has covid 19 been blown out of all proportion?

cooperguy

sheepysheep wrote: »

I don't think anyone is saying that the Healthcare Service getting overwhelmed is anything other than a disaster.

From what I'm aware of, Sweden actually had less ICU capacity than Ireland.

If Ireland had used Swedish numbers and precautions, we should be in a relatively similar position without the lockdown, which in itself now presents a huge problem worldwide as countries attempt to extradite themselves from it's paralysis.

In terms, of deaths, the Professor was making the point that either way, the numbers will eventually be very similar.

There are unique factors in different parts of the world. We can only look back and see what worked best. What we do know is Sweden is doing worse than its neighbours and we are doing better than our neighbors, the UK, who brought in lockdown measures later.

If you're health system gets overwhelmed your deaths go up, thats why its being avoided...

CinemaGuy45

Kidchameleon wrote: »

Either that or the "predictions" were wrong

Yes it is one or the other people asking for prove either way is frustrating non of us can provide prove and we are in new territory.

I feel the predictions were wrong but there is no way I can ever prove it.

Crazy times we are living in.

CinemaGuy45

storker wrote: »

I think a lot of posters are happy to wave these away as acceptable economic collateral damage.

Not me what bugs me a bit is the lockdown does not seem to have helped in the case of nursing homes.

Poor nations have massive deaths rates from many things all the time a good economic situation is not something to be ashamed of.

Many people have had life extending treatments and operations this does not really happen in nations with bad underfunded public services.

Noting about this situation makes me happy if we had not gone for lockdown I can not be sure what situation we would be in right now.

sheepysheep

cooperguy wrote: »

There are unique factors in different parts of the world. We can only look back and see what worked best. What we do know is Sweden is doing worse than its neighbours and we are doing better than our neighbors, the UK, who brought in lockdown measures later.

If you're health system gets overwhelmed your deaths go up, thats why its being avoided...

Giesecke,addresses the UK in his analysis. Says that UK was on the correct path and had pretty much reached the peak when the Imperial report came out which caused the dramatic shift in course.

At this stage, Norway and Denmark may be doing better numbers wise, however, they now have to open up their economy and society again, and their numbers will begin to rise again after damage to their economy.

Giesecke isn't been heartless, just pointing out that all that the lockdown achieves in real terms is to prolong some life's for a few months longer, at a large cost, economic and otherwise to the rest of society.

I just think that he's right, and with similar measures taken here, our hospitals would not have been overrun, we'd be a few months further along towards where we need to be, and at a lesser cost to the economy.

twowheelsonly

A few things jump out on this thread.

Firstly the 'worst case' prediction of 85,000. We know now that might have been an overestimation but it was based on information at the time so allowance has to be made for that, even if that information wasn't accurate at the time. Strangely enough I was at a family party the week before that and one of my wife's cousins, a Professor in Maynooth, was telling all and sundry that 70,000 could die here if we didn't prepare for it and take all necessary steps.

IMO, the lockdown has had a significant effect in reducing/curtailing our numbers for the present which takes huge pressure off of Hospitals, Undertakers, Labs, Gardai and even the Army and Navy. The drop in the rate of infection/transmission is evidence of this.

Some people actually seem disappointed that we haven't had 20, 30, 40 or even 85,000 deaths so far. Nobody put a timescale alongside the predicted numbers - we've had a thousand thus far, that could very easily be 2 by this time next month, even with the current lockdown in place . Because we've 'only' had a thousand people seem to think that the lockdown was overstepping the mark and a waste of time. As far as I'm concerned it wasn't strict enough, and certainly isn't strict enough now.

Having said that.... I'd far prefer to see the Taiwanese model in use but I'm not sure that our society is designed for it. They were prepared due to the previous episode with SARS so stepped up immediately. Nothing too draconian, no general lockdown, but requires the full co-operation of citizens. $5,000 to $10,000 fines for breaking quarantine and isolation would fairly focus the mind though !!

Good reading here as to how they went about it. It's a model I'd like us to follow if something similar comes around again.

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/04/asia/taiwan-coronavirus-response-who-intl-hnk/index.html

Nice breakdown of their responses here:

https://cdn.jamanetwork.com/ama/content_public/journal/jama/0/jvp200035supp1_prod.pdf?Expires=2147483647&Signature=bIZCLS7ZLWTJd~U~H40JgiEGdFb3ggVUJpBvJ7KdANK7HgK1zaj4uWHvqweGym1nWfO~nXt9Y5i1vX79pF7zjjqfzmJAy3udTdpVVZQe07xnQIPcBMXLwZ5XjgTO8yKFXVIpxsXhrmOu8sGSpKiEmQ86ZCKfOTar7fMAGmUCtjiYVFwf31K3REWAA-r3hZyoZpqz3QKpVgpsRpF9fV9thQCq0~yvbvRKTH4PcoB~CZgmXH7rpVb6bILXQn5zBCphf6pyLAa4zIebUEKfCdCYdSdi9LeIEUsesqsYpNWgHJcr4K1LC0hFlst0RHQz-vZ7I-OvrX~5jel6zjjtuDQzjQ__&Key-Pair-Id=APKAIE5G5CRDK6RD3PGA

washman3

sheepysheep wrote: »

He's the director general of the WHO. I doubt he took his info from Boards. Ask him where he sourced his material, I don't know.

He made a direct comparison with deaths caused by the seasonal flu. I think any reasonable person would conclude that he was saying that 3.4 in every 100 who contacts the virus will die as compared to every 1 in a 100 for flu.

The final ratio will be slightly more or even slightly less than 1 : 100
Somewhere between 0.6 to 1.2 per hundred.

NIMAN

Not trying to prove the op right or wrong, but just read a couple of stories on the BBC website that I found interesting.

Dyson, yeah that vacuum company, who were one of many companies asked to try to engineer ventilators quickly, have said only a quarter of what they made were ever taken off them. And they have been told they don't need to be making any more.

And remember the nhs volunteers? People were asked to volunteer to help out for when the virus was to take hold. 750,000 signed up. But only 50,000 tasks have ever been done.

cooperguy

sheepysheep wrote: »

Giesecke,addresses the UK in his analysis. Says that UK was on the correct path and had pretty much reached the peak when the Imperial report came out which caused the dramatic shift in course.

At this stage, Norway and Denmark may be doing better numbers wise, however, they now have to open up their economy and society again, and their numbers will begin to rise again after damage to their economy.

Giesecke isn't been heartless, just pointing out that all that the lockdown achieves in real terms is to prolong some life's for a few months longer, at a large cost, economic and otherwise to the rest of society.

I just think that he's right, and with similar measures taken here, our hospitals would not have been overrun, we'd be a few months further along towards where we need to be, and at a lesser cost to the economy.

Our hospitals came close to maxing out bed capacity with all the controls in place. There was a very real chance we would have ended up like northern Italy, with many more dieing than needed to

Zetor19

Up til a few months ago everybody lived to 120 years old. At least that’s what some people must think going by the way this virus was blown up by the media.

Risteard81

cooperguy wrote: »

Our hospitals came close to maxing out bed capacity with all the controls in place. There was a very real chance we would have ended up like northern Italy, with many more dieing than needed to

Rubbish.

Plumbthedepths

cooperguy wrote: »

Our hospitals came close to maxing out bed capacity with all the controls in place. There was a very real chance we would have ended up like northern Italy, with many more dieing than needed to

Care to provide some evidence that our hospitals came close to maxing out?

hi5

An interesting paper written a few days ago covering this very subject.


https://sway.office.com/PwTN7GCvJWDgn9yd

Tell me how

hi5 wrote: »

An interesting paper written a few days ago covering this very subject.


https://sway.office.com/PwTN7GCvJWDgn9yd

It seems from just a cursory investigation on the author of this paper that they may have some form of agenda in terms of judging the Irish response to Covid-19.

First off, he is the Dr who quit last weekend citing the governments response to the virus in nursing homes.
Second, a twitter account which, while unverified but which can reasonably be expected to belong to the Dr (@indepdubnrth) (an email address given on the Twitter feed for the account owner matches the email address given as a contact in the paper referenced) has been calling out the traditionalist Irish political parties for at least several years, recently suggesting that Sinn Fein are the only hope that it is left for Irish politics and that the Dr himself ran as an Independent in a previous election.

Maybe he is correct, but also, (and more likely in my view) he is fighting a different cause than just the Covid-19 response and so I'm not sure if his position on it can be taken as unbiased.

He is medically qualified, but so too is Dr Holohan. 1-1 so in the score of over-reaction versus appropriate response so, with most other (in Ireland at least) medical experts coming in on the argument in support of the government response.

dockysher

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

First off I have followed all the restrictions and I am also and essential worker.

Nearly 1'000 people dead that is very sad and the situation in elderly and care homes is very bad not saying otherwise the very people who needed to be protected don't seem to have benefited from this lockdown.

I am still working away so I have my wages so this crisis has not cost me anything so I have not started this thread for selfish reasons I also have elderly folks so I do worry about them.


However under 1'000 dead we got warnings of upwards of 100'000 dead I think it is pretty safe to say that number now looks way over the top.


This lockdown has wreaked the economy and did we need to close schools?

At the start of all this I was going for people who said this only hits the old as every life counts.

Knowing what we know not MY OPINION is we should have totally locked down the care homes staff should have been isolated with the residents.

As for the rest of us the virus should have just been let run it's course.

The one group we said this was for have been totally let down.

This is a discussion forum I have offered my opinion and asked others to share their please do not attack me if you do not agree.:)

Edit remember this?

No

VinLieger

hi5 wrote: »

An interesting paper written a few days ago covering this very subject.


https://sway.office.com/PwTN7GCvJWDgn9yd

A quick google shows the author to have a very vocal anti government agenda.

Xertz

This is the problem with anything that grows exponentially. You can move from manageable real numbers to absolutely overwhelming numbers in a very short space of time.

All I would conclude is that our mitigation measures worked very well and people cooperated to achieve this.

Based on the information available and making no changes at all, it’s fairly clear that this situation would have been a catastrophe.

Boggles

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

Noting about this situation makes me happy if we had not gone for lockdown I can not be sure what situation we would be in right now.

Of course you can, the virus would have run rampant, emergency medical care would have failed, the deaths would be in multiples of 1000s as would hospitalizations and the economy would have collapsed.

We had our first Covid death only on March 11th, now we have over 1000, that is with the lockdown measures.

No one can be sure about exact figures, but what you can be sure of without proper mitigation the country would be in ruin right now.

Kidchameleon

Boggles wrote: »

Of course you can, the virus would have run rampant, emergency medical care would have failed, the deaths would be in multiples of 1000s as would hospitalizations and the economy would have collapsed.

We had our first Covid death only on March 11th, now we have over 1000, that is with the lockdown measures.

No one can be sure about exact figures, but what you can be sure of without proper mitigation the country would be in ruin right now.

How many of those deaths are from Covid-19? How many are deaths where the person happened to have Covid-19?

Boggles

Kidchameleon wrote: »

How many of those deaths are from Covid-19? How many are deaths where the person happened to have Covid-19?

I've no idea.

I do know none of them had any sort of proper funeral or were able to have family around them when they perished.

SeaBreezes

Kidchameleon wrote: »

How many of those deaths are from Covid-19? How many are deaths where the person happened to have Covid-19?

More to the point, how many strokes/heart attacks/seizures are NOT being reported as COVID19 deaths when they should be?


https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/health-news/a-mysterious-blood-clotting-complication-is-killing-coronavirus-patients/ar-BB1336g0?li=BBnb7Kz&fbclid=IwAR1cCisT0fx18h_kN8IsCkl3zHNfFBkim9yQOhb1XjzlQYpeidpF8DWG5EI


The man was among several recent stroke patients in their 30s to 40s who were all infected with the coronavirus. The median age for that type of severe stroke is 74.
As Oxley, an interventional neurologist, began the procedure to remove the clot, he observed something he had never seen before. On the monitors, the brain typically shows up as a tangle of black squiggles — “like a can of spaghetti,” he said — that provide a map of blood vessels. A clot shows up as a blank spot. As he used a needlelike device to pull out the clot, he saw new clots forming in real-time around it.


https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/24/strokes-coronavirus-young-patients/

cooperguy

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Care to provide some evidence that our hospitals came close to maxing out?

There is only ~120 free beds in the country This is after weeks of increasing capacity and social isolation. Without the delaying methods used (and the time that bought to get more capacity, PPE, staff training, etc.) it seems pretty likely the system would be overwhelmed.

hopalongcass

Boggles wrote: »

Of course you can, the virus would have run rampant, emergency medical care would have failed, the deaths would be in multiples of 1000s as would hospitalizations and the economy would have collapsed.

We had our first Covid death only on March 11th, now we have over 1000, that is with the lockdown measures.

No one can be sure about exact figures, but what you can be sure of without proper mitigation the country would be in ruin right now.

Most likely be the same,you will never be able to prove it saved a single life,quarantining healthy people is a first.As each day passes and more people get tested the death rate per infections keeps going down,has everyone just dismissed Iceland just to suit their own narrative.

One thing is certain when this blows over Sweden is gonna be the economic powerhouse of Europe,while our leaders are having the time of their lives in the bond market,literally an unelected leader spending us off a cliff and being cheered on while doing it,pure madness.

Posters on these forums call Americans stupid,we are well up there when it comes to stupid populations who don't seem to have any understanding of where this road is leading us.Economic devastation is almost guaranteed at this point,social unrest and chaos isn't as far out as people think.This madness has to stop,people would want to be dropping down dead all around us on the streets to warrant this,the numbers aren't ever going to get high enough to warrant whats going on.Life must continue we cannot all stop.

VinLieger

hopalongcass wrote: »

Most likely be the same,you will never be able to prove it saved a single life,quarantining healthy people is a first.As each day passes and more people get tested the death rate per infections keeps going down,has everyone just dismissed Iceland just to suit their own narrative.

One thing is certain when this blows over Sweden is gonna be the economic powerhouse of Europe,while our leaders are having the time of their lives in the bond market,literally an unelected leader spending us off a cliff and being cheered on while doing it,pure madness.

Posters on these forums call Americans stupid,we are well up there when it comes to stupid populations who don't seem to have any understanding of where this road is leading us.Economic devastation is almost guaranteed at this point,social unrest and chaos isn't as far out as people think.This madness has to stop,people would want to be dropping down dead all around us on the streets to warrant this,the numbers aren't ever going to get high enough to warrant whats going on.Life must continue we cannot all stop.

So your saying 1000 extra deaths is acceptable to keep things open?

hopalongcass

VinLieger wrote: »

So your saying 1000 extra deaths is acceptable to keep things open?

Absolutely i am,whatever the death rate is,we find a way to minimize it we spend more money on healthcare we volunteer if we have to,we do everything humanely possibly to save their lives while continuing to live,but reality is the death rate isn't anywhere near the point to warrant anything like this.

Thats how life works thats how its always worked,everyone dies at some point we all lose people in life.We do everything to save them while continuing to live,its the one sure thing that you could always rely on after a death in your family or anything bad happens is that life goes on the world keeps turning.You cannot stop everything like this and not expect dire consequences.

endacl

Terribly sorry you’ve been inconvenienced by all the trying to keep as many people alive as possible nonsense.

KaneToad

VinLieger wrote: »

So your saying 1000 extra deaths is acceptable to keep things open?

Too many people don't grasp the gravity of the situation. It can be due to many factors; ignorance, low intelligence, misplaced optimism, conspiracy theorists etc...

However, the science is irrefutable - specifically for the spread of the virus. It is highly contagious. We also have the roadmap of Italy/Spain to inform us of how things can go badly wrong with minimal action by the citizenry.

hopalongcass

endacl wrote: »

Terribly sorry you’ve been inconvenienced by all the trying to keep as many people alive as possible nonsense.

If you believe this is about trying to save lives you are naive or just shilling,we never cared about tens of thousands of lives lost by the bank bailouts,and the banks surely weren't throwing money at us for anything to do with the homeless crisis.

We were flat broke until Leo give his speech about Covid 19 and then suddenly our finances were in great order with lots of borrowing potential but " the bill was going to be enormous".Lets throw loads of our new found borrowings at the WHO,no conflict of interest with them considering what they are making out of all this,none at all.

hopalongcass

KaneToad wrote: »

Too many people don't grasp the gravity of the situation. It can be due to many factors; ignorance, low intelligence, misplaced optimism, conspiracy theorists etc...

However, the science is irrefutable - specifically for the spread of the virus. It is highly contagious. We also have the roadmap of Italy/Spain to inform us of how things can go badly wrong with minimal action by the citizenry.

Explain Iceland to me then Mr. High intelligence.

VinLieger

hopalongcass wrote: »

Explain Iceland to me then Mr. High intelligence.

You mean Iceland with less than 10 percent of our population, that has no land border with another country, is 100 miles by sea from any other port and doesnt have a major airport with easily 200+ flights landing a day.

That Iceland? What an idiotic comparison.

Youve basically done the same as asking about America and said "well explain how ireland has less deaths than we do."

take everything

hopalongcass wrote: »

If you believe this is about trying to save lives you are naive or just shilling,we never cared about tens of thousands of lives lost by the bank bailouts,and the banks surely weren't throwing money at us for anything to do with the homeless crisis.

We were flat broke until Leo give his speech about Covid 19 and then suddenly our finances were in great order with lots of borrowing potential but " the bill was going to be enormous".Lets throw loads of our new found borrowings at the WHO,no conflict of interest with them considering what they are making out of all this,none at all.

So what IS it about.
Genuine question.