Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Goldengirl

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Not even remotely true. This is not the first poster that I see that informs us of cancer patient dying off cancer but being reported as covid death.

Why do you assume I base my judgement on the poster alone?

BTW from earlier poster it is quite obvious nearly everybody has had an underlying condition.

Deaths: 1506
Hospitalised + died in hospital: 615 41%
Died in ICU: 75 5%
Underlying conditions: 1305 87%
Median age: 84
Mean age: 82

Roughly 225 people so far without underlying conditions have died, according to those figures.
If you were to hear that number of people just falling ill and dying over a normal 10 week period , you would be shocked, or at least most people would be .

uli84

nickkinneg wrote: »

I think the government is right in being very cautious with relaxing the restrictions- it’s too high stakes - countries like Iran and parts of Africa are having to deal with two plagues - the other one being the millions of devouring locusts eating all in front of them - which means no food - this has not being obviously as widely reported

What it has to do with anything? Especially a country in a Western Europe like Ireland?

tobefrank321

Goldengirl wrote: »

Roughly 225 people so far without underlying conditions have died, according to those figures.
If you were to hear that number of people just falling ill and dying over a normal 10 week period , you would be shocked, or at least most people would be .

Honestly, unless a post mortem is done, its impossible to know if someone had underlying conditions. Some people can live with diabetes or prediabetes for years without knowing it, I'd imagine, although a post mortem mightn't reveal diabetes.

Also, many of those without underlying conditions were likely elderly with very weak immune systems.

So its possible they had no underlying conditions. Its also possible they had undiagnosed conditions. There should be a caveat to say if post mortems were carried out or not.

That said, there are a lot of people out there with undiagnosed underlying conditions.

Dayor Knight

polesheep wrote: »

You are an anonymous poster on the Internet. You could be Rin Tin Tin for all I know. Without a source to support your claim, it is mere opinion.

Well, if you come on here, that's what you have to expect - anonymous posters. Either accept what you read or don't.

Ginger n Lemon

Goldengirl wrote: »

Roughly 225 people so far without underlying conditions have died, according to those figures.
If you were to hear that number of people just falling ill and dying over a normal 10 week period , you would be shocked, or at least most people would be .

I would be, if 225 people were 30, 35, 40 years of age.

If 90% of 225 people are over 80, and life expectancy in Ireland is 82, am i really that heartless not to be TOO surprised?

Afterall, 85 people died in Ireland per day in 2019. per day. thats 255 in 3 days. thats 4,760 in an 8 week period.

This is just what happened. And it is sad. But this is what happens every day of the year, only thing we can do as a nation is to fund our healthcare and give people access to timely good healthcare when its needed. By putting ourselves in a recession, we will not be well placed to fund our healthcare and this will have a huge knock on effect.

btw I do work in finance and have extremely good grasp of figures and numbers but by no means it makes me some sort of a genocide monster you may wish to portray me as.

Ginger n Lemon

Figured I'd post below before it surfaces as some sort of death and destruction warning

"CZECH STATE OF EMERGENCY ENDS AS R VALUE RISES

The Czech Republic ended its state of emergency midnight Sunday after 66 days, one week before the country will lift most of the remaining coronavirus restrictions.

That plan is set to go ahead even as the country's reproduction number, or R value — the average number of people that an infected person will transmit the virus to — climbed from 0.66-0.8 on May 2 to 0.84-1.04 on May 17. Once it hits above 1, the number of cases begins to spread exponentially.

Prime Minister Andrej Babiš has said that, in case of a second wave, regional governors could declare local states of emergency."

Just like in Denmark and Germany, the R value has increased once restrictions have been lifted.

But thats not actually critically important, whats important is what countries do then. So far Denmark is powering through, Czech republic hasnt announced any lockdown being re introduced neither did Germany (apart from the 1 town with 22,000 population and meat plant)

We will see cases increase this week here, but remember theres a lot of ICU capacity and a lot of hospital beds capacity, dont panic too much at what is to be expected. Hopefully nursing homes are better protected now as well.

Goldengirl

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I would be, if 225 people were 30, 35, 40 years of age.

If 90% of 225 people are over 80, and life expectancy in Ireland is 82, am i really that heartless not to be TOO surprised?

Afterall, 85 people died in Ireland per day in 2019. per day. thats 255 in 3 days. thats 4,760 in an 8 week period.

This is just what happened. And it is sad. But this is what happens every day of the year, only thing we can do as a nation is to fund our healthcare and give people access to timely good healthcare when its needed. By putting ourselves in a recession, we will not be well placed to fund our healthcare and this will have a huge knock on effect.

btw I do work in finance and have extremely good grasp of figures and numbers but by no means it makes me some sort of a genocide monster you may wish to portray me as.

I don't think you are a monster, really
Just would be nice if you showed a little more of whatever is in the above post , not trying to be patronising but just straight up.
Very annoying when you go to the trouble of trying to explain one side of an argument trying not get heated, to have it thrown back at you with the main points chopped out and focus altered beyond recognition.


Your comments on VitD ( research done by Trinity ) was bang on. Only thing is you left out the important bit about Sweden, Norway, Denmark having reduced numbers it is thought because they routinely supplement these sunshine vitamins .
Now why did you not mention that?

I think you'll find that the majority of those without underlying conditions are in the younger age groups , from mid tolate 30s up unfortunately, which is tragic.
This is a very nasty disease and we need to tread carefully easing up.
It is affecting all of us one way or another , not just a select few , as seem to think here, and we will all pay the price unfortunately.
I am not FG , but think they are doing as good a job as anybody else in this scenario , and there are lot of people working away through this who don'tdeserve the sctick they're getting here

Goldengirl

tobefrank321 wrote: »

Honestly, unless a post mortem is done, its impossible to know if someone had underlying conditions. Some people can live with diabetes or prediabetes for years without knowing it, I'd imagine, although a post mortem mightn't reveal diabetes.

Also, many of those without underlying conditions were likely elderly with very weak immune systems.

So its possible they had no underlying conditions. Its also possible they had undiagnosed conditions. There should be a caveat to say if post mortems were carried out or not.

That said, there are a lot of people out there with undiagnosed underlying conditions.

If diabetes was the cause of death , and not Covid , you would know it on postmortem , and that is why they do postmortems.
Only ones not being pm' ed are elderly people who have died with as diagnosed by their treating doctor a Covid related pneumonia.
People die all the time with flu and are never positively swabbed or have a postmortem.
You really seem have trust issues with doctors and nurses don't you?
Most people are not out to lie to you .

The reality is that less than 100 of the deaths are under 65. Only around 200 had no underlying condition. And those may well be elderly people above the life expectancy age.

We've completely overreacted to Covid and the 3 month plan is 2 months too long. We should be reopening end of June.
We never even had a first wave in Ireland.

I don't consider myself to be a cold, heartless ba**ard but there is only so much you can do to prevent over 80's from dying. If its not covid, it will be flu/pneumonia or something else.

We cannot sustain remaining in lockdown and having so many extremely low risk people out of work and out of school.
We must find a way to live with the virus and do what we can reasonably can to shield the most at risk without tanking the economy for generations.

Breezin

Good roundup here of the gathering relaxation of restrictions across Europe.

Deeper Blue

is_that_so wrote: »

We're not Iran and they seem to have been bouncing around a load of very changeable exit plans for quite a while. But why Iran anyway? Why not Denmark, NZ, Oz or Germany?

Because they're doing well so the comparison wouldn't be scary enough

Ginger n Lemon

Breezin wrote: »

Good roundup here of the gathering relaxation of restrictions across Europe.

In theory yes, but below??? what pubs are those. serving food?

"Ireland
Some flights and ferry services continue to operate between Ireland and the UK – although all arrivals are subject to 14 days’ self-isolation and must provide details of accommodation while in Ireland. UK nationals will be exempt from self-isolation procedure on return home – a start and end date, and whether transit through Ireland is permitted, has not been confirmed. Public transport is limited; restaurants and some pubs will reopen on 29 June; hotels, museums and galleries to reopen 20 July."

Breezin

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

In theory yes, but below??? what pubs are those. serving food?

"Ireland
Some flights and ferry services continue to operate between Ireland and the UK – although all arrivals are subject to 14 days’ self-isolation and must provide details of accommodation while in Ireland. UK nationals will be exempt from self-isolation procedure on return home – a start and end date, and whether transit through Ireland is permitted, has not been confirmed. Public transport is limited; restaurants and some pubs will reopen on 29 June; hotels, museums and galleries to reopen 20 July."

Dunno. Probably the Charlie Chawke type?

Goldengirl

[Deleted User] wrote: »

The reality is that less than 100 of the deaths are under 65. Only around 200 had no underlying condition. And those may well be elderly people above the life expectancy age.

We've completely overreacted to Covid and the 3 month plan is 2 months too long. We should be reopening end of June.
We never even had a first wave in Ireland.

I don't consider myself to be a cold, heartless ba**ard but there is only so much you can do to prevent over 80's from dying. If its not covid, it will be flu/pneumonia or something else.

We cannot sustain remaining in lockdown and having so many extremely low risk people out of work and out of school.
We must find a way to live with the virus and do what we can reasonably can to shield the most at risk without tanking the economy for generations.

People do not get to be elderly with no underlying conditions !

polesheep

Dayor Knight wrote: »

Well, if you come on here, that's what you have to expect - anonymous posters. Either accept what you read or don't.

You can provide a source for a claim and still remain anonymous.

Ginger n Lemon

Newstalk now with Ivan Yates

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRTSl6vxlYA

Primary school teachers member also called in

talking with Danish school union representative, they opened their schools 14 April.

Makes for a great listen.

snowcat

What is the purpose of this staggered relaxation of restrictions? More progressive countries relaxed their measures much sooner than us and have had no spike in cases. We should be looking and learning from these countries and not experimenting ourselves. Switzerland for example had a similiar sized outbreak to us. They never had a full lockdown and started easing restrictions on the 27th April for the vast majority of workers. They have had no upsurge. They had 10 new cases today. Same can be said for Denmark Germany etc

growleaves

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

In theory yes, but below??? what pubs are those. serving food?

"Ireland
Some flights and ferry services continue to operate between Ireland and the UK – although all arrivals are subject to 14 days’ self-isolation and must provide details of accommodation while in Ireland. UK nationals will be exempt from self-isolation procedure on return home – a start and end date, and whether transit through Ireland is permitted, has not been confirmed. Public transport is limited; restaurants and some pubs will reopen on 29 June; hotels, museums and galleries to reopen 20 July."

Charlie Chawkes pubs already have restaurant licences and he's announced they're reopening in June.

Conte..

snowcat wrote: »

What is the purpose of this staggered relaxation of restrictions? More progressive countries relaxed their measures much sooner than us and have had no spike in cases. We should be looking and learning from these countries and not experimenting ourselves. Switzerland for example had a similiar sized outbreak to us. They never had a full lockdown and started easing restrictions on the 27th April for the vast majority of workers. They have had no upsurge. They had 10 new cases today. Same can be said for Denmark Germany etc

Fukk knows

Holohan and varadkar don't want to be seen to mess it up so being ultra cautious

Blaze420

snowcat wrote: »

What is the purpose of this staggered relaxation of restrictions? More progressive countries relaxed their measures much sooner than us and have had no spike in cases. We should be looking and learning from these countries and not experimenting ourselves. Switzerland for example had a similiar sized outbreak to us. They never had a full lockdown and started easing restrictions on the 27th April for the vast majority of workers. They have had no upsurge. They had 10 new cases today. Same can be said for Denmark Germany etc

Because in Ireland we are still acting like this is some sort of Ebola rather than a severe version of the flu.

lainey_d_123

Deleted User wrote: »

The reality is that less than 100 of the deaths are under 65. Only around 200 had no underlying condition. And those may well be elderly people above the life expectancy age.

We've completely overreacted to Covid and the 3 month plan is 2 months too long. We should be reopening end of June.
We never even had a first wave in Ireland.

I don't consider myself to be a cold, heartless ba**ard but there is only so much you can do to prevent over 80's from dying. If its not covid, it will be flu/pneumonia or something else.

We cannot sustain remaining in lockdown and having so many extremely low risk people out of work and out of school.
We must find a way to live with the virus and do what we can reasonably can to shield the most at risk without tanking the economy for generations.

Here's the thing.

I'd love to believe this. I really, really would. I want nothing more than to be sitting in a sunny beer garden having pints, or planning a little city break in Seville.

But I live in London, one of the worst hit cities in Europe. I personally know 7 different people who had very serious complications from Covid, and not one of them is elderly, or in particularly bad health. They're all under 40 (one if them is just 26), and three of them have been in hospital at least once with it, one of them in intensive care. They've been sick for over 6 weeks now. Every time they think they're getting better, it hits them again. All have reported very, very bad breathing difficulties and lung pains.

So I find it hard to believe that Covid is just like a bit of a cold for most people. I think even 'mild' cases can often include symptoms like these people have had, for weeks or even months on end. Who wants to risk getting that?!

Conte..

Conte.. wrote: »

Fukk knows

Holohan and varadkar don't want to be seen to mess it up so being ultra cautious

They are just looking to their own reputations, knowing that economic damage will not stick to them as much as a rise, however slight, in deaths. Maybe I am too cynical, but I think that this is pure and simple politics

Ginger n Lemon

growleaves wrote: »

Charlie Chawkes pubs already have restaurant licences and he's announced they're reopening in June.

I ll definitely be there 29th of June, getting a "sandwich"

"Charlie Chawke fears for pubs as people get used to drinking at home
Well-known publican says this year will be ‘a disaster’ for the trade"

We need to support the man and support local businesses (although its like 50 mins walk from where I live)

Blaze420

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I ll definitely be there 29th of June, getting a "sandwich"

"Charlie Chawke fears for pubs as people get used to drinking at home
Well-known publican says this year will be ‘a disaster’ for the trade"

We need to support the man and support local businesses (although its like 50 mins walk from where I live)

You know oddly enough I couldn’t care less if the pubs stay closed, I can replicate the same atmosphere at home with much cheaper booze and having friends around once the lockdown is over. The pubs are ****ed because most people will hopefully realise that a 4 pack of beer is the same price as a pint in most places, and there’s no risk of catching corona in your own house. They should adjust to the new reality because the world they operated in before is gone now and won’t be back for a very long time.

Goldengirl

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I ll definitely be there 29th of June, getting a "sandwich"

"Charlie Chawke fears for pubs as people get used to drinking at home
Well-known publican says this year will be ‘a disaster’ for the trade"

We need to support the man and support local businesses (although its like 50 mins walk from where I live)

Is the restriction up to 20 km by then ? Just asking as...
Think restaurant pubs will fare better

lainey_d_123

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Here's the thing.

I'd love to believe this. I really, really would. I want nothing more than to be sitting in a sunny beer garden having pints, or planning a little city break in Seville.

But I live in London, one of the worst hit cities in Europe. I personally know 7 different people who had very serious complications from Covid, and not one of them is elderly, or in particularly bad health. They're all under 40 (one if them is just 26), and three of them have been in hospital at least once with it, one of them in intensive care. They've been sick for over 6 weeks now. Every time they think they're getting better, it hits them again. All have reported very, very bad breathing difficulties and lung pains.

So I find it hard to believe that Covid is just like a bit of a cold for most people. I think even 'mild' cases can often include symptoms like these people have had, for weeks or even months on end. Who wants to risk getting that?!

I equally find it hard to believe anecdotal evidence like this. Your experience is so disproportionate to the empirical data as to be almost unbelievable. I know no-one who has been sick with anything more serious than fatigue or a slight cough that soon passed (and might have been nothing), and neither does anyone in my London based family. And I have not heard of any friends of friends being ill (BTW, I lived in London most of my life and know a lot of people there)

So our divergent experiences are influencing a completely different behaviour. Not only will I be getting back to work asap, I plan to travel in July and swallow whatever quarantine I have on the way back

Ginger n Lemon

Goldengirl wrote: »

Is the restriction up to 20 km by then ? Just asking as...

I am a slow walker :pac:

i think they go 20km on 29th of June co incidentally. Stars are aligning, Charlie Chawke watch out

Birdie Num Num

is_that_so wrote: »

We're not Iran and they seem to have been bouncing around a load of very changeable exit plans for quite a while. But why Iran anyway? Why not Denmark, NZ, Oz or Germany?

Why not any country? Every country is going to be different and adopt different strategies. Countries will differentiate greatly with resources, culturally, politically, seasonally and geographically. Best we can compare ourselves to on a like for like situation on some aspects is Britain. We just happened to act a bit more timely than they did and took it a bit more seriously to begin with.

A virus doesn't care about dictatorships or democracies. Brazil might be interesting to watch however as they are just coming into their winter season from the beginning of June or at least what could be called a winter for a mostly tropical country.

Late October could be telling when we start back into a cold and flu season particularly if we are back into full swing with pubs, educational institutions etc. back open.

Hurrache

Hurrache wrote: »

A perfect example of the sure why did we bother with all these restrictions when we're not that badly affected by it argument, an argument which always puts on display the person's making it abject failure of logic and cause and affect.

Followed a few hours later by another example, similar but slightly different.

Deleted User wrote: »

The reality is that less than 100 of the deaths are under 65. Only around 200 had no underlying condition. And those may well be elderly people above the life expectancy age.

We've completely overreacted to Covid and the 3 month plan is 2 months too long. We should be reopening end of June.
We never even had a first wave in Ireland.

I don't consider myself to be a cold, heartless ba**ard but there is only so much you can do to prevent over 80's from dying. If its not covid, it will be flu/pneumonia or something else.

We cannot sustain remaining in lockdown and having so many extremely low risk people out of work and out of school.
We must find a way to live with the virus and do what we can reasonably can to shield the most at risk without tanking the economy for generations.

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Newstalk now with Ivan Yates

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRTSl6vxlYA

Primary school teachers member also called in

talking with Danish school union representative, they opened their schools 14 April.

Makes for a great listen.

This was posted in another thread
https://www.thestar.com/news/world/europe/2020/05/18/70-cases-of-covid-19-at-french-schools-days-after-re-opening.html

PARIS - Just one week after a third of French schoolchildren went back to school in an easing ofthe coronavirus lockdown, there’s been a worrying flareup of about 70 COVID-19 cases linked to schools.

Some schools were opened last week and a further 150,000 junior high students went back to the classroom Monday as further restrictions were loosened by the government. The move initially spelled relief: the end of homeschooling for many hundreds of thousands of exhausted French parents, many whom were also working from home.

But French Education minister Jean-Michel Blanquer sounded the alarm Monday, telling French radio RTL that the return has put some children in new danger of contamination. He said the affected schools are being closed immediately. French media reported that seven schools in northern France were closed

growleaves

I tried to go to Argos today but the maitre'd said I needed a reservation.