Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

is_that_so

NegativeCreep wrote: »

Is the disease not under control here?

Yes, but we're not where we'd like to be!

LiquidZeb

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You are saying the economy will collapse, I never said that.

I said we may require international assistance if measures need to be restored which would be an IMF bailout package.

And that was such a brilliant experience last time.

NegativeCreep

is_that_so wrote: »

Yes, but we're not where we'd like to be!

Where would we like to be?

Kermit.de.frog

LiquidZeb wrote: »

And that was such a brilliant experience last time.

Not a choice if country is locked out of the debt markets.

You get a lifeline in return for reform.

Surely it is best to avoid such an outcome by not being reckless.

is_that_so

NegativeCreep wrote: »

Where would we like to be?

As low as we possibly can.

LiquidZeb

NegativeCreep wrote: »

Where would we like to be?

I don't know I guess come mid August the lockdown fairy will fly to all the good children who obeyed restrictions and make everything magically safe after that precise date. Not before or after.

FishOnABike

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

I read

"World Health Organization (WHO) chief scientist Dr Soumya Swaminathan says that children are "less capable" of spreading the virus, and are at "very low risk" of getting ill from the disease.

"What we have seen in countries where schools have remained open is that there have not been big outbreaks in schools."

at bottom of article. seem very safe?

good morning btw

Again the devil is in the detail. The article also reports It is still not clear how infectious anyone is if they have very mild symptoms or no symptoms at all - of any age.

It also reports on a study looking at cases in Shenzhen in China at the beginning of the year which suggested children were just as likely to catch the virus, raising the fear that they were transmitting it without showing any symptoms.

Context is everything when interpreting any study. The studies of clusters of infections in family groups across China which concluded, based on contact tracing, that none of the infections were likely to have been introduced by children, spanned the period when affected provences were under severe lockdown e.g. only one person per household allowed out for two hours every second day to buy essential provisions. - hardly circumstances where a child is likely to be the person out and about and likely to have introduced the infection to a household.

The schools which partially opened (thinking of the post showing children isolated in painted boxes in the playground) and implemented social distancing where there was already a decrease in community prevalence of CoViD-19, due to restrictions implemented, did not result in a significant increase in cases. Except in France where several schools were shut down again when cases of CoViD-19 were identified in the schools.

Having heard some of our own politicians state things for which there is not enough evidence for one view or another I'd be concerned that policy decisions would be made based on headlines of articles on reports into studies without appreciating the content and context of the studies themselves.

It's about as logical to conclude that as child drivers do not contribute significantly to motor vehicle collisions therefore it is safe to let children drive.

NegativeCreep

is_that_so wrote: »

As low as we possibly can.

Thanks Tony

LiquidZeb

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Not a choice if country is locked out of the debt markets.

You get a lifeline in return for reform.

Surely it is best to avoid such an outcome by not being reckless.

So do you think Austria and Germany are being reckless? What about all the people whose livelihoods are going to be destroyed by what you're suggesting? It all sounds a bit let them eat cake tbh.

MrDavid1976

is_that_so wrote: »

As low as we possibly can.

How low is low? A number? If all the cases are in under control clusters, is that low enough?

stephenjmcd

https://twitter.com/FergalBowers/status/1263436041316380674?s=19

uli84

ednwireland wrote: »

hse are refusing to do cancer screenings as its too dangerous (i think thats what he said in the dail committee yesterday)

yet opticians and dentists are open

i know of someone diagnosed at the start of march has had nothing from the hse, honestly they need to get there fingers out.

Too dangerous, good joke, honestly

Mic 1972

LiquidZeb wrote: »

But wait I thought you said there was no point as we'd only be back to square one come Autumn?

Lifting restrictions means the numbers will slowly increase, Autumn is an estimate of when the pandemic will ride high again. Nobody pinpointed August as a square one moment. And by the way August is not even an Autumn month

uli84

is_that_so wrote: »

They are not high risk locations and dentists are well well-kitted out anyway. As for the medical side when HIQA are flagging hospital issues it's still unsafe. Nobody involved in such programmes has any issues with the pause at present.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/urgent-action-required-to-curb-infection-risk-in-hospitals-hiqa-warns-1.4258548

Cervical cancer Or diabetic retina Screenings Are NOT done at hospitals. It’s a disgrace these are not restarted yet and seems there isn’t even any plan to restart them.

stephenjmcd

LiquidZeb wrote: »

So do you think Austria and Germany are being reckless? What about all the people whose livelihoods are going to be destroyed by what you're suggesting? It all sounds a bit let them eat cake tbh.

I wouldn't even bother at this stage. Its quite clear that said poster is happy to see the country potentially remain in what is more or less a lockdown with many businesses closed and some wont ever reopen. The cost of this they're happy to take as a bailout and another few years of higher taxes and austerity again....it clearly wont effect him/her so they couldn't care less about those that it would hit harder.

We'll probably be told we're awful people for wanting to go back to work and back to seeing our families and not waiting another 2-3 months to do so.

robbiezero

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Lifting restrictions means the numbers will slowly increase, Autumn is an estimate of when the pandemic will ride high again. Nobody pinpointed August as a square one moment. And by the way August is not even an Autumn month

From where?

Ginger n Lemon

Either reality hits or mask is slipping

‘No such thing as free money’ - Taoiseach warns Covid-19 borrowings have to be repaid"

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/oireachtas/no-such-thing-as-free-money-taoiseach-warns-covid-19-borrowings-have-to-be-repaid-1.4259259?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Foireachtas%2Fno-such-thing-as-free-money-taoiseach-warns-covid-19-borrowings-have-to-be-repaid-1.4259259

But thats ok. According to one poster here we ll ask IMF for "assistance". Get in the queue for food vouchers

PS will Leo & Co be in charge when we are repaying? nah i am just joking, I know he wont be.

Kermit.de.frog

Mic 1972 wrote: »

Lifting restrictions means the numbers will slowly increase, Autumn is an estimate of when the pandemic will ride high again. Nobody pinpointed August as a square one moment. And by the way August is not even an Autumn month

I don't get this obsession with the timeline for reopening given flexibility is built in.

People getting flustered over nothing.

Nermal

The Results of Europe’s Lockdown Experiment Are In

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-europe-lockdown-excess-deaths-recession/

But, as our next chart shows, there’s little correlation between the severity of a nation’s restrictions and whether it managed to curb excess fatalities — a measure that looks at the overall number of deaths compared with normal trends...

Early data show that countries with harsher responses to Covid-19 also suffered more economically.

stephenjmcd

What we all knew, except for those that have been on here saying just keep borrowing it'll never be paid back etc etc
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1263439933345345537?s=19

Mic 1972

robbiezero wrote: »

From where?

From everywhere outside this board

is_that_so

uli84 wrote: »

Cervical cancer Or diabetic retina Screenings Are NOT done at hospitals. It’s a disgrace these are not restarted yet and seems there isn’t even any plan to restart them.

As I said there is widespread medical agreement on the halting of anything like that. They'll happen as soon as they are deemed safe to do.

stephenjmcd

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I don't get this obsession with the timeline for reopening given flexibility is built in.

People getting flustered over nothing.

If I replied to this as I wanted to I'd probably get a ban

Ultimately the frustration on here is having to reply to posters who seem to think their opinions are facts, there will be a second wave, there will be this there will be that. All opinion, both arguments have opinion, some posters like to think its fact. And yes Mr Frog you have portrayed your opinion as fact at times

Facts are we can only look at other countries and the facts in Europe are so far no 2nd wave currently experienced and no sudden surge in countries where restrictions have been and are being lifted.

Yet here we are, mass unemployment (which you'll no doubt dispute) and strangling the life out of the economy for another 2-3 months which some people seem happy to take. Not to mention the open invitation to welcome the IMF with open arms.

Now can you see why people would like to go back to work to try and make sure they still have a job or a business, earn money, see their family... do I need to go on?

Ginger n Lemon

stephenjmcd wrote: »

What we all knew, except for those that have been on here saying just keep borrowing it'll never be paid back etc etc
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1263439933345345537?s=19

"we do not need to be best boys in fiscal class"

He put governments economic response over the last 3 months really well in 1 sentence.

MrDavid1976

is_that_so wrote: »

As I said there is widespread medical agreement on the halting of anything like that. They'll happen as soon as they are deemed safe to do.

What does safe to do so mean? Will that take account of the risk of not doing anything? Is it to ensure social distancing protocols and PPE is available? Or is it dependent on the 'low' figure you mentioned above on the general restrictions.

is_that_so

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

What does safe to do so mean? Will that take account of the risk of not doing anything? Is it to ensure social distancing protocols and PPE is available? Or is it dependent on the 'low' figure you mentioned above on the general restrictions.

No idea. You should contact the HSE and ask them.
You missed the joke in the "low" figure, others got it!

The HorsesMouth

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

You are saying the economy will collapse, I never said that.

I said we may require international assistance if measures need to be restored which would be an IMF bailout package.

It's amazing people seem to think something fundamental has changed between Feb and now regarding COVID.

What is so amazing about it? A lot has most definitely changed since February regarding COVID. We are under social distancing rules, hand washing and hygiene measures. We have a testing and tracing system almost set up in our country. We have hospitals with space for capacity if there is a jump in cases. We have more awareness of how the virus is passed from one person to the next. We have airport's basically closed. The vulnerable and elderly are isolating. No one is visiting nursing homes or people in hospital. Fathers aren't allowed in to see their newborn babies. The list goes on.... All this has changed since February regarding covid.

It's you that doesn't understand that all this has happened and changed so we can actually move on with the economy and life!

lawrencesummers

Nermal wrote: »

The Results of Europe’s Lockdown Experiment Are In

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2020-opinion-coronavirus-europe-lockdown-excess-deaths-recession/

But, as our next chart shows, there’s little correlation between the severity of a nation’s restrictions and whether it managed to curb excess fatalities — a measure that looks at the overall number of deaths compared with normal trends...

Early data show that countries with harsher responses to Covid-19 also suffered more economically.

Apart from the clear political bias that a site like Bloomberg bring to the table isnt the UK the perfect example of suffering the consequences from locking down to late? Their deaths are astronomical and potentially completely understated.

Its clear that they should have instituted lockdowns earlier.

Its clear that Italy should have approached their response cohesively because some areas have far lower rates than others.

Ginger n Lemon

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Apart from the clear political bias that a site like Bloomberg bring to the table isnt the UK the perfect example of suffering the consequences from locking down to late? Their deaths are astronomical and potentially completely understated.

Its clear that they should have instituted lockdowns earlier.

Its clear that Italy should have approached their response cohesively because some areas have far lower rates than others.

No no, whats clear is

But, as our next chart shows, there’s little correlation between the severity of a nation’s restrictions and whether it managed to curb excess fatalities — a measure that looks at the overall number of deaths compared with normal trends...

That is clear.

You need to understand that people die every day, and because 10 more die today with "covid" on a certificate doesnt mean that it wouldve been 100 if you were getting a haircut yesterday. When you get this understanding we can proceed further.

stephenjmcd

stephenjmcd wrote: »

What we all knew, except for those that have been on here saying just keep borrowing it'll never be paid back etc etc
https://twitter.com/rtenews/status/1263439933345345537?s=19

If we don't keep borrowing until we don't need it anymore, nothing we be paid back, and that's why access to finance will remain. Its not a recession, its a sharp shock, and once European governments get their heads together they will understand this they will ensure finance continues to be available. Until then the conservative economic advisor's will continue to treat this like a normal fiscal contraction and think the normal steps to be taken apply