Off Topic Thread 5.0

Zzippy

I've been on the cautious side all along, health conditions meant we cocooned a lot more than most, but even I think this is getting ridiculous now. The "grim and sobering" modelling presented by NPHET (out of the blue) is not compatible with the experience from other countries with similar vaccination numbers and where Delta is already dominant. It doesn't affect me in the slightest as we wouldn't get a babysitter anyway to mind our 3, so not like I'd be going out for dinner, but I know a lot of people working in tourism and hospitality - this is a real gut punch to them.

Former Former Former

Bridge93 wrote: »

Philip Nolan, our supposed best statistician, is either grossly incompetent with that latest model, or flat out lying to the population. Honestly, how can they expect anyone to swallow that rubbish about 700k cases in a few months and over 2k deaths? It would be hilarious if it wasn’t quite literally destroying lives

It's a worst case scenario and that will always grab the headlines.

The best case, also presented to government, is for 81,000 cases and 165 deaths. That's about double the cases we're running at now but about a tenth of the worst case.

This is what their job is. Present the different possibilities to government and let them make the call.

The last time the government caved to pressure from the vintners to reopen, it didn't 'literally destroy lives', it literally (in the actual sense of literally) killed hundreds of people.

Squidgy Black

The media handling has been insane lately. Over the last week or two it's been "there won't be a delay to the reopening", or "we don't invision any way the reopening will be delayed" to now, yep it's almost confirmed we'll be delaying it.

Bridge93

Former Former Former wrote: »

It's a worst case scenario and that will always grab the headlines.

The best case, also presented to government, is for 81,000 cases and 165 deaths. That's about double the cases we're running at now.

This is what their job is. Present the different possibilities to government and let them make the call.

The last time the government caved to pressure from the vintners to reopen, it didn't 'literally destroy lives', it literally (in the actual sense of literally) killed hundreds of people.

Right you’re one of those comparing it to Christmas again. Useless waste of time. It’s not worst case scenario it’s is completely rubbish and not even the remotest of possibilities.

Why are we the only country on the continent still hiding from this? Living with covid or whatever they called their plan last September was some load of nonsense

Shaka Hislop

No vaccine, no pubs is the gist going forward

sydthebeat

https://twitter.com/davidmurphyRTE/status/1409851716133175296

the rest of 2021 is written off lads....

get onto the web and book your holidays abroad now

aloooof

Bridge93 wrote: »

Right you’re one of those comparing it to Christmas again. Useless waste of time. It’s not worst case scenario it’s is completely rubbish and not even the remotest of possibilities.

Why are we the only country on the continent still hiding from this? Living with covid or whatever they called their plan last September was some load of nonsense

As an aside, it's worth noting that what played out at Christmas far exceeded their worst case models for that time.

Obviously, the vaccination picture should dramatically change things now (and while I've leaned on the cautious side, I do agree things too stringent at the moment) but personally I'm not going to claim absolutes such as the above when I'm not in the least bit qualified to do so.

molloyjh

Bridge93 wrote: »

Right you’re one of those comparing it to Christmas again. Useless waste of time. It’s not worst case scenario it’s is completely rubbish and not even the remotest of possibilities.

Why are we the only country on the continent still hiding from this? Living with covid or whatever they called their plan last September was some load of nonsense

I'm sure you can back up your assertions with a strong evidence based case through your extensive knowledge and/or research into the subject, yeah?

I get people being pissed off about it and all that, but calling it nonsense or lies is a bit much. Who exactly are any of us to say that? The term "back in your lane" really needs to be used a lot more these days.

irishbucsfan

Bridge93 wrote: »

Philip Nolan, our supposed best statistician, is either grossly incompetent with that latest model, or flat out lying to the population. Honestly, how can they expect anyone to swallow that rubbish about 700k cases in a few months and over 2k deaths? It would be hilarious if it wasn’t quite literally destroying lives

Because there are multiple models ranging from 21,000 cases to nearly 700k?

It clearly says that’s a pessimistic number, possibly assuming some sort of vaccine escape which is entirely possible unfortunately.

Wed be very lucky to hit the 21k number and extremely unlucky to hit the 700k number.

The central models do seem pessimistic but we haven’t seen a huge increase in cases yet from the variants and it’s be reasonable to predict that we could soon if we opened up in the same way as countries who have see recent increases. Portugal being a good example of a country who opened up before us and are now having to implement local restrictions again.

sydthebeat

https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/two-weekindoor-dining-delay-wont-make-a-substantial-difference-todelta-spread-saysinfectious-disease-expert-40585689.html

“We’re not going to be able to stay locked down forever, at some point we do need to test the waters. At some point we do need to see what works and what doesn’t work,” Prof Mallon said.

sorry Professor, a decision like that takes bravery.

The anti antigen policy from NPHET is looking more and more political with this decision today

awec

I don't believe that the vaccinated people being allowed thing will actually happen.

Feel sorry for those who keep getting shafted on this.

irishbucsfan

awec wrote: »

I don't believe that the vaccinated people being allowed thing will actually happen.

Feel sorry for those who keep getting shafted on this.

Only would have been possible if they’d started working towards that months ago.

By the time that’s possible it won’t be necessary I’d say

sydthebeat

irishbucsfan wrote: »

Only would have been possible if they’d started working towards that months ago.

By the time that’s possible it won’t be necessary I’d say

They could literally purchase a covid app licence off the shelf tomorrow if they wanted to.

my brother in law has been using this in Qatar for months already

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.moi.covid19&hl=en_IE&gl=US

I was initially surprised with the plan to open up to be honest, given the case numbers were stagnating at ~400. The hope was that the vaccine could counter-act opening up but it was always a risky balancing act. Not surprised at all at this news. Other countries are going through all sorts of issues too so I don't know what people are talking about saying we're over reacting or in a better/worse position. UK was supposed to open up further a few weeks back and pushed it back for example; they are much further ahead than us with vaccinating.

awec

You can't expect hospitality to police this, it's a total non runner IMO. They're just saying it to try and placate people somewhat, but it'll never happen.

FACECUTTR

awec wrote: »

I don't believe that the vaccinated people being allowed thing will actually happen.

Feel sorry for those who keep getting shafted on this.

It is just smoke and mirrors to get the 20s group vaccinated. Numbers of people in the 30-40 group refusing any vaccine getting larger each week. They needed an incentive to increase the uptake and hence the story that's being spouted.

FACECUTTR

FACECUTTR wrote: »

It is just smoke and mirrors to get the 20s group vaccinated. Numbers of people in the 30-40 group refusing any vaccine getting larger each week. They needed an incentive to increase the uptake and hence the story that's being spouted.

I reckon this is nonsense and stuff like this is the reason I asked for a ban from the covid forum :pac:

FACECUTTR

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I reckon this is nonsense and stuff like this is the reason I asked for a ban from the covid forum :pac:

Just delete your account

irishbucsfan

sydthebeat wrote: »

They could literally purchase a covid app licence off the shelf tomorrow if they wanted to.

my brother in law has been using this in Qatar for months already

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.moi.covid19&hl=en_IE&gl=US

It has to be backed by law though. Denmark are a good example I wish we’d followed mind you.

But its an extra month or two of reduced hospitality, not no hospitality. Outdoor hospitality during the two best months of the year. It’s not the end of the world. And by the end of August ourselves and the EU and most of the developed world will have achieved something fairly incredible in terms of the ridiculously huge undertaking that is the vaccination rollout. It’s hard and I think people lose context due to that, but it’s going in the right direction.

aloooof

The added carrot this time round too is that once things open, they will (in all likelihood) remain open.

prawnsambo

irishbucsfan wrote: »

It has to be backed by law though. Denmark are a good example I wish we’d followed mind you.

But its an extra month or two of reduced hospitality, not no hospitality. Outdoor hospitality during the two best months of the year. It’s not the end of the world. And by the end of August ourselves and the EU and most of the developed world will have achieved something fairly incredible in terms of the ridiculously huge undertaking that is the vaccination rollout. It’s hard and I think people lose context due to that, but it’s going in the right direction.

We're almost blasé about this now, but it's quite extraordinary. At the start, I looked into how long it normally takes and was just thinking we'd be lucky to have a vaccine program before 2023.

molloyjh

irishbucsfan wrote: »

It has to be backed by law though. Denmark are a good example I wish we’d followed mind you.

But its an extra month or two of reduced hospitality, not no hospitality. Outdoor hospitality during the two best months of the year. It’s not the end of the world. And by the end of August ourselves and the EU and most of the developed world will have achieved something fairly incredible in terms of the ridiculously huge undertaking that is the vaccination rollout. It’s hard and I think people lose context due to that, but it’s going in the right direction.

Yeah, we were at 31% fully vaccinated 2 weeks ago, with 61% having had their first jab. We seem to be averaging about 50-60k or so jabs a day at the moment too. So that's around 600-700k jabs since the last official update. Almost everyone who is being vaccinated for the first time at the moment will need a second jab within 4 weeks then that means that almost everyone of the 61% above should be fully vaccinated in the next 2 weeks. And almost everyone who got their shot in the last 2 weeks should be fully vaccinated in the next 3-4 weeks. By the end of July we should be in or around 70% fully vaccinated. That's pretty amazing when you think about it.

Ireland are far from the only country being conservative about this. Sydney has locked down for 2 weeks because of just over 100 cases being detected over a couple of weeks. What we're seeing in Delta is just how rapidly its spreading through unvaccinated populations. Who are those most likely to be in restaurants and pubs? Those in their 20s and 30s who are not yet vaccinated. It would be the perfect environment for Delta.

Neil3030

Well that's me avoiding all forms of English-speaking media for the next few decades anyway...

Podge_irl

Neil3030 wrote: »

Well that's me avoiding all forms of English-speaking media for the next few decades anyway...

Ironically, this has to be one of the most likeable English teams in a very long time and I have a lot of time for Southgate.

But any chance of warming to English football went the way of the dodo during the anthems.

awec

Muller

Teferi

It's coming home.

Neil3030

I'm taking no chances. English part of brain: off.

Conas atá gach duine?

Come stai tutti?

b.gud

Neil3030 wrote: »

Well that's me avoiding all forms of English-speaking media for the next few decades anyway...

Do I want to know why?

Teferi

Likeable team, likeable coach - I'll be cheering for them for the rest of the tournament.

Neil3030

Teferi wrote: »

Likeable team, likeable coach - I'll be cheering for them for the rest of the tournament.

Non ho capito