Asymptomatic Cases

ShineOn7

Hmmzis wrote: »

One can test positive before developing any symptoms. Viral sheding can happen before any symptoms start, hence Korea having so much trouble keeping it under control even with their monumental effort of testing, tracing and isolating all contacts.

The data from the Diamond Princess was quite the jaw dropper for me as the asymptomatic/symptomatic split was almost 50/50 regardless of any age groups or pre-existing conditions. Same with that aircraft carrier and other places where extensive testing has been done, including our own care homes. I can't quite wrap my head around that, we're missing something very important that could save many, many lives.

Could we start testing those asymptomatic cases for any other coronavirus antibodies (HCoV types, since no others made it far)? Maybe some tests on their angiotensin system, any particular differences? I'm sure this must be driving the researchers and doctors nuts.

I'd throw Dr Paddy Mallon and other high profile consultants who've given Covid interviews an email with that. Fúck it, it's worth a shot

What Username Guidelines

Mongfinder General wrote: »

That's pretty much what I worked out for Dublin when weighting confirmed cases in Dublin against the sample size and multiplying by population quotient.

Yeah my GP is on Twitter and posts a lot of covid stuff. He reckons from calls to his practice and what he’s hearing from other GPs, the stringent test requirements (2 symptoms) and accounting for the possible 4/5 being asymptomatic, that we’re finding about 4% of actual cases. I find that a low %, but what do I know. It would mean Dublin has 150k cases, or just over 10% of population.

I don’t have the skill to work our age ranges and what not, but there’s probably a calculation to figure out likelihood of symptoms depending on age and age spread of population.

It’s also anecdotal, but on a zoom call with friends and out of 11 of us, all know lots of unconfirmed cases, and 8 were sure that during March they had some symptoms so who knows. The flip side here is when we started testing the positivity rate was 3%, so 97% of those thought the same. Maybe are confirmed cases are spot on.

It makes me wonder if a vaccine in September is even gonna cut it or will Ireland hit herd immunity before then. Given it’s so concentrated in Dublin. And Cavan.

Pretzill

What Username Guidelines wrote: »

It makes me wonder if a vaccine in September is even gonna cut it or will Ireland hit herd immunity before then. Given it’s so concentrated in Dublin. And Cavan.

Aren't the WHO stating there's no evidence yet of becoming immune after contracting Covid-19 - it's seems like a right bastard this one.

Away With The Fairies

Pretzill wrote: »

Aren't the WHO stating there's no evidence yet of becoming immune after contracting Covid-19 - it's seems like a right bastard this one.

I'm hoping there will be a vaccine and booster vaccines given when needed.

Hmmzis

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I'd throw Dr Paddy Mallon and other high profile consultants who've given Covid interviews an email with that. Fúck it, it's worth a shot

Would you know any contact details for any of them by any chance? Please PM me if you have.

What Username Guidelines

Pretzill wrote: »

Aren't the WHO stating there's no evidence yet of becoming immune after contracting Covid-19 - it's seems like a right bastard this one.

Yep absolutely, but there is an understanding that if there is immunity it could be short term in months. So spreading out the curve will mean repeat infections if that’s the case. It’s all so unknown. Obviously the curve needs to be spread so health services can cope.

Even if there is some immunity short term, it places shields in vectors by having a certain % of the population immune which slows contagion. Again, all unknown. Sweden definitely being watched on this.

Hmmzis

Pretzill wrote: »

Aren't the WHO stating there's no evidence yet of becoming immune after contracting Covid-19 - it's seems like a right bastard this one.

They've since backpedalled on that one:

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405?s=19

ShineOn7

Hmmzis wrote: »

They've since backpedalled on that one:

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405?s=19

I really hate these WHO cúnts. And I don't use that word lightly

ShineOn7

Hmmzis wrote: »

Would you know any contact details for any of them by any chance? Please PM me if you have.

I don't but drop Baz Ashmawy a line on his Facebook. He did the interviews with Paddy

The HSE worker doing the very useful and informative AMA can be found here https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/member.php?u=928230

Pretzill

Hmmzis wrote: »

They've since backpedalled on that one:

https://twitter.com/WHO/status/1254160937805926405?s=19

They seem to enjoy confusing the general public ヽ(｀⌒´)ノ

wakka12

Iceland and the cruise ship both showed 50% asymptomatic.
The prison and homeless shelter , with 90%+, I would put less stock in as it just seems like click bait given the fact they never clarified whether it meant presymptomatic or asymptomatic and of course we will never get to find out anything about the follow up because media don't care behind the initial shock headline

And if the disease has a 90% asymptomatic rate,everyone would have it by now. But antibody testing in Italy Germany and USA has shown rates of infection of about 15-20% in epicentres, and 1-5% in less affected areas.

Mongfinder General

ShineOn7 wrote: »

I really hate these WHO cúnts. And I don't use that word lightly

I've always found this with state/semi state/international/NGO bodies. They nearly all seek publicity to promote their cause or business, hire expensive management/boards and PR, and spend most of their time manipulating various media channels. Self aggrandisement doesn't cover it.
Whenever a major problem or crisis hits, they are suddenly faceless. None of those responsible for their respective operations wants to know. They dare not shoulder any responsibility and are terrified of making a mistake in the public domain.

However, one notable exception of late is Dr Tony Holohan. Definitely not afraid to impart his wisdom and doesn't run from the questions.

JoChervil

I wonder if asymptomatic cases infect others. Few days ago in the main thread there was an interview with a professor from South Korea posted. And he said that people started infecting others precisely 2 days before showing symptoms. So maybe, if someone never shows symptoms, so is not contagious?

nj27

Stheno wrote: »

Didnt give a timeframe

That's unlike him.

paddythere

Away With The Fairies wrote: »

Does this person smoke by any chance?

Yep

Away With The Fairies

paddythere wrote: »

Yep

Wonder if there's some truth in smokers being better off?

ShineOn7

Is it just the reports we're seeing or does there seem to be vastly more asymptomatic cases in this Wave?





https://twitter.com/ZaraKing/status/1309172872276041729

ACitizenErased

ShineOn7 wrote: »

Is it just the reports we're seeing or does there seem to be vastly more asymptomatic cases in this Wave?





https://twitter.com/ZaraKing/status/1309172872276041729

That's the effect of increased testing and masks, one would assume.
I usually count the community transmission cases as the ones with symptoms, as it means they presented to doctors, and the majority of the rest without.

ShineOn7

The Irish "government" and media have been very quiet about Asymptomatic cases lately.

Remember that big meat factory outbreak when something like 80% of cases showed no symptoms?

• Is there any recent, reliable data on Asymptomatic cases in Ireland? And
  
  
• Where are Asymptomatic cases recently in terms of Immunity? Is it very low?

(PS - mods, could we have a thread merge? https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showthread.php?p=114376411)

ShineOn7

What the actual feck?

It's an outlier though. John Campbell has asymptomatic cases estimated now @ 18%

Excuse huge image

ShineOn7

In the UK the NHS are now stating on Ads that a third of all cases are now asymptomatic

This is up from John Campbell's analysis of 20%

Truly a bizarre b@stard of a virus

odyssey06

There's the theory that measures like masks and distancing reduce viral load, which mean if you do pick up the virus it's a mild dose and more likely to be asymptomatic.

ShineOn7

Professor Nolan on the briefing just now says Asymptomatic cases are pretty much consistently at 20% since June when full contact testing is in play