Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

growleaves

growleaves wrote: »

Posters objected to using Belarus as an an example of a country that did well without a lockdown because it is a dictatorship without press freedom. In that case, why take reports from Iran at face value?

Are Belarus doing well? Just under 1,000 cases a day and growing steadily

LiquidZeb

bush wrote: »

Ye exactly, its all great now bumming around in the sun with the covid payment. They will change their tune when its the winter and they are trying to live off 200 euro cos their job is gone.

I'm actually shocked and people's refusal to look at things in the long term. They seem to think despite all the facts looking them in the face everything is as simple as just turning the lights back on. There's plenty of people who'll find out that catching covid will quickly be the least of their problems.

KrustyUCC

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If admitted to ICU, there is roughly a 50% chance of dying from COVID-19 irregardless of sex, age etc. This is what is factoring into slow relaxing of restrictions. Do I think they are going through the process too slowly? Perhaps.

But their plan is more reasonable than any the "pro economic brigade" put forward....

It's easy to be a hurler on the ditch.

Wow 50% seems a very high number

I would have thought it would be far lower

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

If admitted to ICU, there is roughly a 50% chance of dying from COVID-19 irregardless of sex, age etc. This is what is factoring into slow relaxing of restrictions. Do I think they are going through the process too slowly? Perhaps.

But their plan is more reasonable than any the "pro economic brigade" put forward....

It's easy to be a hurler on the ditch.

Do you have a source for that? In Ireland.

KrustyUCC

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Wow 50% seems a very high number

I would have thought it would be far lower

I linked the audit paper released by ICNARC (critical care society in the UK) in a previous post.

growleaves

Are Belarus doing well? Just under 1,000 cases a day and growing steadily

Taking their figures at face value, yes. They've so far had 171 deaths out of a population of 9 million (if you believe them)

Another Communist dictatorship, Vietnam, reported 0 deaths. (They had a lockdown enforced by "loyal party cadres")

polesheep

polesheep wrote: »

Do you have a source for that? In Ireland.

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/cbcb6217-f698-ea11-9125-00505601089b

Audit data hasn't been released from irish ICU's but from seeing internal figures in my hospital, we have broadly similar mortality rates in ICU.

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

I linked the audit paper released by ICNARC (critical care society in the UK) in a previous post.

That's not what I asked.

bb1234567

If ICU survival is only 50% should we have reported at least 150 ICU deaths by now then? I believe there has only been around 60 ICU deaths but around 350 ICU admissions cumulatively. Only 63 currently still in ICU

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/cbcb6217-f698-ea11-9125-00505601089b

Audit data hasn't been released from irish ICU's but from seeing internal figures in my hospital, we have broadly similar mortality rates in ICU.

That's not my understanding. But as I cannot confirm it with figures I won't claim it to be the case. Can you confirm your understanding with figures?

bloodless_coup

What's the checkpoint situation these days? Planning on a long trip and would like to avoid being stopped at checkpoints having to tell fibs about my reasons for traveling.

Like being back in school coming up with excuses as to why my homework isn't done.

tobefrank321

What ongoing cases per day would be acceptable after restrictions are lifted?

I think if we are below 150 cases per day on average we will be doing well. Once it goes over 200 cases per day on a consistant basis, we could see restrictions re-imposed. I hope they are able to learn which sectors and industries are the major causes of new cases though, and they don't just impose blanket restrictions.

Mic 1972

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Loose restrictions can only lead to increasing numbers, Iran is an interesting example. Europe eventually will have a second wave too due to loose restrictions, hopefully immunity will play a hey role

Not really. If the number of infections are low, and the loosening can be done in a controlled manner, with good testing and contact tracing, R0 can be held close to or at 1. Sweden is good example of this in a way. They did introduce some level of control and stabilised the increase in cases and are now at about 6 weeks without any further increases - R0 about 1. The trouble with Sweden is that they have stabilised at about 500 deaths a week. Looks very good a few weeks ago when compared to similar countries, not so much going forward. But what other countries should aim for is to have the same level of control of increase that Sweden has demonstrated, but at a much lower level due to the impact of the tighter restrictions up to now

Goldengirl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

None!
I drove down using M1, M50 and N7 - no checkpoints at all.
Drove home via Kilcock, Trim, Navan and roads were clear.
The only Garda car was on the outskirts of Clane as I was getting near my sisters house, but not stopping cars, just driving.

My sister has just had to get a barring order against her husband so this was my genuine excuse if I needed one, she is vulnerable. Also I live alone and so does she. I didn't stop along the way either. People need to use common sense and get on with their lives. Fear is crippling people.

The worse thing that can happen is that you are stopped and told to go home. (and if that happened I would have just gone on to the back roads anyway and continued on my trip)

That was obviously an essential trip and nobody could say anything but that .
A lot of guards around Dublin even minor roads .

Ginger n Lemon

polesheep wrote: »

That's not what I asked.

I dont think he is serious poster btw, in case you had high hopes for getting meaningful data.

Unless, you are looking for covid impact on Brazil population, then he would be an expert.

polesheep

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I dont think he is serious poster btw, in case you had high hopes for getting meaningful data.

Unless, you are looking for covid impact on Brazil population, then he would be an expert.

Damn! And there was I using him as my go-to source.

Ginger n Lemon

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I dont think he is serious poster btw, in case you had high hopes for getting meaningful data.

Unless, you are looking for covid impact on Brazil population, then he would be an expert.

So you are suggesting that ICNARC audits aren't meaningful data?

What happened to attack the post, not the poster?

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

So you are suggesting that ICNARC audits aren't meaningful data?

What happened to attack the post, not the poster?

I asked you for a source for Irish ICU figures.

KrustyUCC

On Sat there had been 389 cases treated in ICU up to that point

https://www.gov.ie/en/press-release/dfc259-statement-from-the-national-public-health-emergency-team-saturday-16/

50% would be 194 deaths

I can't recall hearing things were that bad

polesheep

polesheep wrote: »

I asked you for a source for Irish ICU figures.

If that data hasn't been publicly released, how am I supposed to source it?

I don't understand why people think that I can pull nationwide audit data out of a magical hat.

I think it's reasonable to consider the UK data in lieu of that.

setanta1984

Deleted User wrote: »

But there plan is more reasonable than any the "pro economic brigade" put forward....

Huh? All most people want is a reasonable time frame for the current plan.

I have issues with the ordering of items in certain phases, but the real problem is we are taking 3 months to execute our plan, when the rest of Europe have already eased things we are waiting until July and August for.
I think most people who want easing agree that our plan should be shorter and with some phases rolled into another. In line with the rest of Europe.

I still haven't seen a reasonable explanation why we are the only ones who need to drag it out to August when the rest of Europe are already at that stage now or by early June. Why are we different?

And saying "they locked down before us" is all well and good, but at the most anywhere was ahead was 2 to 3 weeks, it does not explain why our reopening plan is 2-3 months longer.

This thread seems to have veered more into the realm of whether the restrictions should have been imposed in the first place (maybe that could be it's own thread), this is a pointless argument as what's done is done, and is irrelevant now - all that matters now is how we get back out of it.

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

If that data hasn't been publicly released, how am I supposed to source it?

I don't understand why people think that I can pull nationwide audit data out of a magical hat.

I think it's reasonable to consider the UK data in lieu of that.

You made a claim and I asked you to back that claim with a source. Without a source your claim has no validity.

polesheep

polesheep wrote: »

You made a claim and I asked you to back that claim with a source. Without a source your claim has no validity.

I attached the ICNARC audits. I've literally attached the audit data. How can you not grasp that?

Goldengirl

NegativeCreep wrote: »

Some autistic people can’t wear masks. Simon Harris brother owns a charity for autistic people. Someone told me that was part of the reason. Absolutely ridiculous

No , really?! Does sound ridiculous alright .🙄
They are sticking with social distancing and handwashing as the main pillars to keep it at bay and they really didn't want that particular message getting lost .
But if people have to get up close than you have to have a mask really.

HSE tried to stop nurses wearing them earlier in this except for Covid positive patients , and there was uproar. Nobody knew if there was either asymptomatic or pre symptomatic transmission and rightly, nurses did not want to take a chance.

Now that people are out and about and in closer proximity on buses etc they are recommended , but only reluctantly it seems.

polesheep

Deleted User wrote: »

I attached the ICNARC audits.

That is not a valid source. Do you have a source for Ireland? If not, then your claim has no validity.

KrustyUCC

According to another thread

ShineOn7 wrote: »

From Reddit/Gov.ie



Ignore the shouty capitals, it's a direct copy and paste




__________________________________


THE REPORTING OF A LARGE NUMBER OF CASES TODAY IS DUE TO ONE LARGE REPORTING OF CASES, OVER TIME, IN A HOSPITAL. THESE NUMBERS GO BACK TO THE MIDDLE OF MARCH. WHEN THESE CASES WERE BACKDATED TO WHEN THE RESULT CAME IN, THERE WERE NO MORE THAN 7 CASES REPORTED PER DAY

New Cases: 426
Total Cases: 23827
New Death: 10
Denotified: 1
Total Deaths: 1506

DEATHS

• Deaths: 1506
• Hospitalised + died in hospital: 615 41%
• Died in ICU: 75 5%
• Underlying conditions: 1305 87%
• Median age: 84
• Mean age: 82

As of Tuesday 12th May

• Cases: 23259
• Hospitalised: 3053 13.10%
• Total In ICU: 387 1.70%
• Median Age: 48
• Healthcare workers: 7123 > Increase of 126 30.60%

Of 388 in ICU

• Remain in ICU: 58

Residential Settings (Includes nursing homes)

• Clusters: 438 > Increase of 6
• Total Cases: 5983 > Increase of 26
• Total Deaths: 948 63.00%
• Hospitalised: 450 7.50%

Nursing Homes

• Clusters: 250 > Increase of 5
• Total Cases: 4655 > Increase of 14
• Total Deaths: 823 55.00%
• Hospitalised: 318 5.30%

Healthcare Workers - data from Saturday just gone

• Cases: 6890
• Deaths: 7 0.1%
• Hospitalised: 252 4%
• ICU: 41 1%
• Median age: 41
• Female: 73%
• Male: 27%

Modelling

• All population indicators of the virus in the country have been decreasing over a number of weeks
  
• This weeks estimate of the reproductive number tells us what we were like last week
• Reproductive number now in the range of 0.4-0.6
• How people behave will be very important to prevent a second wave
• Over past number of weeks, two things matter at the rate the disease spreads - the reproductive number, and the number of people with the infection in the population
• Important to look at the number of new infections per capita per day - this is the "forced" number
  
  
  
  

Date # New Cases per Day # of People in Hospital # Daily Hospital Admissions # of People in ICU # of ICU Admissions # of Daily Deaths
16th April ~ 600 865 50-60 140 8-10 33
6th May 300 680 22 100 3 21
13th May 172 526 17 69 1-2 13
Today N/a 459 N/A 58

So that was 75 died in ICU

Very far off 50%

Ginger n Lemon

Deleted User wrote: »

So you are suggesting that ICNARC audits aren't meaningful data?

What happened to attack the post, not the poster?

Your post is very misleading.

"If admitted to ICU, there is roughly a 50% chance of dying from COVID-19 irregardless of sex, age etc. This is what is factoring into slow relaxing of restrictions. Do I think they are going through the process too slowly? Perhaps.

But their plan is more reasonable than any the "pro economic brigade" put forward....

It's easy to be a hurler on the ditch."

You link UK ICU paper and in the same paragraph you clearly say you think perhaps "they" are lifting restrictions too slow, clearly referring to Irish government and our restrictions.

Given that the other poster requested Irish ICU, your response is clearly very misleading? Regardless if Irish ICU figures are published or not, its not common knowledge by any means for anyone to be aware or assume that they arent.

KrustyUCC

75 out of 387 is 19.38%

uli84

Harris '"We need people to stay within 5km to stop the spread of the virus.'' - where did he get that from or is it the case of he says that so it's right? Perhaps as right as previous 18 coronaviruses.

you do start to wonder how other countries are managing, thank God we have all those wise heads in Ireland

polesheep

polesheep wrote: »

That is not a valid source. Do you have a source for Ireland? If not, then your claim has no validity.

Love that you are suggesting an audit has no validity.