Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

castletownman

From what I have seen some places aren't putting much thought into their social distancing measures.

There are two Subways near me, both in petrol stations at either end of town but one has at least twice the floor-space as the other (it's part of one of those modern forecourts along with a Burger King and a cafe- the former of which is still closed).

Of course, they only re-opened one for now, the one with the smaller floor-space. A very tight fit, especially as it generally does a good trade for people getting fuel anyway. Was in there for lunch- I haven't had a subway in what feels like forever- and it was noticeable that social distancing wasn't really working. Now it didn't help that there was a pocket of chaps in getting ice-cream on a day like today, but I don't see how pubs can be treated as the biggest scapegoats (without even being allowed open till well later in play), when there are other businesses opening and turning a blind eye to spacing themselves.

LiquidZeb

NegativeCreep wrote: »

The market isn’t forcing anything to close. Lockdown is.

Also using the cool emoji doesn’t make you cool

It's actually embarrassing at this point.

iamwhoiam

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

The head of the Health Department said this is here for years and they are not only advising on a lockdown but also want people to never spend two hours in the company of someone else.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/no-covid-19-ban-on-meetings-exceeding-two-hours-says-health-official-1.4

pjohnson

NegativeCreep wrote: »

The market isn’t forcing anything to close. Lockdown is.

Thats certainly a handy excuse. Sure people were claiming lockdown caused Joe.ie to fail :pac:

MrDavid1976

https://m.independent.ie/opinion/comment/we-face-worst-year-ever-for-firms-going-bust-and-theres-brexit-still-to-come-39222862.html

More than 10 companies a week went bust last year in the State after their creditors forced them into liquidation. A lot more businesses quietly and voluntarily went out of business.

That is the nature of a market economy even in the best of times, and last year was about as good as it gets. Now we are plunging into the worst of economic times. Tens of thousands of firms, employing hundreds of thousands of people, are in serious trouble in this country. Much of the rest of the world is in the same boat.

Most Irish businesses have either no cash coming in or have much reduced incomes, according to the latest CSO survey. Barring a medical breakthrough of miraculous proportions in the very short term, 2020 will be the worst year for corporate deaths since the depths of the last recession. It could easily become the worst year ever.

LiquidZeb

pjohnson wrote: »

Thats certainly a handy excuse. Sure people were claiming lockdown caused Joe.ie to fail :pac:

There's a difference between joe.ie failing because they racked up a heap of debt and a small business being put on ice for months on end and somehow expected to meet all overheads and open up as if nothing happened.

paw patrol

paw patrol wrote: »

this may seem odd considering you are on boards so much:

but have you read boards lately - a significant amount of people including yourself with this beautiful missive below about "want to see restrictions on people's lives" (to quote you yourself)

so yeah , they are plenty . Misery guts who want to see others lives curtailed .

I made a post late last night that is sort of related to this.
A lot of the people that are very pro lockdown are also people that tend to disapprove of a lot of things that people enjoy in society.

I've seen lots and lots of digs at pubs, bookies, takeaways etc.
One poster even said that young people shouldn't have sex until a vaccine is found.

There are plenty of people that are pro lockdown because they are either earning more than before for doing less or because they generally like to see other people have things taken from them.

I would say its a minority that actually want to stay in lockdown for health reasons. Sure the illness is gone from the community.

NegativeCreep

pjohnson wrote: »

Thats certainly a handy excuse. Sure people were claiming lockdown caused Joe.ie to fail :pac:

Joe.ie failed because there is little demand for online marketing during lockdown which I’d imagine a lot of their income comes from. They might have been doing bad for a while anyway but that was certainly the final nail in the coffin.

Also lovely use of the laughing emoji at people who lost their jobs.

LiquidZeb

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

https://m.independent.ie/opinion/comment/we-face-worst-year-ever-for-firms-going-bust-and-theres-brexit-still-to-come-39222862.html

More than 10 companies a week went bust last year in the State after their creditors forced them into liquidation. A lot more businesses quietly and voluntarily went out of business.

That is the nature of a market economy even in the best of times, and last year was about as good as it gets. Now we are plunging into the worst of economic times. Tens of thousands of firms, employing hundreds of thousands of people, are in serious trouble in this country. Much of the rest of the world is in the same boat.

Most Irish businesses have either no cash coming in or have much reduced incomes, according to the latest CSO survey. Barring a medical breakthrough of miraculous proportions in the very short term, 2020 will be the worst year for corporate deaths since the depths of the last recession. It could easily become the worst year ever.

Yeah but sure joe.ie went bust so clearly some places are using it as an excuse to destroy their lives work and have Leo and co have a giggle to themselves about it.

paw patrol

Deleted User wrote: »

I made a post late last night that is sort of related to this.
A lot of the people that are very pro lockdown are also people that tend to disapprove of a lot of things that people enjoy in society.

I've seen lots and lots of digs at pubs, bookies, takeaways etc.
One poster even said that young people shouldn't have sex until a vaccine is found.

There are plenty of people that are pro lockdown because they are either earning more than before for doing less or because they generally like to see other people have things taken from them.

I would say its a minority that actually want to stay in lockdown for health reasons. Sure the illness is gone from the community.

your post last night was fantastic.
It hit the nail on the head in a succinct way that I found very hard too.

Paddygreen

Stormyteacup wrote: »

But the issue is that it’s punishable by law to travel more than 5km for anything other than what they deem essential.

Many uncomfortable with that whether you’re flouting the law or not.

These types won’t adjust their behaviors until their purses and wallets are lightened. I have challenged dozens of people at this stage who were not within their exercise circles and the response has been the same, blank me totally or “fup you” “fup off”, “get a fupping life, “go “fup yourself” etc they even brought my mother into it on more than one occasion. I believe a lot of them were from Finglas. Bottom line is the authorities need to be seen coming down hard on these scoundrels.

LiquidZeb

NegativeCreep wrote: »

Joe.ie failed because there is little demand for online marketing during lockdown which I’d imagine a lot of their income comes from. They might have been doing bad for a while anyway but that was certainly the final nail in the coffin.

Also lovely use of the laughing emoji at people who lost their jobs.

You'll find it's all a big lark until it happens to them and the very ones saying que sera sera to us will be the first ones to bleat about how unfair it all is.

FishOnABike

stephenjmcd wrote: »

If I replied to this as I wanted to I'd probably get a ban

Ultimately the frustration on here is having to reply to posters who seem to think their opinions are facts, there will be a second wave, there will be this there will be that. All opinion, both arguments have opinion, some posters like to think its fact. And yes Mr Frog you have portrayed your opinion as fact at times

Facts are we can only look at other countries and the facts in Europe are so far no 2nd wave currently experienced and no sudden surge in countries where restrictions have been and are being lifted.

Yet here we are, mass unemployment (which you'll no doubt dispute) and strangling the life out of the economy for another 2-3 months which some people seem happy to take. Not to mention the open invitation to welcome the IMF with open arms.

Now can you see why people would like to go back to work to try and make sure they still have a job or a business, earn money, see their family... do I need to go on?

I think it's much like many of the reports and studies. There is not yet enough evidence one way or another to safely conclude anything. More study is needed.

lawrencesummers

Nermal wrote: »

Not just wrong, wrong by an order of magnitude.

As i said its "anything up to".

I realize that some reports have it at 6.4% and Italy reported a fatality rate of 13% with the US 4% but time will tell what the exact figure is.

lawrencesummers

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

The head of the Health Department said this is here for years and they are not only advising on a lockdown but also want people to never spend two hours in the company of someone else.

So, again who said we would be borrowing that amount every year?

stephenjmcd

FishOnABike wrote: »

I think it's much like many of the reports and studies. There is not yet enough evidence one way or another to safely conclude anything. More study is needed.

Which is exactly my point. Everything is an opinion until further study concludes and people are entitled to that of course. Some like to present opinion as fact when as you say not yet enough evidence.

MrDavid1976

lawrencesummers wrote: »

So, again who said we would be borrowing that amount every year?

If you shut down the country, kill business, leave hundreds of thousands unemployed, reduce the tax base and importantly become a nanny state of rules and regulations plus at the same time maintain public spending then yes that is where we will be with our borrowing beyond this year.

But the reality is that we won’t get that far. The markets will up the interest rates and we will be unable to borrow off our own back.

And this idea that it is free money is nonsensical. We will have to pay it back.

MrDavid1976

stephenjmcd wrote: »

Which is exactly my point. Everything is an opinion until further study concludes and people are entitled to that of course. Some like to present opinion as fact when as you say not yet enough evidence.

The real time numbers are what we have to go by not projections and modelling. The real numbers tell us that there are very few cases in the community, that ICU numbers are reducing, that the health system has capacity and the curve is well and truly flattened. Absolutely we need to have testing and contact tracing as real time as possible and we need to respect sensible social distancing, but it is absolute madness to continue this lockdown for a second more than is necessary.

ixoy

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

But the reality is that we won’t get that far. The markets will up the interest rates. And this idea that it is free money is nonsensical. We will have to pay it back.

Even Leo agrees: https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0521/1139797-dail-coronavirus/

LiquidZeb

ixoy wrote: »

Even Leo agrees: https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0521/1139797-dail-coronavirus/

Leo should get onto Kermit so he can learn the secret of borrowing money indefinitely and never having to pay it back.

Kermit.de.frog

setanta1984 wrote: »

I know most responses are antagonistic towards you, but this is a sincere question if you (or anyone) could answer it -

Why is a reopening plan of 2-3 months best for this country, but not any other country in Europe?
What is different about Ireland, and Ireland only? Nobody elses plan is even vaguely similar?

There is a misconception that European countries are throwing the doors open and all is back to normal.

This is not true and there will be restrictions to varying degrees across all countries for some months to come.

What I think is the best option for us is to have more limited targeted restrictions for the rest of the year. I'd lift some restrictions now in return for that.

That may be enough to do the job of suppression in a resurgence across Europe allowing us to avoid another panic and blanket restrictions. This means the economy could mostly function as normal and we don't need to impose such restrictions on people's lives.

FishOnABike

Ginger n Lemon wrote: »

No no, whats clear is

But, as our next chart shows, there’s little correlation between the severity of a nation’s restrictions and whether it managed to curb excess fatalities — a measure that looks at the overall number of deaths compared with normal trends...

That is clear.

You need to understand that people die every day, and because 10 more die today with "covid" on a certificate doesnt mean that it wouldve been 100 if you were getting a haircut yesterday. When you get this understanding we can proceed further.

It's interesting from a factual point of view but it doesn't mean much and can be used to reccomend even less.

A complex multivariate problem cannot simply be reduced to a linear cause and effect relationship between two of the variables. There are lots of confounding factors and not enough data to isolate them. How widely had CoViD-19 spread before restrictions were introduced, now prevalent was it, how fast was it spreading, how much of a delay was there, how did medical resources compare, how long we we restrictions in place, etc...

We knew nothing about this ten weeks ago, right now we know a little bit more than nothing. Assume too much from incomplete data and we're liable to trip over our own hubris.

"A fool thinks himself to be wise, but a wise man knows himself to be a fool".

MrDavid1976

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/government-has-not-decided-yet-if-pubs-can-reopen-as-restaurants-1.4259303?mode=amp

The Government has not yet decided whether pubs that serve food should be allowed to reopen as restaurants at the end of June, as many plan.

Officials at a briefing in Government Buildings this morning said discussions were ongoing with industry groups and it was not yet decided whether the pubs would be allowed to declare themselves to be restaurants and reopen on June 29th, rather than on August 10th, when pubs are permitted to reopen.

According to figures from the Licensed Vintners Association (LVA), a trade group that represents pubs in Dublin, 44 per cent of pubs plan to reopen their premises on June 29th.

Under the Government’s plans, pubs are supposed to reopen at the fifth phase of the lifting of lockdown restrictions in August while restaurants are allowed to reopen from the third phase at the end of next month.

The LVA said its figures suggest about 330 pubs will reopen at the third phase to serve food on their premises on the same basis as restaurants given that they have restaurant certificates “and accordingly are licensed restaurants”.

Speaking at Government Buildings this morning, senior official Liz Canavan said that the vintners’ plans were a “concern”, but that conversations were ongoing with their representatives. It was not decided yet whether the reopening would be permitted.

She also said some shops that should not have reopened under the roadmap had already done so.

However, she said that despite some concern in Government, it is happy that the general level of compliance with the restrictions remains high. Ms Canavan said where beaches and bathing spots had become congested, gardaí had moved in to ask people to disperse, and their requests had been complied with.

New Covid policing regulations have had to be invoked 241 times out of hundreds of thousands of interactions, she said.

“The emphasis continues to be placed on policing by consent with gardaí in the community aiming to engage, educate and encourage before applying enforcement, which is used as a last resort,” she said.

“To be fair to everyone, you should try to limit your time in these locations so that there can be a good throughput of all of the people who want to enjoy the same amenity – do your exercise and go. If you can, you should go somewhere less busy to avoid a situation where you cannot social distance,” Ms Canavan said.

VillageIdiot71

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Who said anything about borrowing that amount every year.

So how much are you willing to borrow every year? Ye seem to think its just about foregoing a hairdo.

Ye don't even say if you'll be paying hairdressers €350 for the next two years.

Kermit.de.frog

LiquidZeb wrote: »

It's actually embarrassing at this point.

Not my fault you can't make a coherent argument.

road_high

VillageIdiot71 wrote: »

So how much are you willing to borrow every year? Ye seem to think its just about foregoing a hairdo.

Ye don't even say if you'll be paying hairdressers €350 for the next two years.

I think these people seem to think the economy is like some kind of light switch you can flick on and off and you’ll be back to what it was before regardless.

road_high

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

If you shut down the country, kill business, leave hundreds of thousands unemployed, reduce the tax base and importantly become a nanny state of rules and regulations plus at the same time maintain public spending then yes that is where we will be with our borrowing beyond this year.

But the reality is that we won’t get that far. The markets will up the interest rates and we will be unable to borrow off our own back.

And this idea that it is free money is nonsensical. We will have to pay it back.

The Taoiseach is clearly changing his tune, he’s obviously getting stark warnings about the cost of borrowing for Ireland creeping up in the not too distant future from the DofF. He wouldn’t be standing up in the Dáil saying this if it wasn’t true.

Kermit.de.frog

road_high wrote: »

I think these people seem to think the economy is like some kind of light switch you can flick on and off and you’ll be back to what it was before regardless.

...said no one

NegativeCreep

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/government-has-not-decided-yet-if-pubs-can-reopen-as-restaurants-1.4259303?mode=amp

The Government has not yet decided whether pubs that serve food should be allowed to reopen as restaurants at the end of June, as many plan.

Officials at a briefing in Government Buildings this morning said discussions were ongoing with industry groups and it was not yet decided whether the pubs would be allowed to declare themselves to be restaurants and reopen on June 29th, rather than on August 10th, when pubs are permitted to reopen.

According to figures from the Licensed Vintners Association (LVA), a trade group that represents pubs in Dublin, 44 per cent of pubs plan to reopen their premises on June 29th.

Under the Government’s plans, pubs are supposed to reopen at the fifth phase of the lifting of lockdown restrictions in August while restaurants are allowed to reopen from the third phase at the end of next month.

The LVA said its figures suggest about 330 pubs will reopen at the third phase to serve food on their premises on the same basis as restaurants given that they have restaurant certificates “and accordingly are licensed restaurants”.

Speaking at Government Buildings this morning, senior official Liz Canavan said that the vintners’ plans were a “concern”, but that conversations were ongoing with their representatives. It was not decided yet whether the reopening would be permitted.

She also said some shops that should not have reopened under the roadmap had already done so.

However, she said that despite some concern in Government, it is happy that the general level of compliance with the restrictions remains high. Ms Canavan said where beaches and bathing spots had become congested, gardaí had moved in to ask people to disperse, and their requests had been complied with.

New Covid policing regulations have had to be invoked 241 times out of hundreds of thousands of interactions, she said.

“The emphasis continues to be placed on policing by consent with gardaí in the community aiming to engage, educate and encourage before applying enforcement, which is used as a last resort,” she said.

“To be fair to everyone, you should try to limit your time in these locations so that there can be a good throughput of all of the people who want to enjoy the same amenity – do your exercise and go. If you can, you should go somewhere less busy to avoid a situation where you cannot social distance,” Ms Canavan said.

If they have restaurant licenses, they’re restaurants. Tough s**t

LiquidZeb

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Not my fault you can't make a coherent argument.

We have made a coherent argument. Just because you'd rather ignore it doesn't make it incoherent.