Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

CruelSummer

Hurrache wrote: »

But the numbers are so low the lockdown was an over reaction and everything should just restart immediately, it was all fear and scaremongering and they should all be fired.

That's the reasoning some people actually use.

Or maybe people are looking at the figures and realising the risk to those under 70 is very small. 50% of many populations tested were asymptomatic and mass testing of areas in Germany, Iceland and New York has the death rate at under 1%, with New York being the highest at 0.8%.
Did it ever occur to you we locked up the wrong people? Multiple doctors have come out saying it was ridiculous to lock up fit and healthy people. The fit and healthy should be out working, keeping the economy going and society intact. Those with underlying conditions, over 70 should be shielded until there is a vaccine.

Ginger n Lemon

Arghus wrote: »

All I can see is lockdown measures having the desired effect.

Is that really all you can see?

Record unemployment.

ICU, hospitals at less than 50% capacity for over 2 weeks.

Plenty of businesses liquidated (they had high rents dont worry nothing to do with covid)

And multiple scientists telling you covid dies out. it dies out regardless if you go outside or not...... But who listens to scientists? oh we did, before we decided to go into lockdown.

But we dont listen to them to come out of lockdown, they are mad. Right? They put a lot of solid evidence showing our incredible overreaction, but we dont want to believe them, we want to be fooled into thinking "we won".

is_that_so

CruelSummer wrote: »

Serious questions need to be asked of Tony Holohan’s recent behaviour...I see zero effort by our media so we should start making as much noise as possible here.
1. Why is he trying to scare children & parents over the weekend, just as evidence emerges that children aren’t the super spreaders they were thought to be.
2. He doesn’t even seem positive about the lifting of the current restrictions - why? Why does Mr Holohan keep us under 5km for exercise when our nearest neighbours can travel as far as they like. It’s is particularly hard outside of Dublin and should be lifted in full ASAP.
3. Why is he clutching at straws today becoming ‘concerned’ about people thinking the worst is over, when the figures clearly show the worst is most definitely over, despite them trying to best to make it look otherwise.
4. Why can’t other shops open under these new guidelines and give people a chance to get back to work? Who decides this exactly?

People need to stop being fed fear and hysteria by our media and Dr Holohan & co.

It sounds like you've just discovered the CMO! After months and months and months you get used to his shorthand. Hopeful and encouraged are good things. Concerned just means hold your horses. It's when he signals they would not be in a position to recommend something you pay heed. He's positive at present but wants to make sure people do not let up on the measures.

CruelSummer

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

No, no scare mongering. Just someone unfortunate enough to live in London and experience the utter sh1t show that it is here because nobody would take it seriously.

Honestly, we all want the lockdown to end, we're all sick of it, but be grateful you have a government erring on the side of caution, with the priority to protect people. The other way around is not at all nice. Ireland did an excellent job at locking down early, before things got really bad. I would trust them to know what they're doing, and reopen when the time is right.

I’ve a brother living in London and he’s delighted that he can travel again, go out and about. The R0 in London is as low as 0.4 now. It’s time it reopened and people got on with their lives.

Micky 32

larchielads wrote: »

Am i allowed go for a spin on my motorbike ony own within the the 5k even though its not essential? The reason i ask is because golf courses are open and is that seen as exercise ?

Simon Harris said earlier you can “drive” 5km to the beach for exercise, make of that what you will.

niallo27

Arghus wrote: »

I see more and more people on the thread saying they don't follow the news anymore. Really? Would you not like to be a bit aware of the things that you are railing against? There might be a bit less blind rage on the thread.Though, I suspect that's unlikely.

The briefing today wasn't miserable viewing at all. Optimism over figures and future plans etc.

The change in tone in the briefings over the last two to three weeks is very clear, but, some people in here - who admit in some cases to not even watching them - insist that they consist of Tony Holohan scaring us all needlessly.

This thread is so far removed from reality; it's comical.

The thoughts of waiting until August for anything to open is miserable, watching them all laugh about homeware shops opening while ignoring its costing thousands of jobs was miserable, being treated like children is miserable. The reality is we will be one of the counties to open and you find this uplifting.

sheepysheep

Arghus wrote: »

It was all over the place last week. I must have seen twenty plus posters link to it in this forum.

I read it. It's interesting, but it's one guy's work. It doesn't prove anything. You can't base public health decisions on the word of one obscure Israeli mathematican.

Britain unfortunately based it's public health decision on the word of one obscure theoretical physicist (Ferguson)and concluded that 500k deaths was a possibility.

lainey_d_123

lainey_d_123 wrote: »

Funny how you don't mind using anecdotal evidence when it supports your own point, isn't it? BTW, I don't believe for a single second that a frontline NHS worker in London doesn't know anyone with covid. That's actually bordering on ludicrous. The conservative estimate is that there have been hundreds of thousands of cases here, with about 1 in 7 being infected. That means that any one person has a pretty good chance of knowing at least one person who has had it.

Over half of those I know with Covid are colleagues from my own workplace, where it seems there might well have been some infections spreading (I insisted on working from home from late February onwards because I felt so unsafe), the others are NHS staff. My experience is far more reflective of the estimated prevalence of coronavirus in London than yours.

Nope my sister and my daughter both know nobody (yet) who has Covid. You will notice I did say "personally". Obviously my sister has worked with Covid patients. But the hospital she works in is a major transplant hospital not a huge general hospital. They had a Covid ward but none of her colleagues or friends contracted the virus - ludicrous or not! I have no reason to lie.


Obviously you think your experience if more reflective than mine - thats ok. But with a young daughter living in Clapham who I speak to daily and a sister who is a NHS nurse I guess I have some idea of the prevalence in London too, maybe not as good as yours but this isn't a competition.

Arghus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yes I agree with you. Hate everything about the lockdown and we cant just throw caution to the wind. However I really don't think we will. People have learnt an awful lot from the last 9/10 weeks. Its been a very steep and unprecedented learning curve.
I know when I'm out walking that I keep my distance and the same shopping. I wash my hands and sanitize before and after shopping and keep sanitizer in the car. I don't see these things changing for most of us.

However today I just felt so much happier and lighter. I never thought I'd say I was happy to see white vans on the roads but I was! There was a clear and palpable air of relief and things getting back to some kind of normality.
I went walking through a park which has been closed up to now and it was beautiful, I was delighted to see lots of kids out with their parents, running around and rolling down hills. Delighted to see more runners, cyclists and walkers along with the extra traffic. Delighted to see people happy to go back to work

I really don't see how they can justify keeping the country this shut down if our numbers stay this low. What happens if we hit zero deaths soon?
How can they keep saying "we need to get our numbers down" if we only have 4 ...... or zero?

So what happens between now and 20th July ,more than 2 months away, if our numbers of deaths are at zero? How can they keep this "no travel beyond 20km" restriction going?

They'll speed up the process is the numbers stay low. 100% guaranteed. People are getting way, way, too hung about the length of the plans. If the transmission rate dwindles they'll accelerate the phases. They have literally said this. Equally, if things don't improve they could reimpose restrictions. It's all dependant on future events. It's a plan subject to change.

helimachoptor

Drove from south Dublin to mayo today. Not one garda or checkpoint.

Have to help my father in law on the bog for a few days. Wish I'd been stopped and sent home.. Backbreaking work :-(

niallo27

Arghus wrote: »

The measures introduced were so effective that those who introduced them are a disgrace.

The measures introduced did their job so well that we didn't need them anyway.

The logic makes my brain hurt.

Its the length of the restrictions that are the issue and that idiotic 5km rule.

el Fenomeno

retro:electro wrote: »

We have the lowest number of reported deaths today since the end of March, and Tony is still whinging and finger wagging about that survey which shows 46% of Irish people feel the worst is over. He finds this “concerning”. Are we not even allowed a bit of optimism now? Jaysus is there anything we’re allowed at all? He’s never happy unless he’s miserable as my mother used to say

I think you need to understand this from Tony's perspective.

The history books will only remember him based on how he contributed to flattening the curve, and how low our numbers ended (or will end) up being.

When it comes to how much our economy is being crippled, how much additional taxes we are all going to be crucified with, and how long our quality of life takes to recover, this will never be put on Tony's door.

He's been asked for advice re: flattening the curve (a phrase I hate), not how to save the economy.

This isn't me praising Tony - I disagree with a lot of the heavy handed measures. But our government aren't going to him and asking "what do we need to do to fight this pandemic while finely balancing the survival of our economy?" - they're asking him how do we most effectively fight the pandemic and that's all.

There are others in charge who need to take on board his advice, and take on board economical advice from those with experience and expertise in that field, and come to the best outcome with all criteria considered. That's a very difficult job, but it's one our Government needs to be doing.

And from my (admittedly horrendously unqualified) point of view, they are listening to Tony and going gung-ho with his advice with little concern for the economic fall out.

Perhaps that's because our Governments are short-term goal driven - they'll take in the international praise and adulation when the headlines read "brave little Ireland blasted the coronavirus into oblivion and took courageous decisions that no other country would take". That headline will do the rounds, it'll get a few thousand upvotes on Reddit, you'll get people from other countries commenting "I wish our Government was this decisive and took action". But that's all they'll hear about it.

Then it'll be left to us, reading our payslips every month seeing increased USC and other new-born taxes introduced. Oh they'll only be temporary to dig us out of this whole, until they're permanent that is.

MrDavid1976

Arghus wrote: »

The measures introduced were so effective that those who introduced them are a disgrace.

The measures introduced did their job so well that we didn't need them anyway.

The logic makes my brain hurt.

I am of the view that the lockdown was the right thing to do. They based it on the evidence at the time. It succeeded in flattening the curve, providing ICU capacity and reducing the R below 0.

But the damage of not moving to ease this lockdown sooner will be economic disaster. The scaremongering and sniggering is disgraceful. They need to move us out of this quickly and stop treating people like idiots.

Arghus

sheepysheep wrote: »

Britain unfortunately based it's public health decision on the word of one obscure theoretical physicist (Ferguson)and concluded that 500k deaths was a possibility.

So who was responsible for the public health decisions for the entire Western world - aside from Sweden, of course - who all opted for broadly similar polices re restrictions? And all moved quicker and mostly with even more strict measures than the UK.

niallo27

Arghus wrote: »

They'll speed up the process is the numbers stay low. 100% guaranteed. People are getting way, way, too hung about the length of the plans. If the transmission rate dwindles they'll accelerate the phases. They have literally said this. Equally, if things don't improve they could reimpose restrictions. It's all dependant on future events. It's a plan subject to change.

I hope you are right but I very much doubt it, I have never then talk about accelerating phases only the constant threat of reimposing restrictions.

niallo27

niallo27 wrote: »

Its the length of the restrictions that are the issue and that idiotic 5km rule.

+100 - more than anything else these are the worst.

Not all of us have friends and family within 5km.

Colibri

Ardent wrote: »

Wrong. A recent Chinese study showed that 20% of folks were infected from just having an outdoor conversation with their neighbour.

Can I have the source?

retro:electro

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

I am of the view that the lockdown was the right thing to do. They based it on the evidence at the time. It succeeded in flattening the curve, providing ICU capacity and reducing the R below 0.

But the damage of not moving to ease this lockdown sooner will be economic disaster. The scaremongering and sniggering is disgraceful. They need to move us out of this quickly and stop treating people like idiots.

Exactly. The measures introduced were needed at the time. They have worked well and we have all played a part in that, and will continue to do so with modified behaviour. But we should be looking to bringing things forward now, or at least having a conversation about the possibility of it, that at least would give some people a bit of hope.

But instead all we get is a telling off because 46% of optimism is “concerning” and Simon telling people to have a bit of cop on like we are school children who aren’t toilet trained and need to be reminded not to piss our pants. People are sick of being spoken down to by doom merchants and finger wagged at. The measures worked, brilliant. Now let’s have a conversation about opening up earlier than planned instead of scolding people for rightly feeling that the worst is over.

SusieBlue

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

I am of the view that the lockdown was the right thing to do. They based it on the evidence at the time. It succeeded in flattening the curve, providing ICU capacity and reducing the R below 0.

But the damage of not moving to ease this lockdown sooner will be economic disaster. The scaremongering and sniggering is disgraceful. They need to move us out of this quickly and stop treating people like idiots.

I completely agree. We are now effectively sacrificing the majority of citizens for the very few. The country is paralysed in every sense of the word, physically, mentally and financially.
Current numbers (well actually the numbers for the last 4/5 weeks) do not justify current conditions and they certainly don’t justify continuing this madness for another 12 weeks till the 10th of August.

Over a million people are now out of work. The country is on its knees, and the goodwill of the people is starting to run out.

Arghus

niallo27 wrote: »

I hope you are right but I very much doubt it, I have never then talk about accelerating phases only the constant threat of reimposing restrictions.

Well, it is all dependant on the future growth rate of the disease.

They still can't predict the future, telling people that restrictions might have to be reimposed if the growth rate grows exponentially again at some point in the future is just telling people the truth. People don't like to hear it, but it is true.

Arghus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

+100 - more than anything else these are the worst.

Not all of us have friends and family within 5km.

I haven't been able to see my family for two months. And it'll probably be a while longer.

But I'll put up with it. I know why I'm doing it.

lainey_d_123

CruelSummer wrote: »

I’ve a brother living in London and he’s delighted that he can travel again, go out and about. The R0 in London is as low as 0.4 now. It’s time it reopened and people got on with their lives.

The problem is that if everyone just goes right back to normal, there's going to be another huge spike. A lot of people travelling into work are from outside London - it's not a bubble. I've seen so much carelessness in the last week or two - people just acting as if it's all over.

Deleted User wrote: »

Nope my sister and my daughter both know nobody (yet) who has Covid. You will notice I did say "personally". Obviously my sister has worked with Covid patients. But the hospital she works in is a major transplant hospital not a huge general hospital. They had a Covid ward but none of her colleagues or friends contracted the virus - ludicrous or not! I have no reason to lie.


Obviously you think your experience if more reflective than mine - thats ok. But with a young daughter living in Clapham who I speak to daily and a sister who is a NHS nurse I guess I have some idea of the prevalence in London too, maybe not as good as yours but this isn't a competition.

OK, so the 'not a general hospital' is the first clue she might not have had a typical NHS frontline worker experience. The two doctors I know personally who have had it work at a major central London hospital, and they know many other colleagues who have been infected at one stage or another.

As I said, the conservative estimate for people infected in London is 1 in 7. Which means that statistically speaking, the people I know are far more representative of reality than the people you know. Your contacts are the anomaly here.

lainey_d_123

SusieBlue wrote: »

I completely agree. We are now effectively sacrificing the majority of citizens for the very few. The country is paralysed in every sense of the word, physically, mentally and financially.
Current numbers (well actually the numbers for the last 4/5 weeks) do not justify current conditions and they certainly don’t justify continuing this madness for another 12 weeks till the 10th of August.

Over a million people are now out of work. The country is on its knees, and the goodwill of the people is starting to run out.

I'd say they'll definitely lift them earlier than then. IMO it's a lot better to give a worst case scenario and then act sooner than give an optimistic estimate and have to tell people that actually, it's going to go on longer than planned. That would be soul destroying.

JL555

retro:electro wrote: »

Exactly. The measures introduced were needed at the time. They have worked well and we have all played a part in that, and will continue to do so with modified behaviour. But we should be looking to bringing things forward now, or at least having a conversation about the possibility of it, that at least would give some people a bit of hope.

But instead all we get is a telling off because 46% of optimism is “concerning” and Simon telling people to have a bit of cop on like we are school children who aren’t toilet trained and need to be reminded not to piss our pants. People are sick of being spoken down to by doom merchants and finger wagged at. The measures worked, brilliant. Now let’s have a conversation about opening up earlier than planned instead of scolding people for rightly feeling that the worst is over.

We can't because two faced Harris likes to talk down to people, he really likes his own form of moral high ground and the contribution it makes to his sense of self satisfaction.

Arghus

JL555 wrote: »

We can't because two faced Harris likes to talk down to people, he really likes his own form of moral high ground and the contribution it makes to his sense of self satisfaction.

Ah, would ya stop. If case numbers are low and the rest of the continent are getting on with life the government won't wait any longer than they have too. Regardless of how Simon Harris talks to people.

JL555

Arghus wrote: »

Ah, would ya stop. If case numbers are low and the rest of the continent are getting on with life the government won't wait any longer than they have too. Regardless of how Simon Harris talks to people.

?

robbiezero

retro:electro wrote: »

Exactly. The measures introduced were needed at the time. They have worked well and we have all played a part in that, and will continue to do so with modified behaviour. But we should be looking to bringing things forward now, or at least having a conversation about the possibility of it, that at least would give some people a bit of hope.

But instead all we get is a telling off because 46% of optimism is “concerning” and Simon telling people to have a bit of cop on like we are school children who aren’t toilet trained and need to be reminded not to piss our pants. People are sick of being spoken down to by doom merchants and finger wagged at. The measures worked, brilliant. Now let’s have a conversation about opening up earlier than planned instead of scolding people for rightly feeling that the worst is over.

This is absolutely bizarre. 4 deaths and 88 cases today, most other countries seeing vastly reduced numbers too and this number surprises them. I'm surprised its not twice that number, but then you read threads on here, and its not so surprising.

Like how does it not look like the worst is over if you are not a "second wave doom-monger"?

almostover

First day of easing restrictions not going well. Was in the local park earlier, jammed full of large gangs of teenagers blind drunk. Girlfriend reported it to the Gardai, they've had multiple complaints and had been there earlier to break other groups up. Elderly people out in the park with masks on and terrified. Another local village has had fires lit in a graveyard by drunk teens.

Time to open up the schools or else put them all on work experience in an ICU. Would soften their cough fairly lively.

BTW I'm 29, so not a old fart giving out. Still young enough to remember when I was 15.

average_runner

almostover wrote: »

First day of easing restrictions not going well. Was in the local park earlier, jammed full of large gangs of teenagers blind drunk. Girlfriend reported it to the Gardai, they've had multiple complaints and had been there earlier to break other groups up. Elderly people out in the park with masks on and terrified. Another local village has had fires lit in a graveyard by drunk teens.

Time to open up the schools or else put them all on work experience in an ICU. Would soften their cough fairly lively.

BTW I'm 29, so not a old fart giving out. Still young enough to remember when I was 15.

Opening up schools would do nothing, still be in groups

Arghus

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

Doesnt prove anything? it must be a co incidence then that covid peaks after 70 days. ohhh it peaked in China. It has clearly peaked here.

And by the looks of it it is peaking in Sweden

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1102203/cumulative-coronavirus-cases-in-sweden/

Must be a co incidence. Also, below must be a co incidence

https://www.independent.ie/world-news/coronavirus/nobel-scientist-predicts-virus-will-burn-out-in-next-two-weeks-39194015.html

Wow thats 2 scientists. I am fearful to keep going... it seems unravelling

A few reads about your favourite subject: the current situation in Sweden.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2020/05/18/not-romanticise-swedens-ill-prepared-adrift-coronavirus-response/

https://www.france24.com/en/20200517-sweden-s-covid-19-strategy-has-caused-an-amplification-of-the-epidemic

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-economy-likely-wont-benefit-from-decision-avoid-lockdown-report-2020-5?r=US&IR=T