Off Topic Thread 5.0

Dog Botherer

Neil3030 wrote: »

So at best, Bernie splits the black vote, meaning his net effect is null. Older people are also far more likely to vote.

Also, bringing in Bernie for the Latino vote won't work. You sacrifice the swing states in the rust belt for the toss up states along the border.

Remember, Biden has Pennsylvania, it's his home state, and it's a whopping 20 electoral college votes. Most of all the swing states except Florida?

That leaves him 18 shy of the White House. One or at most two more swing states will do it. He could probably spend every dollar in Florida and win the election.

I mean, not really, Bernie brings out the youth vote, the older vote are a safe Dem bloc. Biden’s youth numbers are terrible across the board.

Bernie ran the table on Hillary in the Rust Belt, it was a huge warning sign for her in the general that she ignored. No point in being strong in the south as a Dem, you’re not going to be net stronger than the Republicans.

Pennsylvania is not a lock by any means. Trump won it last time round, and remember, Biden is the senator from Delaware, not Pennsylvania. I also think Florida is a Republican lock purely because of demographics.

I’m not really trying to argue, my experience with electoral politics in this country has honestly been incredibly frustrating. Polling is next to useless in a crisis of this magnitude and no matter your general political persuasion it’d be hard to pick two less inspiring candidates in the face of the worst crisis this country has faced since probably the Civil War. And when you see the incredibly competent, reasonable Bernie Sanders marginalized by political infighting to prop up Joe Biden of all people, it’s just the cherry on top really.

jacothelad

Zzippy wrote: »

No offence Jaco, but you know better than to post unscientific nonsense like this. I've heard idiots in Ireland too saying they had it in December etc.
This thing is so contagious that if it was here in December - before we even knew about it, knew to prepare for it, or had time to prepare - the death rate would have started rising rapidly in January and the number of cases would have been in the hundreds of thousands in a matter of weeks. We are supposed to believe that it was here, gave some people a bad flu, but wasn't lethal until it popped up again 3 months later? Nonsense!

The doc reporting and investigating it is a well known epidemiologist. Also a number of old people dying of a pneumonia type disease in january wouldn't be remarkable at all. They would probably be signed of as winter 'flu.

ClanofLams

Dog Botherer wrote: »

Incorrect, Bernie Sanders is far more popular amongst black voters than Booker. Admittedly his strength is amongst younger black voters, Biden is stronger with the older, more conservative members of the community.

Incidentally Sanders is incredibly popular in the Latino community. Biden, who threw the Latino community under the bus as a senior member of the Obama administration, not so much.

The African American vote cost Sanders the nomination. He was popular with under 30s (albeit not landslide popular as he was with other ethnicities of that age group) but Biden wiped him out beyond that, as Clinton did in 2016.

Vice President nominee impact is overrated anyway unless you make a really bad decision. It’ll be even less important this year as the election will basically be a trump referendum. Kamala Harris is probably the safe choice. It will be a woman and a relatively young woman so think only other realistic option is Catherine Cortez Masto, Latina Senator from Nevada, could help in Nevada and with Latino community.

Zzippy

jacothelad wrote: »

The doc reporting and investigating it is a well known epidemiologist. Also a number of old people dying of a pneumonia type disease in january wouldn't be remarkable at all. They would probably be signed of as winter 'flu.

Except this thing is so infectious that a few old people dying would have infected a far greater number, and community spread would have been well-established long before we started seeing any diagnosed cases here, and very quickly it wouldn't have been just a few old people, it would have been a rapidly rising number. Look at the measures that have been taken since early March and we still have a large death toll. In January we knew nothing about this and had no preparations made. If it was in the country then we would have a huge death toll by now.

awec

Zzippy wrote: »

Except this thing is so infectious that a few old people dying would have infected a far greater number, and community spread would have been well-established long before we started seeing any diagnosed cases here, and very quickly it wouldn't have been just a few old people, it would have been a rapidly rising number. Look at the measures that have been taken since early March and we still have a large death toll. In January we knew nothing about this and had no preparations made. If it was in the country then we would have a huge death toll by now.

If I remember right, there are actually multiple strains of coronavirus in the wild, some more lethal than others.

Given China doesn't even know who patient zero is, and it appears to have been many months between initial infection and lockdown, I don't think it beyond the realms of possibility that there were cases of covid around the world before countries officially declared they'd detected it.

Zzippy

ClanofLams wrote: »

The African American vote cost Sanders the nomination. He was popular with under 30s (albeit not landslide popular as he was with other ethnicities of that age group) but Biden wiped him out beyond that, as Clinton did in 2016.

Vice President nominee impact is overrated anyway unless you make a really bad decision. It’ll be even less important this year as the election will basically be a trump referendum. Kamala Harris is probably the safe choice. It will be a woman and a relatively young woman so think only other realistic option is Catherine Cortez Masto, Latina Senator from Nevada, could help in Nevada and with Latino community.

Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer has also been tipped. She was picked to give the Democratic rebuttal to Trump's State of the Union address this year, and he was obviously worried enough about her that he's been critical of her on Twitter during the corona crisis.

Zzippy

awec wrote: »

If I remember right, there are actually multiple strains of coronavirus in the wild, some more lethal than others.

Given China doesn't even know who patient zero is, and it appears to have been many months between initial infection and lockdown, I don't think it beyond the realms of possibility that there were cases of covid around the world before countries officially declared they'd detected it.

The common cold is a corona virus, so you're right, there are many strains of corona virus in the wild. The current pandemic is caused by SARS-CoV2 virus. Viruses do mutate all the time, and produce new variants, but as far as I'm aware the virologists have not found any significant differences between any genetic variants detected so far, including transmissibility and virulence.

ClanofLams

Zzippy wrote: »

Governor of Michigan, Gretchen Whitmer has also been tipped. She was picked to give the Democratic rebuttal to Trump's State of the Union address this year, and he was obviously worried enough about her that he's been critical of her on Twitter during the corona crisis.

Yep should have mentioned her. I think she might be a bit too young and inexperienced (first term, governor less than 18 months albeit has been in State politics there almost fifteen years) but the Covid 19 crisis has helped her and she’s gone from basically non entity in vp stakes to live contender. Still think she will come up a bit short but who knows. Also ethnicity likely to not help her.

molloyjh

Zzippy wrote: »

The common cold is a corona virus, so you're right, there are many strains of corona virus in the wild. The current pandemic is caused by SARS-CoV2 virus. Viruses do mutate all the time, and produce new variants, but as far as I'm aware the virologists have not found any significant differences between any genetic variants detected so far, including transmissibility and virulence.

Plus I think the numbers tell all here. We started in March with a small number of fatalities that increased exponentially basically immediately. If C19 was here in Dec/Jan then how could the C19 deaths in March be so low and the rate of increase just suddenly jump?

ClanofLams

What’s going on with boards? Complete pain trying to use it last while. Threads not opening, forum going to oldest page etc

Stheno

ClanofLams wrote: »

What’s going on with boards? Complete pain trying to use it last while. Threads not opening, forum going to oldest page etc

Try incognito mode on Chrome

stephen_n

Bazzo wrote: »

But they don't need people to cross the aisle. They need democrats who didn't bother their hole 4 years ago to vote, and not even a huge number of them.

They are going to have huge difficulty getting the Bernie Bro’s to turn out and vote for Biden. They see him as a slightly lighter shade of the same sh1t as Trump. The Trump campaign will target Biden to turn more of them away from him. American campaigning is all about getting people not to bother voting. These allegations against Biden are only the start of that. The goal will be to make him unlikeable to Democrats, the Republicans already dislike him.

prawnsambo

stephen_n wrote: »

They are going to have huge difficulty getting the Bernie Bro’s to turn out and vote for Biden. They see him as a slightly lighter shade of the same sh1t as Trump. The Trump campaign will target Biden to turn more of them away from him. American campaigning is all about getting people not to bother voting. These allegations against Biden are only the start of that. The goal will be to make him unlikeable to Democrats, the Republicans already dislike him.

The Bernie Bros are sounding increasingly like the Corbynites in Labour who have taken to calling Keir Starmer a 'Tory'.

Not sure there's anything that will appeal to that cohort other than their anointed one tbh.

Stheno

prawnsambo wrote: »

The Bernie Bros are sounding increasingly like the Corbynites in Labour who have taken to calling Keir Starmer a 'Tory'.

Not sure there's anything that will appeal to that cohort other than their anointed one tbh.

I think Bidens a dreadful candidate tbh

I see him on tv and just see an old man who doesn't appear to be entirely at the races

prawnsambo

Meanwhile in the land of the Lerts, an as yet unquantified number of COVID-19 tests have gone missing. Leading to the use of this wonderful phrase in an email from the NHS, stating that full information is "increasingly becoming unavailable". :eek:

thomond2006

prawnsambo wrote: »

Meanwhile in the land of the Lerts, an as yet unquantified number of COVID-19 tests have gone missing. Leading to the use of this wonderful phrase in an email from the NHS, stating that full information is "increasingly becoming unavailable". :eek:

I'm bookmarking that line for future use. It's art.

Stheno

prawnsambo wrote: »

Meanwhile in the land of the Lerts, an as yet unquantified number of COVID-19 tests have gone missing. Leading to the use of this wonderful phrase in an email from the NHS, stating that full information is "increasingly becoming unavailable". :eek:

Wtf are the Lerts?

prawnsambo

Stheno wrote: »

Wtf are the Lerts?

STAY ALERT!!!

Stheno

prawnsambo wrote: »

STAY ALERT!!!

Duh!

prawnsambo

Stheno wrote: »

I think Bidens a dreadful candidate tbh

I see him on tv and just see an old man who doesn't appear to be entirely at the races

I couldn't agree with you more if I went around in ever-increasing circles to amplify my feelings on the subject.


Unfortunately, it's (so far) a case of we are where we are in the sense of a 'yellow dog' democrat.

prawnsambo

thomond2006 wrote: »

I'm bookmarking that line for future use. It's art.

You can absolutely see Sir Humphrey Appleby saying it with evident relish to a perplexed Jim Hacker.:D

stephen_n

prawnsambo wrote: »

The Bernie Bros are sounding increasingly like the Corbynites in Labour who have taken to calling Keir Starmer a 'Tory'.

Not sure there's anything that will appeal to that cohort other than their anointed one tbh.

They are a product of the political and economic environment. Their lack of pragmatism is exactly what Trump is relying on though. Bernie was a far more astute politician than Corbyn was but he attracted the same cult following. I would have preferred to see him nominated than Biden.

prawnsambo

stephen_n wrote: »

They are a product of the political and economic environment. Their lack of pragmatism is exactly what Trump is relying on though. Bernie was a far more astute politician than Corbyn was but he attracted the same cult following. I would have preferred to see him nominated than Biden.

Yeah. I thought this was his chance and then that maybe a younger more energetic politician would be better and then they picked Joe Biden.

stephen_n

prawnsambo wrote: »

Yeah. I thought this was his chance and then that maybe a younger more energetic politician would be better and then they picked Joe Biden.

It seems like they learned nothing from Clinton, Biden is slightly less offensive as candidate. When he stays awake that is.

Podge_irl

Sanders dropped out earlier and endorsed earlier than with Clinton. There is definitely an element of his support that won't support Biden, but its smaller than 4 years ago.

I really do find it all hard to believe.

Trump strikes me as exactly the type of person I would have thought Republicans and Conservatives would have a real problem with in politics based on decades of their rhetoric and yet he is an almost religious figure to them.

If you had stopped me in 2014 and told me not only that Trump would be elected in 2016 but that despite a massive list of serious crimes and major embarrassments that he would be reelected in 2020 I would flat out refuse to believe you. It simply wouldn't be credible and yet here we are.

Maybe America is just turning it's true face to the world, but it feels like they've succumbed to brainwashing and fundamentalism in large parts of the country. You really wouldn't know what kind of an America the world would be dealing with if Trump won another 4 years.

Dave_The_Sheep

Deleted User wrote: »

I really do find it all hard to believe.

Trump strikes me as exactly the type of person I would have thought Republicans and Conservatives would have a real problem with in politics based on decades of their rhetoric and yet he is an almost religious figure to them.

Maybe at first. But now he's a convenient smokescreen while the GOP get on with stealing from the taxpayer, stacking appointments across all levels of the judiciary and implementing all the policies they want. Trump distracts from all that. If the last four years has shown us anything, it's that the conservatives/republicans like nothing more than winning. If you win, they can overlook a lot.

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe America is just turning it's true face to the world, but it feels like they've succumbed to brainwashing and fundamentalism in large parts of the country.

Feels like? They 100% have.

sydthebeat

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe America is just turning it's true face to the world, but it feels like they've succumbed to brainwashing and fundamentalism in large parts of the country. You really wouldn't know what kind of an America the world would be dealing with if Trump won another 4 years.

im going to do a sweeping generalisation here, but america is a society that openly shuns intelligence and embraces ignorance.

In this post twitter world, facts are made of dust..... reality depends on the viewpoint of the observer... the emptiest of vessels make the most noise and american children are thought that popularity is status and therefore to be admired and adored.

when trump is called out on his lies and ignorance he simply ignores it, and there is literally no one to call him to account. No one would have the balls to enact the 25th amendment on him.... and even then would america want that brown noser pence as acting president?

prawnsambo

Dave_The_Sheep wrote: »

Maybe at first. But now he's a convenient smokescreen while the GOP get on with stealing from the taxpayer, stacking appointments across all levels of the judiciary and implementing all the policies they want. Trump distracts from all that. If the last four years has shown us anything, it's that the conservatives/republicans like nothing more than winning. If you win, they can overlook a lot.

The problem for that cohort is that the markets are tanking, output has dropped like a stone and all on Trump's watch. It's all very well being able to get your snout in the trough, but when the trough is empty, it's very hard to ignore the reason for it being empty. Some are so compromised though, that they're inexorably tied to Trump's success at the next election.

MaybeMaybe

Deleted User wrote: »

I really do find it all hard to believe.

Trump strikes me as exactly the type of person I would have thought Republicans and Conservatives would have a real problem with in politics based on decades of their rhetoric and yet he is an almost religious figure to them.

If you had stopped me in 2014 and told me not only that Trump would be elected in 2016 but that despite a massive list of serious crimes and major embarrassments that he would be reelected in 2020 I would flat out refuse to believe you. It simply wouldn't be credible and yet here we are.

Maybe America is just turning it's true face to the world, but it feels like they've succumbed to brainwashing and fundamentalism in large parts of the country. You really wouldn't know what kind of an America the world would be dealing with if Trump won another 4 years.

Trump and McConnell are getting Republicans exactly what they want, control of the courts, particularly the Supreme court. Anyone who does that is exactly what they want. That way they could eventually make abortion and same sex marriage illegal again. It's only a matter of time before they try.