Off Topic Thread 5.0

Podge_irl

They are still counting but they seem to have stopped reporting and are planning to do it mostly in big dumps.

Neil3030

Looks like the Republicans will not retake the Senate.... but neither will the Dems.

Looks like it will end 50-48 in favour of the GOP, with a double run off in Georgia on Jan 5:

Watkins (D) vs Loeffler (R)
Ossoff (D) vs Perdue (R)

If Dems win both seats, the house would be tied and Harris would have a tie-breaker in any votes.

That run off race is going to be insane.

irishbucsfan

Seems unlikely the Democrats would win both seats in Georgia but it’ll be an outrageous election if it had that much impact

Neil3030

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Seems unlikely the Democrats would win both seats in Georgia but it’ll be an outrageous election if it had that much impact

Yeah I'd agree with that. Very hard to see a historically red state effectively hand the senate, and thus, control of all three branches of govt., to the Democrats.

kuang1

Neil3030 wrote: »

Looks like the Republicans will not retake the Senate.... but neither will the Dems.

Looks like it will end 50-48 in favour of the GOP, with a double run off in Georgia on Jan 5:

Watkins (D) vs Loeffler (R)
Ossoff (D) vs Perdue (R)

If Dems win both seats, the house would be tied and Harris would have a tie-breaker in any votes.

That run off race is going to be insane.

Are there 2 independent senators included in the Dems 48?
And who is the qanon person that got a seat... Is she (I think it's a woman) included in the Republicans 50 because she'll vote with them?

Dog Botherer

no more Philadelphia results today. Trump still holds a narrow lead.

Dog Botherer

kuang1 wrote: »

Are there 2 independent senators included in the Dems 48?
And who is the qanon person that got a seat... Is she (I think it's a woman) included in the Republicans 50 because she'll vote with them?

That was in the House of Representatives, not the Senate. And yes, she’s a Republican and ran on the Republican ticket.

Podge_irl

Neil3030 wrote: »

Looks like the Republicans will not retake the Senate.... but neither will the Dems.

Looks like it will end 50-48 in favour of the GOP, with a double run off in Georgia on Jan 5:

Watkins (D) vs Loeffler (R)
Ossoff (D) vs Perdue (R)

If Dems win both seats, the house would be tied and Harris would have a tie-breaker in any votes.

That run off race is going to be insane.

1 Senate seat in Ga would be a massive win for the Dems. 2 is basically impossible.

Worth noting that Warnock (not Watkins) got 32% of the vote but the Repubs had 2 candidates running who split the vote. Perdue won but will potentially come in marginally under 50% (like 49.9) necessitating a run off. Both favoured to go R by quite a bit.

Podge_irl

Podge_irl wrote: »

1 Senate seat in Ga would be a massive win for the Dems. 2 is basically impossible.

Worth noting that Warnock (not Watkins) got 32% of the vote but the Repubs had 2 candidates running who split the vote. Perdue won but will potentially come in marginally under 50% (like 49.9) necessitating a run off. Both favoured to go R by quite a bit.

The thing about the runoff though (if Biden wins) is that the President (elect) is going to be campaigning hard off the back of a win and they will be able to put huge money against the run.

Trump you would imagine will be awol at that point and there are no visible Republicans on the national stage at the moment.

I also firmly believe that there are Republicans and Trump republicans and the latter may drift off if Trump loses.

Neil3030

Podge_irl wrote: »

1 Senate seat in Ga would be a massive win for the Dems. 2 is basically impossible.

Worth noting that Warnock (not Watkins) got 32% of the vote but the Repubs had 2 candidates running who split the vote. Perdue won but will potentially come in marginally under 50% (like 49.9) necessitating a run off. Both favoured to go R by quite a bit.

I knew he was a past or former Aston Villa player beginning with W.

Just found a choke-point in my memory heuristic.

swiwi_

Just finished watching paint dry and even the kettle boiled.

Still no result from Nevada :mad:

Neil3030

This is the most Jaco thing I'll read on Twitter today:

https://twitter.com/AriSchulman/status/1324350420244901888

Is Biden gaining enough in Pennsylvania?

92% and still over 100k behind?

Georgia 90% in and Biden trailing by 14%

Nevada looks like it's going to come in for Biden at this point.

Neil3030

Deleted User wrote: »

Is Biden gaining enough in Pennsylvania?

92% and still over 100k behind?

Georgia 90% in and Biden trailing by 14%

Nevada looks like it's going to come in for Biden at this point.

The general mood on Twitter is that if PA had counted absentees first, like a lot of other states, we wouldn't even be talking about it.

If there's 500k-700k votes outstanding, and Biden only needs to claw back 100k votes, that requires ~60% of the votes in districts that will largely report 3/1 or 4/1 in his favour.

Podge_irl

Deleted User wrote: »

Is Biden gaining enough in Pennsylvania?

92% and still over 100k behind?

Georgia 90% in and Biden trailing by 14%

Nevada looks like it's going to come in for Biden at this point.

Yes. He made up about 3-400k over the last 10%. In theory should end up without about a 1-200k surplus unless things go squiffy. Which is always possible.

Podge_irl

Deleted User wrote: »

The thing about the runoff though (if Biden wins) is that the President (elect) is going to be campaigning hard off the back of a win and they will be able to put huge money against the run.

Trump you would imagine will be awol at that point and there are no visible Republicans on the national stage at the moment.

I also firmly believe that there are Republicans and Trump republicans and the latter may drift off if Trump loses.

For sure, and an election when people know the lay of the land is always different. But I'd still be utterly amazed if both went D. I'd be mildly surprised if either went D to be honest.

It's disappointing. Mostly cause I can't stand looking at a man who clearly looks like he is wearing the skin of another human being.

Neil3030

There will be more QAnon members in the Republican division of the House of Representatives than there will be black people.

Sums up where that party is right now.

Synode

Deleted User wrote: »

Is Biden gaining enough in Pennsylvania?

92% and still over 100k behind?

Georgia 90% in and Biden trailing by 14%

Nevada looks like it's going to come in for Biden at this point.

Per the Guardian

Reminder: as things stand, Trump cannot win without Pennsylvania’s 20 electoral college seats. His lead has shrunk from 618,000 on Wednesday morning to 111,000 right now.

Biden will win.

Dog Botherer

Neil3030 wrote: »

There will be more QAnon members in the Republican division of the House of Representatives than there will be black people.

Sums up where that party is right now.

is it really surprising that a far right party has more far right cultist representatives than black representatives?

Neil3030

Dog Botherer wrote: »

is it really surprising that a far right party has more far right cultist representatives than black representatives?

Yes. It was surprising to some, including myself, that the Republican party has moved this way.

First, plenty of alternative narratives could explain the Presidential result of 2016:

Sexism.
Clinton was unlikeable.
Democrats ran an awful campaign, especially in key swing states.
Automation replacing blue-collar jobs, economic desperation.
People wanted to give "different" a chance.
Nobody really sure the VP candidate even existed, thus was his anonymity.
etc.

We then saw hope with the blue wave in the 2018 House/Senate elections that maybe traditional GOP voters might be reneging on their support of Trumpism.

We THEN saw strong polling data that suggested this blue wave would continue, especially in the Senate.

It didn't happen. It's surprising. It's sad. Trumpism is here to stay.

Dog Botherer

Neil3030 wrote: »

Yes. It was surprising to some, including myself, that the Republican party has moved this way.

First, plenty of alternative narratives could explain the Presidential result of 2016:

Sexism.
Clinton was unlikeable.
Democrats ran an awful campaign, especially in key swing states.
Automation replacing blue-collar jobs, economic desperation.
People wanted to give "different" a chance.
Nobody really sure the VP candidate even existed, thus was his anonymity.
etc.

We then saw hope with the blue wave in the 2018 House/Senate elections that maybe traditional GOP voters might be reneging on their support of Trumpism.

We THEN saw strong polling data that suggested this blue wave would continue, especially in the Senate.

It didn't happen. It's surprising. It's sad. Trumpism is here to stay.

exit polls had 93% of registered Republican voters casting their vote for Trump, an increase from 2016. it not only appears that Trumpism is incredibly popular amongst Republican voters, but that the “traditional GOP voters” (who i assume were fine with a mentally addled TV star president mishandling a pandemic when it was Reagan) are now a tiny minority of the GOP base.

Neil3030

Dog Botherer wrote: »

exit polls had 93% of registered Republican voters casting their vote for Trump, an increase from 2016. it not only appears that Trumpism is incredibly popular amongst Republican voters, but that the “traditional GOP voters” (who i assume were fine with a mentally addled TV star president mishandling a pandemic when it was Reagan) are now a tiny minority of the GOP base.

You're using the outcome, i.e., exit polls, to argue the outcome shouldn't be surprising? I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here.

pickarooney

I just looked up Clinton's running mate and I'm not sure I've ever heard the name Tim Kaine in my life before.

I think I saw 1 in 5 black men voted for Trump. Kind of points to how pretty much nobody that doesn't spend their day on Twitter really gives a damn about the president's personality or open advocacy of white supremacy.

Dog Botherer

Neil3030 wrote: »

You're using the outcome, i.e., exit polls, to argue the outcome shouldn't be surprising? I'm not sure what point you're trying to make here.

i wasn’t arguing anything with that post. just an observation.

sydthebeat

Biden is now at 1/20

Its just a matter of course at this stage

swiwi_

Trump regrets labelling democrat voters as lazy. “When it comes to elections, they just mail it in.”

Neil3030

Biden and Harris reportedly already attending briefings on both Coronavirus and the Economy.

Transcripts have been leaked:

"We're f*cked. Both counts. Any questions?"

ClanofLams

pickarooney wrote: »

I just looked up Clinton's running mate and I'm not sure I've ever heard the name Tim Kaine in my life before.

I think I saw 1 in 5 black men voted for Trump. Kind of points to how pretty much nobody that doesn't spend their day on Twitter really gives a damn about the president's personality or open advocacy of white supremacy.

Nowhere close to 1 in 5, 8% did per exit polls (which are by no means definitively reliable so it could be a bit lower or higher). That’s up two percent from exit poll estimates four years ago to be fair.

Donald Trump junior now calling for war.

The amount of misinformation being retweeted by the Trump family and all over social media is such a sad sight.

This isn't going to end well.

Burkie1203

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Donald Trump junior now calling for war.

The amount of misinformation being retweeted by the Trump family and all over social media is such a sad sight.

This isn't going to end well.

Some yokels in Arizona and Georgia interviewed on Sky News. Guns in hand.

The guy running the Nevada count centre had to draft police in to protect staff and family members from Trump supporters who are trying to block them getting in to count.