has covid 19 been blown out of all proportion?

masculinist

views on this ?

https://youtu.be/421wQA4LZVQ

cryptocurrency

masculinist wrote: »

views on this ?

https://youtu.be/421wQA4LZVQ

a broken link.

noodler

cian68 wrote: »

That is precisely BECAUSE of the precautions taken

I just want to reemphasize this post.

Thread could have closed on page 2

40-50 people a day are dieing and it's not clear if that, or how much of that, will persist for the next 12-18 months.

It's alot of people. Thank god it's being spread.

masculinist

cryptocurrency wrote: »

a broken link.

i removed the built in YouTube tags and left just the link .. The tags made the link.not work

Arghus

Yes, the lockdown was 100% necessary and we should be wary of exiting it to quickly.

Obviously, big mistakes were made in how it was dealt with in nursing homes and residential care settings, but we are all very smart now several weeks down the line. There wasn't too many of us mentioning nursing homes specifically if you rewind the clock 7/8 weeks ago - before someone says different, yes, I know, some people were, but they definitely weren't the majority - we were all more concerned with our own personal health, if we were thinking about it at all, between wondering what we were going to do for Paddy's day.

People forget that all this has happened in an extraordinarily quick period of time. But if this crisis has thought me anything it is that a shocking amount of people are quite thick really.

The government are being hammered now everyday about nursing homes - okay there are questions to answer - but the opposition had basically nothing to say about this or about anything really for weeks and weeks. When the worst immediate predictions didn't come to pass suddenly the hurlers on the ditch found their long forgotten voices on a number of issues. While the government should be scrutinised, there's a definite element of plain old political point scoring going on as well. It stinks.

For the record, I don't think FG have been doing a faultless job, but, holy shit, talk about having to make a lot of momentous, unprecedented decisions in basically zero time - while everyone else had the luxury of faffing about, saying nothing. Not a bad time to be in opposition. Can you imagine how SF would have handled this?

Things are bad in nursing and care homes, but without the lock-down I shudder to think how much even worse it could have got.

Balf

Turtwig wrote: »

If we get the reopening wrong we will tank our economy anyway. Plus we'll have the problem of a rampant virus. It's a tight rope we're walking. I can't really understand why people are so hasty to walk it.

The economy has tanked. Its a current reality, not a future possibility. That's what makes the current situation unsustainable.

The incredulity should be more over how some folk seem to think this situation is sustainable for as long as our microbiological advisors say so. But our microbiological advisors are never going to tell us to stop.

Damn, we'll just have to go back to thinking for ourselves.

Balf

Arghus wrote: »

Obviously, big mistakes were made in how it was dealt with in nursing homes and residential care settings.

Where there? Or is that just the impact, no matter what we do?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-52399869

"The Irish nursing home statistics correlate with World Health Organisation (WHO) figures that indicate almost half of all people who have died in Europe with coronavirus were residents in care facilities."

is_that_so

Balf wrote: »

The economy has tanked. Its a current reality, not a future possibility. That's what makes the current situation unsustainable.

The incredulity should be more over how some folk seem to think this situation is sustainable for as long as our microbiological advisors say so. But our microbiological advisors are never going to tell us to stop.

Damn, we'll just have to go back to thinking for ourselves.

Way back in one of earliest briefings the CMO drew attention to the economic cost, that cure being worse than the disease scenario. NEPHT is not just medical people and they understand that managing this is not just about the disease.

hopalongcass

Balf wrote: »

The economy has tanked. Its a current reality, not a future possibility. That's what makes the current situation unsustainable.

The incredulity should be more over how some folk seem to think this situation is sustainable for as long as our microbiological advisors say so. But our microbiological advisors are never going to tell us to stop.

Damn, we'll just have to go back to thinking for ourselves.

We are basically in Celtic Tiger mark 2 at the moment,the banks throwing money at us and Leo and Simon are only to happy to dip into that bond market,they are pacifying the masses with wages for nothing while they absolutely decimate the future of the country.

So all the pro lockdowners should enjoy their wages for nothing and their daily tipple now because this is the heady days of Celtic Tiger mark 2 on steroids,it will be shorter and less enjoyable than the last one since we are cocooned but the payback is gonna be far worse than the last one.

Boggles

Deleted User wrote: »

I don’t think it was blown out of proportion by the government but it was by some of the scaremongering brigade that claimed 3m Irish would get it and possibly 50k deaths.

You mean people who peddle pesky science?

What model did you use yourself and what figures did you come up with without mitigation?

Balf

is_that_so wrote: »

Way back in one of earliest briefings the CMO drew attention to the economic cost, that cure being worse than the disease scenario. NEPHT is not just medical people and they understand that managing this is not just about the disease.

Can you post up a link to the membership of NPHET, so we can see how many members are not healthcare professionals? Outside of a token HSE funded " patient representative" will there be any?

Can you link the CMO statement you refer to? Because the usual line has been about needing to balance the impact on different kinds of healthcare service, not really the general economy.

Plumbthedepths

Balf wrote: »

Can you post up a link to the membership of NPHET, so we can see how many members are not healthcare professionals? Outside of a token HSE funded " patient representative" will there be any?

Can you link the CMO statement you refer to? Because the usual line has been about needing to balance the impact on different kinds of healthcare service, not really the general economy.

Kelly is an odious toad but he makes some good points.


https://extra.ie/2020/04/23/news/politics/alan-kelly-nphet-dail

Fred Cryton

HeidiHeidi wrote: »

Because these vulnerable people, almost by definition, need others to help and mind and tend to them - do you expect them to look after themselves in their nursing homes?


Or do you expect the nursing/medical/catering/cleaning staff of those places to hole up for the foreseeable future there as well, cutting themselves off from their own families?

Well that would certainly be preferable to the ENTIRE population cutting themselves off from their families, friends, businesses and everything else!

Fred Cryton

Deleted User wrote: »

Knowing what we know know now unless a vaccine becomes available a least 60% of the population will get this and at least 0.5% of those will die, which is a minimum of 15,000 people. That’s best case what happens if we maintain a working health service. It means spreading it out over a long period through various levels of suppression. I am hopeful current phase will top about under 2k, and we will have a trickle with occasional spike until we have a vaccine. If a vaccine is not possible, and a milder stain does not evolve or a treatment is found that’s what will happen but not what I expect to happen as treatments will improve and a vaccine should be feasible. If suppression had not been in place, well we would now being seeing hundreds of deaths every day with most people who develop serious symptoms not even being considered for treatment unless they were under 60 and otherwise healthy. Because the worst did not happen does not mean it could or would not have happened if we did nothing

Your death estimate is only accurate if the 60% of the population getting it is representative of the entire population, ie a random sample of 6 out of 10 people. But it won't be random because the elderly, nursing homes and those with underlying health issues will be isolating. So it will rip through the healthy 60% and death rates will be much, much lower than your estimate.

growleaves

That is precisely BECAUSE of the precautions taken

Zero proof of that. I don't believe it.

Nermal

Balf wrote: »

Can you post up a link to the membership of NPHET, so we can see how many members are not healthcare professionals? Outside of a token HSE funded " patient representative" will there be any?

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/eca0a9-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-first-meeti/

No members outside of a narrow healthcare focus.

Balf wrote: »

Can you link the CMO statement you refer to? Because the usual line has been about needing to balance the impact on different kinds of healthcare service, not really the general economy.

Nobody on that team cares about the economy. They all derive their status and salary from the State.

amadangomor

growleaves wrote: »

Zero proof of that. I don't believe it.

Good job that your opinion is basically worthless then.

facehugger99

Covid-19 shows how easy it is to manipulate people with fear.

Debunked predictions of 10's of thousands of deaths are being used to by unelected 'experts' to erode our democratic freedoms and all enthusiastically cheered on by social-media panic-merchants.

There is no evidence that the 'lockdown' is making much of a difference to infection rate. The only thing we can say with certainty is that it's fcuked the economy off a cliff.

Boggles

facehugger99 wrote: »

Covid-19 shows how easy it is to manipulate people with fear.

Debunked predictions of 10's of thousands of deaths are being used to by unelected 'experts' to erode our democratic freedoms and all enthusiastically cheered on by social-media panic-merchants.

There is no evidence that the 'lockdown' is making much of a difference to infection rate. The only thing we can say with certainty is that it's fcuked the economy off a cliff.

:pac:

growleaves

Lads and ladies,

Correlation is not causation is one the first things you learn in a university science class.*

You choose to believe the lockdown saved 85,000 lives without proof, without even the beginning of a scientific investigation into the measures. You have that choice. I won't believe it unless I am shown proof and that is an objective position.

* Especially relevant for measures that haven't been tried before and are purely theoretical.

growleaves

amadangomor wrote: »

Good job that your opinion is basically worthless then.

You want the lockdown to be held to a lower standard of proof than Creationism.

Fred Cryton

Fred Cryton wrote: »

Your death estimate is only accurate if the 60% of the population getting it is representative of the entire population, ie a random sample of 6 out of 10 people. But it won't be random because the elderly, nursing homes and those with underlying health issues will be isolating. So it will rip through the healthy 60% and death rates will be much, much lower than your estimate.

To be clear, that was based on no vaccine and no new treatments or a milder strain not becoming endemic. We cannot isolate the elderly forever. Long term its worse than prison.

storker

growleaves wrote: »

You want the lockdown to be held to a lower standard of proof than Creationism.

Rubbish. There is a body of knowledge that went into the the decision about which restrictions to apply, a body of knowledge consisting of the data from previously-studied pandemics and epidemics. There is no such body of knowledge for creationism.

wakka12

Fred Cryton wrote: »

Your death estimate is only accurate if the 60% of the population getting it is representative of the entire population, ie a random sample of 6 out of 10 people. But it won't be random because the elderly, nursing homes and those with underlying health issues will be isolating. So it will rip through the healthy 60% and death rates will be much, much lower than your estimate.

Yeh but thats not realistic, if it is actually let rip through the population in reality it will find it's way to many elderly and sick people no matter how much they are protected. They make up a huge proportion of the population, 20-25% of the entire country are over 65 and or with an underlying condition, then pregnant women, smokers, obese people. Theres just no way of sealing away such a large part of society from the healthy segment

boardlady

Ashleigh1986 wrote: »

The media put the fear of God into a lot of Irish people by showing army trucks in northern Italy with coffins in them .
Ireland WAS NEVER GOING TO GET THE SAME AMOUNT OF CASES AS ITALY .
For many reasons .
Population / age / health reasons etc .
We need to reopen businesses on the 5th may .
2 weeks after that restaurants should be allowed to open .
Only after that should they look at what can be done with the pubs .
Of course 800 deaths are shocking .
Over half are in nursing homes .
The elderly and especially those with bad health should continue to " cocoon" but we need to get back to doing business .
Schools should remain closed until September .
Anyone doing the leaving cert.... Split those up to classes of 15 per class with supervision to do exams .

Those sentences are easy to trip off the tongue when they don't effect you personally. 'Elderly' folk - some very fit and active - are going out of their minds with all autonomy lost and effective prisoners in their own homes. Where they are widowed, they are completely on their own. Your next sentence 'but w need to get back to doing business' .. are the so called elderly not entitled to get back to business too? And those living in single rooms in nursing homes without visitors for weeks? We are all taking the hit for the greater good. I don't advocate lockdown forever either, but we are not out of the woods yet and any opening up at this stage could be premature and set us back.

growleaves

PhilOssophy wrote: »

Best laugh of the day was Alan Kelly, yes Mr. Irish Water, a rail line costing €600 per passenger in subvention and diddly squat else, telling Leo Vradkar, a trained doctor, that he thought the NPHET were calling the shots.

“Ultimate decision making cannot be in the hands of a few and elected office cannot be subservient even in this crisis.”

Eh yes they are Alan, and rightly so. This thing has killed 2.6m people and you want a bunch of teachers in charge? Dr. Tony Holohan and his team, as well as the entire health service have done a great job to date, thankfully they making the decisions with the health of our nation at risk, not some idiot from Tipp who has made a career out of being a politician.

Oh right so a Dáil representative who is "a trained doctor" can decide whether or not elected government can be entirely subordinated to a medical-advisory committee, because medical expertise is the sole criteria of our governing system. Perhaps this should have been included in the Constitution at some point, so it wouldn't come as such a shock?

boardlady

Deleted User wrote: »

To be clear, that was based on no vaccine and no new treatments or a milder strain not becoming endemic. We cannot isolate the elderly forever. Long term its worse than prison.

My poor mother has been isolating on her own for months now. At least in prison (or a nursing home actually) she would have company and someone else would be cooking her three meals a day ...

boardlady

boardlady wrote: »

Those sentences are easy to trip off the tongue when they don't effect you personally. 'Elderly' folk - some very fit and active - are going out of their minds with all autonomy lost and effective prisoners in their own homes. Where they are widowed, they are completely on their own. Your next sentence 'but w need to get back to doing business' .. are the so called elderly not entitled to get back to business too? And those living in single rooms in nursing homes without visitors for weeks? We are all taking the hit for the greater good. I don't advocate lockdown forever either, but we are not out of the woods yet and any opening up at this stage could be premature and set us back.

Well said. Cocoon is easy to say when you are 40, living with your family and going to work every day. Think of a 75 year old active widow with no major conditions, who now cannot see their children or grand children, cannot meet friends, go to shops and are living alone. Now tell them they must live like that for the next year or 2. If I was in that position for anything more than 6 months or so I'd prefer to get out and live and take whatever risk was there. At that age you may well get sick and die of something else anyway. The thought of doing so without living while you can would drive me crazy

boardlady

boardlady wrote: »

My poor mother has been isolating on her own for months now. At least in prison (or a nursing home actually) she would have company and someone else would be cooking her three meals a day ...

Same as that boardlady

Boggles

boardlady wrote: »

My poor mother has been isolating on her own for months now. At least in prison (or a nursing home actually) she would have company and someone else would be cooking her three meals a day ...

WTF?

I doubt your poor mother would care to be in a nursing home or a prison.

There is no law prohibiting her from leaving her house to go shopping for essentials or for exercise in a 2km radius of her home, cocooning is guidance only.

I'd also suggest if she has been cocooned for months she made that decision on her own, which is prudent and intelligent.