Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Ginger n Lemon

Goldengirl wrote: »

That prediction was if nothing was done except social distancing and the R number continued as it was.
Off, Wayyy off...you are

Could you come again? I dont understand what you are trying to say.

FintanMcluskey

MadYaker wrote: »

Every single european country where cases dropped after lockdown?

As in Sweden?

Benimar

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Yep but from the above it would suggest that the virus was already dying out before we did anything at all?

I'm not saying we should have done nothing, but did we overreact even at that early stage?

There is an enormous difference between those two figures. At 0.6 cases decline and we are at Phase 5 in August. At 1.6 we would be locked down next week.

Angela Merkel gave a good explanation of how it applied to Germany. How even a movement from 0.9 to 1.2 would have their Health System at full capacity next month.

FintanMcluskey

Jim Root wrote: »

It was only a matter of time before joe public turned on the CMO

In this case about 2 years ago

WhiteMemento9

Why all the posts about Georgia specifically. Do other places like Texas not deserve a shout out? Wonder why.

MadYaker

FintanMcluskey wrote: »

As in Sweden?

So you think Italy and spain should have done nothing as their hospitals got overwhelmed? They should have just continued on as normal?

ceadaoin.

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

It was opened on April 30th. That is closer to 2 weeks. As we know from the earlier waves of Coronavirus the rates of infection and the periods of time it was ciruclating in countries before the spikes mean that we won't see the true impacts of reopening for around 3-4 weeks. The same way we came down after lockdown will be the same way we see things come up. I am not making a judegement on what will happen in Georgia just saying that your narrtive is the one here not really giving the full picture.

Nope. It started to reopen before the 30th. Here is an article dated 24th April talking about how salons , gyms and more were open

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/24/us/georgia-coronavirus-reopening-businesses-friday/index.html

Lyle

Goldengirl wrote: »

When they give ICU beds as a metric , it is Covid patients they are talking about, not non Covid.

I thought the metric is based on how many available beds there are altogether so we have more capacity in case there's another little surge in Covid cases needing ICU?

In which case it kinda doesn't matter how many Covid cases are in there, it's about numbers overall and they're fairly steady even with falling numbers of Covid patients... Say 50 more Covid cases leave ICU next week, but 50 patients with other illnesses go in - what then? The same amount of beds are still occupied, and the same number are still available, the occupied ones are just full of varied patients rather than Covid.

Open to correction and understanding on this though! I haven't been able to source anything concrete, this is just my interpretation of how the ICU metric works.

Goldengirl wrote: »

Testing randomly does not make things clearer as a negative result doesn't mean the patient is negative and not a risk, just not at the time of testing.

Sorry, I wasn't specific enough there alright in my phrasing. They should study certain problem areas and do random or targeted testing within those problem areas where they see a broader pattern of high community transmission and infection. Just testing totally randomly would be pointless alright.

jibber5000

MadYaker wrote: »

You have link that backs that up?

We did our own modelling we didn't base it off the UK. Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group was what we based our plan off not the UK.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21313G

Leo speaking when the lockdown was introduced.

But we didn't construct a model ourselves. We were one of the other countries which followed Prof Ferguson's report.

"Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policy making in the UK and other countries in the recent weeks".

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiQhODbibnpAhXMThUIHaT4ANAQFjAEegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw1hsNx-bJFA4q9qC2xTRHVd

MadYaker

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Could you come again? I dont understand what you are trying to say.

She is making the point that the models didn't account for our lockdown, which they didn't the gov stated as much at the time. Ill see if i can find a link to that press conference.

jibber5000

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

Why all the posts about Georgia specifically. Do other places like Texas not deserve a shout out? Wonder why.

It does. As well as Florida which is doing really well. I was just referencing Georgia as an example which doesn't fit the lockdown narritive.

MrDavid1976

What is interesting is that we were killed pointing elsewhere on the lockdown, yet when we point at other S to open up quicker people say we are different.

Goldengirl

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Yep but from the above it would suggest that the virus was already dying out before we did anything at all?

I'm not saying we should have done nothing, but did we overreact even at that early stage?

If you remember cases were doubling every 2 to 3 days even at those lower levels, so many were infected in the community.
More people infected , larger numbers, every 0.1 point increase is multiples of cases .
You know this , right ?

MadYaker

jibber5000 wrote: »

https://www.google.com/amp/s/mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKBN21313G

Leo speaking when the lockdown was introduced.

But we didn't construct a model ourselves. We were one of the other countries which followed Prof Ferguson's report.

"Here we present the results of epidemiological modelling which has informed policy making in the UK and other countries in the recent weeks".

https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-NPI-modelling-16-03-2020.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwiQhODbibnpAhXMThUIHaT4ANAQFjAEegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw1hsNx-bJFA4q9qC2xTRHVd

Thats for the UK? I see nothing in that article about modelling at all. Professor Philip Nolan, Chair of the NPHET Irish Epidemiological Modelling Advisory Group was responsible for constructing our models.

As i understand it. Our models predicted 15,000 cases by the end of march which would have been a disaster as that rate of infection would have overwhelmed the ICUs. So we implemented a lockdown to push that peak out into April. Slow the spread right down so less people are presenting at hospital at the same time. And it seems to have worked. I agree we should open up a bit faster, but I think we got it pretty much right.

WhiteMemento9

ceadaoin. wrote: »

Nope. It started to reopen before the 30th. Here is an article dated 24th April talking about how salons , gyms and more were open

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/24/us/georgia-coronavirus-reopening-businesses-friday/index.html

Well we should find out in a true sense how they are getting on in the next few weeks. I am glad that places like this are willing to be human guinea pigs for the rest of us.

MrDavid1976

Goldengirl wrote: »

If you remember cases were doubling every 2 to 3 days even at those lower levels, so many were infected in the community.
More people infected , larger numbers, every 0.1 point increase is multiples of cases .
You know this , right ?

I agree with you that the lockdown af the time was necessary

Do you think the current plan to ease restrictions is correct? Is it too slow? Is it too long?

Looking at where the evidence is now.

WhiteMemento9

jibber5000 wrote: »

It does. As well as Florida which is doing really well. I was just referencing Georgia as an example which doesn't fit the lockdown narritive.

It does? Texas is currently experiencing growth in numbers and deaths? You understand the exponential growth in the virus that has been talked about to death, excuse the the awful pun. These things start off slowly and then explode when you aren't curbing the spread with extreme measure. While you have rising number of cases it seems the last thing you should be doing is lifting restrictions.

MadYaker

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

I agree with you that the lockdown af the time was necessary

Do you think the current plan to ease restrictions is correct? Is it too slow? Is it too long?

Looking at where the evidence is now.

I think its too slow. Hospitals are basically empty if the HSE are to be believed.

Goldengirl

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Could you come again? I dont understand what you are trying to say.

Maybe try reading your own post that I replied to , then you would get the context and the meaning 🙄

growleaves

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

Why all the posts about Georgia specifically. Do other places like Texas not deserve a shout out? Wonder why.

Lol

We've heard a lot about NYC as well.

South Dakota, without a lockdown, had an outbreak seven times less deadly than Illinois.

If you think some State should be highlighted for its relevance, why not post about it yourself?

Ginger n Lemon

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

Well we should find out in a true sense how they are getting on in the next few weeks. I am glad that places like this are willing to be human guinea pigs for the rest of us.

We are the only country on earth to shut down pubs, barbers and gyms for 5 months. We are the guinea pigs.

road_high

growleaves wrote: »

Kermit aren't you an FG supporter?

Paschal Donohue warned of 300k to be out of work for years.

I’m a FG voter and can see the madness clear as day. Donohoe isn’t strong enough at all, you need a Charlie Mccreevy type in there. He’s clearly muzzled by Leo, Simon and all the other “lives are more important “ virtue signallers.

MadYaker

growleaves wrote: »

Lol

We've heard a lot about NYC as well.

South Dakota, without a lockdown, had an outbreak seven times less deadly than Illinois.

If you think some State should be highlighted for its relevance, why not post about it yourself?

So the logical conclusion is that every country has to do whats right for them. Sweden are obviously happy with a lot more people dying.

SusieBlue

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

It does? Texas is currently experiencing growth in numbers and deaths? You understand the exponential growth in the virus that has been talked about to death, excuse the the awful pun. These things start off slowly and then explode when you aren't curbing the spread with extreme measure. While you have rising number of cases it seems the last thing you should be doing is lifting restrictions.

Even if this was true, with no cure and no vaccine are we supposed to take these extreme measures forever?
Do we stay locked in our houses indefinitely, with the economy on its knees and our health system paralysed just to suppress the numbers?
Can you not see how insane that idea even is?

growleaves

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

Well we should find out in a true sense how they are getting on in the next few weeks. I am glad that places like this are willing to be human guinea pigs for the rest of us.

You would think from this statement that lockdown was some tried-and-tested method.

*We* are human guinea pigs.

Some East Asian countries used traditional pandemic measures like border control, quarantine etc. We're the ones running wild experiments.

WhiteMemento9

growleaves wrote: »

Lol

We've heard a lot about NYC as well.

South Dakota, without a lockdown, had an outbreak seven times less deadly than Illinois.

If you think some State should be highlighted for its relevance, why not post about it yourself?

I don't want to pick specific states as I am not trying to argue any particular point. When you are arguing towards a specific end then you can't cherry-picking states to suit your agenda was what I was trying to point out. There is an awful amount of finding data to suit arguments in this thread at the moment.

growleaves

MadYaker wrote: »

So the logical conclusion is that every country has to do whats right for them. Sweden are obviously happy with a lot more people dying.

They are not happy that they allowed the virus to spread to nursing homes. Nor are we.

Lesson learned: protect nursing homes, or even change the structure of nursing homes as Leo Varadkar suggested.

WhiteMemento9

SusieBlue wrote: »

Even if this was true, with no cure and no vaccine are we supposed to take these extreme measures forever?
Do we stay locked in our houses indefinitely, with the economy on its knees and our health system paralysed just to suppress the numbers?
Can you not see how insane that idea even is?

That isn't the idea. We have a road map to come out of lockdown.

growleaves

WhiteMemento9 wrote: »

I don't want to pick specific states as I am not trying to argue any particular point. When you are arguing towards a specific end then you can't cherry-picking states to suit your agenda was what I was trying to point out. There is an awful amount of finding data to suit arguments in this thread at the moment.

Yeah I get it. But I am deliberately picking counter-examples of the mainstream assumptions and highlighting them. I assume everyone knows that's what I'm doing.

I would like to see balanced analyses - the good, the bad and the ugly - in article or book-length form.

This is social media so there's going to be a lot of short posts piled on each other and petty sniping. It's the medium.

MadYaker

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

We are the only country on earth to shut down pubs, barbers and gyms for 5 months. We are the guinea pigs.

5 months???? Pubs and restaurants all over europe were closed for weeks. In Paris and Madrid for 6 or 7 weeks people were allowed to leave their houses once a week for shopping and that was it. Outdoor excersise banned. Kids not allowed out at all, police on the streets 24/7 stopping everyone. Not sure if it was the same in Italy as I don't know anyone who lives there but id imagine it was similar.