solar strangely enough doesn't work during the night. Unless there is also some technology used to store massive amounts of electricity, and that has been put in place to supply part of the national grids needs at night, we are up the creek with out a paddle. The wind farms alone will not be sufficient for us to abandon gas, oil or coal for our heating needs for the next 15 to 20 years.

Like I have been saying the Green policies in of themselves are not bad, but only if the alternatives have been put in place first before the government starts taxing the bejesus out of everyone or deliberately cutting the supply of gas the country needs off before those alternative are put in place.

Do you see the problem now?

We have a reliable supply of gas for the next few years.


We dont need a big time bomb sitting in Kerry.

Geuze

KyussB wrote: »

This is the most important thing to know about green politics in general: You can't have true green politics, without consistent massive government spending - green politics is inherently incompatible with budget-balancing/austerity.

Higher Govt exp with higher taxes doesn't mean fiscal deficits must happen.

Edgware

Look, the Greens will roll up into power and slowly but surely fall into the trough. When you taste the goodies in the trough it causes a form of amnesia with the first casualty that area of the brain that handles political promises

Geuze

KyussB wrote: »

Budget balancing as a goal in itself is bad macroeconomics and must permanently die, it is the heart of what leads to austerity, and no party should ever go into government with that (the former or the latter) being a goal during their term.

The Germans have a "debt brake".

Simon Wren-Lewis isn't a fan.

https://voxeu.org/content/german-debt-brake-worst-fiscal-rule-ever

KyussB

Bass Reeves wrote: »

I been here with you before, I know money is no longer tied to gold. However there is no inflation either. Yes we can borrow money at 0% +/- 0.5%. but I'd we over borrow interest will rise on our lending options and it can go from 0-10% in a short period of stupid borrowing. You can already see the reluctance by fiscally conservative countries to allow countries like Italy a free pass. We do not want austerity imposed again like it was in 2010. Been there done that it not where we want to go again

You don't seem to know where it does come from, as you keep going on about 'magic money' - as if it requires a ridiculous burden to produce money in the first place...

Interest rates on bonds are indirectly tied to the ECB interest rate - which is not going above 0% anytime soon (hell, the ECB just extended the duration of their negative interest loans).

KyussB

Geuze wrote: »

Higher Govt exp with higher taxes doesn't mean fiscal deficits must happen.

If you want to maintain Full Output, Full Employment and hit the Inflation Target - then fiscal deficits must always happen, except when dampening down overheating sectors of the economy.

Green policies can not reduce emissions fast enough, without maximizing employment and gearing that towards green policies.

KyussB

KyussB wrote: »

If you want to maintain Full Output, Full Employment and hit the Inflation Target - then fiscal deficits must always happen, except when dampening down overheating sectors of the economy.

Green policies can not reduce emissions fast enough, without maximizing employment and gearing that towards green policies.

You think yourself the prophet showing us the way to make our way to heaven. Your fiscal economic policy depends upon France and Germany allowing the Euro printing presses and free money to continue. The German Courts have already in the last few weeks ruled that Germany can't be party to that sort of damaging monetary policy. The spigot is being turned off but you haven't been paying attention. Current Covid bailouts are exceptional. That sort policy won't be allowed in future.

KyussB

The only religious beliefs here are those of budget-balancing and austerity. Keynesian stimulus has been standard macroeconomics for most of a century. My views are simply modern macroeconomics.

The ECB's negative interest rates aren't going away anytime soon - and if they did, that would be the end of the Eurozone and the Euro.

Carry on. You're right, everyone else is wrong.

Johnny_BravoIII

The PFG includes a Green Wish list dating back to the 1980's and the formation of the Green Alliance in Irleand. The switch from a roads-based emphasis to a public transport-centric approach should be enough in itself for the Greens to form a government.

When did the Greens become a 'social justice' party? When did the mission statement of saving the planet get lost? Every card carrying GP member understands it's do or die time regarding the future of human survival. When did this simple mission statement get lost to be replaced by education, poverty, minority rights.... anti-period discrimination at other lower priority issues.

How can any card carrying Green not look at this document and see enough Green stuff in there to move forward with the only thing that should matter to a Green, saving the planet and survival of the species.

Water John

Quality of life issues are a natural extension to seeking to simply preserve human life on the planet. Green issues aren't, a one trick pony.

Geuze

KyussB wrote: »

If you want to maintain Full Output, Full Employment and hit the Inflation Target - then fiscal deficits must always happen, except when dampening down overheating sectors of the economy.

This seems to suggest that continued, persistent fiscal deficits are an inevitable feature of an economy at a long-run equilibrium?

I disagree with that statement.

Keynesian macro suggests the use of expansionary demand polices to get an economy back to normal, ok.

Run deficits during recessions, like now, and help boost demand.

But this statement suggests that persistent budget deficits are "normal"?

Or am I reading it incorrectly?

tayto lover

Water John wrote: »

Quality of life issues are a natural extension to seeking to simply preserve human life on the planet. Green issues aren't, a one trick pony.

Ah here.
They’re making it up as they go along.
I laughed out loud at Ryan telling an interviewer that 30 cars was enough for a village of 300 families. He said the cars could be left at a pick up point in the village for anyone to use. The Greens are a joke party.

Bass Reeves

KyussB wrote: »

You don't seem to know where it does come from, as you keep going on about 'magic money' - as if it requires a ridiculous burden to produce money in the first place...

Interest rates on bonds are indirectly tied to the ECB interest rate - which is not going above 0% anytime soon (hell, the ECB just extended the duration of their negative interest loans).

Everybody knows money comes out of an ATM just like milk comes from a plastic or carboard carton

PommieBast

efanton wrote: »

We will have only one option and that is to buy all our gas from the UK.

UK in turn is importing gas from Norway and Qatar, which makes it even crazier..

KyussB

Geuze wrote: »

This seems to suggest that continued, persistent fiscal deficits are an inevitable feature of an economy at a long-run equilibrium?

I disagree with that statement.

Keynesian macro suggests the use of expansionary demand polices to get an economy back to normal, ok.

Run deficits during recessions, like now, and help boost demand.

But this statement suggests that persistent budget deficits are "normal"?

Or am I reading it incorrectly?

No - if an economy is overheating, the budget is incidentally going to either balance or run into a surplus from time to time, if you want to keep inflation in check.

That's the main concern. I'm not saying to aim for the goal of persistent deficits - I'm saying the goal should be the three things I mention, maintaining Full Output, Full Employment, and hitting (but not exceeding) the Inflation Target.

I think that goal will lead to persistent deficits (except when dampening overheating sectors) - but there are exceptions where it won't, e.g. (looking at Sectoral Balances) if we are very competitive with trade, and the Foreign Sector is bringing in a lot of money, we may meet that goal and be able to run a surplus - or, we may be able to meet that goal, and instead of running up Public Debt with a deficit, we could run a surplus and shift the burden onto Private Debt instead (but high Private Debt levels are incredibly dangerous, threatening debt deflation, so that's not advisable) - we actually did the latter with Private Debt, in the years running up to 2007, and it made our banking crisis worse.

Water John

Bass Reeves wrote: »

Everybody knows money comes out of an ATM just like milk comes from a plastic or carboard carton

In a funny way it's a more miracolous thing. It's created by Central Banks out of nothing.

Johnny_BravoIII

Water John wrote: »

Quality of life issues are a natural extension to seeking to simply preserve human life on the planet. Green issues aren't, a one trick pony.

Yes, and as a national party they need policy in all areas. But, surely the mission hierachy is clear,

1. try to prevent human extinction through runaway climate change before 2050 2100
2. Everything else

Johnny_BravoIII

tayto lover wrote: »

Ah here.
They’re making it up as they go along.
I laughed out loud at Ryan telling an interviewer that 30 cars was enough for a village of 300 families. He said the cars could be left at a pick up point in the village for anyone to use. The Greens are a joke party.

We're a small island nation.
The idea is to organise society towards living in cities, towns and village communities so that we increase quality of life and reduce car dependence.
If your living within walking/bike ride of a super-fast train, will you own a car or choose to rent 1 for the 1 weekend in 4 when you use it? Gocar etc already offer this. This technology will get cheaper, quicker in the years to come.

Water John

Water John wrote: »

In a funny way it's a more miracolous thing. It's created by Central Banks out of nothing.

Which Central Bank? Not Ireland's