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Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

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  • Registered Users Posts: 2,640 ✭✭✭Nermal


    'Dying with' vs. 'dying of' - at least some effort now going into making this distinction, with interesting outcomes...

    https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1261447081597841408


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Nermal wrote: »
    'Dying with' vs. 'dying of' - at least some effort now going into making this distinction, with interesting outcomes...

    https://twitter.com/kerpen/status/1261447081597841408

    So over 76% dying of rather than with COVID... at least can be put to bed then that most victims would have died anyway.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,620 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Is that what happend in Sweden?

    No they are an outlier though.
    You and G n L keep mentioning Sweden.
    Have you any experience of Sweden ? Have you ever worked or lived there ? What sort of social culture have they ? Are they like the Irish, the Brits or even the Germans ?
    Have you read any of the recent research on Vit D and its probable effect, if you have low levels , on the virus ?
    What has been there approach to testing? Did they protect their elderly any better than Ireland
    These questions and their answers are all relevant to the debate, but you don't go into detail about anything , just all soundbites taken out of context , to further your very particular POV.


  • Registered Users Posts: 801 ✭✭✭frillyleaf


    shnaek wrote: »
    Yeah, I thought it was going to 20km on Monday. In reality all that's happening is hardware stores are opening, so we are very much still in lock-down. The rich will be able to head over to Europe. I was quite depressed yesterday I'll admit when I realised how little is happening on Monday.

    So was I. Personally I would still consider this lockdown. I can’t believe we are still restricted to 5km. There’s very little changing apart from construction and meeting people outside


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    No they are an outlier though.
    You and G n L keep mentioning Sweden.
    Have you any experience of Sweden ? Have you ever worked or lived there ? What sort of social culture have they ? Are they like the Irish, the Brits or even the Germans ?
    Have you read any of the recent research on Vit D and its probable effect, if you have low levels , on the virus ?
    What has been there approach to testing? Did they protect their elderly any better than Ireland
    These questions and their answers are all relevant to the debate, but you don't go into detail about anything , just all soundbites taken out of context , to further your very particular POV.

    I didnt know that models predicting 100,000 dead Swedes can be counted as a "soundbite".

    Especially when they have less than 4,000 so far.

    But more importantly, and interestingly

    "Stockholm gambled in its response to coronavirus, but neither its economy nor its healthcare system have collapsed"

    Tegnell has been emphatic throughout. A degree of social distancing and avoiding crowds is enough. As for lockdown, “Nothing to do with [it] has a scientific basis.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/15/europe-emerges-lockdown-question-hangs-was-sweden-right


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  • Registered Users Posts: 13,620 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    But are you not at all concerned that these decisions are being made without sharing the decision-making rationale with the people affected by them?

    It’s incredibly vague when compared to the information we can be told - various prediction models, volumes of historical stats, graphs and charts galore.

    But no targets?

    This has been explained on all the threads and the briefings.
    Each target, ie testing capacity, R number, ICU numbers, case numbers , deaths , are all interrelated. They can't say when our deaths reach this number we will lift restrictions, if , for example infection in the community has started to rise.


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    Well this is surprising.

    "The country's largest teachers' union says primary school children might have to wear personal protective equipment when they go back to class."

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/into-teachers-and-students-might-need-ppe-when-schools-reopen-999941.html

    Especially when its been proven that under 14 year olds arent even as infectious as adults.

    Anyone here thinks children at the age of 7 8 9 10 11 12 wearing PPE is a sound idea?


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,620 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    I didnt know that models predicting 100,000 dead Swedes can be counted as a "soundbite".

    Especially when they have less than 4,000 so far.

    But more importantly, and interestingly

    "Stockholm gambled in its response to coronavirus, but neither its economy nor its healthcare system have collapsed"

    Tegnell has been emphatic throughout. A degree of social distancing and avoiding crowds is enough. As for lockdown, “Nothing to do with [it] has a scientific basis.”

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/may/15/europe-emerges-lockdown-question-hangs-was-sweden-right

    Yes , that was from another poster a few minutes ago.
    I could have quoted that article too.
    Soundbite .


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,828 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    GUARDIAN
    As Europe emerges from lockdown, the question hangs: was Sweden right?
    Simon Jenkins

    Stockholm gambled in its response to coronavirus, but neither its economy nor its healthcare system have collapsed


    Who on earth is right? We cannot all be right.

    One country has all but dropped off the Covid-19 radar: Sweden. Just two months ago, it held hands with Britain in rejecting total lockdown and trusting “social distancing”. Then on 23 March, Boris Johnson did a U-turn, leaving Sweden and, to a lesser extent, Germany, on its own. Since then the divergence has become radical and political. Sweden’s centre-left government, darling of Bernie Sanders and world liberalism, is suddenly lauded by the libertarian right.

    Like millions, I have become an armchair epidemiologist. The reason is instinctive. I am being ordered daily by my prime minister to live in fear of my life. I have come to exist in a miasma of R-rates, antigen tests, infection fatality ratios and “excess deaths”. Now, as Europe and the world emerge blearily to survey the wreckage of lockdown, the question is still left hanging. Was Sweden right?

    The one table that glares at us daily is the international league table of deaths per million. Even if the aggregates are unreliable, there is a crude reality to a body count. Yet the only conclusion to be drawn from the figures is that the league table is no help to policy.

    There is no correlation between fatalities and lockdown stringency. The most stringent lockdowns – as in China, Italy, Spain, New Zealand and Britain – have yielded both high and low deaths per million. Hi-tech has apparently “worked” in South Korea, but so has no-tech in Sweden. Sweden’s 319 deaths per million is far ahead of locked-down Norway’s 40 and Denmark’s 91, but it’s well behind locked-down UK’s 465 and Spain’s 569.

    Sweden’s light-touch policy is led by two scientists, Johan Giesecke and his protégé Anders Tegnell. The latter currently leads Stockholm’s strategy with daily matter-of-fact media appearances and 73% popular support. Unlike in politicised Britain, ministers do not regularly appear.

    Tegnell has been emphatic throughout. A degree of social distancing and avoiding crowds is enough. As for lockdown, “Nothing to do with [it] has a scientific basis.”

    To Giesecke, a mild-mannered veteran World Health Organization virologist, Covid-19 is “a tsunami sweeping the world”, but he notes that it threatens older, sick people above all. He admits that Sweden’s higher-than-average death rate shows it made mistakes. “At first we failed to shield the old and vulnerable.” Its economy has suffered from a collapse in exports, but it has kept itself open and at work, and has not seen the surge in “all-causes excess deaths” of the UK and other high-lockdown states. This surge seems to be increasing due to a partial collapse in other areas of critical health care.

    Where I find Sweden’s policy more of a gamble is in its faith in developing a “collective immunity” that will protect it from future outbreaks. Giesecke talks of half of all Swedes probably infected in some degree, and tests suggest that a quarter of people in Stockholm have the virus and will probably – but by no means certainly – be protected against any resurgence. This compares with just 2% of people in Oslo. That divergence in vulnerability can only be tested in the event of a second spike.

    More to the point, there is no evidence of mass immunity having developed anywhere else. In Germany another lockdown sceptic, the virologist Hendrik Streek, thinks countries could be approaching one third immunity, which could be hopeful. But as policy, the idea is unnerving to many. Such was the fear generated by “herd immunity” in Britain in March that the phrase itself has become barely mentionable.

    Yet according to Tegnell, whatever we think, “there is no other escape” but to find ways of living with this virus. There is no sign of a vaccine on the immediate horizon. We cannot ruin the world economy indefinitely. Better to concentrate on protecting our health services against it, should it return.

    The half-Swedish commentator Freddie Sayer has been closely monitoring this debate from the UK. He makes the point that with each passing week the rest of Europe moves steadily closer to imitating Sweden. It is doing so because modern economies – and their peoples – just cannot live with such crushing abnormality as they have seen these past two months.

    Britain now faces a challenge. I believe early criticism of Boris Johnson was unfair. He had a respectable case for proceeding on an evidence-based approach, had he only concentrated his attention on the high-risk health and care sectors. In his U-turn he opted for the politics of fear. He now has workers terrified of working, and parents terrified of school. He has frightened his economy into inertia.

    I share the view of scientists such as Cambridge’s David Spiegelhalter and Oxford’s Carl Heneghan that this virus is unprecedented in its infectiousness, but that it will pass. The chief variant will prove to be how governments reacted, and the toll they took on the rest of their healthcare and the wider economy.

    Sweden gambled in its response, but so did the rest of the world. South Africa’s lockdown threatens it with economic and political catastrophe. The UN warns that the world could lose four years of growth at a cost of $8.5 trillion. Famine and further disease will be rife. That was surely the greater gamble.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,640 ✭✭✭Nermal


    wakka12 wrote: »
    So over 76% dying of rather than with COVID... at least can be put to bed then that most victims would have died anyway.

    If anyone has said more than 50% of the death certificates listing COVID-19 as the cause of death were incorrect, feel free to quote them. I remember none.

    I do remember posts saying people dying of other causes were being recorded as COVID-19 just because they'd tested positive, which is accurate.

    I also remember posts saying that because it almost exclusively affects the very ill and elderly, that in terms of years of life lost, it's not as serious as if it affected the population at random. Also, still accurate.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Well this is surprising.

    "The country's largest teachers' union says primary school children might have to wear personal protective equipment when they go back to class."

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/into-teachers-and-students-might-need-ppe-when-schools-reopen-999941.html

    Especially when its been proven that under 14 year olds arent even as infectious as adults.

    Anyone here thinks children at the age of 7 8 9 10 11 12 wearing PPE is a sound idea?
    I'd say unsurprising. Lots of loose unqualified tongues bursting with idle speculation about. CMO et al won't even guess at tomorrow's outcomes yet the INTO know about September already? Great news for parents too!


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 305 ✭✭MrDavid1976


    Well this is surprising.

    "The country's largest teachers' union says primary school children might have to wear personal protective equipment when they go back to class."

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/into-teachers-and-students-might-need-ppe-when-schools-reopen-999941.html

    Especially when its been proven that under 14 year olds arent even as infectious as adults.

    Anyone here thinks children at the age of 7 8 9 10 11 12 wearing PPE is a sound idea?

    It is handy we have that small sized PPE from China then. Might get some use from it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 801 ✭✭✭frillyleaf


    12 weeks (and a day) at least according to the plan until they’re finished. Let that sink in - we’re not even half way since the start of the restrictions.
    Some people are going to be stopped working for 6 months. Mind boggling.

    I don’t understand what you mean about 12 weeks. Are we still in lockdown for another 6 weeks? I thought much more was happening on the 18th and am completely deflated reading that we basically are still locked down. It could have been better to take the hit harder at the start and open up earlier.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Nermal wrote: »
    If anyone has said more than 50% of the death certificates listing COVID-19 as the cause of death were incorrect, feel free to quote them. I remember none.

    I do remember posts saying people dying of other causes were being recorded as COVID-19 just because they'd tested positive, which is accurate.

    I also remember posts saying that because it almost exclusively affects the very ill and elderly, that in terms of years of life lost, it's not as serious as if it affected the population at random. Also, still accurate.

    Here is a peach for you.
    Most elderly people that died of Covid, were already dying of something else. Late stages of cancer, heart disease, advanced COPD.

    Sadly, old people die.

    But even the elderly are sick of lockdown. Why waste your remaining years in lockdown? Most elderly people spend a large part of life trying to find a better future for their children and grand children. Horrible to die knowing the place is burning to the ground.

    He said most. You wont have to look back through many pages to find countless others among the endless eroneous bull**** spouted with the utmost confidence


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,640 ✭✭✭Nermal


    wakka12 wrote: »
    Here is a peach for you.

    He said most. You wont have to look back through many pages to find countless others among the endless eroneous bull**** spouted with the utmost confidence

    "most elderly people that died of Covid, were already dying of something else."

    !=

    "most elderly people that died of Covid, actually died of something else."


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,786 ✭✭✭wakka12


    Nermal wrote: »
    "most elderly people that died of Covid, were already dying of something else."

    !=

    "most elderly people that died of Covid, actually died of something else."

    Yeah yeah, as if the tone of the post doesnt make it crystal clear exactly what he meant and you know he meant.


  • Registered Users Posts: 2,275 ✭✭✭CruelSummer


    Well this is surprising.

    "The country's largest teachers' union says primary school children might have to wear personal protective equipment when they go back to class."

    https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/into-teachers-and-students-might-need-ppe-when-schools-reopen-999941.html

    Especially when its been proven that under 14 year olds arent even as infectious as adults.

    Anyone here thinks children at the age of 7 8 9 10 11 12 wearing PPE is a sound idea?

    They are trying to make noise in the media re the lack of direction given to schools on how to reopen in September as most principals would need to know now to start making provisions over the summer. Hence all of these various scenarios being played out over the airways. Its result is scaring parents and children needlessly, how do parents prepare their children for Junior Infants?
    The leaders of this country need to stand up and say in all probability, schools should reopen as normal in September. The negative effects of social distancing, PPE, and other measures will far outweigh the effects of the virus on children in the long term the more this is tolerated by us as a population.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,620 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Nermal wrote: »
    If anyone has said more than 50% of the death certificates listing COVID-19 as the cause of death were incorrect, feel free to quote them. I remember none.

    I do remember posts saying people dying of other causes were being recorded as COVID-19 just because they'd tested positive, which is accurate.

    I also remember posts saying that because it almost exclusively affects the very ill and elderly, that in terms of years of life lost, it's not as serious as if it affected the population at random. Also, still accurate.

    It has been linked with cardiac related deaths and strokes causing death.
    Not all these are elderly patients but middle aged and without a previous history of cardiovascular disease.
    Now we have a connection with a newly discovered Paediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome , which another poster dismissed as "probable," "possibly connected", affecting young children who have had an infection some weeks before.
    These have been recommended to medics to consider in their diagnoses precisely because leading doctors and pathologists feel they are connected, and many of these cause death or at least morbidity, and add to the toll this virus takes.
    A lot of these people would have lived long and healthy lives were it not for this.
    Are you saying the numbers should not be taken into account?
    Or are you trying somehow to minimise the effects of this very nasty infection , by saying it is generally the elderly?


  • Registered Users Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭robbiezero


    The number of posters in this thread who are going to look very foolish come the Autumn is extraordinary when this takes off again. :eek:

    Same posters will claim they never pushed for premature opening of the economy and return to normal in the teeth of expert advice, precedents and warnings.

    I suspect many will disappear actually rather than be reminded!

    Learn to use the word if, you complete attention seeking spoofer.
    Or better still go back to predicting snow storms on the weather forum 3 or 4 times a year and getting it right once a decade.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,620 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    You need to calm down. This is not a rational post for an issue primarily in nursing home's.

    Fact is little we do outside of nursing home settings will effect what happens within

    Totally ignorant answer..again.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 154 ✭✭Flimsy_Boat


    Restrictions are lifted in Cork city. Place is mobbed. Queues around the block for English Market, Three Fools Coffee, Soma Coffee, Cameron's Fine Bakery. Even Supervalu was crazy busy. It's not even sunny!


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,828 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    Restrictions are lifted in Cork city. Place is mobbed. Queues around the block for English Market, Three Fools Coffee, Soma Coffee, Cameron's Fine Bakery. Even Supervalu was crazy busy. It's not even sunny!

    Are they social distancing? Maintaining a few feet distance?


  • Registered Users Posts: 3,447 ✭✭✭Ginger n Lemon


    Restrictions are lifted in Cork city. Place is mobbed. Queues around the block for English Market, Three Fools Coffee, Soma Coffee, Cameron's Fine Bakery. Even Supervalu was crazy busy. It's not even sunny!

    Seems like theres reverse psychology at play as Simon Harris was very clear yesterday "Advice from the government is clear, you should stay at home"

    Poor Simon. Completely lost it. he hasnt changed his tune since 12th of March lol talk about unable to adapt.


  • Registered Users Posts: 991 ✭✭✭Stormyteacup


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    This has been explained on all the threads and the briefings.
    Each target, ie testing capacity, R number, ICU numbers, case numbers , deaths , are all interrelated. They can't say when our deaths reach this number we will lift restrictions, if , for example infection in the community has started to rise.

    Right.

    So how do they decide when to lift restrictions? Do you think they know themselves what numbers they are aiming for?

    They have criteria, you can be sure.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,620 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    GUARDIAN
    As Europe emerges from lockdown, the question hangs: was Sweden right?
    Simon Jenkins

    Stockholm gambled in its response to coronavirus, but neither its economy nor its healthcare system have collapsed


    Who on earth is right? We cannot all be right.

    One country has all but dropped off the Covid-19 radar: Sweden. Just two months ago, it held hands with Britain in rejecting total lockdown and trusting “social distancing”. Then on 23 March, Boris Johnson did a U-turn, leaving Sweden and, to a lesser extent, Germany, on its own. Since then the divergence has become radical and political. Sweden’s centre-left government, darling of Bernie Sanders and world liberalism, is suddenly lauded by the libertarian right.

    Like millions, I have become an armchair epidemiologist. The reason is instinctive. I am being ordered daily by my prime minister to live in fear of my life. I have come to exist in a miasma of R-rates, antigen tests, infection fatality ratios and “excess deaths”. Now, as Europe and the world emerge blearily to survey the wreckage of lockdown, the question is still left hanging. Was Sweden right?

    The one table that glares at us daily is the international league table of deaths per million. Even if the aggregates are unreliable, there is a crude reality to a body count. Yet the only conclusion to be drawn from the figures is that the league table is no help to policy.

    There is no correlation between fatalities and lockdown stringency. The most stringent lockdowns – as in China, Italy, Spain, New Zealand and Britain – have yielded both high and low deaths per million. Hi-tech has apparently “worked” in South Korea, but so has no-tech in Sweden. Sweden’s 319 deaths per million is far ahead of locked-down Norway’s 40 and Denmark’s 91, but it’s well behind locked-down UK’s 465 and Spain’s 569.

    Sweden’s light-touch policy is led by two scientists, Johan Giesecke and his protégé Anders Tegnell. The latter currently leads Stockholm’s strategy with daily matter-of-fact media appearances and 73% popular support. Unlike in politicised Britain, ministers do not regularly appear.

    Tegnell has been emphatic throughout. A degree of social distancing and avoiding crowds is enough. As for lockdown, “Nothing to do with [it] has a scientific basis.”

    To Giesecke, a mild-mannered veteran World Health Organization virologist, Covid-19 is “a tsunami sweeping the world”, but he notes that it threatens older, sick people above all. He admits that Sweden’s higher-than-average death rate shows it made mistakes. “At first we failed to shield the old and vulnerable.” Its economy has suffered from a collapse in exports, but it has kept itself open and at work, and has not seen the surge in “all-causes excess deaths” of the UK and other high-lockdown states. This surge seems to be increasing due to a partial collapse in other areas of critical health care.

    Where I find Sweden’s policy more of a gamble is in its faith in developing a “collective immunity” that will protect it from future outbreaks. Giesecke talks of half of all Swedes probably infected in some degree, and tests suggest that a quarter of people in Stockholm have the virus and will probably – but by no means certainly – be protected against any resurgence. This compares with just 2% of people in Oslo. That divergence in vulnerability can only be tested in the event of a second spike.

    More to the point, there is no evidence of mass immunity having developed anywhere else. In Germany another lockdown sceptic, the virologist Hendrik Streek, thinks countries could be approaching one third immunity, which could be hopeful. But as policy, the idea is unnerving to many. Such was the fear generated by “herd immunity” in Britain in March that the phrase itself has become barely mentionable.

    Yet according to Tegnell, whatever we think, “there is no other escape” but to find ways of living with this virus. There is no sign of a vaccine on the immediate horizon. We cannot ruin the world economy indefinitely. Better to concentrate on protecting our health services against it, should it return.

    The half-Swedish commentator Freddie Sayer has been closely monitoring this debate from the UK. He makes the point that with each passing week the rest of Europe moves steadily closer to imitating Sweden. It is doing so because modern economies – and their peoples – just cannot live with such crushing abnormality as they have seen these past two months.

    Britain now faces a challenge. I believe early criticism of Boris Johnson was unfair. He had a respectable case for proceeding on an evidence-based approach, had he only concentrated his attention on the high-risk health and care sectors. In his U-turn he opted for the politics of fear. He now has workers terrified of working, and parents terrified of school. He has frightened his economy into inertia.

    I share the view of scientists such as Cambridge’s David Spiegelhalter and Oxford’s Carl Heneghan that this virus is unprecedented in its infectiousness, but that it will pass. The chief variant will prove to be how governments reacted, and the toll they took on the rest of their healthcare and the wider economy.

    Sweden gambled in its response, but so did the rest of the world. South Africa’s lockdown threatens it with economic and political catastrophe. The UN warns that the world could lose four years of growth at a cost of $8.5 trillion. Famine and further disease will be rife. That was surely the greater gamble.

    Yes that is the article posted above quoted in its entirety. Thanks ?


  • Registered Users Posts: 5,828 ✭✭✭podgeandrodge


    GUARDIAN
    As Europe emerges from lockdown, the question hangs: was Sweden right?
    Simon Jenkins

    Stockholm gambled in its response to coronavirus, but neither its economy nor its healthcare system have collapsed


    Who on earth is right? We cannot all be right.

    One country has all but dropped off the Covid-19 radar: Sweden. Just two months ago, it held hands with Britain in rejecting total lockdown and trusting “social distancing”. Then on 23 March, Boris Johnson did a U-turn, leaving Sweden and, to a lesser extent, Germany, on its own. Since then the divergence has become radical and political. Sweden’s centre-left government, darling of Bernie Sanders and world liberalism, is suddenly lauded by the libertarian right.

    Like millions, I have become an armchair epidemiologist. The reason is instinctive. I am being ordered daily by my prime minister to live in fear of my life. I have come to exist in a miasma of R-rates, antigen tests, infection fatality ratios and “excess deaths”. Now, as Europe and the world emerge blearily to survey the wreckage of lockdown, the question is still left hanging. Was Sweden right?

    The one table that glares at us daily is the international league table of deaths per million. Even if the aggregates are unreliable, there is a crude reality to a body count. Yet the only conclusion to be drawn from the figures is that the league table is no help to policy.

    There is no correlation between fatalities and lockdown stringency. The most stringent lockdowns – as in China, Italy, Spain, New Zealand and Britain – have yielded both high and low deaths per million. Hi-tech has apparently “worked” in South Korea, but so has no-tech in Sweden. Sweden’s 319 deaths per million is far ahead of locked-down Norway’s 40 and Denmark’s 91, but it’s well behind locked-down UK’s 465 and Spain’s 569.

    Sweden’s light-touch policy is led by two scientists, Johan Giesecke and his protégé Anders Tegnell. The latter currently leads Stockholm’s strategy with daily matter-of-fact media appearances and 73% popular support. Unlike in politicised Britain, ministers do not regularly appear.

    Tegnell has been emphatic throughout. A degree of social distancing and avoiding crowds is enough. As for lockdown, “Nothing to do with [it] has a scientific basis.”

    To Giesecke, a mild-mannered veteran World Health Organization virologist, Covid-19 is “a tsunami sweeping the world”, but he notes that it threatens older, sick people above all. He admits that Sweden’s higher-than-average death rate shows it made mistakes. “At first we failed to shield the old and vulnerable.” Its economy has suffered from a collapse in exports, but it has kept itself open and at work, and has not seen the surge in “all-causes excess deaths” of the UK and other high-lockdown states. This surge seems to be increasing due to a partial collapse in other areas of critical health care.

    Where I find Sweden’s policy more of a gamble is in its faith in developing a “collective immunity” that will protect it from future outbreaks. Giesecke talks of half of all Swedes probably infected in some degree, and tests suggest that a quarter of people in Stockholm have the virus and will probably – but by no means certainly – be protected against any resurgence. This compares with just 2% of people in Oslo. That divergence in vulnerability can only be tested in the event of a second spike.

    More to the point, there is no evidence of mass immunity having developed anywhere else. In Germany another lockdown sceptic, the virologist Hendrik Streek, thinks countries could be approaching one third immunity, which could be hopeful. But as policy, the idea is unnerving to many. Such was the fear generated by “herd immunity” in Britain in March that the phrase itself has become barely mentionable.

    Yet according to Tegnell, whatever we think, “there is no other escape” but to find ways of living with this virus. There is no sign of a vaccine on the immediate horizon. We cannot ruin the world economy indefinitely. Better to concentrate on protecting our health services against it, should it return.

    The half-Swedish commentator Freddie Sayer has been closely monitoring this debate from the UK. He makes the point that with each passing week the rest of Europe moves steadily closer to imitating Sweden. It is doing so because modern economies – and their peoples – just cannot live with such crushing abnormality as they have seen these past two months.

    Britain now faces a challenge. I believe early criticism of Boris Johnson was unfair. He had a respectable case for proceeding on an evidence-based approach, had he only concentrated his attention on the high-risk health and care sectors. In his U-turn he opted for the politics of fear. He now has workers terrified of working, and parents terrified of school. He has frightened his economy into inertia.

    I share the view of scientists such as Cambridge’s David Spiegelhalter and Oxford’s Carl Heneghan that this virus is unprecedented in its infectiousness, but that it will pass. The chief variant will prove to be how governments reacted, and the toll they took on the rest of their healthcare and the wider economy.

    Sweden gambled in its response, but so did the rest of the world. South Africa’s lockdown threatens it with economic and political catastrophe. The UN warns that the world could lose four years of growth at a cost of $8.5 trillion. Famine and further disease will be rife. That was surely the greater gamble.



    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Yes that is the article posted above quoted in its entirety. Thanks ?

    You're welcome.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,620 ✭✭✭✭Goldengirl


    Nermal wrote: »
    If anyone has said more than 50% of the death certificates listing COVID-19 as the cause of death were incorrect, feel free to quote them. I remember none.

    I do remember posts saying people dying of other causes were being recorded as COVID-19 just because they'd tested positive, which is accurate.

    I also remember posts saying that because it almost exclusively affects the very ill and elderly, that in terms of years of life lost, it's not as serious as if it affected the population at random. ]quote



    It has been linked with cardiac related deaths and strokes causing death.
    Not all these are elderly patients but middle aged and without a previous history of cardiovascular disease.
    Now we have a connection with a newly discovered Paediatric Inflammatory Multisystem Syndrome , which another poster dismissed as "probable," "possibly connected", affecting young children who have had an infection some weeks before. None of these will as yet be any more than probable or possible as these are all new connections being made with no historical data .
    These have been recommended to medics to consider in their diagnoses precisely because leading doctors and pathologists feel they are connected, and many of these cause death or at least morbidity, and add to the toll this virus takes.
    A lot of these people would have lived long and healthy lives were it not for this.
    Are you saying the numbers should not be taken into account?
    Or are you trying somehow to minimise the effects of this very nasty infection , by saying it is generally the elderly?


  • Posts: 3,656 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    frillyleaf wrote: »
    So was I. Personally I would still consider this lockdown. I can’t believe we are still restricted to 5km. There’s very little changing apart from construction and meeting people outside

    the 5km bit is the hardest thing right now (I think).

    Next time there's clapping I'm not clapping for health care workers.

    I'm clapping for the parents of all those young kids at home since 12th March, parents who are also working full time from home and dealing with phone calls from clients and their manager, at the same time as schooling their kids, parents of children with physical and mental disabilities and no respite, people just over cancer surgery with no follow up supports, people waiting for diagnosis of a lump. I'm clapping for people who have lost a loved one anytime in the last 5 years and are still so recently bereaved. Their sadness and loneliness must be crippling.
    I'm clapping for anyone who opened a small business in the last year, spent so much money just to get a place open, decked the premises out, bought all their stock, many of these will never recover. We are all stuck at home. We are meant to be all in this together. We're not.

    I really don't think Tony Holohan thinks of anything but Covid and his reputation. I am hugely disappointed in Leo Varadkar as he is the one who is meant to be able to see the overall picture, not just the health concerns, but the economic and overall well being of the Irish citizens. I can't believe how one dimensional this crisis has become!

    Where are the other ministers at the moment, where is Simon Coveney? He is usually a rock of sense. Leo is a "yes" man. Simon Coveney is a negotiator and has a brain. Its like everyone apart from Leo, Simon Harris and Tony Holohan have gone into a Covid coma like the rest of us! Why is nobody asking questions?


  • Registered Users Posts: 8,412 ✭✭✭FintanMcluskey


    Goldengirl wrote: »
    Or are you trying somehow to minimise the effects of this very nasty infection , by saying it is generally the elderly?

    Ah stop. It is the elderly this is lethal too.

    We now know this is lethal to primarily the elderly. The median age of death is beyond life expectancy in Ireland.

    Outside of that age group it's no worse than any seasonal respiratory illness.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 154 ✭✭Flimsy_Boat


    Are they social distancing? Maintaining a few feet distance?

    In some cases yes, but not always. There's just a lot more people walking around generally.


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