Long term lockdown - What’s the plan?

I think at this point it probably deserves a discussion of its own. A large number of people are in favour of lockdown and want it to continue, even in the longer term. One guy wanted schools to remain closed until late in 2021!

I haven’t seen anyone actually answer what the end goal of this lockdown would be? Are we waiting for a vaccine that could be still far away, if it even ever comes? Are we hoping Covid will just go away?

There is an avalanche of problems building as a result of this lockdown. The longer we stay locked down, the worse it gets. Hospitals are not even close to capacity right now.

What would be the actual goal of locking down for say 3 more months or even longer? Covid most likely will still be here.

ek motor

I think they will gradually ease restrictions over the coming weeks/months, then tighten them again as new cases increase above a certain level. I think this pattern will continue until a vaccine or effective anti-viral drug treatment is found. Sort of like turning a tap on and off.

2u2me

We need to get testing to an adequate level, and the spread rate down to a level. It took the Chinese 11 weeks, but ours seems way more relaxed, expect 15-16 weeks.

To reopen we need contact tracing in place. (app?)

ek motor

ek motor wrote: »

I think they will gradually ease restrictions over the coming weeks/months, then tighten them again as new cases increase above a certain level. I think this pattern will continue until a vaccine or effective anti-viral drug treatment is found. Sort of like turning a tap on and off.

Possibly so. It makes sense to at least get hospitals up to capacity. At least we might then be moving closer to herd immunity, if such a thing even exists.

Spanish Eyes

Don't ask me, ask the experts.

Kermit.de.frog

Do we feast on the goo inside?

Spanish Eyes

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Don't ask me, ask the experts.

Not sure we even have any in situations like this. Obviously the health experts will prioritise health. But the financial experts will tell you we are screwed if we don’t open the economy soon.

Don’t envy our leaders in this at all.

kravmaga

2u2me wrote: »

We need to get testing to an adequate level, and the spread rate down to a level. It took the Chinese 11 weeks, but ours seems way more relaxed, expect 15-16 weeks.

To reopen we need contact tracing in place. (app?)

The HSE are already working on a contact tracing app similar to the one active in Singapore.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0423/1134473-over-1-700-trained-in-contact-tracing-hse/

Plumbthedepths

ek motor wrote: »

I think they will gradually ease restrictions over the coming weeks/months, then tighten them again as new cases increase above a certain level. I think this pattern will continue until a vaccine or effective anti-viral drug treatment is found. Sort of like turning a tap on and off.

Opening up and locking down repeatedly will in itself destroy the mental health of 1000's and ruin what is left of the economy.

Beasty

This is exactly what "flattening the curve" is all about. We seem to have things reasonably under control in terms of it not overrunning our healthcare facilities. We are "coping" which may encourage some relaxation of restrictions. If we continue to "cope" then we may get further relaxation of restrictions. If it blows up again we may see a further clampdown

None of us know for sure as this is a novel virus that is not fully understood. It may be "wave" 2 or 3 when we start to get a proper understanding.

We are fortunate in Ireland in this virus got a hold after many other countries had been overwhelmed, and we could learn lessons from what happened in those other countries (which is why I think we do have it reasonably under control). The UK decided to do their own thing and Britain in particular are suffering as a result of decisions taken earlier in the process. Even there though the health system has not been overwhelmed because of lessons learned on the back of the likes of Italy and Spain

Ultimately the "plan" will evolve as we get a better understanding of this virus

What Username Guidelines

There may be something in the Swedish approach tbh. Austria, Belgium and others opening may confirm it.

Lots of countries got caught out with the virus circulating, Spain France UK and Italy were living as normal with massive concerts, matches, protests (80k in Madrid protesting at the start of March) and saw soaring spikes in cases.

Some say as they reopen they’ll see a massive spike or a bigger wave 2, but the Swedish approach, while having a higher death rate per capita right now, isn’t overwhelming their healthcare system. No lockdown, but they’re working from home where they can, social distancing, limiting social contacts, etc. They’re not seeing huge spikes in numbers. I’m not sure if I fully believe they’re close to herd immunity tbh.

In Ireland we went in somewhat early. Lots of offices started work from home in early March. Schools closed on the 12th, pubs on 16th and then lockdown 23rd. We had a gradual increase in cases, and what I hope will now be a continuing decrease over the next few days. ICU never filled up, surge capacity wasn’t needed, private hospitals not needed, citywest step down only saw some patients.

Hopefully the next step will ease some restrictions and allow a little more freedom. More businesses open, same social distancing as supermarkets. No concerts or large gatherings, but maybe small social circles. Get every builder and trades back into employment and off social welfare. This will all lead to more spread, but hopefully with capacity built up we’ve lots of room in hospitals and step downs to use when needed.

Looking like events and pubs/hospitality folks will be unfortunate in the medium term. No idea about schools, that’s a hard one and many can’t go back to work if they’ve no childcare. Personally, I can work from home and my wife is essential public staff, but she might have to even leave her job as no childcare. Which is madness to be leaving a job in this climate.

Testing and contract tracing is being ramped up, so that’s another angle that should help dampen things. I’m not overly confident as there have been lots of unfulfilled promises regarding test process and lots of anecdotal evidence of very poor or no contact tracing.

I think there may be something to be said for masks for everyone in public or at least in shops. In public would be almost impossible to enforce and maybe overkill, but if shops could enforce it to gain entry, I think it would also be another barrier to slow this thing down. Even just some form of face and nose covering. But there’s a whole other thread for that.

I think the balance here is very difficult, and the absolute goal should be to ensure it doesn’t **** up completely and end up using the heavy handed lockdown again as a safety net. Also made more difficult by public buy in and patience, have to factor in that if they say the limit is X, plenty will push it to Y, etc.

Is it all realistic? Who knows. Any business that does open won’t see half the business they used to due to social distancing and limited numbers, alongside lack of disposable income. Public transport will run a deficit if a bus can only take 20 people due to closed off seats, etc.

While not everyone will comply, a higher level of understanding the need for washing hands, staying home if sick, etc will be another thing that should help.

Lastly, while there are debates around immunity post-infection, there may be some immunity, and if there is, having more and more immune people breaks more chains of transmission.

What Username Guidelines

kravmaga wrote: »

The HSE are already working on a contact tracing app similar to the one active in Singapore.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0423/1134473-over-1-700-trained-in-contact-tracing-hse/

Even in Singapore it has a very poor uptake, maybe 30% or so. Can’t imagine enough agreeing to use it here for it to be effective.

Risteard81

kravmaga wrote: »

The HSE are already working on a contact tracing app similar to the one active in Singapore.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0423/1134473-over-1-700-trained-in-contact-tracing-hse/

I certainly won't be installing any app.

ShineOn7

Risteard81 wrote: »

I certainly won't be installing any app.

Because you're afraid of being tracked and you don't already think some device or app you own isn't already doing that?

In 2020?

Isn't it a bit late to be thinking about these things now?.. Should there not have been a plan on how to extricate ourselves from lockdown before going into it?..

hmmm

Because this is a new disease, there is no plan. Instead, every country is trying to figure out their next steps, and are taking the situation as it comes. We'll look at other countries and how they are getting on, try relaxing some of the higher impact issues, monitor the results. Roll these things back if the infection rate shoots up.

Risteard81

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Because you're afraid of being tracked and you don't already think some device or app you own isn't already doing that?

In 2020?

I don't carry a phone half of the time. I don't need to broadcast my wherabouts to the galaxy and Leo the Liar or Boris or Arlene or that twat O'Neill.