Off Topic Thread 5.0

molloyjh

Buer wrote: »

This is incredible. The Republicans may not only retain the Presidency and the Senate....they're right in the mix to take the HoR also.

Its scary. There are so many reasons not to vote Republican this year yet they are looking set to at least retain what they have if not improve on it. With a 3rd spike in C19 hitting the death rate is only going to climb. At a crucial time in the climate change issue we have a country that should be leading the way denying there's even a problem. The division and violence isn't going to gonaaay overnight. The whole thing is such a mess. I know I haven't had much faith the the US up to now, but this paints the place in an even poorer light than even I thought possible.

molloyjh

pickarooney wrote: »

I can't see Trump not winning it or at least he will never concede it.

What is the point of all those expensive opinion polls when they can't get the basics right?

Trump has it. I can't see a route to Biden winning at all. Even if he does get Pennsylvania. Trump is just too far ahead in other states.

Bazzo

I'd advise everyone to try to relax until later this evening. Almost no postal/early votes have been counted in some of the key battleground states. Fox and AP are calling Arizona for Biden, Nevada is looking very likely for Biden and from there he just needs one of those battleground states where the postal and early votes haven't been counted yet.

molloyjh

Bazzo wrote: »

I'd advise everyone to try to relax until later this evening. Almost no postal/early votes have been counted in some of the key battleground states. Fox and AP are calling Arizona for Biden, Nevada is looking very likely for Biden and from there he just needs one of those battleground states where the postal and early votes haven't been counted yet.

Biden is currently on 220. He should win Nevada, Arizona, Maine and Hawaii, bringing him to 245. Even if he can win Pennsylvania, that would only bring him to 265. He needs that and one other state.

Alaska is a guaranteed red state. Trump currently has a 4 point lead in Wisconsin, a 7.5 point lead in Michigan, a 1.5 point lead in North Carolina & a 2.2 point lead in Georgia.

In Pennsylvania Trump currently has massive 13.8 point lead. Now I know they only started counting their mail in votes yesterday and it will probably be a day or so before we get a sense of those. But thats a big lead. And unless Biden can win North Carolina or Georgia then then Pennsylvania simply doesn't matter.

Technically its not over yet, but I just don't see a way for Biden to win this.

dregin

Deleted User wrote: »

Lindsay Graham did everything he could not to be re-elected and yet he's back in the Senate.

America is giving Trumpism the seal of approval as we speak. Biden should win this but there is no rejection of the hard far right here.

FYP

Bazzo

molloyjh wrote: »

Biden is currently on 220. He should win Nevada, Arizona, Maine and Hawaii, bringing him to 245. Even if he can win Pennsylvania, that would only bring him to 265. He needs that and one other state.

Alaska is a guaranteed red state. Trump currently has a 4 point lead in Wisconsin, a 7.5 point lead in Michigan, a 1.5 point lead in North Carolina & a 2.2 point lead in Georgia.

In Pennsylvania Trump currently has massive 13.8 point lead. Now I know they only started counting their mail in votes yesterday and it will probably be a day or so before we get a sense of those. But thats a big lead. And unless Biden can win North Carolina or Georgia then then Pennsylvania simply doesn't matter.

Technically its not over yet, but I just don't see a way for Biden to win this.

Pennsylvania had millions of early or postal votes, something like 20% have been counted and of those 80% are going to Biden, he's up several points on Clinton across the board in bellwether statescounties, he's looking good there.

Similar stories in Michigan and Wisconsin except even less of those votes have been counted.

The NYT is still givng Biden a 70% chance to pick up North Carolina or Georgia, mostly because there are a bunch of Georgia votes to be counted in Atlanta which will lean very blue - NYT are giving him a 64% chane of picking up Georgia on the back of that.

There are actually twice as many routes to victory for Biden as Trump at the moment. Like I said, it's far from over, try to put it out of your mind until later today when we'll have a much clearer picture.

OldRio

sydthebeat wrote: »

Agreed.

Whatever the result, American needs to take a long cold hard look at itself....
And by proxy, the rest of the world needs to as well.
Perhaps there has been way to far a swing to the left in "some" issues lately

I have no idea what you mean Could you give 'some' examples.

swiwi_

What's the chance of Trump and Biden agreeing to share power :P

Wisconsin result should be out soon.

From what I gather Biden is close enough in the swing states that provided remaining mail in ballots are near the current average for Biden he should close the gaps everywhere bar Pennsylvania where he isn't looking great.

I'm not sure how much it matters though, this is a terrible day for America - they are in very bad shape.

sydthebeat

OldRio wrote: »

I have no idea what you mean Could you give 'some' examples.

Self declaration of gender and the erosion of female rights (there is a man in Limerick female prison right now)

Censorship and Cancel culture

As two examples.

I'm firm centrist myself and as everyone here knows I'll argue with shadow over issues.... But I do see there being a requirement to apply the brakes to some of the more extreme 'left' or 'progressive' issues which are decisive these days.

aloooof

Deleted User wrote: »

Wisconsin result should be out soon.

From what I gather Biden is close enough in the swing states that provided remaining mail in ballots are near the current average for Biden he should close the gaps everywhere bar Pennsylvania where he isn't looking great.

I'm not sure how much it matters though, this is a terrible day for America - they are in very bad shape.

Biden moves ahead in Wisconsin, reined in 100k swing. It sounds like he'll need the mail-in votes to remain significantly in his favour to have a chance.

OldRio

Erosion of women's rights? A left issue? When has Trump become a champion of women's rights?

The issue is the move to the right and the rise of fascism 'lite'. We all know where that ends.

As for the gender issue. I personally don't understand any of that but surely that's more a human rights issue.

Censorship purely a lefty thing. Nah. Just no. Right wing Censorship doesn't exist? Come on.

Synode

I'd agree OldRio, the problem is the rise of the Hard Right.

molloyjh

Looks like Bazzo is right. Forgive me Bazzo, I was wrong to despair! :pac:

In the last hour Biden has gone from -3.6 to +0.3 in Wisconsin. With a big mail in count to be had there its starting to look positive for Biden.

And indeed the NYT are saying Georgia is leaning towards Biden. Added to his existing tally, plus likely wins in Nevada and Arizona, those 2 stares would put Biden bang on the magic 270 number.

Michigan and Pennsylvania are both still in play too (and technically North Carolina, but that will almost certainly go Trump) so it doesn't look half as bad as I thought going to bed last night. It could still go either way, but fingers crossed the postal/absentee votes bring it home for Biden.

irishbucsfan

aloooof wrote: »

Biden moves ahead in Wisconsin, reined in 100k swing. It sounds like he'll need the mail-in votes to remain significantly in his favour to have a chance.

Georgia and Pennsylvania seem to be the likely source of good news if it’s coming. But could be a long wait.

aloooof

The bookies have Biden as favourite now. He must've been the outsider since about 1am.

pickarooney

Why, of all the southern states, would Georgia go blue? Is it mainly down to the way electoral districts are set up around Atlanta or is there some kind of semi-enlightenment in the state?

Bazzo

pickarooney wrote: »

Why, of all the southern states, would Georgia go blue? Is it mainly down to the way electoral districts are set up around Atlanta or is there some kind of semi-enlightenment in the state?

Big urban areas, lots of minority voters.

Bazzo

molloyjh wrote: »

Looks like Bazzo is right. Forgive me Bazzo, I was wrong to despair! :pac:

In the last hour Biden has gone from -3.6 to +0.3 in Wisconsin. With a big mail in count to be had there its starting to look positive for Biden.

And indeed the NYT are saying Georgia is leaning towards Biden. Added to his existing tally, plus likely wins in Nevada and Arizona, those 2 stares would put Biden bang on the magic 270 number.

Michigan and Pennsylvania are both still in play too (and technically North Carolina, but that will almost certainly go Trump) so it doesn't look half as bad as I thought going to bed last night. It could still go either way, but fingers crossed the postal/absentee votes bring it home for Biden.

I still wouldn't get too excited... it's very close but I think Biden is slightly edging it at the moment. As others have pointed out it's sad that it's this close at all, without covid would have to think this would have been a trump landslide.

Even though we all knew a "red mirage" was coming it's hard not to panic looking at the totals as they come in. The polls were also way off again(surprise surprise) so the red mirage isn't as much a mirage as they thought.

sydthebeat

OldRio wrote: »

Erosion of women's rights? A left issue? When has Trump become a champion of women's rights?

The issue is the move to the right and the rise of fascism 'lite'. We all know where that ends.

As for the gender issue. I personally don't understand any of that but surely that's more a human rights issue.

Censorship purely a lefty thing. Nah. Just no. Right wing Censorship doesn't exist? Come on.

you misinterpret the reason for my post.

im not arguing for or against any of what youve posted.

what i have said is that it has to be recognised that there is certainly a rise of a greater number of 'right viewed' voters over the last decade.

if you dont see that then no point reading on.

cancel culture and censorship....... look why at the 'reform section 5' movement in britain had to be started

'transgender issues and the erosion of female rights'.... there are an absolute myriad of issues around the ability to self identify as the opposite sex and the rights therefore to access facilities for that sex. we have seen the rise of slurs such as TERFs to describe women who fight for womens issues.

all you have to do is look at the current affairs forum here to see the vast different political issues which are being radicalised more and more... turning into "left" versus "right" with the left trying to shut down discussion and the right trying to own the libtards...

when politics veer to one side, and currently right wing populism is on the rise... there needs to be an understanding as to why its on the rise, and a recognition of the political will of the time, in order to apply a correction. Right wing populism is on the rise because of the view that the move to more extreme liberal politics needs to be halted and investigated more.
Thats all im saying.

Politicians sticking their fingers in their ears isnt going to make the problem go away.

and ill finish up on, Peter Casey got 340,000 votes in the 2018 presidential election... so there is a sizeable chunk of irish people who resonated with his views.

irishbucsfan

The frustrating thing is that Biden needs either Georgia or Pennsylvania. Georgia seems to have had issues with the count in Atlanta causing delays and Pennsylvania’s state legislature refused to change the law to allow early counting of Mail ballots. So it creates this massive delay where the incumbent can get up to all kinds of mischief and sow the seeds of doubt in the fertile minds of the American population.

If it goes to the Supreme Court there’s a chance he could actually steal the election. Mad to think that’s even possible, would really relegate the country into proper banana republic territory.

stephen_n

Bazzo wrote: »

I still wouldn't get too excited... it's very close but I think Biden is slightly edging it at the moment. As others have pointed out it's sad that it's this close at all, without covid would have to think this would have been a trump landslide.

Even though we all knew a "red mirage" was coming it's hard not to panic looking at the totals as they come in. The polls were also way off again(surprise surprise) so the red mirage isn't as much a mirage as they thought.

Of course it would have been a Trump landslide. In any other situation Biden would be unelectable. America was doing well under Trump in terms of its economy and employment. He hadn’t managed to tank the economy he was given or start any new wars. Why wouldn’t he be re-elected?

aloooof

Even if Biden wins, the worrying part is that this close an election won't discourage future candidates from using Trump-style rhetoric and division.

Bazzo

stephen_n wrote: »

Of course it would have been a Trump landslide. In any other situation Biden would be unelectable. America was doing well under Trump in terms of its economy and employment. He hadn’t managed to tank the economy he was given or start any new wars. Why wouldn’t he be re-elected?

Because he's a disgusting piece of **** of a human being?

America was doing well with employment and economically under Obama, why elect (R)Trump?

kuang1

No matter what the final outcome this has been an embarrassment for the Dems.

Just looking at Florida alone: with almost all of the votes counted, Trump is up by 3.4%.
That's absolutely huge for him in that state. He only beat Hilary by 2% 4 years ago there.

When you consider the age demographic in Florida along with the impact of covid, how the Democrats couldn't manufacture a win out of that is mind boggling.
They're saying it's the latino vote that stuck with trump there, but it's not like they didn't know this in advance.

Interested Observer

irishbucsfan wrote: »

The frustrating thing is that Biden needs either Georgia or Pennsylvania. Georgia seems to have had issues with the count in Atlanta causing delays and Pennsylvania’s state legislature refused to change the law to allow early counting of Mail ballots. So it creates this massive delay where the incumbent can get up to all kinds of mischief and sow the seeds of doubt in the fertile minds of the American population.

If it goes to the Supreme Court there’s a chance he could actually steal the election. Mad to think that’s even possible, would really relegate the country into proper banana republic territory.

He doesn't need either. If he wins AZ, NV, WI and MI then he'll be on 270.

irishbucsfan

Interested Observer wrote: »

He doesn't need either. If he wins AZ, NV, WI and MI then he'll be on 270.

Yep sorry, I had given Michigan to Trump but there’s definitely still some way to go there

aloooof

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Yep sorry, I had given Michigan to Trump but there’s definitely still some way to go there

Seems like it. Trump's lead down from ~230k to 65k a short while ago.

Interested Observer

aloooof wrote: »

Seems like it. Trump's lead down from ~230k to 65k a short while ago.

Was just about to say that, as per here: https://results.decisiondeskhq.com/2020/general/michigan

Apparently this is expected as they're counting votes from Detroit/county which tend far more blue than red.

Wisconsin is going to be crazy tight but results should be soon.

errlloyd

Feeling good...