Off Topic Thread 5.0

Stheno

Yeah_Right wrote: »

JFK and ???

We were discussing this the other night. It is mad that guys who should probably be heading for the retirement home are running for president. I think they need to bring in a maximum age for running for office. Something like 65 or maybe 70. They also need term limits for their senate and congress.

And the supreme court isn't Ruth Bader Ginsburg 87? That's bananas.

The Donald is said to be depressed that his approval ratings are dropping, but more concerning Deborah Birx appears to be teetering on the verge of going over to the dark side

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-deaths-mount-trump-tries-to-convince-americans-its-safe-to-inch-back-to-normal/2020/05/09/bf024fe6-9149-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html%3foutputType=amp

irishbucsfan

Podge_irl wrote: »

Why? Obviously he will be close to winning no matter what and there is a decent chance of him getting in. Bookies seem to have him as slight favourite. But on the flipside he is setting records for unpopularity and he didn't win by that much last time - less than 100,000 votes across 3 states that have not done super well under him.

Biden is a **** candidate, but a damp towel would have a reasonable chance of taking it. I see this a lot, and it just feels like some kind of weird doom-mongering or preemptive acceptance of a **** situation.

Trump already has about 5 or 6 times the campaign funding that Biden has. Biden is going to struggle to raise in the current climate. Trump is going to be able to completely out-campaign him... Biden isn’t exactly going to be able to make up for that lack of capital with energy and work rate (if that’s even possible in the first place!).

Maybe things will change between now and then, hopefully they do, but I can’t see how Biden can run a campaign that beats Trump’s campaign. No one will come across the aisle to support a candidate surrounded by harassment stories. No one in his camp seems to have any massive pulling power. A very popular VP candidate might kick start things for him... but I think Trump is going to need to be the one to lose this election.

Bazzo

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Trump already has about 5 or 6 times the campaign funding that Biden has. Biden is going to struggle to raise in the current climate. Trump is going to be able to completely out-campaign him... Biden isn’t exactly going to be able to make up for that lack of capital with energy and work rate (if that’s even possible in the first place!).

Maybe things will change between now and then, hopefully they do, but I can’t see how Biden can run a campaign that beats Trump’s campaign. No one will come across the aisle to support a candidate surrounded by harassment stories. No one in his camp seems to have any massive pulling power. A very popular VP candidate might kick start things for him... but I think Trump is going to need to be the one to lose this election.

But they don't need people to cross the aisle. They need democrats who didn't bother their hole 4 years ago to vote, and not even a huge number of them.

Yeah_Right

Stheno wrote: »

And the supreme court isn't Ruth Bader Ginsburg 87? That's bananas.

The Donald is said to be depressed that his approval ratings are dropping, but more concerning Deborah Birx appears to be teetering on the verge of going over to the dark side

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-deaths-mount-trump-tries-to-convince-americans-its-safe-to-inch-back-to-normal/2020/05/09/bf024fe6-9149-11ea-a9c0-73b93422d691_story.html%3foutputType=amp

I forgot about the supreme court!! Thats nuts that it is a position for life. I'm sure some people would probably say I'm being ageist but there is no way someone in their late 70s or 80s should be making the decisions these people are charged with making.

prawnsambo

Yeah_Right wrote: »

I forgot about the supreme court!! Thats nuts that it is a position for life. I'm sure some people would probably say I'm being ageist but there is no way someone in their late 70s or 80s should be making the decisions these people are charged with making.

It seems to be a corollary to their being political appointments. "It took us 20 years to get you there, so you can stay there as long as you're able to remain approximately upright". A form of indentured servitude really.

irishbucsfan

Bazzo wrote: »

But they don't need people to cross the aisle. They need democrats who didn't bother their hole 4 years ago to vote, and not even a huge number of them.

I doubt Biden is going to be the electrifying force that increases turnouts among registered democrats. It seems more likely to me that those people would turn out to vote against Trump than for Biden. But that’s not the sort of catalyst you’d want to be relying on...

prawnsambo

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I doubt Biden is going to be the electrifying force that increases turnouts among registered democrats. It seems more likely to me that those people would turn out to vote against Trump than for Biden. But that’s not the sort of catalyst you’d want to be relying on...

VP choice is probably critical here. Biden is no spring chicken - even older than Trump iirc, so the chances of the VP taking the oath of office is pretty high. Harris is probably the obvious choice as she has extensive political experience, would appeal to ethnic minorities and is young enough to offset Biden's age.

Bazzo

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I doubt Biden is going to be the electrifying force that increases turnouts among registered democrats. It seems more likely to me that those people would turn out to vote against Trump than for Biden. But that’s not the sort of catalyst you’d want to be relying on...

But that's exactly it, Biden might be meh but they've had 4 years of Trump. If that doesn't motivate you to vote I don't know what the **** would.

Neil3030

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Trump already has about 5 or 6 times the campaign funding that Biden has. Biden is going to struggle to raise in the current climate. Trump is going to be able to completely out-campaign him... Biden isn’t exactly going to be able to make up for that lack of capital with energy and work rate (if that’s even possible in the first place!).

Maybe things will change between now and then, hopefully they do, but I can’t see how Biden can run a campaign that beats Trump’s campaign. No one will come across the aisle to support a candidate surrounded by harassment stories. No one in his camp seems to have any massive pulling power. A very popular VP candidate might kick start things for him... but I think Trump is going to need to be the one to lose this election.

Do you follow the polls in the swing states?

Podge_irl

Yeah_Right wrote: »

JFK and ???

We were discussing this the other night. It is mad that guys who should probably be heading for the retirement home are running for president. I think they need to bring in a maximum age for running for office. Something like 65 or maybe 70. They also need term limits for their senate and congress.

Teddy Roosevelt. Which I'll be honest, I would not have guessed in a million years. Guy looks 60 in all his photos.

Edit: younger than JFK

Podge_irl

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Trump already has about 5 or 6 times the campaign funding that Biden has. Biden is going to struggle to raise in the current climate. Trump is going to be able to completely out-campaign him... Biden isn’t exactly going to be able to make up for that lack of capital with energy and work rate (if that’s even possible in the first place!).

Maybe things will change between now and then, hopefully they do, but I can’t see how Biden can run a campaign that beats Trump’s campaign. No one will come across the aisle to support a candidate surrounded by harassment stories. No one in his camp seems to have any massive pulling power. A very popular VP candidate might kick start things for him... but I think Trump is going to need to be the one to lose this election.

Clinton more or less doubled the spending of Trump.

As mentioned, no one needs to cross the aisle. No one is expecting any die hard republicans to vote for Biden, but it's hard to over emphasise just how bizarrely strongly people felt about Clinton and how little people knew how trump would act once in office and it was still razor thin stuff. You need less than a percentage point swing in 3 states and its done.

Neil3030

Warren is my pick for VP. She reminds me a lot of Mary Robinson, in the more academic or intellectually oriented politician. If Biden is the charm, she's the brain. Only concern is her age, but that's less of an issue with a female candidate. She'll do well with educated white people, women in particular. Biden will get the working class and minority votes. It's a fairly comprehensive ticket.

irishbucsfan

Podge_irl wrote: »

Clinton more or less doubled the spending of Trump.

As mentioned, no one needs to cross the aisle. No one is expecting any die hard republicans to vote for Biden, but it's hard to over emphasise just how bizarrely strongly people felt about Clinton and how little people knew how trump would act once in office and it was still razor thin stuff. You need less than a percentage point swing in 3 states and its done.

The fact Clinton had far, far more available to her campaign and was still completely out-campaigned by Trump wouldn’t exactly be something that fills me with confidence. All it shows is that the campaign behind Trump is known to be very effective with their resources.

irishbucsfan

Neil3030 wrote: »

Do you follow the polls in the swing states?

Only to the point where I’d say there’s almost nothing you can take from them at this stage.

Hopefully Trumps numbers absolutely plummet now that the extent of the crisis is known and then he struggles to turn that around once he starts campaigning in earnest

Neil3030

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Only to the point where I’d say there’s almost nothing you can take from them at this stage.

Hopefully Trumps numbers absolutely plummet now that the extent of the crisis is known and then he struggles to turn that around once he starts campaigning in earnest

There's nothing you can take from Biden being consistently ahead in pretty much every poll in every swing state, and thereafter that Nevada, Arizona and Texas are now toss ups?

Nothing??

prawnsambo

Neil3030 wrote: »

Warren is my pick for VP. She reminds me a lot of Mary Robinson, in the more academic or intellectually oriented politician. If Biden is the charm, she's the brain. Only concern is her age, but that's less of an issue with a female candidate. She'll do well with educated white people, women in particular. Biden will get the working class and minority votes. It's a fairly comprehensive ticket.

It's not going to really inspire ethnic minorities though.

irishbucsfan

Neil3030 wrote: »

There's nothing you can take from Biden being consistently ahead in pretty much every poll in every swing state, and thereafter that Nevada, Arizona and Texas are now toss ups?

Nothing??

How valid as predictors were polls taken for the same period in 2016, a year without a global pandemic? Or even swing state polling in general across the entire year?

The needle is going to move hugely between now and November for all sorts of reasons. I’d be more interested in polls when September comes around and the debates are on the horizon. Given we’ll have official candidates and tickets by then and pollsters won’t be calling people who have just learned their lives are changing massively for all sorts of reasons, as they were in March.

prawnsambo

irishbucsfan wrote: »

How valid as predictors were polls taken for the same period in 2016, a year without a global pandemic? Or even swing state polling in general across the entire year?

The needle is going to move hugely between now and November for all sorts of reasons. I’d be more interested in polls when September comes around and the debates are on the horizon. Given we’ll have official candidates and tickets by then and pollsters won’t be calling people who have just learned their lives are changing massively for all sorts of reasons, as they were in March.

They're putting Trump in a bad mood anyway. So there's that.

Dog Botherer

Neil3030 wrote: »

There's nothing you can take from Biden being consistently ahead in pretty much every poll in every swing state, and thereafter that Nevada, Arizona and Texas are now toss ups?

Nothing??

He’s not really consistently ahead though is he? They’ve both consistently polled within the margin of error in most swing states.

Biden is very clearly teetering in the brink of senility, if not over it. Trump is massively more coherent, which is absolutely terrifying. I am assuming that the Democrats are very aware of this and are planning on replacing Biden immediately after the convention (which is perfectly legal, doing it beforehand might be a real issue), or put a strong willed woman VP in there to be the face of the Biden White House.

Not many options there though. Warren is competent but not especially popular. Harris has an impressive CV but hit Biden very hard during her campaign which would come back to haunt them in the general, she also has a very shady history as a prosecutor which could hurt her and like Warren is unpopular in her home state. Stacey Abrams fulfills two minority slots but is relatively inexperienced and uninspiring. Gretchen Whitmer has had some good press lately but has little name recognition. No one else seems to realistically be an option right now.

swiwi_

Panda Killa wrote: »

Personally, if I was a power broker in the Democrats, I'd ask Biden to step aside due to health reasons, and paracelute Cuomo straight in.
He's everything that Trump isn't....a perfect choice for president imo

Is paracelute some sort of North American term...

Or just more evidence that the younger generation can’t read and write properly

swiwi_

Buer wrote: »

Pete Buttigieg is 38. He started well but faded. He might be placed to challendge again in 4 or 8 years depending on how his career goes.

Needs to change his name first. Else he ain’t going nowhere.

Dog Botherer

Buttigieg missed his window, 4 years ago he probably would have beaten Clinton to the nom, and then presumably Trump, entirely off his weird Obama impersonation.

swiwi_

Neil3030 wrote: »

Warren is my pick for VP. She reminds me a lot of Mary Robinson, in the more academic or intellectually oriented politician. If Biden is the charm, she's the brain. Only concern is her age, but that's less of an issue with a female candidate. She'll do well with educated white people, women in particular. Biden will get the working class and minority votes. It's a fairly comprehensive ticket.

I reckon she’s too old. The ticket would be basically “vote for the grandparents”.

errlloyd

Podge_irl wrote: »

Teddy Roosevelt. Which I'll be honest, I would not have guessed in a million years. Guy looks 60 in all his photos.

Edit: younger than JFK

And Teddy only got in as a result of being the Vice President when a president was killed.

Neil3030

prawnsambo wrote: »

It's not going to really inspire ethnic minorities though.

Well it's just Latinos that you need to inspire really. Biden is the most popular Democratic candidate amongst black voters, aside from maybe Cory Brooker, but it's a coin toss.

irishbucsfan wrote: »

How valid as predictors were polls taken for the same period in 2016, a year without a global pandemic? Or even swing state polling in general across the entire year?

The needle is going to move hugely between now and November for all sorts of reasons. I’d be more interested in polls when September comes around and the debates are on the horizon. Given we’ll have official candidates and tickets by then and pollsters won’t be calling people who have just learned their lives are changing massively for all sorts of reasons, as they were in March.

If you track the timeline of polls leading up to the 2016 election, Clinton, once nominated, incrementally declined in popularity (buyer's remorse: Bernie saw a corresponding upward trend in popularity, once he withdrew).

Biden's lead on Trump is not only growing, it's growing where it needs to grow. He is increasing the margin in swing states Clinton won (Virginia, Minnesota) and closing the gap and edging ahead in the others. A lot can change in six months, both good and bad, regardless of there being a pandemic or not, but these are not the same polling dynamics that emerged in 2016, even this early.

Buer

Dog Botherer wrote: »

Buttigieg missed his window, 4 years ago he probably would have beaten Clinton to the nom, and then presumably Trump, entirely off his weird Obama impersonation.

4 years ago he couldn't legally run for the office!

Dog Botherer

Neil3030 wrote: »

Well it's just Latinos that you need to inspire really. Biden is the most popular Democratic candidate amongst black voters, aside from maybe Cory Brooker, but it's a coin toss.

Incorrect, Bernie Sanders is far more popular amongst black voters than Booker. Admittedly his strength is amongst younger black voters, Biden is stronger with the older, more conservative members of the community.

Incidentally Sanders is incredibly popular in the Latino community. Biden, who threw the Latino community under the bus as a senior member of the Obama administration, not so much.

Dog Botherer

Buer wrote: »

4 years ago he couldn't legally run for the office!

That’s why it’s funny! He built his entire political career aiming towards a political moment that he missed by less than an electoral cycle. Couldn’t happen to a nicer guy.

Neil3030

Dog Botherer wrote: »

Incorrect, Bernie Sanders is far more popular amongst black voters than Booker. Admittedly his strength is amongst younger black voters, Biden is stronger with the older, more conservative members of the community.

Incidentally Sanders is incredibly popular in the Latino community. Biden, who threw the Latino community under the bus as a senior member of the Obama administration, not so much.

So at best, Bernie splits the black vote, meaning his net effect is null. Older people are also far more likely to vote.

Also, bringing in Bernie for the Latino vote won't work. You sacrifice the swing states in the rust belt for the toss up states along the border.

Remember, Biden has Pennsylvania, it's his home state, and it's a whopping 20 electoral college votes. Most of all the swing states except Florida?

That leaves him 18 shy of the White House. One or at most two more swing states will do it. He could probably spend every dollar in Florida and win the election.

swiwi_

Maybe the democrats need to spice up their campaign.

From the producers of “Nailin’ Palin” we give you “Ridin’ Biden”