The Permanent Job Losses Thread

Plumbthedepths

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Long term it may be best for both the economy and society however as it will allow close to normal living (within the country) once 4 to 6 weeks are over. Go too soon and we will only be able to allow minor incremental relaxations with the high risk of returning to current status there for 9-12 months

Not sure of what I said you don't understand, a deep lockdown will not be happening. Already people are railing against the present lockdown. The state does not have the manpower or resources to impose what you are suggesting so it's a waste of time discussing it further.

Plumbthedepths

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Glad to know in between whoring himself out on TV left, right and centre, he had time to become an expert in economics.

He's not but I assume a person as educated as he is cannot be blind to the effects the lockdown is having on the economy plus only an idiot would believe a well funded health system can exist without a functioning economy.

Plumbthedepths

hmmm wrote: »

Based on the current models of how the disease progresses, you can't have both. You have to pick one.

We can choose to get cases very low now, and try and prevent the growth of new cases using contact tracing and testing. Or, we can stay at the current level, and accept that we will need repeated phases of opening and lockdowns.

The first option (the South Korean model) has only worked in a single country, although very successfully there, but it will only work if the number of cases are very low. We still have hundreds of new cases every day.

Yes we had 369 cases yesterday, 222 of which were in the care settings I have mentioned already.

kippy

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Professor McConkey during the week on Morning Ireland stated health and the economy cannot be pitted against each other. He stated wealth generation is necessary for health. You need a healthy economy to be able to pay for all the services we consume.
I find the disconnect people have from how important the economy is distrubing. Do people seriously believe the lack of funding for services after the financial crash didn't result in premature deaths?

I don't think there's a disconnect.
Most people realise that poorer countries have drasticilly worse health outcomes. Most people realise that this economic disaster is going to lead to hard decisions being required.
But most people also realise the alternatives that are on the table are far less palatible than the current situation.

Do people seriously beleive that the unrestricted spread of this virus GLOBALLY would have resulted in a less worse outcome than that currently?


Restrictions will get lifted on a phased basis and the economy both local and global will and has tanked - but there are options available to states to help create wealth and generate money. There are very few options available to states if this virus had run rampant.

GazzaL

GazzaL wrote: »

The hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Our ICUs are only at 33% capacity. We're paying €115m per month to keep private hospitals 75% empty. https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/calls-to-revisit-private-hospital-deal-as-beds-lying-empty-despite-115m-per-month-cost-to-taxpayer-996616.html

Yet, if the hospital beds weren’t there when mammy or granny got the virus, you’d be squealing even louder.

Plumbthedepths

This might make uncomfortable reading for some.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sweden-is-a-model-for-the-new-coronavirus-normal-says-who-dd8fgw7d0

hmmm

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Yes we had 369 cases yesterday, 222 of which were in the care settings I have mentioned already.

South Korea announced in mid April they were lifting some restrictions because they felt the numbers had become manageable. On that day they had 8 cases.

Plumbthedepths

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Not sure of what I said you don't understand, a deep lockdown will not be happening. Already people are railing against the present lockdown. The state does not have the manpower or resources to impose what you are suggesting so it's a waste of time discussing it further.

My point was not that I believe that will or can or even should happen, just that it is probably in the long term best interests of both society and the economy. Lock down to mid June and then return to almost normal with strict quarantine and testing / contact tracing. Or limp on for 12 months with strict social distancing, closed bars and low capacity restaurants with the risk that at any time at a few days notice we return to where we are now.

Plumbthedepths

hmmm wrote: »

South Korea announced in mid April they were lifting some restrictions because they felt the numbers had become manageable. On that day they had 8 cases.

What restrictions?

https://www.rte.ie/news/2020/0329/1127023-what-south-korea-can-teach-ireland/

GazzaL

Deleted User wrote: »

My point was not that I believe that will or can or even should happen, just that it is probably in the long term best interests of both society and the economy. Lock down to mid June and then return to almost normal with strict quarantine and testing / contact tracing. Or limp on for 12 months with strict social distancing, closed bars and low capacity restaurants with the risk that at any time at a few days notice we return to where we are now.

Normal goes out the window if we lock down until mid June. The places the do re-open will not be re-opening with full staff. The €350 a week will be gone, even €200 a week will be unaffordable given the numbers that will be in receipt of it. We might have to align with the North and reduce it to €83.50 a week.

We need to use social distancing, good hygiene, and get on with life. A reality check is in the post.

Plumbthedepths

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

This might make uncomfortable reading for some.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sweden-is-a-model-for-the-new-coronavirus-normal-says-who-dd8fgw7d0

This is what some Irish people do when in lockdown

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dublin-lord-mayor-hits-out-at-parties-where-social-distancing-had-gone-out-the-window-996371.html

Can you imagine what would happen when trusted to social distance - if only there was an example or two

https://www.irishpost.com/news/revellers-filmed-singing-dancing-arm-arm-packed-dublin-pub-despite-coronavirus-warnings-181646

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/racing/cheltenham-faces-criticism-after-racegoers-suffer-covid-19-symptoms-1.4219458

gp1990

People are living in cuckoo land if they think the economy will return to anywhere even remotely near where it was anytime before about 2022

I know of many business owners who were looking at next week or at least mid may as a chance to gradually re-ope the office with massive restrictions still in place and continue to encourage WFH as much as possible. However there has been lots of issues with staff being unable to connect remotely with poor rural broadband, meaning crucial meetings haven't happened, work isn't getting done and the extra workload is falling on others who have actually had paycuts, who are both frustrated and fatigued. By letting people into the office even an hour or two a week would make a massive difference

May will probably bring the most permanent job losses we've seen in a single month in our lifetimes. Anyone who thinks that these people can sit it out a few months on welfare are dreaming. What jobs will be there for them in a few months? Any line manager approaching their CFO looking for approval for a new hire will be laughed out of their office. Its cuts, cuts, cuts for the foreseeable in the vast majority of sectors

Then next year good luck applying for any job that may arise due to hundreds applying for the same role - including many with senior management experience now 'lowering' themselves to mid-level roles

There'll be no work for students for the forseeable to pay college fees, this will then fall back on their parents who now may be out of work or have high paycuts - the knock on effects of this whole thing are just too galling to imagine

Today could be a make or break day for SMEs countrywide. Any sort of indication as to an imminent return could be the difference in some staying above water.

fits

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

This might make uncomfortable reading for some.


https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/sweden-is-a-model-for-the-new-coronavirus-normal-says-who-dd8fgw7d0

Not least because its behind a paywall :P

Actually I agree, I think lesser restrictions are probably justified - definitely outside the cities.

Re my earlier comment and mortality rates etc, I wont be taking any chances with the virus. ITs a dangerous unknown entity. I'd prefer if we could eliminate it altogether from the country at least until a vaccine is developed.

20silkcut

kippy wrote: »

I don't think there's a disconnect.
Most people realise that poorer countries have drasticilly worse health outcomes. Most people realise that this economic disaster is going to lead to hard decisions being required.
But most people also realise the alternatives that are on the table are far less palatible than the current situation.

Do people seriously beleive that the unrestricted spread of this virus GLOBALLY would have resulted in a less worse outcome than that currently?


Restrictions will get lifted on a phased basis and the economy both local and global will and has tanked - but there are options available to states to help create wealth and generate money. There are very few options available to states if this virus had run rampant.

Prime example is the airline industry. Flights kept going full belt all over the world in full knowledge of a deadly disease being transported on those planes. I’m sure there was intense lobbying by the airline industry to just plough on. Now two months later 90% of planes sit idle on the tarmac. International air travel is a very dark place. That’s what ploughing on regardless results in.

GazzaL

GazzaL wrote: »

Normal goes out the window if we lock down until mid June. The places the do re-open will not be re-opening with full staff. The €350 a week will be gone, even €200 a week will be unaffordable given the numbers that will be in receipt of it. We might have to align with the North and reduce it to €83.50 a week.

We need to use social distancing, good hygiene, and get on with life. A reality check is in the post.

Do you think that business in the hospitality sector that open now will be able to open with full staff. Will be at 30% capacity if they are lucky with social distancing, and will struggle to get past 50% this year. Get our cases down towards single digits and they could potentially open at 70%+ capacity.

ShatterAlan

GazzaL wrote: »

Companies of all sizes are going to collapse as a result of the lockdown. Huge numbers of temporary job losses will become permanent, and there will be a high number of long-term unemployed as a result.

Companies who had issues coming into this crisis are in big trouble. We've already seen some big names like Debenhams and Oasis go into liquidation/administration.

Many healthy businesses will also collapse as they can't sustain the costs of continuing with these lockdown measures, or they will let go of staff due to reduced demand for their products and services. This is most unfortunate, because most busineses could re-open safely tomorrow. SMEs have been sourcing hand sanitiser, PPE, and implementing social distancing plans since before the lockdown and can operate as safely, if not more safely, than supermarkets and other businesses which have been allowed to continue trading.

12,000 jobs are being cut in British Airways, and we can expect job losses in Aer Lingus too who are also part of IAG. Ryanair, who have one of the healthiest balance sheets in the business, have warned this morning of 3000 job cuts.

Here's a graph of forecast permanent job losses.



Thanks Leo. Thanks Tony.

Leo and Tony caused the COVID outbreak?

ShatterAlan

ShatterAlan wrote: »

Leo and Tony caused the COVID outbreak?

Evidently - they were sacrificing baby bats in an office in Mount Street

Plumbthedepths

[Deleted User] wrote: »

This is what some Irish people do when in lockdown

https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/dublin-lord-mayor-hits-out-at-parties-where-social-distancing-had-gone-out-the-window-996371.html

Can you imagine what would happen when trusted to social distance - if only there was an example or two

https://www.irishpost.com/news/revellers-filmed-singing-dancing-arm-arm-packed-dublin-pub-despite-coronavirus-warnings-181646

https://www.irishtimes.com/sport/racing/cheltenham-faces-criticism-after-racegoers-suffer-covid-19-symptoms-1.4219458

Just a question was social distancing being enforced and the the justification for it during the two examples you cited?

gp1990

Deleted User wrote: »

Do you think that business in the hospitality sector that open now will be able to open with full staff. Will be at 30% capacity if they are lucky with social distancing, and will struggle to get past 50% this year. Get our cases down towards single digits and they could potentially open at 70%+ capacity.

Many in the hotel sector are seriously considering what level of automation they can now look to implement in the shorter term - automation in hospitality has been a topic rising in popularity in recent years but was more looking towards ten or so years down the line in the likes of Ireland

For example there might be no receptionists, but visitors will instead check in using their smart phone on a machine at the front desk and they then automatically download a barcode which also acts as their room key

Sadly this will mean a lot of permanent job losses - its a very tough time ahead for hospitality in general

Plumbthedepths

fits wrote: »

Not least because its behind a paywall :P

Actually I agree, I think lesser restrictions are probably justified - definitely outside the cities.

Re my earlier comment and mortality rates etc, I wont be taking any chances with the virus. ITs a dangerous unknown entity. I'd prefer if we could eliminate it altogether from the country at least until a vaccine is developed.

It won't be eliminated from the country and according to some experts with WHO a vaccine is unlikely in the next 12 to 18 months if ever.

threeball

People also seem to overlook the bind employers are in. They are bound by law to provide a safe workplace. How can anyone stand over that given the nature of the virus. There is an inherent risk. Will employees have to sign a waiver to say they acknowledge the risk and absolve the employer of any responsibility in the event of contracting COVID.

The J Stands for Jay

Lol @ op thinking oasis and Debenhams would've been ok but for Covid19.

Plumbthedepths

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Evidently - they were sacrificing baby bats in an office in Mount Street

With the above there goes any credibility you have.

gp1990

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

It won't be eliminated from the country and according to some experts with WHO a vaccine is unlikely in the next 12 to 18 months if ever.

And even if a vaccine comes to market, how long before little old Ireland even get their hands on it or any sort of meaningful distribution nationwide?

Personally I'm just hoping for a miracle and putting my hopes on other treatments at this stage.

Plumbthedepths

threeball wrote: »

People also seem to overlook the bind employers are in. They are bound by law to provide a safe workplace. How can anyone stand over that given the nature of the virus. There is an inherent risk. Will employees have to sign a waiver to say they acknowledge the risk and absolve the employer of any responsibility in the event of contracting COVID.

How's it working out for the Supermarkets, filling stations, takeaways and pharmacies to name but a few?

Mango Joe

I'm sure very few people will have any interest in climbing down to this level and helping you to draw crude graphs with crayons as you struggle with the very basics........

Plumbthedepths

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Just a question was social distancing being enforced and the the justification for it during the two examples you cited?

No, but people were being encouraged to use their own judgement and avoid unnecessary contact

Plumbthedepths

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

With the above there goes any credibility you have.

what are you prattling on about - ever heard of satire or sarchasm

threeball

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

How's it working out for the Supermarkets, filling stations, takeaways and pharmacies to name but a few?

Those workers don't tend to be as militant as those in offices. Theres sometimes killings over the air conditioning temperature in some places. I can see there being huge problems over the next few weeks as restrictions are lifted.

LuasSimon

GazzaL wrote: »

The hospitals aren't overwhelmed. Our ICUs are only at 33% capacity. We're paying €115m per month to keep private hospitals 75% empty. https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/calls-to-revisit-private-hospital-deal-as-beds-lying-empty-despite-115m-per-month-cost-to-taxpayer-996616.html

Larry Goodman and Denis O Brien are cleaning up out of the 115M every month the private hospitals are getting ,