Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

ek motor

wakka12 wrote: »

Iran is now experiencing a second wave it seems after relaxing restrictions, despite the population apparently having a large number of people with antibodies. Cases growing consistently by several hundred daily over the last 14 days, reported 2300 new cases today, the highest number since April 5th

Widely acknowledged Iran are cooking their numbers.

seamus

nickkinneg wrote: »

I would reckon this is the relaxation before the next lockdown remember Spanish flu came in 3 waves the last 2 more deadly than the 1st. Sorry to play devils advocate. The 2nd wave affected more young people and was a deadlier strain. The 3rd more deadly than the 1st but not as deadly as the second - effecting more of the Australia region. Late autumn/winter is when it will renew its onslaught. Just my opinion

The potential for a mutation into a deadlier strain is a possibility, but there are a lot of factors here that don't match up with that pandemic;

- This is not influenza
- There is no world war raging
- Our knowledge of and ability to control secondary infections is far better than it was in 1918.

The reality is that a deadlier form of the virus circulating would cause it to die out faster (serious cases isolate faster), whereas if it evolves into something much milder (closer to a common cold), then our ability to stop it will be non-existent and we may as well give up.

This virus is right now occupying an evolutionary sweet spot between virulence and fatality.

Mic 1972 wrote: »

if the antibodies are strong and lasting any new wave will be less devastating than this one. The Spanish flue, being a flue, didn't provide good antibodies and people could catch it multiple times

That's not actually the case, one of the reasons we know we had 3 "waves" is because anyone who caught the first strain in wave 1 remained immune in the next two waves. Thus, it was broadly the same virus, but slightly more deadly.

wakka12

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

Well - on that basis we have to go back to Phase 0.

No, I have no idea what the context in Iran is or if they relaxed too quickly, but it is just interesting to observe how well relexation of restrictions is going in other parts of the world

is_that_so

Conte.. wrote: »

Might be as well now for the virus to spread while we have the chance

Before holohan and varadkar get the jitters again

We'll see where we are by week's end. This thing is not hiding out waiting to pounce!

Rodin

Queuing outside HomeBase for an hour?

Could ya be bothered?

growleaves

wakka12 wrote: »

Iran is now experiencing a second wave it seems after relaxing restrictions, despite the population apparently having a large number of people with antibodies. Cases growing consistently by several hundred daily over the last 14 days, reported 2300 new cases today, the highest number since April 5th

Reported by who? I thought we were disregarding info from dictatorships with low Press Freedom, e.g. Belarus, Vietnam etc.

MrDavid1976

RTÉ just now:

“Individuals do not control this, it is the virus that will decide and there could be further closures”.

Seriously. What kind of planet are these people on? Individual (and corporate and State) behaviour will decide otherwise we may as well lock down for ever or try to adjust.

MrDavid1976

Rodin wrote: »

Queuing outside HomeBase for an hour?

Could ya be bothered?

I can’t but can see why people would.

is_that_so

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

RTÉ just now:

“Individuals do not control this, it is the virus that will decide and there could be further closures”.

Seriously. What kind of planet are these people on? Individual (and corporate and State) behaviour will decide otherwise we may as well lock down for ever or try to adjust.

Was that George Lee who said that?

Conte..

is_that_so wrote: »

We'll see where we are by week's end. This thing is not hiding out waiting to pounce!

Hospitals are empty

It's going to spread one way or another

polesheep

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

RTÉ just now:

“Individuals do not control this, it is the virus that will decide and there could be further closures”.

Seriously. What kind of planet are these people on? Individual (and corporate and State) behaviour will decide otherwise we may as well lock down for ever or try to adjust.

I have visions of a big blob with eyes, in a glass dome, making decisions. Journalism is dead.

MrDavid1976

is_that_so wrote: »

Was that George Lee who said that?

Ingrid Miley

is_that_so

Conte.. wrote: »

Hospitals are empty

It's going to spread one way or another

And again from what apparently hidden reservoir of disease? Numbers may well go up for a bit but now we almost have a system to respond to that effectively.

LiquidZeb

[Deleted User] wrote: »

That is scary. Should give some people pause for thought...

Yes scary Ireland too might suddenly transform into a country of 80 million people with one of the most polluted cities on the planet in the form of Tehran. Really scary stuff.

is_that_so

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

Ingrid Miley

Some of them need a refresher course in news delivery!

road_high

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Does anyone know when DIY shops/Ikea will reopen?

Whenever smirky Holohan takes a it on a whim. Same as everything else really.

Birdie Num Num

growleaves wrote: »

Reported by who? I thought we were disregarding info from dictatorships with low Press Freedom, e.g. Belarus, Vietnam etc.

Disregarded by who? ...People with a certain narrative?

FishOnABike

seamus wrote: »

Agreed. If anything has been consistent with Fine Gael, is that they are as a matter of policy cautious and risk averse. They will almost certainly wait until 8th June before they make any more major changes. However, at that stage I do expect a few things to be brought forward based on the experience of other countries, such as reopening creches for limited numbers, allowing all sports without spectators and allowing cafés and restaurants to reopen under strict guidelines that will be slowly relaxed over time.

At that point, assuming the numbers are all solid, they will potentially make phase 2 & 3, two-week periods before moving to phase 4 in early July.

They've previously said reducing the stages to less than three weeks wasn't something they'd see happening.

Given the incubation period and time potentially needed for test and trace and the time needed to see the impact of lifting restrictions in each stage there isn't much scope to reduce the length of each stage.

They have indicated things could be moved from one stage to another. If all goes well it's more likely that some things will be moved to an earlier stage than any stage getting shorter.

is_that_so

Deleted User wrote: »

That is scary. Should give some people pause for thought...

We're not Iran and they seem to have been bouncing around a load of very changeable exit plans for quite a while. But why Iran anyway? Why not Denmark, NZ, Oz or Germany?

Conte..

Rodin wrote: »

Queuing outside HomeBase for an hour?

Could ya be bothered?

Idiots

Shops will be half empty and overpriced

bush

Rodin wrote: »

Queuing outside HomeBase for an hour?

Could ya be bothered?

Nothing better to do at this stage

MrDavid1976

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0517/1138961-100-days/

Meanwhile, the government that has been making decisions of enormous import is headed by a Taoiseach who, just weeks before the virus struck here, had tendered his resignation to the President. It includes three ministers who lost their seats.

Does this mean there are questions around the legitimacy or authority of the government?

"Constitutionally there is not, but politically there is," said Prof Murphy.

"We have a mandate for the 160 TDs in the Dáil and literally nobody else. Although, constitutionally, ministers who have lost their seats still hold their positions, I think it is not sustainable any longer."

The Constitution envisages that ministers and the Taoiseach stay in office until their replacements are appointed, Dr David Kenny of Trinity College, Dublin explained.

"But the problem seems to be that no one really envisaged it going on for this long or decisions of such magnitude being made by a government that has effectively lost its mandate and can't form a new mandate in the current Dáil," he said.

"The theory the Government has put out is that because they are an acting government, or acting minister, they don't and they don't have the same responsibility to account for themselves to the Dáil or to Dáil committees that they would usually have. They don't have any obligation necessarily to come in and answer questions.

"That means in some ways we have a government that is making some of the most significant decisions that have ever been made by a government in this State and they are doing it without a clear mandate and without Dáil oversight

growleaves

Birdie Num Num wrote: »

Disregarded by who? ...People with a certain narrative?

Posters objected to using Belarus as an an example of a country that did well without a lockdown because it is a dictatorship without press freedom. In that case, why take reports from Iran at face value?

LiquidZeb

is_that_so wrote: »

We're not Iran and they seem to have been bouncing around a load of very changeable exit plans for quite a while. But why Iran anyway? Why not Denmark, NZ, Oz or Germany?

Because we've nothing in common with Denmark Austria and Germany but we're practically identical to Iran and Brazil because it fits the narrative.

road_high

is_that_so wrote: »

We're not Iran and they seem to have been bouncing around a load of very changeable exit plans for quite a while. But why Iran anyway? Why not Denmark, NZ, Oz or Germany?

Because Iran fits the crazed lockdown mentality. The sucess of Denmark and every other European nation doesn't.

Beasty

Deleted User wrote: »

Another issue is that irregardless of age, if you are admitted to ICU, you still have a 50% chance of dying even though we have been living with the virus for a while.

The only commentary I've seen on this is those put on ventilators having a 50% chance. A lot of ICU admissions do not go onto ventilators (hence the almost obsession over whether Boris went on one)

Ginger n Lemon

Some random lad on newstalk

"Why have we been paying so much tax for so many years that we cant take a 6 month break and control this pandemic properly"

"Why cant we afford to take a break"

"20 bn borrowing is nothing in terms of world economy"

I've heard it all now. His response to 28% unemployment?

"high unemployment is because of a lockdown but when we ease restrictions we ll be back to normal. I am sorry for that but its time for government to show leadership and identify businesses that were affected and help them"

Damn I am so close to giving up.........

road_high

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

RTÉ just now:

“Individuals do not control this, it is the virus that will decide and there could be further closures”.

Seriously. What kind of planet are these people on? Individual (and corporate and State) behaviour will decide otherwise we may as well lock down for ever or try to adjust.

Who said this? Because for the 3 months this is exactly what they've been ramming down peoples throats every day. But now suddenly the virus has a mind of its own? Who knew!

road_high

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Some random lad on newstalk

"Why have we been paying so much tax for so many years that we cant take a 6 month break and control this pandemic properly"

"Why cant we afford to take a break"

"20 bn borrowing is nothing in terms of world economy"

I've heard it all now. His response to 28% unemployment?

"high unemployment is because of a lockdown but when we ease restrictions we ll be back to normal. I am sorry for that but its time for government to show leadership and identify businesses that were affected and help them"

Damn I am so close to giving up.........

You're looking for economic and fiscal intelligence in the wrong place- the Irish public!

MrDavid1976

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Some random lad on newstalk

"Why have we been paying so much tax for so many years that we cant take a 6 month break and control this pandemic properly"

"Why cant we afford to take a break"

"20 bn borrowing is nothing in terms of world economy"

I've heard it all now. His response to 28% unemployment?

"high unemployment is because of a lockdown but when we ease restrictions we ll be back to normal. I am sorry for that but its time for government to show leadership and identify businesses that were affected and help them"

Damn I am so close to giving up.........

From the IT based on a CSO report.

Almost a quarter of businesses have been forced to cease trading due to the Covid-19 pandemic, while many of those who kept some element of their business going cut staff and relied on Government support.

The Central Statistics Office published the second wave of its Business Impact of Covid-19 Survey on Monday.

The online survey was sent to a sample of 3,000 businesses and the information was collected between May 5th and May 12th. The response rate to the survey was 24.5 per cent.

Nearly one in four (23.9 per cent) enterprises had ceased trading either temporarily or permanently. Almost a quarter (23 per cent) closed temporarily while 0.9 per cent closed permanently.

More than three quarters (76 per cent) were continuing to trade in some capacity.

Amongst enterprises who responded to both waves of the survey, one in six of those who had ceased trading temporarily by April 1919 indicated they had recommenced trading by May 3rd.

Two of every three (66.7 per cent) businesses in the construction sector had ceased trading either temporarily or permanently.

Over one in five services enterprises had also ceased trading, either temporarily or permanently, over the same period.

There were large differences within the services sector where 69.1 per cent of enterprises in accommodation and food services ceased trading, either temporarily or permanently.