Ireland vs New Zealand

i_surge

dalyboy wrote: »

Irradiation of the virus is not without its noble merits BUT.. So we lock down GB and Ireland by building a virtual viral wall around our islands. Then what ?

How long do we stay with this status ? Once we let down our borders again it’s viral infection time again. Mind you this is after we overcome the mother of all political nightmare diplomacy with our EU trading zone.

Additionally we would need “buy in” from the public in all our proposed lockdown locations (People have families outside of Ireland & UK and need / deserve access) , business people have external interests and investments too. Whose to compensate these losses?

Fact is this virus could be with us decades (as it stands presently) and we need feasibility in our strategy.

As I say it’s a Nobel idea however logistically and executably it’s a pure fantasy.

You can still do business and travel for genuinely essential things with quarantine and testing. Draw the balance between practical and effective.

Allowing international travel without quarantine is how we got where we are. Proven to not work, yet we persist!

Just put a stop to the likes of Maura Higgins travelling to Greece for cocktails and selfies (I have microsoft homepage spam to thank for even knowing who she is).

i_surge

Morrison J wrote: »

This is a non-issue really. We'd allow people to still fly but they'll have to undertake mandatory testing on arrival at Dublin airport and to take another test a couple of days later to ensure they don't have the virus before they exit quarantine.

Like masks, people will buy into the plan 6 months later once they wake up.

httpete

dalyboy wrote: »

Irradiation of the virus is not without its noble merits BUT.. So we lock down GB and Ireland by building a virtual viral wall around our islands. Then what ?

How long do we stay with this status ? Once we let down our borders again it’s viral infection time again. Mind you this is after we overcome the mother of all political nightmare diplomacy with our EU trading zone.

Additionally we would need “buy in” from the public in all our proposed lockdown locations (People have families outside of Ireland & UK and need / deserve access) , business people have external interests and investments too. Whose to compensate these losses?

Fact is this virus could be with us decades (as it stands presently) and we need feasibility in our strategy.

As I say it’s a Nobel idea however logistically and executably it’s a pure fantasy.

Yes. You want to come to Ireland, then submit to a mandatory two week quarantine at the airport during which you are tested 2-3 times. And then you are free to go and do as you like in a fully open country. So there is nothing stopping people from coming/going, they just get quarantined so that those coming in with the virus are spotted in quarantine rather than waiting for them to infect X number of people.

We do this until a vaccine comes. The alternative, i.e. the policy we are currently following, is to have all entertainment establishments and events closed until the vaccine comes along with regional lockdowns and general massive inconvenience.

i_surge

dalyboy wrote: »

As I say it’s a Nobel idea however logistically and executably it’s a pure fantasy.

That's the Irish can't do attitude.

I think it is pure fantasy to carry on as we are and hope to wake up one day and it will be over and done with.

is_that_so

httpete wrote: »

How will they get the nod? They delayed the pubs re-opening in mid-July when cases numbers were approx. 20 per day. How have things gone since the last time they didn't get the nod?

If they couldn't re-open at 20 cases per day then I am assuming their criteria for re-opening is that they can be confident the numbers can be kept below 20 per day. Do you see us getting to a sustained level of less than 20 new cases a day?

Unless there is a strong policy change the numbers are not going back down to the level needed.

It is logical to deduce that based on the criteria for re-opening and how our numbers have been going, and likely will go, that the pubs are done for years since we are reliant on a vaccine being developed. Of course, I imagine a politician can't come straight and say this.

It's all about the schools and the high risk environment of pubs opening 3 weeks before them. Get schools open and the pubs stand a chance. Yes, if they are managing this issue in the Midlands well, I do. Community transmission is low. 20 IMO and below is tolerable. If we get below 10 that's as good as we can manage.

httpete

i_surge wrote: »

Like masks, people will buy into the plan 6 months later once they wake up.

People still don't realise the pubs and social scene in this country is finished until a vaccine arrives.

It will start to dawn on them when the pub opening gets pushed back again. Michael Martin has already hinted at it saying the pubs may not re-open this year.

This recent 'hint' was so that people have time to get used to the idea before he makes the announcement in September.

In my opinion, he knows well they are not opening until the vaccine arrives. Its politically impossible to say that though so instead they will just keep postponing it every few months.

biko

It'll be interesting to hear where the source was this time.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern today confirmed four new cases had been detected in Auckland - saying the source of the new cases was not immediately clear.

A case was initially detected in an individual in their 50s in south Auckland, and close contact testing showed three other people in the household positive for the virus.

Officials said the case was not linked to overseas travel.

Was it in the community this entire time but undetected?


https://www.newstalk.com/news/new-zealand-confirms-first-covid-19-cases-community-100-days-1059193

is_that_so

biko wrote: »

It'll be interesting to hear where the source was this time.

Was it in the community this entire time but undetected?


https://www.newstalk.com/news/new-zealand-confirms-first-covid-19-cases-community-100-days-1059193

Sheep?

httpete

is_that_so wrote: »

It's all about the schools and the high risk environment of pubs opening 3 weeks before them. Get schools open and the pubs stand a chance. Yes, if they are managing this issue in the Midlands well, I do. Community transmission is low. 20 IMO and below is tolerable. If we get below 10 that's as good as we can manage.

And how are we going to get below 10 when there are 50,000 flying in here a week who are free to go and do as they like.

Finland checked a random flight from Macedonia recently and found 24 out of 157 with coronavirus.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-finland-travel/scared-by-skopje-flight-finland-to-mandate-covid-19-tests-for-travellers-idUSKCN256296

Until we organise a mandatory airport quarantine we will constantly re-import the virus.

is_that_so

httpete wrote: »

And how are we going to get below 10 when there are 50,000 flying in here a week who are free to go and do as they like.

Finland checked a random flight from Macedonia recently and found 24 out of 157 with coronavirus.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-finland-travel/scared-by-skopje-flight-finland-to-mandate-covid-19-tests-for-travellers-idUSKCN256296

Until we organise a mandatory airport quarantine we will constantly re-import the virus.

Travel cases for us have now come down so we are looking at local spread. Donnelly is talking about something but theoretically as cases decline elsewhere the lower the risk is. You also don't know who these people are; the majority are Irish has been suggested all the way through this.

faceman

Ah that’s why NZ claim to be Covid free

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/420729/covid-19-testing-rates-drop-people-can-fall-into-a-bit-of-complacency

biko

is_that_so wrote: »

Sheep?

Then Wales is ****ed

Morrison J

Morrison J wrote: »

They had cases before and hunted them out before going on a streak of 100 days without a case. I'd expect them to do the same here tbh.

At the end of the day theyre locking down in order to get everything open and fully functioning again. We're locking down in order to live beside the virus which in my opinion is a fairly grim experience. We're basically pissing into the wind with no real end to this in sight. NZ are striving back to normality. There's such a massive difference in that.

In Ireland if you work in the arts, sport, hospitality etc your sector is on its knees and many are a lockdown away from being jobless. In NZ you're coming off 100 days of normal business. Think there's a larger toll on the population in a country like Ireland to be honest.

New Zealand might like to think the last 100 days has been normal, but it’s been far from it, and they face rolling lockdown until there is a vaccine if they want to maintain close to their current level of control.

Tenzor07

Deleted User wrote: »

New Zealand might like to think the last 100 days has been normal, but it’s been far from it, and they face rolling lockdown until there is a vaccine if they want to maintain close to their current level of control.

Facing a stagnant economy and a very slow recovery of the economy all to delay the full impact of the Virus that other countries have already experienced..

httpete

Deleted User wrote: »

New Zealand might like to think the last 100 days has been normal, but it’s been far from it, and they face rolling lockdown until there is a vaccine if they want to maintain close to their current level of control.

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Facing a stagnant economy and a very slow recovery of the economy all to delay the full impact of the Virus that other countries have already experienced..

So you think the people in New Zealand have it worse than us?

I'm not getting your point. Please explain how the last three months has been worse for people in New Zealand than it has for people in Ireland?

And there's no point bringing GDP it, GDP is going to take a historically bad hit in every country. Besides GDP, we are paying 16 billion net IN to the European recovery fund to bail out Italy and Spain, something NZ don't have to do.

Tenzor07

httpete wrote: »

So you think the people in New Zealand have it worse than us?
I'm not getting your point. Please explain how the last three months has been worse for people in New Zealand than it has for people in Ireland?
And there's no point bringing GDP it, GDP is going to take a historically bad hit in every country. Besides GDP, we are paying 16 billion net IN to the European recovery fund to bail out Italy and Spain, something NZ don't have to do.

Longer more severe lockdowns means the economy stagnates, as other countries reopen their economies then cash flows slowly back through the system.
NZ have printed around $60 billion so far.

While Ireland's economy is also on life support at least our recovery will be faster than the isolated island nation.

lee_baby_simms

httpete wrote: »

They will handle these 4 cases just like the handled the original outbreak. This will be absolutely trivial for them compared to when covid first struck and they upwards of 80 cases a day.

And then they will be back open again fully like they have been for the past 3+ months. While, we will have no pubs, nightclubs, festivals, gigs, regional lockdowns, and generally massive inconvenience..and we are facing years of this.

But they haven’t been open for the past 3 months. Their tourism industry makes up 21% of foreign exchange earnings and that’s been wiped out and will be for the foreseeable now.

And while the virus now burns out in every community that it has already impacted New Zealand are where most European countries were back in March. More lockdowns until....who knows.

ceadaoin.

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

But they haven’t been open for the past 3 months. Their tourism industry makes up 21% of foreign exchange earnings and that’s been wiped out and will be for the foreseeable now.

And while the virus now burns out in every community that it has already impacted New Zealand are where most European countries were back in March. More lockdowns until....who knows.

I saw some videos on twitter of panic buying happening in NZ also. It really is just like it was in March. the rest of the world has been over that for months, NZ will be facing it on a regular basis for the forseeable future with their unsustainable "zero covid" approach. Grim.

Tenzor07

ceadaoin. wrote: »

I saw some videos on twitter of panic buying happening in NZ also. It really is just like it was in March. the rest of the world has been over that for months, NZ will be facing it on a regular basis for the forseeable future with their unsustainable "zero covid" approach. Grim.

Not only that but with the low numbers of infections and deaths, 22 died due to covid I believe, if instances of the virus start appearing all over the country it will lead to 100% increases in deaths and new infections when it eventually does happen, very tough times ahead for NZ..

ceadaoin.

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Not only that but with the low numbers of infections and deaths, 22 died due to covid I believe, if instances of the virus start appearing all over the country it will lead to 100% increases in deaths and new infections when it eventually does happen, very tough times ahead for NZ..

If there's 4 cases of completely unknown origin then there are way more cases and its probably been silently spreading the whole time they've been "covid free". Its just finally reached a point where its been noticed. Seems to be how this thing works, lockdowns just kick the can down the road a bit

statesaver

are they gone into lockdown after 4 cases ?

Tenzor07

ceadaoin. wrote: »

If there's 4 cases of completely unknown origin then there are way more cases and its probably been silently spreading the whole time they've been "covid free". Its just finally reached a point where its been noticed. Seems to be how this thing works, lockdowns just kick the can down the road

Most likely it came from a failure of there 2 week quarantine system that some people keep bleating on about here...

thebaz

statesaver wrote: »

are they gone into lockdown after 4 cases ?

Yes , and panic buying has already started in Auckland shops - gob****es stock piling already - cause of 4 cases of a virus with a motrality rate of .3 - Am I missing something or going mad ?

Tenzor07

thebaz wrote: »

Yes , and panic buying has already started in Auckland shops - gob****es stock piling already - cause of 4 cases of a virus with a motrality rate of .3 - Am I missing something or going mad ?

Sadly it's true, and will happen here again too:

https://twitter.com/radionz/status/1293135683603664896

httpete

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Longer more severe lockdowns means the economy stagnates, as other countries reopen their economies then cash flows slowly back through the system.
NZ have printed around $60 billion so far.

While Ireland's economy is also on life support at least our recovery will be faster than the isolated island nation.

What recovery? We are now in the phase of semi-lockdown, interspersed with more severe regional lockdowns, until a vaccine arrives. How are we supposed to recover when the pub/entertainment industry with tens of thousands of staff members is out of business; with all the industries that supply the pubs being knock-on effected; with restaurants operating at 50% capacity; with tourism devastated. The PUP payment is still being issued to 260000 people. More businesses are closing every day.

And taking a 16 billion net loss bailing out EU countries such as Spain and Italy on top of that because they are in an even worse situation.

There is no prospect of actual recovery, we are on life support.

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

But they haven’t been open for the past 3 months. Their tourism industry makes up 21% of foreign exchange earnings and that’s been wiped out and will be for the foreseeable now.

Yes 21% of total exports which comes to 6% GDP. Our own tourism is only operating at a fraction of normal levels.

By open I mean open for the citizens in the country, everything is open and they can enjoy life as normal.

In any case, of course there has to be some financial hit in any approach to the pandemic. While taking a big financial hit, in New Zealand's case they can continue to enjoy life as normal.

We are also taking a big hit, but our lives are going to be devastated until a vaccine comes.

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

And while the virus now burns out in every community that it has already impacted New Zealand are where most European countries were back in March. More lockdowns until....who knows.

What burning out? We have had 26,000 cases out of 4,500,000 million people living here. Even allowing for the fact that there are more cases than those confirmed, it is years from burning out.

'Burning out' is not an appropriate term anyway given that it's been shown in several studies that antibodies have decreased severely after three months. So people are looking at a situation where they may get re-infected multiple times, like the flu or common cold.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-study-suggests-1.4303316

If we maintained the lockdown for another few weeks and brought the virus down to zero cases, we could have implemented mandatory quarantine at the airport and we would now be in a NZ/Taiwan situation going about our lives at normal. Instead of hundreds of thousand back in lockdown and the entertainment sector closed for business semi-permanently.

South Korea is the another country with mandatory quarantine. 52 million population so over 10 times the size of Ireland. Again, they have had a far, far better outcome than any European country.

thebaz

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Sadly it's true, and will happen here again too:

https://twitter.com/radionz/status/1293135683603664896

I never saw myself as a Conspiracy theorist believer - but the over reactionary Fear generated in society for a virus with a mortality rate of .3 has me seriously wondering what the **** is going on -

These queues and irrational Fear eat at the most vulnerable, the very people we are supposed to be protecting - My own mother is terrified of this new world , and no one in the mainstream media is really asking questions about has ther been an over-reaction - just right wing loons like Gemma and Co. Im deeply troubled.

wassie

statesaver wrote: »

are they gone into lockdown after 4 cases ?

Yes....for 3 days to conduct intensive contact tracing & testing.

Tenzor07

httpete wrote: »

What recovery? We are now in the phase of semi-lockdown, interspersed with more severe regional lockdowns, until a vaccine arrives. How are we supposed to recover when the pub/entertainment industry with tens of thousands of staff members is out of business; with all the industries that supply the pubs being knock-on effected; with restaurants operating at 50% capacity; with tourism devastated. The PUP payment is still being issued to 260000 people. More businesses are closing every day.
And taking a 16 billion net loss bailing out EU countries such as Spain and Italy on top of that because they are in an even worse situation.
There is no prospect of actual recovery, we are on life support.
Yes 21% of total exports which comes to 6% GDP. Our own tourism is only operating at a fraction of normal levels.
By open I mean open for the citizens in the country, everything is open and they can enjoy life as normal.
In any case, of course there has to be some financial hit in any approach to the pandemic. While taking a big financial hit, in New Zealand's case they can continue to enjoy life as normal..

Whilst Ireland's re-opening is slower and lagging behind the rest of Europe, it will open, trade will increase..slowly, cash flow which is the life blood of the economy will work its way through the system again.
Not saying it will be a V shaped recovery with the FFFG Govts extremely slow opening of the economy.

However NZ has already printed billions of dollars to keep the economy on life support, however like here, the magic money tree eventually runs out, and when you can't pay to run your multi billion Euro health service without cash flow then you're in serious trouble.

httpete

wassie wrote: »

Yes....for 3 days to conduct intensive contact tracing & testing.

And it is that approach that has allowed their citizens to enjoy normal lives for the past 100+ days while our lives have essentially been reduced to working drones slaving away. And our lives are going to be this way for the next few years so we better get used to it. Meanwhile, their citizens will soon be back to normal life while they await a vaccine.

lee_baby_simms

thebaz wrote: »

I never saw myself as a Conspiracy theorist believer - but the over reactionary Fear generated in society for a virus with a mortality rate of .3 has me seriously wondering what the **** is going on -

These queues and irrational Fear eat at the most vulnerable, the very people we are supposed to be protecting - My own mother is terrified of this new world , and no one in the mainstream media is really asking questions about has ther been an over-reaction - just right wingers like Gemma and Co. Im deeply troubled.

Couldn’t agree more. Unfortunately many don’t seem to be interested in the similar curves all over the world that have all risen and fallen in a similar fashion and now depict flatlining deaths per million and negligable ICU admissions. Excess deaths are all more or less on course for their yearly averages in the majority of countries.

The collective psychosis that news media and governments have instilled in people is far more scary than Covid right now.