Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Arghus

paw patrol wrote: »

must be some heart broken lockdown cheerleaders today.

Delighted to see a much lower death figure and case numbers in double figures for a few days now. I hope it will be plain sailing and we can get back to normal as soon as possible.

I hate the lockdown. Everyone hates the lockdown, there's no such thing as a pro-lockdown person really. Nobody prefers the lockdown to normal life. But it has a purpose: to prevent the spread of a contagious and dangerous virus. And it's been effective, but you don't just abandon your efforts when there's still a chance your good work can be undone.

Ginger n Lemon

This is pretty amazing, how come no1 else reported it?

"A prominent Israeli mathematician, analyst and former general claims simple statistical analysis demonstrates that the spread of COVID-19 peaks after about 40 days and declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it."


While he said he supports social distancing, the widespread shuttering of economies worldwide constitutes a demonstrable error in light of those statistics. In Israel’s case, he noted, about 140 people normally die every day. To have shuttered much of the economy because of a virus that is killing one or two a day is a radical error that is unnecessarily costing Israel 20% of its GDP, he charged.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/top-israeli-prof-claims-simple-stats-show-virus-plays-itself-out-after-70-days/

bad news are the bold parts. we just did economic damage and gained very little (if anything?). We gotta get that phase 5 and 4 to kick in 29th of June.

How can we justify even 1 further day of lockdown with peanut numbers coming out today?

Ginger n Lemon

Hurrache wrote: »

Quite a bit of naivety on this thread.

"We're doing great, now let's fire the people who implemented our successfull plans and policies".

WTF is wrong with you.

Was 15-20% long term unemployment the plan? Does that sound like a great policy?

Rodin

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If that data hasn't been publicly released, how am I supposed to source it?

I don't understand why people think that I can pull nationwide audit data out of a magical hat.

I think it's reasonable to consider the UK data in lieu of that.

Considering the UK has a much higher proportion of black and ethnic minorities who are more likely to die I think it's totally UNREASONSBLE to consider their data in lieu

_Kaiser_

_Kaiser_ wrote: »

Run into any checkpoints on the motorway?

I'll be making a 150km trip later on myself as after 8 weeks away to support family, I'm going home this afternoon.

Have a letter from work to cover me anyway if needed (my place is on the way) but just wondering if AGS are out much at this point. I haven't seen anything where I am now, but I haven't been out very far either

So did the trip around lunchtime and no issues at all. No checkpoints or gardai around at all for that matter.

It's good to be home

Ardent

KrustyUCC wrote: »

Wow 50% seems a very high number

I would have thought it would be far lower

In NYC, 80% of ventilator patients didn't/don't make it.

Quantum Erasure

retro:electro wrote: »

Actually two of the deaths reported are from April, so only two deaths from over the weekend!

and probably more from the weekend will be reported tomorrow...

Arghus

I see more and more people on the thread saying they don't follow the news anymore. Really? Would you not like to be a bit aware of the things that you are railing against? There might be a bit less blind rage on the thread. Though, I suspect that's unlikely.

The briefing today wasn't miserable viewing at all. Optimism over figures and future plans etc.

The change in tone in the briefings over the last two to three weeks is very clear, but, some people in here - who admit in some cases to not even watching them - insist that they consist of Tony Holohan scaring us all needlessly.

This thread is so far removed from reality; it's comical.

growleaves

This is pretty amazing, how come no1 else reported it?

They did but most people just ignore it.

larchielads

Am i allowed go for a spin on my motorbike ony own within the the 5k even though its not essential? The reason i ask is because golf courses are open and is that seen as exercise ?

KrustyUCC

Ardent wrote: »

In NYC, 80% of ventilator patients didn't/don't make it.

I wonder why that was?

It was 19.38% not 50% in Ireland when you look at the figures

Ginger n Lemon

growleaves wrote: »

They did but most people just ignore it.

Shame.

People will be experiencing USC2, more pension levies, nurses being reduced to part time work come Oct budget. And they ll still praise the lockdown. Lockdown saved lives. Its just unclear why we have nearly identical deaths per million as countries who havent implemented any lockdown at all.

KrustyUCC

larchielads wrote: »

Am i allowed go for a spin on my motorbike ony own within the the 5k even though its not essential?

Technically no but go for it

Arghus

growleaves wrote: »

They did but most people just ignore it.

It was all over the place last week. I must have seen twenty plus posters link to it in this forum.

I read it. It's interesting, but it's one guy's work. It doesn't prove anything. You can't base public health decisions on the word of one obscure Israeli mathematican.

CruelSummer

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

Great news. Only two deaths over the weekend. RIP and sympathies with their families.

Again, the CMO is focusing on the behavioural survey:

He is concerned that there was an increase in the percentage of people surveyed (from 43% to 46%) who felt that the worst of the virus was behind us and he said it was important to continue the good work and keep up the high standards of behaviours such as handwashing and social distancing that will keep the virus suppressed. He said that increased percentage gave him "some cause for concern and we need to keep an eye on this".

In my opinion he is reading this wrong - from a medical point of view rather than behavioural - and it is worrying they are focusing on this. The answer to the question is positive (I would be more concerned that 52% of people are so frightened they think it is ahead of us), but rather they need to be asking other questions:

Do you agree with the necessity for hand washing, personal etiquette etc. as a means to control the virus?

Do you agree with the need for social distancing bla bla bla?

Serious questions need to be asked of Tony Holohan’s recent behaviour...I see zero effort by our media so we should start making as much noise as possible here.
1. Why is he trying to scare children & parents over the weekend, just as evidence emerges that children aren’t the super spreaders they were thought to be.
2. He doesn’t even seem positive about the lifting of the current restrictions - why? Why does Mr Holohan keep us under 5km for exercise when our nearest neighbours can travel as far as they like. It’s is particularly hard outside of Dublin and should be lifted in full ASAP.
3. Why is he clutching at straws today becoming ‘concerned’ about people thinking the worst is over, when the figures clearly show the worst is most definitely over, despite them trying to best to make it look otherwise.
4. Why can’t other shops open under these new guidelines and give people a chance to get back to work? Who decides this exactly?

People need to stop being fed fear and hysteria by our media and Dr Holohan & co.

Quantum Erasure

snowcat wrote: »

70 out of 150000 sounds like a great result.

its not 70 out of 150000, there's 150,000 students total, i think a third of that were meant to be back last week, but a lot of schools that were meant to re-open didn't...

https://socialistworker.co.uk/art/50039/A+dangerous+plan+to+reopen+schools+in+France+fails+as+many+stay+shut

Arghus

CruelSummer wrote: »

Serious questions need to be asked of Tony Holohan’s recent behaviour...I see zero effort by our media so we should start making as much noise as possible here.
1. Why is he trying to scare children & parents over the weekend, just as evidence emerges that children aren’t the super spreaders they were thought to be.
2. He doesn’t even seem positive about the lifting of the current restrictions - why? Why does Mr Holohan keep us under 5km for exercise when our nearest neighbours can travel as far as they like. It’s is particularly hard outside of Dublin and should be lifted in full ASAP.
3. Why is he clutching at straws today becoming ‘concerned’ about people thinking the worst is over, when the figures clearly show the worst is most definitely over, despite them trying to best to make it look otherwise.
4. Why can’t other shops open under these new guidelines and give people a chance to get back to work? Who decides this exactly?

People need to stop being fed fear and hysteria by our media and Dr Holohan & co.

Did you watch the briefing today?

Speakerboxx

CruelSummer wrote: »

Serious questions need to be asked of Tony Holohan’s recent behaviour...I see zero effort by our media so we should start making as much noise as possible here.
1. Why is he trying to scare children & parents over the weekend, just as evidence emerges that children aren’t the super spreaders they were thought to be.
2. He doesn’t even seem positive about the lifting of the current restrictions - why? Why does Mr Holohan keep us under 5km for exercise when our nearest neighbours can travel as far as they like. It’s is particularly hard outside of Dublin and should be lifted in full ASAP.
3. Why is he clutching at straws today becoming ‘concerned’ about people thinking the worst is over, when the figures clearly show the worst is most definitely over, despite them trying to best to make it look otherwise.
4. Why can’t other shops open under these new guidelines and give people a chance to get back to work? Who decides this exactly?

People need to stop being fed fear and hysteria by our media and Dr Holohan & co.

We are all motoring on from today on. I wont be following any stupid restrictions like 5km rule. I will do my own thing and do it in a safe manner.

lainey_d_123

Deleted User wrote: »

My sister is a frontline NHS nurse in London and my daughter who is 27 lives in London too. Neither of them have had Covid or personally know anyone else who has. My daughter works in Microsoft and previously worked in British Airways yet not one of her past or present colleagues or friends has Covid. Likewise with my sister who has lived in UK for 25 years.

I'm not disputing how rampant Covid was in the UK and how much bigger the spread was due to the denser population but there is going to be a "risk" with everything in life. Now is the time to get over our fears and start being productive and living again. We have learnt in the last 9 weeks how to behave around this virus. It wont be what it was like before but it will be a step in the right direction. Having said that I'm glad I'm in Ireland and not the UK.

(I'm amazed no matter what topic is being discussed Lainey that you always seem to have numerous friends and acquaintances you can quote who have been through the exact same experience , maybe its just a coincidence.....)

Yeah, I know a lot of people. I have very wide social circles....often find it weird how few people most people seem to know and how few experiences most people seem to have had. The other day someone made a snarky comment about how I've apparently lived 'everywhere', because I referenced having lived in Spain, Korea and the US, implying I was lying. Well, yes, I have lived and worked all over the world doing all sorts of jobs and the large number of people I know reflects that. Some people can't see beyond their own tiny little bubble.

Funny how you don't mind using anecdotal evidence when it supports your own point, isn't it? BTW, I don't believe for a single second that a frontline NHS worker in London doesn't know anyone with covid. That's actually bordering on ludicrous. The conservative estimate is that there have been hundreds of thousands of cases here, with about 1 in 7 being infected. That means that any one person has a pretty good chance of knowing at least one person who has had it.

Over half of those I know with Covid are colleagues from my own workplace, where it seems there might well have been some infections spreading (I insisted on working from home from late February onwards because I felt so unsafe), the others are NHS staff. My experience is far more reflective of the estimated prevalence of coronavirus in London than yours.

Ginger n Lemon

Arghus wrote: »

It was all over the place last week. I must have seen twenty plus posters link to it in this forum.

I read it. It's interesting, but it's one guy's work. It doesn't prove anything. You can't base public health decisions on the word of one obscure Israeli mathematican.

Doesnt prove anything? it must be a co incidence then that covid peaks after 70 days. ohhh it peaked in China. It has clearly peaked here.

And by the looks of it it is peaking in Sweden

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102203/cumulative-coronavirus-cases-in-sweden/

Must be a co incidence. Also, below must be a co incidence

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/nobel-scientist-predicts-virus-will-burn-out-in-next-two-weeks-39194015.html

Wow thats 2 scientists. I am fearful to keep going... it seems unravelling

Hurrache

CruelSummer wrote: »

Serious questions need to be asked of Tony Holohan’s recent behaviour...I see zero effort by our media so we should start making as much noise as possible here.
1. Why is he trying to scare children & parents over the weekend, just as evidence emerges that children aren’t the super spreaders they were thought to be.
2. He doesn’t even seem positive about the lifting of the current restrictions - why? Why does Mr Holohan keep us under 5km for exercise when our nearest neighbours can travel as far as they like. It’s is particularly hard outside of Dublin and should be lifted in full ASAP.
3. Why is he clutching at straws today becoming ‘concerned’ about people thinking the worst is over, when the figures clearly show the worst is most definitely over, despite them trying to best to make it look otherwise.
4. Why can’t other shops open under these new guidelines and give people a chance to get back to work? Who decides this exactly?

People need to stop being fed fear and hysteria by our media and Dr Holohan & co.

Maybe it's yourself that need to be questioned if you felt frightened, understandably, but not due to anything Holohan done.

CruelSummer

Arghus wrote: »

I see more and more people on the thread saying they don't follow the news anymore. Really? Would you not like to be a bit aware of the things that you are railing against? There might be a bit less blind rage on the thread.Though, I suspect that's unlikely.

The briefing today wasn't miserable viewing at all. Optimism over figures and future plans etc.

The change in tone in the briefings over the last two to three weeks is very clear, but, some people in here - who admit in some cases to not even watching them - insist that they consist of Tony Holohan scaring us all needlessly.

This thread is so far removed from reality; it's comical.

I watch the news. RTE and their reporters & the politicians + officials they are interviewing are the ones that are far removed from reality.
Mr George Lee on Friday as I quoted here seeing ‘no good reason’ to bring forward the reopening timetable? Really! Employment, bankruptcy, mental health, children locked away from months, etc aren’t ‘good reasons’?!
Why are we last in the EU to reopen? Do you realise how terrible this looks to the international markets, employers, etc. Especially when the figures show we should be open two weeks ago.

lainey_d_123

Arghus wrote: »

I see more and more people on the thread saying they don't follow the news anymore. Really? Would you not like to be a bit aware of the things that you are railing against? There might be a bit less blind rage on the thread.Though, I suspect that's unlikely.

The briefing today wasn't miserable viewing at all. Optimism over figures and future plans etc.

The change in tone in the briefings over the last two to three weeks is very clear, but, some people in here - who admit in some cases to not even watching them - insist that they consist of Tony Holohan scaring us all needlessly.

This thread is so far removed from reality; it's comical.

Same people will be lying in an ICU bed gasping for breath and whining about why did the gubberment not do more?

You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.

Arghus

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Doesnt prove anything? it must be a co incidence then that covid peaks after 70 days. ohhh it peaked in China. It has clearly peaked here.

And by the looks of it it is peaking in Sweden

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102203/cumulative-coronavirus-cases-in-sweden/

Must be a co incidence. Also, below must be a co incidence

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/nobel-scientist-predicts-virus-will-burn-out-in-next-two-weeks-39194015.html

Wow thats 2 scientists. I am fearful to keep going... it seems unravelling

All I can see is lockdown measures having the desired effect.

Arghus

Arghus wrote: »

Delighted to see a much lower death figure and case numbers in double figures for a few days now. I hope it will be plain sailing and we can get back to normal as soon as possible.

I hate the lockdown. Everyone hates the lockdown, there's no such thing as a pro-lockdown person really. Nobody prefers the lockdown to normal life. But it has a purpose: to prevent the spread of a contagious and dangerous virus. And it's been effective, but you don't just abandon your efforts when there's still a chance your good work can be undone.

Yes I agree with you. Hate everything about the lockdown and we cant just throw caution to the wind. However I really don't think we will. People have learnt an awful lot from the last 9/10 weeks. Its been a very steep and unprecedented learning curve.
I know when I'm out walking that I keep my distance and the same shopping. I wash my hands and sanitize before and after shopping and keep sanitizer in the car. I don't see these things changing for most of us.

However today I just felt so much happier and lighter. I never thought I'd say I was happy to see white vans on the roads but I was! There was a clear and palpable air of relief and things getting back to some kind of normality.
I went walking through a park which has been closed up to now and it was beautiful, I was delighted to see lots of kids out with their parents, running around and rolling down hills. Delighted to see more runners, cyclists and walkers along with the extra traffic. Delighted to see people happy to go back to work

I really don't see how they can justify keeping the country this shut down if our numbers stay this low. What happens if we hit zero deaths soon?
How can they keep saying "we need to get our numbers down" if we only have 4 ...... or zero?

So what happens between now and 20th July ,more than 2 months away, if our numbers of deaths are at zero? How can they keep this "no travel beyond 20km" restriction going?

CruelSummer

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Same people will be lying in an ICU bed gasping for breath and whining about why did the gubberment not do more?

You can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink.

Scaremongering of the highest order. But you keep thinking that and stay inside if you want.

Hurrache

Arghus wrote: »

All I can see is lockdown measures having the desired effect.

But the numbers are so low the lockdown was an over reaction and everything should just restart immediately, it was all fear and scaremongering and they should all be fired.

That's the reasoning some people actually use.

Blaze420

Hurrache wrote: »

But the numbers are so low the lockdown was an over reaction and everything should just restart immediately, it was all fear and scaremongering and they should all be fired.

That's the reasoning some people actually use.

Let’s see how we go before we start throwing stones eh?

lainey_d_123

CruelSummer wrote: »

Scaremongering of the highest order. But you keep thinking that and stay inside if you want.

No, no scare mongering. Just someone unfortunate enough to live in London and experience the utter sh1t show that it is here because nobody would take it seriously.

Honestly, we all want the lockdown to end, we're all sick of it, but be grateful you have a government erring on the side of caution, with the priority to protect people. The other way around is not at all nice. Ireland did an excellent job at locking down early, before things got really bad. I would trust them to know what they're doing, and reopen when the time is right.

Arghus

The measures introduced were so effective that those who introduced them are a disgrace.

The measures introduced did their job so well that we didn't need them anyway.

The logic makes my brain hurt.