Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

daydorunrun

Saw an ice cream/ sweet shop in greystones today putting up ‘we now sell hardware’ Signs obviously getting ready for Monday.,....., you’ll never beat the Irish!!

FintanMcluskey

MadYaker wrote: »

Still waiting on a figure for how many people the lockdown has killed.

How many would be still here today if Covid didn't exist?

Colibri

There was an ice cream van today in my estate and people were out with their kids queueing up.

Fine day, nice breeze, little chance of infection.

It was lovely to see.

wakka12

Deleted User wrote: »

I’m fairly sure you already nobody can provide such a figure.

Many will die as a result of cancer treatments and screenings being cancelled. Others may die to other treatments getting cancelled.

But most will die due to the recession. Suicides, death from stress related illnesses, death from addiction, death from homelessness.

All of those things majority increase in a recession. And our recession gets worse every day we stay in lockdown.

The number will be much greater than Covid. But it won’t be highly reported on in the mainstream media so no one will feel responsible.

This is all completely unsubstantiated - economic recession is for some known and other unknown reasons associated with decreased mortality trends.
https://www.genre.com/knowledge/blog/does-an-economic-downturn-lead-to-an-increasing-mortality-rate-en.html

However, data charting the percentage change in per capita GDP and life expectancy in the U.S. for the years 1910 to 2012 reveals a clear trend of increasing life expectancy by negative change in GDP. Counter-intuitively it seems mortality may actually fall during economic downturns.

A correlation definitely exists between macro-economic activity and total mortality for all causes.3 Data from 23 OECD countries highlights this effect. Mortality decreases by 0.4% for each 1% increase in unemployment, mainly driven by a reduction in vehicle accident deaths offset by an increase in deaths by suicide and homicide.4 Similar patterns are seen in U.S. data where mortality due to heart disease, liver disease, influenza and pneumonia all decrease during economic downturns.5

A clear correlation exists between economic downturn and decreased mortality – even if this seems counterintuitive. While it is easy to explain a decrease in accidental deaths, the influence of economics on natural deaths is more of a mystery.

So if there is recession, it is likely even less people will die than normal. One less thing for you to scare monger about

Meanwhile COVID remains the leading cause of death in Europe despite a two month lockdown, thats the actual reality, not some made up theory of everyone dying from drug addiction and homelessness and mass suicide in this hellish post lockdown social landscape you have manufactured in your mind. Jesus get a grip, COVID has and will remain far more dangerous than a lockdown, no matter how much you hate lockdowns. I am not disputing the awful economic situation we face due to this very unnnecessarily harsh lockdown but the silly accusations of it killing more people than COVID are pathetic.

pgj2015

Colibri wrote: »

There was an ice cream van today in my estate and people were out with their kids queueing up.

Fine day, nice breeze, little chance of infection.

It was lovely to see.

Tony would probably be furious if he saw it.

bettyoleary

SusieBlue wrote: »

Yeah I never said that either, or even indirectly implied it, so you’re making yourself look quite stupid now.
Still waiting for evidence that the majority of the Irish workforce suffer from that long list of life threatening ailments.

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/time-think-differently/trends-disease-and-disability-long-term-conditions-multi-morbidity
Pretty much the same in Ireland too. Same diet, lifestyle etc. Many. many people from the age of 50 are on some form of medication for conditions described in link. These conditions are treatable and not life threatening. Have a look at the age groups of the people in ICU with Covid. You will find a large majority are in the 50-65 age group.

KaneToad

Colibri wrote: »

Didn't he say we need to be cautious because if we lift lockdown and get new cases, we'd have to lockdown again which would be worse for the economy??


Spoken like a teacher indeed, or a parent trying to warn a child.

Now now, if you don't eat your dinner you won't get dessert and it'll be your fault

I don't care about his tone, or delivery. But he's speaking facts...

MadYaker

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Don't worry, we'll be finding that out for years to come due to mass unemployment, poverty and wrecked economies.

Jaysus in the trump thread you’re saying everything will be grand. Which is it?

Can you put a number on how many deaths that will lead to? We have to base our actions on facts and statistics not feelings unfortunately.

deisedevil

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

How many would be still here today if Covid didn't exist?

You'd be banging a different drum on here if we had put no restrictions in place. Our disfunctional health system would have folded and people like you would be berating those who didn't put restrictions in place to give it a chance.

SusieBlue

bettyoleary wrote: »

https://www.kingsfund.org.uk/projects/time-think-differently/trends-disease-and-disability-long-term-conditions-multi-morbidity
Pretty much the same in Ireland too. Same diet, lifestyle etc. Many. many people from the age of 50 are on some form of medication for conditions described in link. These conditions are treatable and not life threatening. Have a look at the age groups of the people in ICU with Covid. You will find a large majority are in the 50-65 age group.

But the ‘majority of the Irish workforce’ isn’t aged 50-65 years old, so that’s completely irrelevant.

He said the majority of the workforce suffer from conditions such as cystic fibrosis, kidney failure, cancer, diabetes and a few other seriously debilitating illnesses.
That’s simply not true.

FintanMcluskey

deisedevil wrote: »

You'd be banging a different drum on here if we had put no restrictions in place. Our disfunctional health system would have folded and people like you would be berating those who didn't put restrictions in place to give it a chance.

No restrict the vulnerable.
Everyone else as normal as Sweden done

MadYaker

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No restrict the vulnerable.
Everyone else as normal as Sweden done

Their nursing homes have been routed just like ours. Half their deaths were in nursing homes.

Colibri

pgj2015 wrote: »

Tony would probably be furious if he saw it.

But he'd deny any tension between him and the ice cream van

FintanMcluskey

MadYaker wrote: »

Their nursing homes have been routed just like ours. Half their deaths were in nursing homes.

Thats proving restrictions make little difference

growleaves

MadYaker wrote: »

We have to base our actions on facts and statistics not feelings unfortunately.

The statistical models we based our actions on were wrong, meaning the assumptions behind them were wrong.

Lockdown is empirically-untested theoretical science. (Please don't contradict this statement without also producing datasets, studies validating lockdown, which you won't find because they don't exist.)

We don't 'have to' base our actions on statistics actually. This iron law of scientific-advisory absolutism that has sprung up is a choice.

deisedevil

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

No restrict the vulnerable.
Everyone else as normal as Sweden done

Sweden themselves are admitting they aren't doing very well right now but they are pinning their hopes on their second wave not being quiet as bad as other countries. They're willing to sacrifice vulnerable people. Should we be as cold here too? I meant that's what it comes down to isn't it really? And our ICU capacity is nothing like what they have so we'd have struggled badly.

Ginger n Lemon

growleaves wrote: »

The statistical models we based our actions on were wrong, meaning the assumptions behind them were wrong.

Lockdown is empirically-untested theoretical science. (Please don't contradict this statement without also producing datasets, studies validating lockdown, which you won't find because they don't exist.)

We don't 'have to' base our actions on statistics actually. This iron law of scientific-advisory absolutism that has sprung up is a choice.

We put healthy people into quarantine. And now majority dont want to listen to reason, because reason says this has been a big disaster from 12th of March onwards. Every day passing by of this absolute nonsense. No justification.

Are people more safe in a hardware shop than homeware? Shambles.

deisedevil

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

We put healthy people into quarantine. And now majority dont want to listen to reason, because reason says this has been a big disaster from 12th of March onwards. Every day passing by of this absolute nonsense. No justification.

Are people more safe in a hardware shop than homeware? Shambles.

It's not that they are more safe. They are lifting restrictions based on what is more necessary. All along food shops were necessary so they stayed open. So as time goes on the things that are more necessary will open up bit by bit while monitoring the numbers in case the hospitals look like they won't cope.

wakka12

wakka12 wrote: »

This is all completely unsubstantiated - economic recession is for some known and other unknown reasons associated with decreased mortality trends.
https://www.genre.com/knowledge/blog/does-an-economic-downturn-lead-to-an-increasing-mortality-rate-en.html


So if there is recession, it is likely even less people will die than normal. One less thing for you to scare monger about

Meanwhile COVID remains the leading cause of death in Europe despite a two month lockdown, thats the actual reality, not some made up theory of everyone dying from drug addiction and homelessness and mass suicide in this hellish post lockdown social landscape you have manufactured in your mind. Jesus get a grip, COVID has and will remain far more dangerous than a lockdown, no matter how much you hate lockdowns. I am not disputing the awful economic situation we face due to this very unnnecessarily harsh lockdown but the silly accusations of it killing more people than COVID are pathetic.

Tanya who now?

It’s a proven fact that richer countries have a higher life expectancy. It’s a well known fact that recession is terrible for a country.

GDP drops, deaths go up.

SusieBlue

deisedevil wrote: »

It's not that they are more safe. They are lifting restrictions based on what is more necessary. All along food shops were necessary so they stayed open. So as time goes on the things that are more necessary will open up bit by bit while monitoring the numbers in case the hospitals look like they won't cope.

Most shops & services besides supermarkets weren’t deemed necessary on the 15th of March, when businesses started closing.
It made sense to close them because we didn’t see them as essential. But it’s now 9 weeks later and we need them now.

By August 10th, 21 weeks will have passed.
That’s 21 weeks, or over 5 months, that some people are going to be out of work and that we as a society are without a service that we previously relied upon.

bettyoleary

SusieBlue wrote: »

But the ‘majority of the Irish workforce’ isn’t aged 50-65 years old, so that’s completely irrelevant.

He said the majority of the workforce suffer from conditions such as cystic fibrosis, kidney failure, cancer, diabetes and a few other seriously debilitating illnesses.
That’s simply not true.

No its not true that the majority of the work force have serious conditions such as the ones you describe, But, many people 50 upwards do have conditions that would have a significant impact on their outcome if they contracted Covid. I was just pointing out that 50 -65 make up a substantial and very important part of the work force in Ireland. So its not just the elderly and very vunerable that the lockdown is protecting.

Mike3287

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Thats proving restrictions make little difference

We have the best data in the world to measure lockdown restriction/herd immunity to Covid19

Dont know why scientists havent been testing this group

Never mind Sweden

We have a much better case study here

No social distancing, havent been locked down, participate in mass gatherings

Should be the first group to be antibody tested next month, be interested in the results tbh

wakka12

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Tanya who now?

It’s a proven fact that richer countries have a higher life expectancy. It’s a well known fact that recession is terrible for a country.

GDP drops, deaths go up.

You are saying the data gathered from multiple countries that associates economic recession with decreased mortality rates is wrong? Based on what?

In general we may conclude that the populations of most developed and developing nations enjoy improved health and increasing wealth over time. Following this logic and assuming there is some positive correlation between wealth and longevity, a recession would then worsen mortality rates particularly if people lose their jobs as a result of the recession.

However, data charting the percentage change in per capita GDP and life expectancy in the U.S. for the years 1910 to 2012 reveals a clear trend of increasing life expectancy by negative change in GDP. Counter-intuitively it seems mortality may actually fall during economic downturns.

Lockdown deaths remain at zero and will never cause any massive inccease in deaths that you have wrongly theorised, sorry that the facts don't fit your narrative. Recessions are terrible for a country, but you can omit the fake news about recessions causing huge deaths from your rants

SusieBlue

bettyoleary wrote: »

No its not true that the majority of the work force have serious conditions such as the ones you describe, But, many people 50 upwards do have conditions that would have a significant impact on their outcome if they contracted Covid. I was just pointing out that 50 -65 make up a substantial and very important part of the work force in Ireland. So its not just the elderly and very vunerable that the lockdown is protecting.

And again, I’m not understanding the relevance when I said a few times over now that anyone elderly or with an underlying condition should be supported in cocooning indefinitely if they so wish.
I don’t support the whole country being shut down as collateral damage when we can very easily protect the most vulnerable and let others go back to work.

Lockdown is harming more people than it’s protecting at this stage.

SusieBlue

SusieBlue wrote: »

And again, I’m not understanding the relevance when I said a few times over now that anyone elderly or with an underlying condition should be supported in cocooning indefinitely if they so wish.
I don’t support the whole country being shut down as collateral damage when we can very easily protect the most vulnerable and let others go back to work. All in the cause of relaxation.

Lockdown is harming more people than it’s protecting at this stage.

How does a patient receiving active cancer treatment cocoon? Riddle me that one, breaker of CUH social media policy. That would a disciplinary matter for whoever leaked that screenshot. God forbid the EXIF data was identifiable off the phone that it was taken off. Terrible really.

bettyoleary

SusieBlue wrote: »

And again, I’m not understanding the relevance when I said a few times over now that anyone elderly or with an underlying condition should be supported in cocooning indefinitely if they so wish.
I don’t support the whole country being shut down as collateral damage when we can very easily protect the most vulnerable and let others go back to work.

Lockdown is harming more people than it’s protecting at this stage.

In an ideal scenario I would agree with you but its not as simple as that. You cant just day Ok everyone who is at risk cocoon. Children and young people can't run the country.

FintanMcluskey

deisedevil wrote: »

Sweden themselves are admitting they aren't doing very well right now but they are pinning their hopes on their second wave not being quiet as bad as other countries. They're willing to sacrifice vulnerable people. Should we be as cold here too? I meant that's what it comes down to isn't it really? And our ICU capacity is nothing like what they have so we'd have struggled badly.

Sweden havent seen 200k dead.

It was predictions like so that caused restrictions to be implemented in Ireland. That was the justification

FintanMcluskey

bettyoleary wrote: »

In an ideal scenario I would agree with you but its not as simple as that. You cant just day Ok everyone who is at risk cocoon. Children and young people can't run the country.

Well the alternative is cocoon everyone until the end of time

SusieBlue

[Deleted User] wrote: »

How does a patient receiving active cancer treatment cocoon? Riddle me that one, breaker of CUH social media policy. That would a disciplinary matter for whoever leaked that screenshot. God forbid the EXIF data gave the phone data that it was taken off. Terrible really.

Is that your lame attempt of trying to intimidate me?
That’s actually quite pathetic on your part.

That picture was from Twitter & it was also in the Lockdown Ireland group on FB. Have a look yourself and I’m sure you’ll find it. I did make sure to confirm it’s legitimacy before posting though.

I’m sure the HSE will be delighted to hear that you’re threatening people on the internet with disciplinary proceedings on their behalf.

deisedevil

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

Sweden havent seen 200k dead.

It was predictions like so that caused restrictions to be implemented in Ireland. That was the justification

Tis a shame we didn't just throw caution to the wind and see how we would get on so I suppose. I'm glad we didn't anyways. I'm delighted people of your mindset won't get your way.