Off Topic Thread 5.0

bilston

Richie_Rich89 wrote: »

Not sure all this fuss about a new year supposedly starting makes sense. Picking one day and saying it's the start of a a new orbit around the sun seems incredibly arbitrary.

It should be something like 18th February...absolutely nothing happens in February (well with one very obvious rugby exception)

Podge_irl

bilston wrote: »

It should be something like 18th February...absolutely nothing happens in February (well with one very obvious rugby exception)

I’m genuinely not sure I could deal with the start of the 6N not happening after everything else. As an ex-pat (/immigrant) I love Christmas but 6N time is a super close second.

errlloyd

Just a quick reminder that regardless of how your external situations have changed, the chances are that you (whoever you are) are much stronger now than you were this time last year. 2020 genuinely was the most challenging year many of us have ever faced. Even if you were insulated from the pandemic, the BLM movement, the US election, and Brexit. You still probably had to deal with all of the emotions these things drove. The hardest experiences teach us the most.

And, as always, thanks for being such a sound community and outlet.

Zzippy

Neil3030 wrote: »

And no guarantee they'll get into the EU either

It would be a formality. Their exclusive economic zone is huge and has some of the richest fishing in the North Atlantic. Not to mention the "f*ck you" it would be to London from the rest of the EU.

irishbucsfan

Zzippy wrote: »

It would be a formality. Their exclusive economic zone is huge and has some of the richest fishing in the North Atlantic. Not to mention the "f*ck you" it would be to London from the rest of the EU.

I think it would be about as much of a formality as Leave promised it would be for the UK to leave the EU. Loads of complexity and politics to be navigated there.

irishbucsfan

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I think it would be about as much of a formality as Leave promised it would be for the UK to leave the EU. Loads of complexity and politics to be navigated there.

Hard to say either way but Scotland being in the unique position of having been a recent member and having maintained regulatory alignment for decades previously would surely have a positive impact on them re-joining.

And there has been a lot of positive noise coming from within the EU executive of late so I suspect they could well be treated as a special case.

And as zZippy pointed out - Brexit and it's main supporters have been championing the decline of the EU for some time now, the failure of that to materialise has left the door open for a bit of a lesson to be made of England's extreme political failings since 2016. Scotland becoming an independent member state would be about as strong a message that could be sent of the folly of short term nationalist populist politics.

irishbucsfan

Deleted User wrote: »

Hard to say either way but Scotland being in the unique position of having been a recent member and having maintained regulatory alignment for decades previously would surely have a positive impact on them re-joining.

And there has been a lot of positive noise coming from within the EU executive of late so I suspect they could well be treated as a special case.

And as zZippy pointed out - Brexit and it's main supporters have been championing the decline of the EU for some time now, the failure of that to materialise has left the door open for a bit of a lesson to be made of England's extreme political failings since 2016. Scotland becoming an independent member state would be about as strong a message that could be sent of the folly of short term nationalist populist politics.

The majority of people across the EU couldn't care less about what nationalists in the UK think about the EU's prospects. Teaching them a lesson couldn't be less important to the EU, that group of people are just totally irrelevant. The only relevance they have to the EU (outside of Ireland of course) is that they fly down to the Southern economies and spend all their cash there, and hopefully will keep doing that.

Scotland would leave the UK under a transition deal, they'll need to do that in order to be able to set up things like their own government, have a constitutional convention, decide on their monetary policy etc. that would be 2-3 years.

If they are lucky, they'll be allowed to apply for EU membership with the permission of the UK during that period. If the UK doesn't want to play along (and I don't see why they would), then they would need to wait for the end of that transition period to apply. From that date it will be years before Scotland get membership of the EU. They'd be doing well to get it done in 4 years from that date.

They would need to negotiate absolutely everything from scratch, and they would be asking for quite favourable terms. For example they would absolutely want to retain membership of the Common Travel Area with us and the UK. Then there are also things which will come out of their negotiations to leave the UK (Trident for example?).

Then there are red line issues that the EU have for all new member states that Scotland will absolutely not want to go along with, for example they would be asked to join the eurozone (which they absolutely will not) and they will be asked to join Schengen (which would pose big problems for the CTA). All of that would need to be negotiated and will be extremely unpopular with newer European states.

Imagine being Bulgaria, at the edge of the Schengen zone during a refugee crisis, and having your monetary policy become almost impossible to maintain for a decade because you had to promise to eventually sacrifice your currency, just for a newly formed small state on the other side of the continent to waltz past you while they skip the Schengen zone and retain a currency that is controlled by a central bank that is outside the EU, let alone the eurozone. Meanwhile, your neighbour in Serbia is doing everything right, and their joining would have immediate benefits to your economy. Are you and your neighbours going to agree to slow the current process to accede the Western Balkans to the EU to start focusing on Scotland? Absolutely not. They'll fight for their interests.

If there is a referendum next year, and Scotland votes yes, they would be doing well to be a member state by 2030 in my opinion. I think it would be great for them and us if they could magically join sooner than that, but I don't think its possible.

Neil3030

Yeah 10 years is about the going rate for negotiating EU membership it seems.

But I reckon the main political risk facing Scotland would come from Spain not wanting to give any ideas to Catalonia / The Basque Country. Or possibly even Belgium and Flanders.

Paul Smeenus

Neil3030 wrote: »

Yeah 10 years is about the going rate for negotiating EU membership it seems.

But I reckon the main political risk facing Scotland would come from Spain not wanting to give any ideas to Catalonia / The Basque Country. Or possibly even Belgium and Flanders.

One of my mate's worked with the Scottish government during the independence referendum. Half of the best legal minds in Europe were telling them Scotland could go straight into the EU, half were telling them it would be back of the queue.

If there's no precedent, you're literally making it up as you go along. But the govt were very aware of the Spanish issue. Which is a very real problem for the Scots.

Neil3030

"OK Spain, let's cut to the chase. How much fish are we talking here..."

irishbucsfan

Paul Smeenus wrote: »

One of my mate's worked with the Scottish government during the independence referendum. Half of the best legal minds in Europe were telling them Scotland could go straight into the EU, half were telling them it would be back of the queue.

If there's no precedent, you're literally making it up as you go along. But the govt were very aware of the Spanish issue. Which is a very real problem for the Scots.

There's no precedent to set any more, as of 11pm last night.

There IS precedence for an application from a state which has seceded from a non-member state. That's Montenegro. They started negotiations when they got their independence, and both them and Serbia are still waiting on EU membership 15 years later.

jacothelad

Zzippy wrote: »

It would be a formality. Their exclusive economic zone is huge and has some of the richest fishing in the North Atlantic. Not to mention the "f*ck you" it would be to London from the rest of the EU.

There are huge economic pitfalls for Scotland ahead if the vote is to leave. Each year Scotland requires over £15,000,000,000 above it's income from basically the English taxpayer just to keep functioning. Someone above mentioned they considered Scotland to be governed efficiently. I now reside in the Highland region. I can assure you that the SNP are shockingly inefficient and live on self-congratulatory propaganda. They are really crap. Consider that 80% of Scotland's exports goes to England. Given the petty and racist nature of Blobby and his crew, I would bet that any settlement will be vindictive in the extreme. Scotland's 2 biggest employers are British Military establishments. They will go south making about 30,000 redundancies almost immediately. Also Scotland is responsible for 8% of the U.K.s national debt. They will be so far away from fitting the rules of EU entry over this alone is a huge stumbling block. Also, there are a large number of Scots who live in other parts of the UK. They also may be given a vote in any referendum.

Podge_irl

errlloyd wrote: »

Just a quick reminder that regardless of how your external situations have changed, the chances are that you (whoever you are) are much stronger now than you were this time last year. 2020 genuinely was the most challenging year many of us have ever faced. Even if you were insulated from the pandemic, the BLM movement, the US election, and Brexit. You still probably had to deal with all of the emotions these things drove. The hardest experiences teach us the most.

And, as always, thanks for being such a sound community and outlet.

And fatter.

irishbucsfan

Podge_irl wrote: »

And fatter.

I lost a ton of weight this year. No rugby, no buying lunch every day at random cafes around the office. No Guinness.

Can’t wait to put it all back on

Podge_irl

irishbucsfan wrote: »

I lost a ton of weight this year. No rugby, no buying lunch every day at random cafes around the office. No Guinness.

Can’t wait to put it all back on

I was doing well over the summer, when I was out cycling a lot just for something to do. But pretty much lost the will/drive once the ****ty weather kicked in and have been mostly sat on my arse the last few months.

mfceiling

Podge_irl wrote: »

I was doing well over the summer, when I was out cycling a lot just for something to do. But pretty much lost the will/drive once the ****ty weather kicked in and have been mostly sat on my arse the last few months.

I was trying to lose a stone by the end of 2020 and by the last week I only had 2 stone to go.

awec

I think I've put on 1 or 2kg which is the first time I've gained weight in about 15 years!

Stheno

mfceiling wrote: »

I was trying to lose a stone by the end of 2020 and by the last week I only had 2 stone to go.

I've lost over a stone this year

You may have found it

Burkie1203

awec wrote: »

I think I've put on 1 or 2kg which is the first time I've gained weight in about 15 years!

Fat or muscle?

awec

Burkie1203 wrote: »

Fat or muscle?

It's almost certainly from beer, so I'm going to go with fat.

molloyjh

awec wrote: »

It's almost certainly from beer, so I'm going to go with fat.

Wait, you don't gain muscle from beer? Well that explains a lot.....

connemara man

I lost somewhere between 8&10 stone this year,
I was well north of 22 stone last year and I'm 14 something for the first time in 10 years the past couple of weeks

Neil3030

Lost ~5kg, mostly muscle though, since I haven't been to a gym since January.

On the plus side, should be some decent noob gains to pack back on when things return to normal.

Paul Weller

connemara man wrote: »

I lost somewhere between 8&10 stone this year,
I was well north of 22 stone last year and I'm 14 something for the first time in 10 years the past couple of weeks

Jesus. That's some weight loss, well done!

connemara man

Paul Weller wrote: »

Jesus. That's some weight loss, well done!

And I haven't done a bit of exercise

Neil3030

Amputation?

connemara man

Neil3030 wrote: »

Amputation?

Weightloss in the main will always be 70-30 diet over exercise.
The main thing I've done is eat less. And by that I mean portion control no big dinner plates (10inches) everything is on lunch plates (8inches)
When I was working in an office I started bringing my own food. I have feck all will power for just picking up trash so did what I could to stop myself relying on it. Working from home meant I was not driving as much but that meant I wasn't going to petrol stations and picking up crap ( I'd define myself as a secret snacker)
The food I eat hasn't changed bthat much but I'm eating easily 50-60% of the calories I was this time last year

stephen_n

connemara man wrote: »

Weightloss in the main will always be 70-30 diet over exercise.
The main thing I've done is eat less. And by that I mean portion control no big dinner plates (10inches) everything is on lunch plates (8inches)
When I was working in an office I started bringing my own food. I have feck all will power for just picking up trash so did what I could to stop myself relying on it. Working from home meant I was not driving as much but that meant I wasn't going to petrol stations and picking up crap ( I'd define myself as a secret snacker)
The food I eat hasn't changed bthat much but I'm eating easily 50-60% of the calories I was this time last year

The Twinkie theory. It really doesn’t matter what you eat, if your calories are in deficit, you will lose weight.

Well done, that kind of weight loss must be incredible. 50kgs is like carrying a small person around all day every day. Do you notice an improvement in your energy levels?

connemara man

stephen_n wrote: »

The Twinkie theory. It really doesn’t matter what you eat, if your calories are in deficit, you will lose weight.

Well done, that kind of weight loss must be incredible. 50kgs is like carrying a small person around all day every day. Do you notice an improvement in your energy levels?

I've lost my niece's weight.
Yeah I feel it in a basic level just doing jobs around the house, easier to sleep and wake up. Stupid stuff would get me out of breath now it doesn't and I recover from most activities quicker.

There's a history of heart issues in my family so I had to give myself the best chance in life. My fiancé deserves most of the credit for the Kickstart of it, she was getting panic attacks at the thought of me dropping dead so we came up with this. I like to talk in terms of healthier now weight lost. That way hopefully I don't fall into bad habits again. As weight loss feels goal orientated but healthier is more holistic. Like I'd like to lose more weight but I now want to get fitter so my goals are fitness oriented now not weight, but I'll more than likely lose weight by adding exercise

stephen_n

connemara man wrote: »

I've lost my niece's weight.
Yeah I feel it in a basic level just doing jobs around the house, easier to sleep and wake up. Stupid stuff would get me out of breath now it doesn't and I recover from most activities quicker.

There's a history of heart issues in my family so I had to give myself the best chance in life. My fiancé deserves most of the credit for the Kickstart of it, she was getting panic attacks at the thought of me dropping dead so we came up with this. I like to talk in terms of healthier now weight lost. That way hopefully I don't fall into bad habits again. As weight loss feels goal orientated but healthier is more holistic. Like I'd like to lose more weight but I now want to get fitter so my goals are fitness oriented now not weight, but I'll more than likely lose weight by adding exercise

That’s a great way to look at it. Weight loss and chasing it usually ends up in cycles. Focusing on feeling better and healthier is more sustainable I believe. You might not lose weight by exercising, there was a very good article in the Times yesterday about that. You need to burn about 3000 calories a week through exercise to lose weight. That’s about the equivalent of walking for an hour a day, 6 days a week. Even at that the weight loss is not huge. Thing about it is though you will probably feel a lot better in yourself when you start to move more and create more dopamine.