has covid 19 been blown out of all proportion?

abff

sheepysheep wrote: »

You think the Swedes sat down together and said, "Our main Goal is to have a model that delivers more deaths than our neighbours?"

Denmark are better but not to the degree that an absence of total lockdown would suggest.

The main difference between Norway and Sweden is the Nursing homes, which are smaller in size in Norway, and so an outbreak is less catastrophic.

Have you actually looked at the latest figures? The death rate per million population is as follows:

Sweden 225
Denmark 74
Norway 38
Finland 35

So the death rate in Sweden is over 3 times that in Denmark, which you say is not better to a degree that would justify the lockdown?

And the death rate in Sweden is almost 6 times higher than Norway. Which you put down as being attributable to Norway having smaller nursing homes? Really?

I know you're against the lockdown, but comparing Sweden to its Scandinavian neighbours does not in any way, shape or form support your argument that lockdowns don't work.

Widdensushi

abff wrote: »

Have you actually looked at the latest figures? The death rate per million population is as follows:

Sweden 225
Denmark 74
Norway 38
Finland 35

So the death rate in Sweden is over 3 times that in Denmark, which you say is not better to a degree that would justify the lockdown?

And the death rate in Sweden is almost 6 times higher than Norway. Which you put down as being attributable to Norway having smaller nursing homes? Really?

I know you're against the lockdown, but comparing Sweden to its Scandinavian neighbours does not in any way, shape or form support your argument that lockdowns don't work.

Sweden has the same deaths per million of population as Ireland, they have a functioning economy, schools open, restaurants, bars etc open, we don't!!They will have a well funded Healthcare system for the foreseeable.

storker

sheepysheep wrote: »

Correlation does not equal causation.

That's just a throwaway line and not a real argument. There is much more evidence for social distancing having an effect on infection rates that just saying A happened then B happened so A caused B. That's a ridiculous oversimplification. You're putting "social distancing reduces infection rates" on the same level as "I forgot my umbrella and it rained, therefore it rained because I forgot my umbrella".

Medical premise: The virus is spread by close human contact.
Mathematical premise: Less instances of close human contact will slow the spread of the virus.
Logically sound conclusion: Social distancing will help reduce the spread of the virus.

Subsequent Observation: Infection rates have slowed.
Conclusion: Social distancing works.

What's your alternative interpretation?

cooperguy

Widdensushi wrote: »

Sweden has the same deaths per million of population as Ireland, they have a functioning economy, schools open, restaurants, bars etc open, we don't!!They will have a well funded Healthcare system for the foreseeable.

So imagine what it would be like here if we had a death rate 3 - 6 times our neighbours (which is what they have with their policy)...

storker

Danzy wrote: »

He is considered an almighty charlatan and bullshi7 artist though.

Somewhere in Italy, perhaps on boards.it someone is probably making a similar argument and posting a clip of Gemma O'Doherty as supporting evidence.

sheepysheep

abff wrote: »

Have you actually looked at the latest figures? The death rate per million population is as follows:

Sweden 225
Denmark 74
Norway 38
Finland 35

So the death rate in Sweden is over 3 times that in Denmark, which you say is not better to a degree that would justify the lockdown?

And the death rate in Sweden is almost 6 times higher than Norway. Which you put down as being attributable to Norway having smaller nursing homes? Really?

I know you're against the lockdown, but comparing Sweden to its Scandinavian neighbours does not in any way, shape or form support your argument that lockdowns don't work.

Ignoring the US for a moment, Europe is the epicenter of this. Sweden gets brought up for comparison a lot because it is the only European example of an alternative model.

Why therefore only compare it to its neighbours. The answer is that you are compelled to because if you compare it the rest of Europe it is doing just fine.

There will always be regional variations but all in all Sweden are doing as well as anyone else without destroying there economy.

What you refuse to do is acknowledge that numbers should many factors higher for Sweden than everywhere else if the lockdown Theoryis correct. Still no expotential curve on the death chart there. If Sweden was 800 or 900 at this stage I'd agree with you but their not which.

sheepysheep

cooperguy wrote: »

I guess you'll just ignore the main point of my post then

What was your main point?

sheepysheep

cooperguy wrote: »

So imagine what it would be like here if we had a death rate 3 - 6 times our neighbours (which is what they have with their policy)...

Why this instance on only comparing Sweden to its neighbours. It's not valid.

Imagine Ireland had adopted the Swedish Model, had the same death rate it currently has, and without the devestating effects on our economy.

Can you give any reason why their strategy would have been equally effective here?

sheepysheep

storker wrote: »

That's just a throwaway line and not a real argument. There is much more evidence for social distancing having an effect on infection rates that just saying A happened then B happened so A caused B. That's a ridiculous oversimplification. You're putting "social distancing reduces infection rates" on the same level as "I forgot my umbrella and it rained, therefore it rained because I forgot my umbrella".

Medical premise: The virus is spread by close human contact.
Mathematical premise: Less instances of close human contact will slow the spread of the virus.
Logically sound conclusion: Social distancing will help reduce the spread of the virus.

Subsequent Observation: Infection rates have slowed.
Conclusion: Social distancing works.

What's your alternative interpretation?

It's not a throwaway line.

Correlation does not mean causation is the very basis of research analysis.

storker

sheepysheep wrote: »

It's not a throwaway line.

Correlation does not mean causation is the very basis of research analysis.

In the absence of other evidence, certainly, but there is supporting evidence for social distancing being effective, which I outlined and you ignored.

Again, what's your alternative interpretation?

cooperguy

sheepysheep wrote: »

What was your main point?

I suppose, every other sentence in the post except the one you highlighted? It basically rubbished your claim that the Irish government are "basically trying to move to the Swedish model hoping nobody notices, because all the new data is showing that they should change tack." It makes no sense

sheepysheep wrote: »

Why this instance on only comparing Sweden to its neighbours. It's not valid.

Imagine Ireland had adopted the Swedish Model, had the same death rate it currently has, and without the devestating effects on our economy.

Can you give any reason why their strategy would have been equally effective here?

I can also imagine a world where Coronavirus doesn't exist, it would equally be a figment of my imagination. Can you give a reason why Sweden is the worst performing in its region?

The fact that Ireland reports all deaths, both probable and confirmed, in the hospital and in the community means we have a higher reported rate than many countries. Ireland's transparency is being used as a stick to beat it with. It will only be later, when excess deaths per country are counted will we know the exact figures for each country

sheepysheep

cooperguy wrote: »

I suppose, every other sentence in the post except the one you highlighted? It basically rubbished your claim that the Irish government are "basically trying to move to the Swedish model hoping nobody notices, because all the new data is showing that they should change tack." It makes no sense



I can also imagine a world where Coronavirus doesn't exist, it would equally be a figment of my imagination. Can you give a reason why Sweden is the worst performing in its region?

The fact that Ireland reports all deaths, both probable and confirmed, in the hospital and in the community means we have a higher reported rate than many countries. Ireland's transparency is being used as a stick to beat it with. It will only be later, when excess deaths per country are counted will we know the exact figures for each country

I don't believe you rubbished anything. The loosening of restrictions is basically moving to the Swedish model of working their way through this crisis with lesser restrictions. What don't you understand about that? They have to loosen because they can't stay in lockdown indefinitely.

All you've done here is imply that the Swedes are been underhand in their reporting to suit your agenda. You have no evidence of that.

You also have no evidence that every death is being reported in Ireland or indeed that every death is being correctly reported. All you can go on is the reported figures and as far as I'm aware the Swedes do report on deaths in nursing homes.

I don't know why Sweden is Has more deaths/M than its neighbours but I also know that's not the only metric which matters.

Unless you're prepared to compare Sweden to other countries across Europe you're just fooling yourself that Sweden is doing badly or that this variance is significant to their strategy rather than specific regional reasons.

Would you care to explain why Ireland/Sweden death/M are the same if lockdown is vital. Or indeed, Sweden/Spain, Sweden/France.

There's been a general amount of complaints about Irelands transparency anyway.

sheepysheep

storker wrote: »

In the absence of other evidence, certainly, but there is supporting evidence for social distancing being effective, which I outlined and you ignored.

Again, what's your alternative interpretation?

Have a look at this and he'll explain.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY&t=16s

wakka12

sheepysheep wrote: »

I don't believe you rubbished anything. The loosening of restrictions is basically moving to the Swedish model of working their way through this crisis with lesser restrictions. What don't you understand about that? They have to loosen because they can't stay in lockdown indefinitely.

All you've done here is imply that the Swedes are been underhand in their reporting to suit your agenda. You have no evidence of that.

You also have no evidence that every death is being reported in Ireland or indeed that every death is being correctly reported. All you can go on is the reported figures and as far as I'm aware the Swedes do report on deaths in nursing homes.

I don't know why Sweden is Has more deaths/M than its neighbours but I also know that's not the only metric which matters.

Unless you're prepared to compare Sweden to other countries across Europe you're just fooling yourself that Sweden is doing badly or that this variance is significant to their strategy rather than specific regional reasons.

Would you care to explain why Ireland/Sweden death/M are the same if lockdown is vital. Or indeed, Sweden/Spain, Sweden/France.

There's been a general amount of complaints about Irelands transparency anyway.

Sweden is doing badly, it's just doing less badly than expected and similarly badly to many other central European nations.
Sweden has reported an average of 63 deaths daily over the last 31 days, an equivalent of 410 deaths daily if it was the size of France or the UK.
Hardly anything to be bragging about

As to why Sweden is doing better than some locked down countries, who knows yet. As I've said before, we do need to transfer to their model soon. But you seem believe there was never any cause for a lockdown, how would you feel if they hadnt and a similar situation had occurred here as in Belgium? I dont know why a government would take that chance , a lockdown looked like the best option at the time

storker

sheepysheep wrote: »

Have a look at this and he'll explain.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY&t=16s

No thanks. I've had my fill of watching long videos posted by conspiracy theorists, and learned my lesson. If you have a point to make, type it here.

wakka12

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-phase-ii-results-antibody-testing-study

New York reports very similar infection rate across the state of 14.9% in phase two of the antibody testing

sheepysheep

storker wrote: »

No thanks. I've had my fill of watching long videos posted by conspiracy theorists, and learned my lesson. If you have a point to make, type it here.

You think a respected epidemiologist is a conspiracy theorist? His credentials are examined at the start of the video. I'd say he's in a far better position to articulate an opinion than you or me somehow.

cooperguy

sheepysheep wrote: »

I don't believe you rubbished anything. The loosening of restrictions is basically moving to the Swedish model of working their way through this crisis with lesser restrictions. What don't you understand about that? They have to loosen because they can't stay in lockdown indefinitely.

You said they were trying to move to the Swedish model and hope nobody notices. That's simply silly. I explained why, you chose to ignore it and talk about something else.

All you've done here is imply that the Swedes are been underhand in their reporting to suit your agenda. You have no evidence of that.

You also have no evidence that every death is being reported in Ireland or indeed that every death is being correctly reported. All you can go on is the reported figures and as far as I'm aware the Swedes do report on deaths in nursing homes.

I havent said they are underhand. There are multiple ways of counting deaths. It's not underhanded, the numbers just arent directly comparable. Ireland has chosen to report on every possible death no matter where it happened. Very few countries are doing that.

I don't know why Sweden is Has more deaths/M than its neighbours but I also know that's not the only metric which matters.

Unless you're prepared to compare Sweden to other countries across Europe you're just fooling yourself that Sweden is doing badly or that this variance is significant to their strategy rather than specific regional reasons.

Would you care to explain why Ireland/Sweden death/M are the same if lockdown is vital. Or indeed, Sweden/Spain, Sweden/France.

Because Ireland has counted a death as a COVID death even if no test has been carried out and it is just suspected. We have some of the broadest reporting terms in Europe.

If you want to compare against the rest of Europe take a look at the excess deaths per country. Sweden is up close with the countries who have performed the worst: Italy, Spain, UK

There's been a general amount of complaints about Irelands transparency anyway.

There hasn't really

sheepysheep

wakka12 wrote: »

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/amid-ongoing-covid-19-pandemic-governor-cuomo-announces-phase-ii-results-antibody-testing-study

New York reports very similar infection rate across the state of 14.9% in phase two of the antibody testing

Is that NY state or NYC?

Just saw its NY state.

sheepysheep

cooperguy wrote: »

You said they were trying to move to the Swedish model and hope nobody notices. That's simply silly. I explained why, you chose to ignore it and talk about something else.




I havent said they are underhand. There are multiple ways of counting deaths. It's not underhanded, the numbers just arent directly comparable. Ireland has chosen to report on every possible death no matter where it happened. Very few countries are doing that.



Because Ireland has counted a death as a COVID death even if no test has been carried out and it is just suspected. We have some of the broadest reporting terms in Europe.

If you want to compare against the rest of Europe take a look at the excess deaths per country. Sweden is up close with the countries who have performed the worst: Italy, Spain, UK


There hasn't really

There's been plenty. Was directly addressed by CMO Holohan today too.

storker

sheepysheep wrote: »

You think a respected epidemiologist is a conspiracy theorist? His credentials are examined at the start of the video. I'd say he's in a far better position to articulate an opinion than you or me somehow.

No, I said posted when I meant to say cited, but I'm still not watching it, but feel free to write about the gist of it.

Would this be the alternative interpretation asked for (twice)?

cooperguy

sheepysheep wrote: »

There's been plenty. Was directly addressed by CMO Holohan today too.

i assume you're talking about meeting minutes which is a pretty specific thing as opposed to death rates etc etc.

But sure, continue ignoring comments you don't like.

growleaves

I can also imagine a world where Coronavirus doesn't exist, it would equally be a figment of my imagination. Can you give a reason why Sweden is the worst performing in its region?

Sweden's region is Northwestern Europe and the worst performing country in that region is Belgium.

cooperguy

growleaves wrote: »

Sweden's region is Northwestern Europe and the worst performing country in that region is Belgium.

Belgium is far from the worst performing. They have some of the highest testing rates and loosest reporting criteria. That's just misrepresenting the numbers

growleaves

Belgium is far from the worst performing. They have some of the highest testing rates and loosest reporting criteria. That's just misrepresenting the numbers

Okay since I'm not aware of the reporting criteria I retract my statement.

We'll get some kind of accurate country-to-country comparison when the dust settles.

More to the point is that if the spoofers were correct Sweden should have 100,000s of deaths but doesn't. It should be the worst in Europe but isn't.

We'll also see if the death toll is worse than Hong Kong Flu in 1969 (2 million dead). There goes another claim ('a one in 100 years pandemic') if it isn't.

We'll see if a much deadlier second waves materialises. The only reason people believe this will happen is because they've been reading articles about the Spanish Flu and because the virus is 'novel' (translation: I'm scared)

growleaves

Again the claim is that Ireland would have 85,000-100,000 deaths without a lockdown instead of circa 1,000.

So Sweden has 150-200,000 deaths or thereabouts right?

"Er no, but it has more deaths than Denmark, Norway, Finland, Iceland, Greenland..."

wakka12

growleaves wrote: »

Again the claim is that Ireland would have 85,000-100,000 deaths without a lockdown instead of circa 1,000.

So Sweden has 150-200,000 deaths or thereabouts right?

"Er no, but it has more deaths than Denmark, Norway, Finland, Iceland, Greenland..."

Well it was without any measures whatsoever, not just no lockdown. Sweden has implemented many measures to reduce both spread and mortality rates.

But yes, Sweden should be worse than it is if we are led to believe lockdowns are as effective as first thought. And it demonstrates that social distancing measures in place there are more than enough to bring infection rates down to a moderate level (so long as they are adhered to effectively, that is the major issue here in Ireland. Social distancing measures were not adhered to in early March)

Ash.J.Williams

CinemaGuy45 wrote: »

I am sorry for your loss and I hope your family member makes a full recovery most people do.

I have been keeping my distance from everybody and washing my hards using sanitiser and not touching my face.

In work all of us take our breaks on our own.

I also knew a person who had died with this virus however he had many other health problems.

but he'd be alive otherwise?

abff

sheepysheep wrote: »

Ignoring the US for a moment, Europe is the epicenter of this. Sweden gets brought up for comparison a lot because it is the only European example of an alternative model.

Why therefore only compare it to its neighbours. The answer is that you are compelled to because if you compare it the rest of Europe it is doing just fine.

There will always be regional variations but all in all Sweden are doing as well as anyone else without destroying there economy.

What you refuse to do is acknowledge that numbers should many factors higher for Sweden than everywhere else if the lockdown Theoryis correct. Still no expotential curve on the death chart there. If Sweden was 800 or 900 at this stage I'd agree with you but their not which.

Actually, all I was doing was responding to the specific inaccurate statements you made in your post comparing Sweden to its near neighbours.

Your comment that I refuse to acknowledge etc. etc. is a complete non sequitur.

sheepysheep

cooperguy wrote: »

You said they were trying to move to the Swedish model and hope nobody notices. That's simply silly. I explained why, you chose to ignore it and talk about something else.

I havent said they are underhand. There are multiple ways of counting deaths. It's not underhanded, the numbers just arent directly comparable. Ireland has chosen to report on every possible death no matter where it happened. Very few countries are doing that.

Because Ireland has counted a death as a COVID death even if no test has been carried out and it is just suspected. We have some of the broadest reporting terms in Europe.

If you want to compare against the rest of Europe take a look at the excess deaths per country. Sweden is up close with the countries who have performed the worst: Italy, Spain, UK


There hasn't really

Politicians don't like to publicly accept responsibility for mistakes. They will never signal a change in direction if they can spin their way through it instead, regardless of party.


You said that Ireland was being hammered for being so transparent compared to other countries. The only logical conclusion here is that these other countries lack transparency, I guess for political purposes, in your mind. That could be termed underhand behaviour by the swedes as they were the topic of conversation. Its what you're implying, that they are just not as honest as us.


You know full well that the exact same situation exists for Ireland was was brought to prominence by the RIP guy who compared monthly averages.


There has been endless accusations of lack of transparency against the goverments handling of the crisis. From PPE equipment to the Private Hospitals contract, to meeting Minutes. And yes, for the very specific subject of nursing home deaths there were numerous requests for the detail. The RTE 6 o'clock news today addressed transparency today with Mary Lou and Alan Kelly piping up. I'm not sure if any of the criticism is warranted,however there's plenty of it.