Off Topic Thread 5.0

CatFromHue

Dave_The_Sheep wrote: »

We got down to double (sometimes single) digit figures back in May after the initial lockdown. During the November one, we were still in triple digit figures and often above 200. I don't think you can really compare the two, one was more successful and it wasn't the November one. Now of course, that's not down to businesses, I'm not saying it is. I'm saying it's part of it. Of course household and school transmissions are higher. But everything plays it's part.

The thing is, household transmissions cannot be controlled. We can't stop people visiting each other in homes without massive buy in from the population (which I can't see us getting - maybe unless people are scared sh*tless). We can try control the spread in businesses, be they shops and pubs etc. And people have to get Covid somewhere for them to bring it to a household - let's try limit the places they can do that.



I don't think track and trace is accurate enough (definitely not these days as they're getting pummelled) to say where the cases are coming from. Like, if someone goes to the shops or a kid goes to school, gets Covid and then goes home and spreads it to their family, that's a household case? Nah. That's caused directly by going to the shop or school. But it wasn't being recorded like that.

I do think we need a March style lockdown though - which includes closing all non-essential businesses but also schools for a while at least (given the new version). The reason I brought up business was that it wasn't really being discussed on the thread and I thought it relevant. I don't think they're the primary driver, but they're definitely a large part of it (again, more contagious strain has to be taken into account here).

They're a part but I'm not sure if they're a large part. You're right on the track and trace, when the daily numbers go above a certain level they're over whelmed and we went over that number before Christmas.

What I think worked so well in March was that no one visited other people's houses.

From the HSE website

Close contact can mean:

spending more than 15 minutes of face-to-face contact within 2 metres of someone who has COVID-19, indoors or outdoors

living in the same house or shared accommodation as someone who has COVID-19

sitting within 2 seats of someone who has COVID-19 on public transport or an airplane

Spending more than 2 hours in an indoor space with someone who has COVID-19 will sometimes count as close or casual contact. This could be an office or a classroom. But it will depend on the size of the room and other factors.

The first one just doesn't happen in retail for the customer, and can be managed for the staff.

Again I don't know if I'm talking bollix but I do think it's a problem if this stuff isn't being asked. Think about how cases has come for staff or customers in essential retail for example.

swiwi_

Dubinusa wrote: »

100 plus co workers have tested positive for covid. I've been tested 4 times since mid November. My daughter has it now. It's a crapstorm. It really has dampened our way of life. It's destroyed businesses and people are suffering. People are dying! It's awful. Stay safe everyone.

Lucky your favourite president has been doing a sterling job. Really being proactive despite the disappointment of conceding the election and tweeting his support for democratic processes.

CatFromHue

irishbucsfan wrote: »

How do you think the virus is getting into private houses?

I don't know. I would guess that it's from mixing in households with others who have it.

What I do know is the numbers of people working in supermarkets who got it, and the number of cluster there, are very small. Tiny in comparison to those who got it in private homes.

Stheno

CatFromHue wrote: »

They're a part but I'm not sure if they're a large part. You're right on the track and trace, when the daily numbers go above a certain level they're over whelmed and we went over that number before Christmas.

What I think worked so well in March was that no one visited other people's houses.

From the HSE website



The first one just doesn't happen in retail for the customer, and can be managed for the staff.

Again I don't know if I'm talking bollix but I do think it's a problem if this stuff isn't being asked. Think about how cases has come for staff or customers in essential retail for example.

I feel that a large part of the problem is the messaging from NPHET and the government is not consistent

I think either just before or just after Christmas the NPHET were saying not to visit other households while the guidelines said you could

Then we'd pretty much every minister from Leo to Michael to Stephen repeatedly come out and say non essential retail did not significantly impact spread and then do a upturn by shutting everything down

I find the lack of consistency frustrating

The messaging was much clearer with the previous government imo

irishbucsfan

CatFromHue wrote: »

I don't know. I would guess that it's from mixing in households with others who have it.

What I do know is the numbers of people working in supermarkets who got it, and the number of cluster there, are very small. Tiny in comparison to those who got it in private homes.

The virus doesn't grow on the walls of houses. If there's an outbreak in a private house (and these are statistics for outbreaks) then the source of that infection was outside the house.

There's no test that can tell anyone where they got the virus, even if it was in a supermarket they'll almost certainly never know that. Community transmission of the virus is around 30-35%

molloyjh

These questions have been asked. Loads of times. The answer has been pretty simple.

1. We are not actively tracing back cases to any great degree. So if I pick it up from my wife then its household transmission. But she could have picked it up in a pub or a restaurant (if we were so inclined to go when they were open!). Unless there were a cluster of cases in that pub/restaurant, her source may have simply been classified as community transmission. They have too much to do keeping ahead of onward transmission to be worrying about back tracing it to any real degree. Plus, in the above hypothetical scenario, the pub/restaurant isn't just the source of my wife's infection, it's the source of mine too. At least indirectly.

2. The experts know a certain amount about this virus. The environments in which it thrives and is at its most dangerous being one of those things they know. So in your local Tesco, chances are everyone there is masked up. They are in there for a relatively short period. They are not directly engaging with people there or having long conversations with people there. The shop itself is likely to be quite open, with high ceilings etc allowing for wider dispersal of any virus in the air, thus reducing the risk of you being exposed to enough of the virus to contract it. However in a small restaurant with low ceilings, where you are going to be in the same spot for a prolonged period without a mask and directly engaging with others or being relatively close to others for that period of time, the risk level is far, far higher.

3. Everyone has been told again and again and again and again to limit their contacts as much as possible. When things have gotten worse we have seen some serious restrictions on our movements to try and reduce as much as possible our ability to visit other households etc. This is about as much as can be done in this regard as we can't police every single home in the country. But the idea that businesses are being "blamed" is somewhat disingenuous. The authorities have done everything they can to limit both businesses and individuals. The disproportion isn't how they are choosing to treat the two. The dispropirtion is in how they can treat the two.

Neil3030

We need social interaction.

I saw a group of ~6 people in a park today, nicely distanced, wearing warm clothes, drinking wine around a large tree stump. That's how you do it.

I also zoomed my friend on Christmas day - he was indoors at a house party, right beside our other friend who I know is a diabetic. That's how you don't do it.

Somewhat linked to Molloy's post above, I feel the narrative of Government/NPHET vs businesses is the wrong one. More businesses would be open if people made better decisions about how they behave, and in particular, socialize.

sydthebeat

Nphets only real enforcement power is to close down businesses.

If people did as they were told (stay at home, don't visit, only do essential purchases and go prepared etc etc) then we could actually have a lot of these businesses open as the risks therein are so much less than in your own home.

However the majority people arent doing / won't do as they should..... At least up to now anyway.

Hopefully January, colder weather, with fcuk all to do, will be the circuit break we need on this latest wave

OldRio

Nearly 5 thousand cases today. Good grief.

awec

OldRio wrote: »

Nearly 5 thousand cases today. Good grief.

That'll be an accumulation of many days in reality. We may see a few days like this and then drops back to the ~2k mark pretty quick once the backlog clears.

ClanofLams

Rise in hospital admissions (hospital numbers almost trebled in last month) and icu admissions (icu numbers more than doubled in last month) is the concerning part. Hospitality opening up obviously a factor but would be interest in seeing airport numbers for December, anecdotally seems to me many more people travelled than any other month since March.

Restriction fatigue seems to have finally set in in, in fairness to Irish people a lot later here than most countries. Even in the last few days though, I’m seeing/hearing a lot more “I’ll go where I want and use common sense” type of talk than previously.

Need to implement severe restrictions now, appeal to people that we are on the home stretch etc.

The Inbetween is mine

awec wrote: »

That'll be an accumulation of many days in reality. We may see a few days like this and then drops back to the ~2k mark pretty quick once the backlog clears.

Perhaps not..


"A mounting backlog in confirming new cases of Covid-19 in Ireland is disguising the “frankly terrifying” real number of infections, one researcher has warned.

Speaking to the Irish Times, Dr Elaine Doyle, a writer and former academic whose social media posts comparing the outbreak in the Republic and the UK went viral online, said headline figures on coronavirus are giving the public a “completely wrong idea”.

Just how quickly the virus is spreading through the country is “beyond our worst nightmares” with actual figures likely more than double the official tally, she said."

sydthebeat

The Inbetween is mine wrote: »

Perhaps not..


"A mounting backlog in confirming new cases of Covid-19 in Ireland is disguising the “frankly terrifying” real number of infections, one researcher has warned.

Speaking to the Irish Times, Dr Elaine Doyle, a writer and former academic whose social media posts comparing the outbreak in the Republic and the UK went viral online, said headline figures on coronavirus are giving the public a “completely wrong idea”.

Just how quickly the virus is spreading through the country is “beyond our worst nightmares” with actual figures likely more than double the official tally, she said."

of course it is....
we are only testing symptomatic, referred people right now

the asymptomatic carriers and close contacts arent being tested.

Thats why we are all being told to stay at home and act as we we have it.

errlloyd

+ 1 on fatigue. My friends are incredibly compliant people. Mostly young pros. Mostly live in comfortable situations where it is relatively easy to comply. Most are fairly pro government politically etc. In the first lockdown ardent compliance was a badge of honour in our social sphere.

Now they don't have a problem Instagraming pics from outside their 5k. Or inviting one person around for a pint.

Stheno

errlloyd wrote: »

+ 1 on fatigue. My friends are incredibly compliant people. Mostly young pros. Mostly live in comfortable situations where it is relatively easy to comply. Most are fairly pro government politically etc. In the first lockdown ardent compliance was a badge of honour in our social sphere.

Now they don't have a problem Instagraming pics from outside their 5k. Or inviting one person around for a pint.

Is it because they have the "i didn't get it so far, and it doesn't affect.young people badly" mindset or are they just sick to the back teeth of it and willing to take a chance?

molloyjh

Stheno wrote: »

Is it because they have the "i didn't get it so far, and it doesn't affect.young people badly" mindset or are they just sick to the back teeth of it and willing to take a chance?

I'd say a lot of people think they are using common sense and are behaving responsibly. The big problem is that they are probably looking at it on an individual level as opposed to on a cumulative level. Small risk by one person meeting small risk by another person can very, very easily become a large risk by virtue of the combined series of risky behaviours

Stheno

molloyjh wrote: »

I'd say a lot of people think they are using common sense and are behaving responsibly. The big problem is that they are probably looking at it on an individual level as opposed to on a cumulative level. Small risk by one person meeting small risk by another person can very, very easily become a large risk by virtue of the combined series of risky behaviours

Possibly.

My Oh is late 50s and is very wary about the virus

His daughter in her twenties wanted to meet up in our house for a meal the day after Stephens day for Christmas, after she met friends, had Christmas Dinner with extended family and then met more friends Stephens day

She's been somewhat compliant, but that seems to have gone out the window over Christmas anyway

She was far more compliant six months ago

molloyjh

Stheno wrote: »

Possibly.

My Oh is late 50s and is very wary about the virus

His daughter in her twenties wanted to meet up in our house for a meal the day after Stephens day for Christmas, after she met friends, had Christmas Dinner with extended family and then met more friends Stephens day

She's been somewhat compliant, but that seems to have gone out the window over Christmas anyway

She was far more compliant six months ago

Plenty of people were doing that sort of thing over Christmas unfortunately. We went to my in-laws and my parents and that was it. Refused to meet up with others who were looking to. But I think a lot of people saw Christmas as being a free pass and that's part of why we are where we are.

Stheno

molloyjh wrote: »

Plenty of people were doing that sort of thing over Christmas unfortunately. We went to my in-laws and my parents and that was it. Refused to meet up with others who were looking to. But I think a lot of people saw Christmas as being a free pass and that's part of why we are where we are.

Yeah myself and the Oh went out for a few meals on our own and met his son outside a couple of times

Didn't visit anyone in their homes nor have we had visitors, I've seven other siblings who live in the same town as my mother and they would all have visited so I just didn't want to take the risk.

Hopefully now Christmas is over things calm down quickly

Feel sorry for healthcare workers who have.to.deal with the fallout, im kinda hoping that with a very high % of cases this past week being less than 45, that it.somehow reduces hospitalisations

awec

I don't think Christmas itself is the problem, it was the week or 2 leading up to Christmas when people met friends etc.

Stheno

awec wrote: »

I don't think Christmas itself is the problem, it was the week or 2 leading up to Christmas when people met friends etc.

I think it was a combination of the two, people meeting friends and then travelling home

But look, its done. Means probably till at least end of Feb life will be **** but hopefully people will cop on

Burkie1203

awec wrote: »

I don't think Christmas itself is the problem, it was the week or 2 leading up to Christmas when people met friends etc.

One of my neighbours had a marquee in their back garden for 3 o4 days. They weren't alone as I've seen several posts on SM regarding same thing. We are yet to see the impact of xmas. That will be this time next week

awec

Burkie1203 wrote: »

One of my neighbours had a marquee in their back garden for 3 o4 days. They weren't alone as I've seen several posts on SM regarding same thing. We are yet to see the impact of xmas. That will be this time next week

Nah you're already seeing the impact of Christmas now. The average incubation period is 5 days.

Burkie1203

awec wrote: »

Nah you're already seeing the impact of Christmas now. The average incubation period is 5 days.

Yeah but the knock on effect of transmission from People who haven't self isolated as a close contact and are asymptomatic and who will inevitably have gone back to work this week and tmrw is still to filter through

I know one person who is arguing with their boss tonight about why they shouldn't be forced into their office tmrw morning.

errlloyd

Stheno wrote: »

Is it because they have the "i didn't get it so far, and it doesn't affect.young people badly" mindset or are they just sick to the back teeth of it and willing to take a chance?

I have a long answer to this. It is a thesis I have been mulling over since June. All of you are free to rip it to pieces if you feel like it. I have three concepts.

1. Ireland relied completely on social enforcement/peer pressure.
2. Our peer groups also became much smaller.
3. Compliance therefore ended up being drastly inconsistent.

So firstly - social compliance. With no actual Gardai enforcement beyond soft policing, the number 1 enforcement seemed to be civic duty driven by peer pressure. You could always lie to the Gardai if you needed to, in fact you still can. Businesses were largely allowed to self-determine if they were essential or not, and if they were deemed essential they weren't forced to justify which staff were essential, they could basically allow anyone in. The GOVT advised people to restrict contacts, but didn't actually do any of the enforcing we saw elsewhere. Mask wearing on streets, designating each person one super market, allocating excercise times etc were all brought in elsewhere and not here.

At the same time our peer groups became much much smaller. Maybe they ended up being whatever friends happened to live close to you, plus your family, and whoever happened to be in your first 3 zoom parties or whatever. Many people completely lost casual social contact with strangers, coworkers, and friends of friends. As such the actual sample of compliance we were seeing became much less representative of the population as a whole and much more influencable. I have maybe 15 people I have kept close during this pandemic. They all complied to an extremely high level, and that put pressure on me to maintain that level of compliance. But it only took one or two them to begin to talk about "sure we're gonna go to Wicklow for a walk - but we will use precautions" (and then sharing a car) before that whole group of 15 began to relax.
I am confident this smaller peer group thing has been more influential than people think because of observations on social media and while travelling this summer. I found some towns that were otherwise similar had vastly different attitudes. My conclusion was that as the people of those towns had stuck to themselves and no one knew what was normal beyond their own peer group. Each town was following the lead of whatever the first business to act was. Some were very compliant, some were not so. On social media every time a quasi outrageous picture of people not social distancing was posted the comments underneath were always the same, people very confidently saying their friend groups had all been cocooning for months, some people very confidently saying the opposite etc etc etc. People having different perspectives is not new, but people who seemed to be otherwise comparable in terms of age / part of the country lived in / rough guess of background etc did have differing experiences.

This for me has lead compliance to end up being inconsistent. I sort of pursued this a little to reach beyond my covid core group and talk to others. And I have found massively different attitudes among otherwise similar people - but (and this is the important part) they ALL think that their perspective and that of their peers is reflective of society as a whole.

My message for a while has been that with communication so much more fragmented than it was pre-lockdown, it is much harder for an individual to get a read on the pulse of society.

sydthebeat

^
That's pretty much the definition of "lockdown fatigue"

Add into that the fact the first lockdown was leading into summer, with brighter evenings and warmer days, it wasn't actually that bad really environmentally.

Since golf gate / vaccine progress Et Al plus all the stretching of all the various definitions to breaking point, people just had enough..... To the point of selfishness

sydthebeat

Watching "American made" on 4 tonight

What a mental story!

Dubinusa

swiwi_ wrote: »

Lucky your favourite president has been doing a sterling job. Really being proactive despite the disappointment of conceding the election and tweeting his support for democratic processes.

Lol. Nobody is doing a good job. It's unprecedented. This virus is mutating and I see western Europe is a mess. The US are rolling out a sars derivative vaccine? How is this going to work? Most medications are tested and researched for many years before being approved. This vaccine is ... 8 months of research!!! It's so frustrating, a friend died xmass nite. An old dear from Dingle.
Do we lock everything down? Is that possible? I'm lost for an answer.

molloyjh

Dubinusa wrote: »

Lol. Nobody is doing a good job. It's unprecedented. This virus is mutating and I see western Europe is a mess. The US are rolling out a sars derivative vaccine? How is this going to work? Most medications are tested and researched for many years before being approved. This vaccine is ... 8 months of research!!! It's so frustrating, a friend died xmass nite. An old dear from Dingle.
Do we lock everything down? Is that possible? I'm lost for an answer.

Sorry to hear about your friend. There isn't really a singular right answer though IMO. Theres a balance to be struck between trying to limit the spread of the virus and, well, everything else. Where that line is to people will differ from person to person depending on what they value and how much. And that's not a "you horrible person being okay with sacrificing people for money" type thing. Each of us will be in different stages of our lives with different types of dependencies and dependents. We are all going to be naturally biased by those things. It means though that there is no definitive right answer here. Just varying ways of balancing the variables.

That said, Trump has been the worst leader in the Western world for this. And I include Boris in that. He has blood on his hands simply because he refused to take the thing seriously enough from the beginning. Hell, he continued to refuse to take it seriously enough and pedalled all sorts of BS and misinformation about it the whole way through this pandemic. He has been an utter disgrace, to the surprise of very, very few.

Dubinusa

molloyjh wrote: »

Sorry to hear about your friend. There isn't really a singular right answer though IMO. Theres a balance to be struck between trying to limit the spread of the virus and, well, everything else. Where that line is to people will differ from person to person depending on what they value and how much. And that's not a "you horrible person being okay with sacrificing people for money" type thing. Each of us will be in different stages of our lives with different types of dependencies and dependents. We are all going to be naturally biased by those things. It means though that there is no definitive right answer here. Just varying ways of balancing the variables.

That said, Trump has been the worst leader in the Western world for this. And I include Boris in that. He has blood on his hands simply because he refused to take the thing seriously enough from the beginning. Hell, he continued to refuse to take it seriously enough and pedalled all sorts of BS and misinformation about it the whole way through this pandemic. He has been an utter disgrace, to the surprise of very, very few.

Trump is an idiot. No doubt. But nobody was ready for this. Clearly, this is a scenario that not to many envisioned. As this virus mutates and spreads more, who will really find a way through? It's a global event and I think when the numbers come in from places like India, Bangladesh and other nations it will boggle the mind. Suppose the vaccine fails to work against mutant strains?

On a side note, my daughter has the virus. She got it at work, she works at a hospital. She is doing well, isolating as best she can and believe it or not, running on the treadmill. I believe that younger people are not as vulnerable as us older geezers.

I do think when this is done and dusted, that a different virus will come and cause similar mayhem.