Covid19 Part XVII-24,841 in ROI (1,639 deaths) 4,679 in NI (518 deaths)(28/05)Read OP

Jackman25

eagle eye wrote: »

Big difference between fear and my other trait which is common sense.
I'd suspect you are very lacking in the common sense department.

eagle eye wrote: »

I just gave you one example off the top of my head that I know about. I've seen many people doing things they shouldn't but I don't know if anything happened because of those things.
I'm not out hunting for stories about what's going on.
Fact of the matter is he wasn't the only person who went to Cheltenham and didn't self-isolate when they came back. There could be hundreds of those stories and we'll never know about a lot of them because the carrier was asymptomatic.
I'm not interested in a debate with somebody who only has one agenda which is to put everybody back out on the street. You fire ahead and do your thing, I'll be going nowhere until I feel it's safe to and neither will my wife or kids. We'll homeschool until this thing is gone.
I'm happy to watch from the sidelines and ensure my family stays safe.

Common sense my hole. Going to home school till a vaccine comes ya?

weldoninhio

is_that_so wrote: »

Screwed us how? Where is "bestest" in that case?

"How would we feel if Italy stopped our flights" - Simon Coveney, as Italy became the epicentre of the virus in Europe.

phormium

phormium wrote: »

In normal times you wouldn't see people out having picnics as they would eating in restaurants etc.

Same for the walking, people who used to go the gym or to any sort of sports can't do that so walking is all we have pretty much!

Plus people are finding that their day is done at 5 and they have no commute. With nothing else to do, everyone is going to be out in the parks. Public places are going to be far busier than normal times for the foreseeable future, as long as we are all WFH

Widdensushi

Flickerfusion wrote: »

We’re going to have a European, American and global recession one way or another because of COVID 19.

Ireland’s got an opportunity to pull off a slightly more cautious approach to this than some of our neighbours. We have the luxury of being a bit more isolated. We aren’t in Schengen. We’re an island, so have limited issues with road traffic, other than with Northern Ireland and we are much less dependent on tourism as a big part of our economy than any of our neighbours, including the U.K. and USA.

Many of the sectors here can and are reopening safely.

Throwing everything as open as possible is not going to save us from an impending recession. What will ultimately drive that is the global situation with trade.

If we manage to avoid a second wave in the autumn by being that bit more cautious, it’s quite possible we could be in a similar situation to NZ and Australia, relatively unimpaired, while other places could be very badly hit.

There’s a very strong likelihood the US simply won’t get control of this due to political issues and you’ll have a big mess again in a few months and the U.K. is similar and you could well have have major problems on the continent as mass movement of tourism kicks off. Germany is already warning about this.

It’s not as simple as just economic activity at max vs lockdown. It’s a balance and we are walking a tightrope.

If you get a big second wave before there’s any serious medical treatments, we have a potentially huge economic impact too.

As yet, there’s really no reason to expect this virus to have gone away or somehow become less of a risk.

Short term vs medium term thinking!

Other countries closed their borders, we did not and seem to have no intention of it, we are wasting our time having a cautious approach internally.

Flickerfusion

Biggest recession in history of the planet potentially and it’s across the entire globe and is likely to have a lot of leeway with European and global solutions relative to a recession caused by something structural blowing up in the financial system like the last one.

ceadaoin.

weldoninhio wrote: »

So about 24 deaths per state?? With 40 of those states being bigger than Ireland. Numbers seem reasonable compared to everywhere else.

At least 24 states have deaths in the single digits today, seven of those with zero. Most of the deaths are still concentrated in the area of the epicentre in america, so new york, new jersey, Pennsylvania etc. That doesn't sound that scary or dramatic though.

is_that_so

GazzaL wrote: »

The biggest recession in the history of the State. Try to let that sink in. People must have the memory of a goldfish if they can't remember the devastation caused by the last one.

No but they do know we've been here before, unlike COVID-19. It's more tangible to deal with and easier to process. One cannot but stifle a yawn at the piffling numbers of €11-30bn! This one will be a lot different because the contagion is not really economic.

is_that_so

weldoninhio wrote: »

"How would we feel if Italy stopped our flights" - Simon Coveney, as Italy became the epicentre of the virus in Europe.

You seem to be answering a completely different question.

Jim_Hodge

Onesea wrote: »

Hey, the virus is weakening.So it may be present for a while longer but far less threatening to life.

Ok I'll bite. Where is the reliable evidence that the virus will be less life threatening?

Jackman25

Whats the big deal about 80 cases in South Korea. Its the equivalent of ~8 cases here in a country many times more densely populated than ours and which opened up all its nightclubs a few weeks ago.

Widdensushi

Flickerfusion wrote: »

Biggest recession in history of the planet potentially and it’s across the entire globe and is likely to have a lot of leeway with European and global solutions relative to a recession caused by something structural blowing up in the financial system like the last one.

So the best approach is to get even more in debt?, there will be cuts to every form of public spending, this recession is going to be so much worse than the last one, do you realise how many businesses that were open six months ago will be closed in six months time, how many people are hoping for a miracle to save their business?

Flickerfusion

ceadaoin. wrote: »

At least 24 states have deaths in the single digits today, seven of those with zero. Most of the deaths are still concentrated in the area of the epicentre in america, so new york, new jersey, Pennsylvania etc. That doesn't sound that scary or dramatic though.

The US is a rather complex though with state to state policies and flows of people that are as different as EU member states are from each other.

If you look at the areas that are hit most heavily, they’re all nexuses of activity and trade. The places least impacted are the “fly over states” and that makes sense.

In European context, Ireland is a small nexus area at this stage and extremely well connected.

A scenario that could emerge is a second wave of infections in those states, spread from the first wave on the coasts, but arriving later due to patterns of movement of people.

A one size fits all policy for the entire US did make sense but some kind of control of movement between hot and cold zones would have and that did not happen. All the focus from the administration was on “over seas” risks long after the NYC area in particular was one of the worst hotspots in the world.

GazzaL

Widdensushi wrote: »

So the best approach is to get even more in debt?, there will be cuts to every form of public spending, this recession is going to be so much worse than the last one, do you realise how many businesses that were open six months ago will be closed in six months time, how many people are hoping for a miracle to save their business?

Nobody is saying anything about the public sector's upcoming pay rise either despite facing into the biggest recession in the history of the State.

Jackman25

ChelseaRentBoy wrote: »

Went up to a local park (Deer Park) last night for a walk with the dog. First time up there in weeks as a bit off my beaten track. Shocked to witness what was happening. Gangs of people everywhere, playing football, frisbees, eating and drinking with rugs laid out. I thought i'd walked into a mini festival. These where not families either but some where mixing with others. Got out quick smart and first house i passed when i left had what looked like circa 20 people in the front garden having a barbecue and boozing. Unfortunately these selfish pricks just can't observe self control for the good of us all.

Meanwhile in South Korea https://www.rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2020/0528/1143078-world-coronavirus-cases/

Meh.

Flickerfusion

Widdensushi wrote: »

So the best approach is to get even more in debt?, there will be cuts to every form of public spending, this recession is going to be so much worse than the last one, do you realise how many businesses that were open six months ago will be closed in six months time, how many people are hoping for a miracle to save their business?

I’m not saying don’t open things up. What I’m saying is don’t throw caution to the wind and go completely crazy when we absolutely know there’s a huge threat of a second serious outbreak. There is a huge economic impact of a second outbreak as we would have potentially large scale disruption all over again.

If you don’t balance the risks of a cautious opening against the risks of a pandemic driven second wave recession in autumn, you also place the economy at huge risk.

One way or the other we are going to have a bad recession. There aren’t any good options, just least worst options.

There’s a false dichotomy being presented. It’s not a choice of lockdown vs absolutely back to normal. It’s something in between the two with prudently managed risks, both health and economic.

stephenjmcd

Flickerfusion wrote: »

We’re going to have a European, American and global recession one way or another because of COVID 19.

Ireland’s got an opportunity to pull off a slightly more cautious approach to this than some of our neighbours. We have the luxury of being a bit more isolated. We aren’t in Schengen. We’re an island, so have limited issues with road traffic, other than with Northern Ireland and we are much less dependent on tourism as a big part of our economy than any of our neighbours, including the U.K. and USA.

Many of the sectors here can and are reopening safely.

Throwing everything as open as possible is not going to save us from an impending recession. What will ultimately drive that is the global situation with trade.

If we manage to avoid a second wave in the autumn by being that bit more cautious, it’s quite possible we could be in a similar situation to NZ and Australia, relatively unimpaired, while other places could be very badly hit.

There’s a very strong likelihood the US simply won’t get control of this due to political issues and you’ll have a big mess again in a few months and the U.K. is similar and you could well have have major problems on the continent as mass movement of tourism kicks off. Germany is already warning about this.

It’s not as simple as just economic activity at max vs lockdown. It’s a balance and we are walking a tightrope.

If you get a big second wave before there’s any serious medical treatments, we have a potentially huge economic impact too.

As yet, there’s really no reason to expect this virus to have gone away or somehow become less of a risk.

Short term vs medium term thinking!

Why are there still references to New Zealand, us and them are nowhere near remotely comparable. Anyone who thinks we're going to shut ourselves off to Europe is living in dreamland. Not being in Schengen wont make the slightest difference when EU travel resumes. The CMO will be overruled by Brussels on his travel stance.

Tourism is a small but big part of the Irish economy contributing over 9Billion in 2018 for example not exactly an insignificant amount of money.

Like it or not things will get moving again, we're already more prepared than we were in March.

I get that you want to have a cautious approach but that approach wont save businesses and jobs nor will it help a generation already saddled with the debt of the banking crisis.

I think everyone knows things just wont return to normal, but for the love of god give people a chance to run their businesses with new safety measures and dont be treating them like children.

Also as for 2nd wave, yes its possible, is it a certainty, no it's not. We watch around Europe, economy and society opening more and more and no wave

Flickerfusion

Legally speaking, we actually cannot be overruled by Brussels on this. It’s not covered by law as there are opt outs covering national security and public health grounds. Freedom of movement was always subject to those criteria, which is why borders could be closed. Those are very clearly reserved powers held by member states.

We are also not part of the Schengen area due to the CTA. Although in many respects it’s less complicated to move to Ireland than it is to any continental country as we do not require people to register or provide proof of means, which is normal elsewhere. So in some ways Ireland (and the U.K. when it was in the EU) were far more in keeping with the spirit of European integration than most other members, despite not being in Schengen!

Also we don’t have any barriers to freedom of movement from the EU. We have a requirement to register on entry and to provide details of where you’re staying and advice to self isolate.

All the contact details are for is contact tracing in the event of needing to be contacted & it applies to all but Northern Ireland.

Several EU countries, eg Austria and Denmark actually closed borders entirely, even briefly causing trade disruption until the European Commission stepped in to keep goods moving.

The way Ireland’s registration requirement has been presented as a quarantine is a bit misleading, given we have never closed borders or blocked entry.

stephenjmcd

Flickerfusion wrote: »

Legally speaking, we actually cannot be overruled by Brussels on this. It’s not covered by law as there are opt outs covering national security and public health grounds. Freedom of movement was always subject to those criteria, which is why borders could be closed.

We are also not part of the Schengen area due to the CTA. Although in many respects it’s less complicated to move to Ireland than it is to any continental country as we do not require people to register or provide proof of means, which is normal elsewhere. So in some ways Ireland (and the U.K. when it was in the EU) were far more in keeping with the spirit of European integration than most other members, despite not being in Schengen!

Also we don’t have any barriers to freedom of movement from the EU. We have a requirement to register on entry and to provide details of where you’re staying and advice to self isolate.

All the contact details are for is contact tracing in the event of needing to be contacted & it applies to all but Northern Ireland.

Several EU countries, eg Austria and Denmark actually closed borders entirely, even briefly causing trade disruption until the European Commission stepped in to keep goods moving.

The way Ireland’s registration requirement has been presented as a quarantine is a bit misleading, given we have never closed borders or blocked entry.

I know we're not part of Schengen but realistically it makes no odds if we are or aren't with EU travel, being a member nation wont see us left behind in terms of travel. Likewise migration within the EU, if I wanted to move to Germany for example its straight forward as an EU member.

Well if you listen to the cmo last night he's telling people they're breaking the law if they think of travelling for non essential reasons and he referenced July for example when we could technically go to Spain for example.

Yes I agree the presention of the travel legislation around the form is misleading, its mandatory to fill it in and that's all. But it's this presention that is hurting and will hurt the likes of aviation and tourism if people think going to Ireland they'll be told to self isolate. Aerlingus used it as a reason to cut jobs and pay yesterday for example.

Flickerfusion

Widdensushi wrote: »

So the best approach is to get even more in debt?, there will be cuts to every form of public spending, this recession is going to be so much worse than the last one, do you realise how many businesses that were open six months ago will be closed in six months time, how many people are hoping for a miracle to save their business?

Without use of a fiscal stimulus package via the ECB and very, very cheap bonds be they European or Irish, we will just be wiped out. Other countries like the US will have the printing presses running, without signifiant inflation (especially for the USD) while the EU will be discussing fiscal rectitude and the terrible moral hazard of borrowing at negative rates in a market willing to pay to have you store its money safely away from volatility. Meanwhile the Italians will have left the Euro and there’ll be social strife again in France and so on.

The most important thing though is we balance the cheque book and that The Hague and imaginary Bavarian caricatures can feel morally superior while the US and China just sail on by with their economies flourishing, despite everything.

Onesea

Flickerfusion wrote: »

That’s the other bit that’s surprising me. In normal times people didn’t have picnics in the middle of their local green with all their neighbours, or do the conga with them.

It’s like both here and in Britain people are feeling the need to be even more sociable in those contexts than they’ve ever been before.

It’s the same with the 2km and 5km walks. I’ve never seen so many people out walking at any other stage ever before.

It might have alot to do with the fact everywhere is closed.

Plumbthedepths

Uriel. wrote: »

An awful lot of attempts to rewrite history.
Imagine the CEO of an extremely lucrative private industry blaming everyone else for failings. Thrown to the mercy my hole.

Attempt to rewrite history, don't make me laugh. The failures on all sides is well documented. Only one trying to change the narrative here and that is you.
The state has a duty of care to all citizens regardless of what setting they are in, the state failed. There is no denying that whether you like it or not.

Sanjuro

stephenjmcd wrote: »

In terms of the CMO he should have gone after the cervical check controversy

A thousand times this. It is shocking yet unsurprising that somebody who presided over that fiasco is allowed to retain his job. That's Ireland for you.

Widdensushi

Flickerfusion wrote: »

I’m not saying don’t open things up. What I’m saying is don’t throw caution to the wind and go completely crazy when we absolutely know there’s a huge threat of a second serious outbreak. There is a huge economic impact of a second outbreak as we would have potentially large scale disruption all over again.

.

Opening up in the form proposed will cost many businesses more than staying closed, it won't be viable. I have total empathy for all those who have suffered illness and loss from this terrible disease but I am not sure if the cure is worse than the disease. Our hospitals weren't overrun and in fact were the quietest they have been. I believe that the measures should be applied when there is a danger of overrunning the hospitals and had the impression that was why they were applied. The goalposts seem to have been moved now though. While we have open borders it's a waste crippling our economy more than is necessary to fight this. We have to learn to live with it, the most vulnerable have to isolate and be cared for, handwashing etc has to be strictly applied. Otherwise we are looking at generations of poverty, with little health care and serious mental health issues.

Onesea

Your Gona buy flights, bring spending money and you wanna visit family a friends.
Then you read the Irish embassy stating a 14 day quarantine when entering Ireland.. Just keep the place closed as nobody is going to visit unless they are willing to break the laws.

Airlines will be happy to get moving again but there will have to be bums in seats. As the above post mentions, the slow return will cost more than a complete stop.

bb1234567

Jackman25 wrote: »

Whats the big deal about 80 cases in South Korea. Its the equivalent of ~8 cases here in a country many times more densely populated than ours and which opened up all its nightclubs a few weeks ago.

The big deal is not that it is a lot of cases but that it is a lot considering the crazy control measures in place in South Korea to catch and stamp out every transmission

eagle eye

Jackman25 wrote:

Common sense my hole. Going to home school till a vaccine comes ya?

You clearly have reading comprehension issues. I didn't say anything in my post about waiting for a vaccine. I said I'm waiting until it's safe. If our government decide tomorrow to make it law to wear facemasks in urban areas, shops, public transport and all confined areas where you are meeting members if the public and put testing with quarantine until you are cleared in place for all wishing to enter the country we'd possibly have no cases in a very short time. Keep the testing and quarantine in place when we reach zero cases and we are done with this and can continue on with our lives until such times as a vaccine becomes available. Does that sound unreasonable to you?

Kermit.de.frog

ceadaoin. wrote: »

At least 24 states have deaths in the single digits today, seven of those with zero.

28 states were in double or triple digits yesterday. 1,535 deaths brings total to 102,107.

MerlinSouthDub

Widdensushi wrote: »

So the best approach is to get even more in debt?, there will be cuts to every form of public spending, this recession is going to be so much worse than the last one, do you realise how many businesses that were open six months ago will be closed in six months time, how many people are hoping for a miracle to save their business?

Yes, the best approach absolutely is more debt. Cutting spending, increasing taxes etc will create a longer, deeper recession. The right approach is to reflate the economy using government debt, and using that to support small and medium sized businesses to restart and grow their businesses again.

Cutting spending after a massive deflationary shock (the pandemic) would be completely counterproductive and not supported by any economic theory that I'm aware of.

weldoninhio

eagle eye wrote: »

You clearly have reading comprehension issues. I didn't say anything in my post about waiting for a vaccine. I said I'm waiting until it's safe. If our government decide tomorrow to make it law to wear facemasks in urban areas, shops, public transport and all confined areas where you are meeting members if the public and put testing with quarantine until you are cleared in place for all wishing to enter the country we'd possibly have no cases in a very short time. Keep the testing and quarantine in place when we reach zero cases and we are done with this and can continue on with our lives until such times as a vaccine becomes available. Does that sound unreasonable to you?

May not sound unreasonable to you, but it is never going to happen. May as well dream here as in bed.

Eod100

You'd wonder should the ''spare'' capacity be used to regularly test healthcare workers, people in nursing homes, direct provision, mental health units etc? If not already done so.

Or people returning to work soon?

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1265945286217785344