Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Ginger n Lemon

MadYaker wrote: »

Where did you get those numbers from?

Pay attention now ok? I dont want to be showing you how bad and false "models" really are.

"The model stressed its own urgency as well. Sweden would have to adopt a lockdown policy similar to the rest of Europe immediately if it wished to avert catastrophe. As the authors explained, under “conservative” estimates using their model “the current Swedish public-health strategy will result in a peak intensive-care load in May that exceeds pre-pandemic capacity by over 40-fold, with a median mortality of 96,000 (95% CI 52,000 to 183,000)” being realized by the end of June."

https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/

Can we please stop acting like fools? The models we've been presented from the very start are not even 10% accurate. Lockdown or no lockdown.

Remember this.

Kermit.de.frog

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

20 to 25% of construction workers back on Monday, are you sure in your prediction?

Director of construction in Ireland has said this.

100% sure.

Not all construction sites will be ready for Monday as the CIF has said.

This is not 2010 when the economy had a crippling structural imbalance. This is of a far temporary nature. It's not the same dynamic.

Lyle

Stheno wrote: »

Their key metrics appear to be new cases, cases in hospital, and cases in ICU along with testing capacity, those are what they consistently refer to

Tony Holohan refuses point blank to even give a range of figures, e.g. we cannot move to phase two if we se a 10 day trend in downward numbers of cases, hospital cases, and ICU numbers, and 99% of all tests in that time completed and contact tracing for positive done within 3 days

That detail is what he has several times refused to give

In terms of ICU numbers, which appear to have the most weight of importance, while the number of Covid cases are falling, the number of non-covid are rising, so we mostly end up with around the same number of ICU beds (think it's been hovering around 155/156 the last 5/6 days) so it seems like an odd metric to weigh things on. There could be a lot of non-Covid patients now needing ICU because they've avoided or had treatments postponed over the last two months.

Realistically we just need better test and trace, and if we have excess capacity like last week where we had 45k tests vs 90k capacity, we should be using that excess capacity to test randomly in various communities to try and build a greater understanding of where we're at, at that level, around the county

I like Germany's approach to this, I think they've it set up so if one of their regions goes over 50 cases per 100,000, they lock it down again. I would hope our lot would look to it as a a possible way out, when you look at the incidence ratings per county its clear that some are vastly more challenging than others. They don't seem to want to divide the place up though so it seems unlikely. Hopefully we're given criteria this week, the moving goalposts are a feckin dose.

growleaves

Stark wrote: »

That's Georgia, the country near Russia. He's talking about the US state of Georgia.

Also that worldometer link shows active cases declining.

Georgia (the country) only locked down Tblisi.

WhiteMemento9

Colibri wrote: »

Getting heated in here. Off to watch something on Netflix! Have a good night folks.

It isn't really though, most sensible people seemed to have abandoned the thread. All that is left is a load of people who are on the extreme in regards to the status quo and now seem to think they are disease control experts, economists and data analysis experts all rollled into one that know exactly the strategy the country should now be taking. :pac:

The rest of us and most people are just getting on with it continuing to wait for the actual people who are educated, knowledgeable and skilled in those things to continue issuing guidance and advice that we can follow.

SusieBlue

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I have no doubt at all that the majority of people on COVID payments will be back in work being paid by the end of the summer.

In response you'll deny that and claim the world is falling down around our ears.

Simply not true.

That’s a very grand assumption to make. Even the businesses that survive this won’t be in a position to take back all of their staff.

If restaurants can only operate at half capacity because of social distancing are they going to need all their waiters and waitresses?
If pubs are only doing table service are they going to need the same amount of bar staff?

Have a friend who works in a crèche and she has already been told that if the government insist on reducing the number of children in each room to incorporate social distancing, they won’t be able to accommodate roughly half the children on their books.
Which means the extra staff they previously needed to make up ratios in each room will be permanently let go - roughly just over a third of the staff.
Crèches are oversubscribed as it it, so any parent whose child loses their place won’t be able to go back to work even if they have a job to go to.

If social distancing is here to stay it’s wilful ignorance to suggest most of the workforce will be going back to work. Less customers in these businesses will mean less requirement for staff, that goes without saying.
And that’s just the business that will be in a position to reopen, many won’t.

jibber5000

MadYaker wrote: »

Compare the numbers that the models predicted to what we actually had here in Ireland and the difference is the effect of the lockdown. Varadker said the modelling predicted 15,000 cases by the end of march. So we implemented lockdown in mid march and slowed the virus right down so as not to overwhelm the health service as happened in Italy and Spain and New York to a lesser extent. Its really not that complicated.

I agree that we should move out of lockdown quicker. But to say that the lockdown is pointless and had no effect is utterly moronic.

The modelling was predicting 15,000 cases by the end of March with a lockdown.

They were all based on the imperial college London model which has been proven to be way off.

Likewise a consultant from the HSE said on here that upto 150,000 people could die. To even suggest 3% of the population could have died seems laughable now but this is what was being told to us.

Ginger n Lemon

Stark wrote: »

That's Georgia, the country near Russia. He's talking about the US state of Georgia.

Also your worldometer link shows active cases declining for that country.

Projections based on numbers so far for US state of Georgia look pretty good btw. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/georgia

Talk about getting owned.... :pac:

Ordinary man

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

20 to 25% of construction workers back on Monday, are you sure in your prediction?

Director of construction in Ireland has said this.

Who is the director of construction?

Ginger n Lemon

jibber5000 wrote: »

The modelling was predicting 15,000 cases by the end of March with a lockdown.

They were all based on the imperial college London model which has been proven to be way off.

Likewise a consultant from the HSE said on here that upto 150,000 people could die. To even suggest 3% of the population could have died seems laughable now but this is what was being told to us.

Yesss, I was going to say that Leo Varadkar prediction of 15,000 cases by end of March WITH a lockdown in place was, erm, off. off? REALLY OFF.

He hasnt recovered since.

_Kaiser_

I'm just catching up with today's report in the IT over dinner and found an interesting paragraph :

The reproduction rate of the virus is currently between 0.4 and 0.6. This means it takes two Covid-19 patients to infect one other person on average. At its height in early March, the reproduction rate was 3.7 and before Covid-19 restrictions were imposed it was 1.6.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-15-new-deaths-reported-in-the-republic-new-cases-below-100-for-first-time-since-march-1.4255433


So... Before any restrictions were imposed, without doing anything, the transmission rate had already more than halved, and since then with nearly 2 months of restrictions it's gone down only another point?

Am I missing something? Because if not you'd have to wonder if the level of restrictions (and the damage they've caused to the economy) were justified at all?

jibber5000

Stark wrote: »

That's Georgia, the country near Russia. He's talking about the US state of Georgia.

Also your worldometer link shows active cases declining for that country.

Projections based on numbers so far for US state of Georgia look pretty good btw. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/georgia

Considering it was in reply to a comment about Republican states reaction to Covid, I presumed that would have been obvious.

growleaves

Kermit aren't you an FG supporter?

Paschal Donohue warned of 300k to be out of work for years.

Goldengirl

Lyle wrote: »

In terms of ICU numbers, which appear to have the most weight of importance, while the number of Covid cases are falling, the number of non-covid are rising, so we mostly end up with around the same number of ICU beds (think it's been hovering around 155/156 the last 5/6 days) so it seems like an odd metric to weigh things on. There could be a lot of non-Covid patients now needing ICU because they've avoided or had treatments postponed over the last two months.

Realistically we just need better test and trace, and if we have excess capacity like last week where we had 45k tests vs 90k capacity, we should be using that excess capacity to test randomly in various communities to try and build a greater understanding of where we're at, at that level, around the county

I like Germany's approach to this, I think they've it set up so if one of their regions goes over 50 cases per 100,000, they lock it down again. I would hope our lot would look to it as a a possible way out, when you look at the incidence ratings per county its clear that some are vastly more challenging than others. They don't seem to want to divide the place up though so it seems unlikely. Hopefully we're given criteria this week, the moving goalposts are a feckin dose.

When they give ICU beds as a metric , it is Covid patients they are talking about, not non Covid .
Testing randomly does not make things clearer as a negative result doesn't mean the patient is negative and not a risk, just virus not detected at the time of testing.

ceadaoin.

jibber5000 wrote: »

Georgia's been open 3 weeks and cases continue to decline.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1261353327113244675

That doesn't fit the narrative unfortunately.

Positive news doesn't sell as well as fear does clearly.

If certain people actually cared about getting the virus under control rather than just thriving on the negative stories then they would post that themselves. But they never do. Never any good news with some.

FintanMcluskey

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I'm just catching up with today's report in the IT over dinner and found an interesting paragraph :



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-15-new-deaths-reported-in-the-republic-new-cases-below-100-for-first-time-since-march-1.4255433


So... Before any restrictions were imposed, without doing anything, the transmission rate had already more than halved, and since then with nearly 2 months of restrictions it's gone down only another point?

Am I missing something? Because if not you'd have to wonder if the level of restrictions (and the damage they've caused to the economy) were justified at all?

What evidence exists that restrictions work?

Stark

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

I'm just catching up with today's report in the IT over dinner and found an interesting paragraph :



https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/coronavirus-15-new-deaths-reported-in-the-republic-new-cases-below-100-for-first-time-since-march-1.4255433


So... Before any restrictions were imposed, without doing anything, the transmission rate had already more than halved, and since then with nearly 2 months of restrictions it's gone down only another point?

Am I missing something? Because if not you'd have to wonder if the level of restrictions (and the damage they've caused to the economy) were justified at all?

Well there's a huge difference between 1.6 and 0.6. At 1.6, cases are growing in an exponential manner. At 0.6, they're declining in a similar manner. So we absolutely had to act when the R0 number was at 1.6.

Concern in my mind is at 0.9, they're also declining and the trade-offs of light touch restrictions that get us that far vs extreme restrictions which destroy the economy in order to get us from 0.9 to 0.6 aren't being given enough consideration.

MadYaker

jibber5000 wrote: »

The modelling was predicting 15,000 cases by the end of March with a lockdown.

They were all based on the imperial college London model which has been proven to be way off.

Likewise a consultant from the HSE said on here that upto 150,000 people could die. To even suggest 3% of the population could have died seems laughable now but this is what was being told to us.

You have link that backs that up?

We did our own modelling we didn't base it off the UK. Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group was what we based our plan off not the UK.

_Kaiser_

Stark wrote: »

Well there's a huge difference between 1.6 and 0.6. At 1.6, cases are growing in an exponential manner. At 0.6, they're declining in a similar manner.

Yep but from the above it would suggest that the virus was already dying out before we did anything at all?

I'm not saying we should have done nothing, but did we overreact even at that early stage?

Jim Root

It was only a matter of time before joe public turned on the CMO

Stark

Article is somewhat ambiguous but I think they're referring to the full lockdown when they say Covid restrictions? We did have some lighter restrictions between early March and the full lockdown.

WhiteMemento9

jibber5000 wrote: »

Georgia's been open 3 weeks and cases continue to decline.

https://mobile.twitter.com/ClayTravis/status/1261353327113244675

That doesn't fit the narrative unfortunately.

It was opened on April 30th. That is closer to 2 weeks. As we know from the earlier waves of Coronavirus the rates of infection and the periods of time it was ciruclating in countries before the spikes mean that we won't see the true impacts of reopening for around 3-4 weeks. The same way we came down after lockdown will be the same way we see things come up. I am not making a judegement on what will happen in Georgia just saying that your narrtive is the one here not really giving the full picture.

Ginger n Lemon

Stark wrote: »

Article is somewhat ambiguous but I think they're referring to the full lockdown when they say Covid restrictions? We did have some lighter restrictions between early March and the full lockdown.

Yes. The same light restrictions Sweden have of no public gatherings over 50 people, social distancing, wash hands.

That has halved the R number in early March.

That has also reduced the R number down to under 1.

Lockdown was there just bankrupting businesses.

MadYaker

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Pay attention now ok? I dont want to be showing you how bad and false "models" really are.

"The model stressed its own urgency as well. Sweden would have to adopt a lockdown policy similar to the rest of Europe immediately if it wished to avert catastrophe. As the authors explained, under “conservative” estimates using their model “the current Swedish public-health strategy will result in a peak intensive-care load in May that exceeds pre-pandemic capacity by over 40-fold, with a median mortality of 96,000 (95% CI 52,000 to 183,000)” being realized by the end of June."

https://www.aier.org/article/imperial-college-model-applied-to-sweden-yields-preposterous-results/

Can we please stop acting like fools? The models we've been presented from the very start are not even 10% accurate. Lockdown or no lockdown.

Remember this.

Sweden has twice our ICU capacity and they already have a way higher death rate with a third of the testing so their numbers are under reported.

You need to look at all countries and not just sweden. Every european country that implemented lockdown saw a significant drop in cases 2 weeks later (the incubation times for this virus) Are you saying that was coincidence in every single country where the pattern was repeated?

crossman47

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Yep but from the above it would suggest that the virus was already dying out before we did anything at all?

I'm not saying we should have done nothing, but did we overreact even at that early stage?

That misses the point completely. At 1.6 it was growing exponentionally. it had to be stopped in its tracks.

Goldengirl

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Yesss, I was going to say that Leo Varadkar prediction of 15,000 cases by end of March WITH a lockdown in place was, erm, off. off? REALLY OFF.

He hasnt recovered since.

That prediction was if nothing was done except social distancing and the R number continued as it was.
Off, Wayyy off...you are

FintanMcluskey

jibber5000 wrote: »

The modelling was predicting 15,000 cases by the end of March with a lockdown.

They were all based on the imperial college London model which has been proven to be way off.

Likewise a consultant from the HSE said on here that upto 150,000 people could die. To even suggest 3% of the population could have died seems laughable now but this is what was being told to us.

After listening to guff like above its only natural that crutical thinking people are now questioning what the fcuk is going on and why are we the most restricted citizens in Europe?

MadYaker

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

What evidence exists that restrictions work?

Every single european country where cases dropped after lockdown?

Ginger n Lemon

MadYaker wrote: »

Sweden has twice our ICU capacity and they already have a way higher death rate with a third of the testing so their numbers are under reported.

You need to look at all countries and not just sweden. Every european country that implemented lockdown saw a significant drop in cases 2 weeks later (the incubation times for this virus) Are you saying that was coincidence in every single country where the pattern was repeated?

This is a load of rubbish. First you ask for a link. Once link is provided to you, you retreat to "you need to look at other countries not just Sweden".

Idk why I am evening responding to you, you didnt know there is a US state Georgia. Well, you live and learn. Just like you live and you learn that the "models" are a load of ****e.

MadYaker

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

This is a load of rubbish. First you ask for a link. Once link is provided to you, you retreat to "you need to look at other countries not just Sweden".

Idk why I am evening responding to you, you didnt know there is a US state Georgia. Well, you live and learn. Just like you live and you learn that the "models" are a load of ****e.

I think its reasonable to look a variety of countries including sweden to get a balanced view of what is happening. You are picking one single country and basing your position on that because it suits your own views.