Ireland vs New Zealand

hmmm

hmmm wrote: »

Psychologically it must be very tough. They are going from almost no restrictions to overnight hard lockdown with no warning, and this will repeat in the coming months.

At least ours we have a consistent level of restrictions, which isn't going to change hugely (even if we have local lockdowns).

I'm not sure which I'd prefer. I think businesses which are allowed open can plan better in the latter scenario.

A full lockdown followed by entirely reopening except tourism versus letting the virus do its this.

This is a no-brainer to me.

Tourism is down worldwide.

And in one scenario there is a possibility of people dying.

We should correct this idea that NZ economy is flying because a crowd of people was at the crusaders game. The latest IMF forecast has NZ GDP contracting more than Ireland in 2020

Tenzor07

Deleted User wrote: »

We should correct this idea that NZ economy is flying because a crowd of people was at the crusaders game. The latest IMF forecast has NZ GDP contracting more than Ireland in 2020

Exactly, I mean you could open Croke park for a GAA game tomorrow and it would be full many times over, doesn't mean the economy is flying.

The new cluster in NZ represents a 100% increase in the number of cases and has brought them back to where Ireland was in March.

Tenzor07

Tenzor07 wrote: »

Exactly, I mean you could open Croke park for a GAA game tomorrow and it would be full many times over, doesn't mean the economy is flying.

The new cluster in NZ represents a 100% increase in the number of cases and has brought them back to where Ireland was in March.

What do you reckon.. Should they get try back to normality or have five months like Ireland's just had?

Tenzor07

Deleted User wrote: »

What do you reckon.. Should they get try back to normality or have five months like Ireland's just had?

there won't be normality until a treatment/vaccine/cure is found...

Tenzor07

Tenzor07 wrote: »

there won't be normality until a treatment/vaccine/cure is found...

I don't know about that. I just had three and a half months of normality where Covid-19 was old news. Apart from these threads, I never thought of it. No masks. No social distancing. And I'm looking forward to hopefully getting back there again soon.

Temporary normality is more than welcome in the countries that are able to attempt it.

[Deleted User]

[Deleted User] wrote: »

We should correct this idea that NZ economy is flying because a crowd of people was at the crusaders game. The latest IMF forecast has NZ GDP contracting more than Ireland in 2020

Certainly illustrates how they got back to a sense of normality for 3 months. If you had the opportunity to do that, would you not take it? (I'm not saying it's possible for Ireland to do that) Is it purely tourism that is putting Ireland in a better position or is the economy of these two nations more complicated than that?

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

I really don't get this thread. How months of victory can suddenly turn into "sure that was a waste of time" because they get a few cases.

Probably because of the "victory" that nobody has actually won and are unlikely to "win" until we can vaccinate. Fight it sure but be aware that it's probably not going away for a good long while.

Tenzor07

Deleted User wrote: »

I don't know about that. I just had three and a half months of normality where Covid-19 was old news. Apart from these threads, I never thought of it. No masks. No social distancing. And I'm looking forward to hopefully getting back there again soon.
Temporary normality is more than welcome in the countries that are able to attempt it.

True, but can also lead to complacency, which could have compounded the current flare up they are having...
If people think it's all over then the masks, social distancing and extra hygiene can all go out the window.
Although it's better than the constant fear we're being kept in by FFFG/RTE here...

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

Certainly illustrates how they got back to a sense of normality for 3 months. If you had the opportunity to do that, would you not take it? (I'm not saying it's possible for Ireland to do that) Is it purely tourism that is putting Ireland in a better position or is the economy of these two nations more complicated than that?

When countries have gone at this with a phased approach like ourselves, it offers a greater range of possible responses based on cases emerging. We've only stepped back one level in the midlands and the impression is that it is working. For NZ it seems to be on or off and that comes with its own problems.

Deleted User

Deleted User wrote: »

Certainly illustrates how they got back to a sense of normality for 3 months. If you had the opportunity to do that, would you not take it? (I'm not saying it's possible for Ireland to do that) Is it purely tourism that is putting Ireland in a better position or is the economy of these two nations more complicated than that?

I think there is an issue in suggesting we can achieve what NZ have. Is it not simply too late? The virus is too well spread around the country to get to 0 barring a lengthy, heavy shutdown?

AdamD

AdamD wrote: »

I think there is an issue in suggesting we can achieve what NZ have. Is it not simply too late? The virus is too well spread around the country to get to 0 barring a lengthy, heavy shutdown?

Internally, I reckon you'd have to put F0 into quarantine hotels and force F1 to isolate at home. So no, Ireland can't do it. And that's before thinking about borders.

Doubs

Interesting reading in this thread - haven't been to boards in years but was curious how this latest spate of cases is being perceived back home (I live in NZ).

I'm not an economist so I don't know which is the better strategy in the long run, but NZ doesn't rely on tourism in the same way that Ireland does. Since the borders have closed the people who would normally be spending 1000's overseas have been staycationing and spending their money here, which seems to have helped the tourism industry a bit. There's loads of skiing in NZ so plenty people get stuck into that in Winter, and the Summers are really good, so it's about as good a country to have a local holiday in as there is. I can tell you that who people who live in New Zealand have never been happier to live in NZ than they/we have over the last 4 months, so purely from a mental health perspective it's been amazing. Nearly every day you'd have a conversation with someone about how lucky we are. Apart from contact tracing life has been normal here since April, and watching the rest of the world try to combat this thing feels a bit like a movie.

I've never quite understood why Ireland didn't close the borders - was it just because of economic impact? Did we have the ability to get together with NI and unite against this thing?

MadYaker

Doubs wrote: »

Interesting reading in this thread - haven't been to boards in years but was curious how this latest spate of cases is being perceived back home (I live in NZ).

I'm not an economist so I don't know which is the better strategy in the long run, but NZ doesn't rely on tourism in the same way that Ireland does. Since the borders have closed the people who would normally be spending 1000's overseas have been staycationing and spending their money here, which seems to have helped the tourism industry a bit. There's loads of skiing in NZ so plenty people get stuck into that in Winter, and the Summers are really good, so it's about as good a country to have a local holiday in as there is. I can tell you that who people who live in New Zealand have never been happier to live in NZ than they/we have over the last 4 months, so purely from a mental health perspective it's been amazing. Nearly every day you'd have a conversation with someone about how lucky we are. Apart from contact tracing life has been normal here since April, and watching the rest of the world try to combat this thing feels a bit like a movie.

I've never quite understood why Ireland didn't close the borders - was it just because of economic impact? Did we have the ability to get together with NI and unite against this thing?

Can't close the border in the north, the government up there are determined to follow westminister who've been a disaster, that's it in a nutshell. It wouldn't work anyway, we are too connected to the USA and europe. NZ is isolated by comparison.

is_that_so

is_that_so wrote: »

When countries have gone at this with a phased approach like ourselves, it offers a greater range of possible responses based on cases emerging. We've only stepped back one level in the midlands and the impression is that it is working. For NZ it seems to be on or off and that comes with its own problems.

The massive benefit to the "on or off" approach is a normal life though. No sickness, no paranoia, can meet who you want, travel around as much as you want, go on a pub crawl... I dunno why I'm listing what a normal life is, I'm sure you are aware :pac:

Strumms

I went out a New Zealander for about two years eight years ago, got to know quite a small number of her friends here of which a couple were from NZ and one whom I ended up working with was a New Zealander too.

They are a great bunch. Pragmatic, honest, caring and hard working folks. Lovely folks but don’t take shît.

They were all very ‘pro people’... looking after friends, family, loved ones. When the job was going south due to a change in management and them wanting the sun moon and stars, NZ guy on about 60 grand stood up to and with colleagues, led the line... when my NZ ex had her dad get violent with her mother because of drink... he was cut off for ‘years’ till he got his act together..

Irish are too fond of rolling over, concocting easy reasons why things ‘cannot’ be done.. instead of finding a way through leadership, intelligence and fortitude to overcome obstacles and make tough and hard decisions... REGARDLESS of whose nose gets put out of joint... “ ahhh bubbly bu but businessesess, economy, mental health, bubububu... its a fûckin jokeshop of a country.

Morrison J

TomSweeney wrote: »

Shows how pointless the 0 approach is.

They only have 22 deaths. They've had 100 days of normality. It's clearly a good strategy. Still think we could achieve it but unfortunately it's going to be up to the public to demand it which I can't see happening.

niallo27

Strumms wrote: »

I went out a New Zealander for about two years eight years ago, got to know quite a small number of her friends here of which a couple were from NZ and one whom I ended up working with was a New Zealander too.

They are a great bunch. Pragmatic, honest, caring and hard working folks. Lovely folks but don’t take shît.

They were all very ‘pro people’... looking after friends, family, loved ones. When the job was going south due to a change in management and them wanting the sun moon and stars, NZ guy on about 60 grand stood up to and with colleagues, led the line... when my NZ ex had her dad get violent with her mother because of drink... he was cut off for ‘years’ till he got his act together..

Irish are too fond of rolling over, concocting easy reasons why things ‘cannot’ be done.. instead of finding a way through leadership, intelligence and fortitude to overcome obstacles and make tough and hard decisions... REGARDLESS of whose nose gets put out of joint... “ ahhh bubbly bu but businessesess, economy, mental health, bubububu... its a fûckin jokeshop of a country.

Will you go away you soft ****er, its a virus, get the **** over it.

Del Griffith

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I really don't get this thread. How months of victory can suddenly turn into "sure that was a waste of time" because they get a few cases.

But the thing is, the virus was there the whole time. These cases didn't just turn up on a bus.

Timmyr

TomSweeney wrote: »

Shows how pointless the 0 approach is.

You're an idiot...

How is it pointless?

We've just had 100 days of normality, I've been able to live a normal life here that I wouldn't in Ireland

We have 1 active cluster at the moment, 1

Timmyr

Del Griffith wrote: »

But the thing is, the virus was there the whole time. These cases didn't just turn up on a bus.

The funny thing is, it literally could have turned up on a bus. One of the theories is that they had close contact with one of the managed isolation bus drivers

The virus definitely has not been here the whole time, we have had constant testing, over 500,000 people have now been tested

Timmyr

Apparently it will be announced soon that we have cases in the Waikato, hopefully part of the same cluster

Plumbthedepths

Timmyr wrote: »

Apparently it will be announced soon that we have cases in the Waikato, hopefully part of the same cluster

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/reply/2058073866/post/114301454


I think all you guys have done is suppressed the virus, it's still waiting.

Timmyr

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

https://touch.boards.ie/thread/reply/2058073866/post/114301454


I think all you guys have done is suppressed the virus, it's still waiting.

still the same cluster

Plumbthedepths

Timmyr wrote: »

still the same cluster

Unless your country's plan is long-term isolationism I genuinely cannot see how you keep Covid out. Already it was suggested it was imported on freight unless the source has changed.

Plumbthedepths

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Unless your country's plan is long-term isolationism I genuinely cannot see how you keep Covid out. Already it was suggested it was imported on freight unless the source has changed.

What do you think they should do?

Timmyr

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Unless your country's plan is long-term isolationism I genuinely cannot see how you keep Covid out. Already it was suggested it was imported on freight unless the source has changed.

Its highly unlikely it was imported on freight, thats just hearsay

SuperS54

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Unless your country's plan is long-term isolationism I genuinely cannot see how you keep Covid out. Already it was suggested it was imported on freight unless the source has changed.

The plan for countries who have managed to keep Covid under control is to maintain the status until a vaccine or better treatment method is available.

What alternate plan do you suggest?

Timmyr

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Unless your country's plan is long-term isolationism I genuinely cannot see how you keep Covid out. Already it was suggested it was imported on freight unless the source has changed.

The plan is long term isolation of NZ as a country if needed, anyone coming in has to do 14 managed isolation

That worked for the last 100 days, it can work again

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

Deleted User wrote: »

We should correct this idea that NZ economy is flying because a crowd of people was at the crusaders game. The latest IMF forecast has NZ GDP contracting more than Ireland in 2020

Do you have a link for this?

lee_baby_simms

[Deleted User] wrote: »

What do you think they should do?

Keep the elderly and at risk shielded and let healthy people go about their lives. It’s the only way out of this.

Assetbacked

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/coronavirus-we-must-save-lives-but-we-also-need-to-live-1.4329461?mode=amp

It talking about managing the virus but also getting on with our lives, highlighting the essential mere delaying of a first wave by NZ. Going into strict lockdown again for 4 cases shows such an impractical approach and shows that there is no real plan in NZ.

Most countries are through heir first wave of deaths and infections and are now just seeing increases in cases but deaths stabilising. NZ could end up getting its first wave of both deaths and cases in the autumn when the rest of the world is living with the virus. I'm glad I don't live there.

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater

Dr. Kenneth Noisewater wrote: »

Do you have a link for this?

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/IRL

https://www.imf.org/en/Countries/NZL

CJhaughey

Assetbacked wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/coronavirus-we-must-save-lives-but-we-also-need-to-live-1.4329461?mode=amp

It talking about managing the virus but also getting on with our lives, highlighting the essential mere delaying of a first wave by NZ. Going into strict lockdown again for 4 cases shows such an impractical approach and shows that there is no real plan in NZ.

Moat countries are through heir first wave of deaths and infections and are now just seeing increases in cases but deaths stabilising. NZ could end up getting its first wave of both deaths and cases in the autumn when the rest of the world is living with the virus. I'm glad I don't live there.

Lockdown isn't a permanent state of affairs, its used to slow transmission and not overload the health system.

NZ managed to have a return to normal life for the most part apart from foreign travel for the last 100 days.
Now they locked down Auckland because they found some cases and didn't want to have huge transmission rates overloading the health services and to give them time to track and trace the contacts.

NZ has already had cases and deaths so its not their first wave.
There have been nearly 30 cases identified with this latest outbreak and they have said that this outbreak is a new genome so its recently arrived and hasn't been in the community before so they are correct in doing what they are doing in my view.
I'd be happy to have a few weeks of lockdown if it meant a return to normal life again.
Unfortunately we are not going to have that option here.

plodder

Timmyr wrote: »

Its highly unlikely it was imported on freight, thats just hearsay

Everything is hearsay at this stage.

The NZ PM has said it's not related to cases in quarantine or to the initial wave. So, they have no clue where it came from at this point, except that it is a new strain.

https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0814/1159092-auckland-covid-infection-spread/

lee_baby_simms

CJhaughey wrote: »

NZ has already had cases and deaths so its not their first wave.

This virus only has one wave. Look at every country in the world for evidence. Regardless of measures. Deaths per million. Cases tell you nothing after the virus has risen and fallen.

NZ are rare in that they have managed to virtually eradicate it without community spread. But like any virus it will eventually work its way through the community. Rise and fall.

Once the virus has worked its way through a region deaths will go to virtually zero because the virus has run out of at risk people.

You can keep testing. And you'll find cases. But the deaths won't follow so they're meaningless.

If you want evidence of this look at every single country/region in the world that has been affected by this. Its the same everywhere. Without exception.

daheff

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Keep the elderly and at risk shielded and let healthy people go about their lives. It’s the only way out of this.

Which is fine until the healthy get infected in such numbers that it overwhelms the health service and scores die because we can't treat them all (like Italy).

dwayneshintzy

Hong Kong had its first case in January. From January until the start of July, HK had less than 10 deaths (and 28 days straight with 0 local cases coming into July). Cases have risen since the start of July, more than doubling the total number of cases, and deaths have risen to 69. Does that fit with what you're saying, lee baby simms?

I find it really bizarre that people are arguing against NZ's zero covid approach when it's very much with their grasp. Even if it was a month's hard lockdown in exchange for 100 days at a time. I'd definitely take it over our limbo dance.

Yeah, I mean Ireland had a way worse lockdown that NZ. People here talking like they were imprisoned in their homes for months so it wasn't worth it.

MickeyLeari

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Hong Kong had its first case in January. From January until the start of July, HK had less than 10 deaths (and 28 days straight with 0 local cases coming into July). Cases have risen since the start of July, more than doubling the total number of cases, and deaths have risen to 69. Does that fit with what you're saying, lee baby simms?

Have you been to HK? That is exceptionally low for such a densely packed city.

dwayneshintzy

MickeyLeari wrote: »

Have you been to HK? That is exceptionally low for such a densely packed city.

I have yeah. My point is that things have accelerated rapidly since the start of July; cases have more than doubled in 1.5 months and deaths increased 7 fold.

lee_baby_simms

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

Hong Kong had its first case in January. From January until the start of July, HK had less than 10 deaths (and 28 days straight with 0 local cases coming into July). Cases have risen since the start of July, more than doubling the total number of cases, and deaths have risen to 69. Does that fit with what you're saying, lee baby simms?

Yes it does. They are yet to get hit with it. They haven't had their wave yet, wave being - significant community spread.

We know from looking around the world that the burnout rate of this virus is within 300-700 deaths per million figure.

This rate differs by size of at risk population, obesity, healthcare etc.

Some countries have managed to suppress it but very few. Greece, NZ, Hong Kong. They haven't passed the virus yet.

expectationlost

is that another 13 cases on top of the previous 13 cases oh dear no wonder they extending the lockdown https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/14/new-zealand-covid-19-cases-all-linked-to-single-cluster-with-more-cases-expected

i_surge

lee_baby_simms wrote: »

Its the same everywhere. Without exception.

Completely wrong. Some similar curves of totally different magnitudes.

The difference between regimes couldn't be more stark!!

i_surge

dwayneshintzy wrote: »

I have yeah. My point is that things have accelerated rapidly since the start of July; cases have more than doubled in 1.5 months and deaths increased 7 fold.

And the wider point, look at the relatively very low numbers.

statesaver

New Zealand delay elections because of Covid. Could you image the media hysteria if the US or the UK did that ?

Fr_Dougal

faceman wrote: »

Ah that’s why NZ claim to be Covid free

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/national/420729/covid-19-testing-rates-drop-people-can-fall-into-a-bit-of-complacency

The Donald Trump approach, fewer tests, fewer cases.

Next they’ll be suggesting postponing elections...oh...

marno21

statesaver wrote: »

New Zealand delay elections because of Covid. Could you image the media hysteria if the US or the UK did that ?

It's constitutionally allowed in New Zealand. It's also allowed in the U.S. if the House and Senate agree to it.

Fr_Dougal

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

The Donald Trump approach, fewer tests, fewer cases.

Next they’ll be suggesting postponing elections...oh...

Not as few tests as Germany - about 11% of the population tested, China 6%, UK about 21% (on Par with US also 21%), Spain 15%, Brazil 6.3%...so on and so forth.