Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

Stark

road_high wrote: »

The Taoiseach is clearly changing his tune, he’s obviously getting stark warnings about the cost of borrowing for Ireland creeping up in the not too distant future from the DofF. He wouldn’t be standing up in the Dáil saying this if it wasn’t true.

Still saying they won't make any decision on next phase of easing till Jun 5th though. So no chance of "fast tracking" if each phase decision won't be made until a couple of days before original date.

mariaalice

I would be concerned that the reopening is getting very messy in all sorts of areas at this stage and this could lead to real trouble.

Kermit.de.frog

LiquidZeb wrote: »

We have made a coherent argument. Just because you'd rather ignore it doesn't make it incoherent.

It's antagonistic and aggressive but not coherent.

No answers to anything just open the place up.

When the risks are outlined the refrain is to either insult those outlining the risks or just ignore the points made and go off on a tangent.

I'm being generous in putting it down to genuine concern but ignorance will not get us through this problem I'm afraid.

road_high

Stark wrote: »

Still saying they won't make any decision on next phase of easing till Jun 5th though. So no chance of "fast tracking" if each phase decision won't be made until a couple of days before original date.

Well that’ll be the rock they’ll perish on then. If he wants to warn about the economy and do nothing about then so be it but it’ll be him delivering the cuts required

setanta1984

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is a misconception that European countries are throwing the doors open and all is back to normal.

This is not true and there will be restrictions to varying degrees across all countries for some months to come.

What I think is the best option for us is to have more limited targeted restrictions for the rest of the year. I'd lift some restrictions now in return for that.

That may be enough to do the job of suppression in a resurgence across Europe allowing us to avoid another panic and blanket restrictions. This means the economy could mostly function as normal and we don't need to impose such restrictions on people's lives.

I appreciate you responding.

But, all you've really said there is to deny Europe are months ahead of our planned easing. Nobody denies some restrictions will remain everywhere for longer, like mass gatherings and concerts. Thats a given.
We're talking about businesses, workers, shops, services, cafes, restaurants, bars, movement.
This is a screenshot I took over 2 weeks ago from the Guardian - https://i.ibb.co/wpqSyjG/Screenshot-2020-05-09-at-01-07-58.png - (they do a really nice graphic with a map and listing the restriction state, I can't find a more up to date one sadly)
Just look at that list of things already eased or planned on easing from May 11 - shops, restaurants, bars, museums, schools, hairdressers, industry - all opened in various countries as planned since then. Countries have even accelerated plans since then, like Italy moving forward a load to this monday. https://i.ibb.co/R3fYtGT/Screenshot-2020-05-12-at-09-32-16.png

It's simply wrong to say their plans are comparable to ours.

Surely you can't deny that?
So respectfully, the same question as previously, why are we different?

To say our plan isn't months slower that everywhere else is blatant head in the sand stuff, even our officials admit it.

Kermit.de.frog

mariaalice wrote: »

I would be concerned that the reopening is getting very messy in all sorts of areas at this stage and this could lead to real trouble.

I'd tend to agree.

road_high

mariaalice wrote: »

I would be concerned that the reopening is getting very messy in all sorts of areas at this stage and this could lead to real trouble.

Well it’s all brought on themselves. The so called road map was a joke the instant it was regurgitated and that’s only become magnified since

Kermit.de.frog

setanta1984 wrote: »

I appreciate you responding.

But, all you've really said there is to deny Europe are months ahead of our planned easing. Nobody denies some restrictions will remain everywhere for longer, like mass gatherings and concerts. Thats a given.
We're talking about businesses, workers, shops, services, cafes, restaurants, bars, movement.
This is a screenshot I took over 2 weeks ago from the Guardian - https://i.ibb.co/wpqSyjG/Screenshot-2020-05-09-at-01-07-58.png - (they do a really nice graphic with a map and listing the restriction state, I can't find a more up to date one sadly)
Just look at that list of things already eased or planned on easing from May 11 - shops, restaurants, bars, museums, schools, hairdressers, industry - all opened in various countries as planned since then. Countries have even accelerated plans since then, like Italy moving forward a load to this monday. https://i.ibb.co/R3fYtGT/Screenshot-2020-05-12-at-09-32-16.png

It's simply wrong to say their plans are comparable to ours.

Surely you can't deny that?
So respectfully, the same question as previously, why are we different?

To say our plan isn't months slower that everywhere else is blatant head in the sand stuff, even our officials admit it.

I never said we were not slower than others.

We have to do what is best for our country and that will depend on the data ultimately.

There is flexibility built in which means in reality it won't be much different in the end.

LiquidZeb

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

It's antagonistic and aggressive but not coherent.

No answers to anything just open the place up.

When the risks are outlined the refrain is to either insult those outlining the risks or just ignore the points made and go off on a tangent.

I'm being generous in putting it down to genuine concern but ignorance will not get us through this problem I'm afraid.

No one's saying open everything up at once but to emulate there Danish and Germans. Who've gotten it right. I don't see any insults against you here unless people disagreeing with you is considered an insult. Also you're ignorant judging by your childlike understanding of National debt and borrowing.

Kermit.de.frog

LiquidZeb wrote: »

No one's saying open everything up at once but to emulate there Danish and Germans. Who've gotten it right. I don't see any insults against you here unless people disagreeing with you is considered an insult. Also you're ignorant judging by your childlike understanding of National debt and borrowing.

My childlike understanding of national debt?

What have I misunderstood?

You say you don't insult other posters but you have just insulted me there.

What opinion have I expressed on the national debt?

setanta1984

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I never said we were not slower than others.

We have to do what is best for our country and that will depend on the data ultimately.

Ok great. So we agree we are slower.

My simple question is, why is waiting to August to do what other countries are doing now (or since April in some cases) right for Ireland but not for every other country, in your opinion? (That question is for anyone who agrees with the plan taking until August)

I keep asking this question because the government have never explained, which is what is so disheartening.

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There is flexibility built in which means in reality it won't be much different in the end.

I truly hope this is the case. I don't have any confidence in that happening sadly, based on their record to now
Again we are the only country it seems where we are being kept in the dark - no criteria, metrics or targets given to the public to give us hope that it may be flexible.

LiquidZeb

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

My childlike understanding of national debt?

What have I misunderstood?

You say you don't insult other posters but you have just insulted me there.

What opinion have I expressed on the national debt?

That we can just borrow indefinitely. We can't. Varadker himself has said so now. If you're so worried about the virus I suggest you order a lifetimes supply of beans and water and just sit at home. Whether you like it or not we need to get society functioning again. Lockdown was only ever a temporary and once off measure.

ixoy

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I never said we were not slower than others.

We have to do what is best for our country and that will depend on the data ultimately.

There is flexibility built in which means in reality it won't be much different in the end.

Not sure why I'm bothering but:
* What data? What's the target?

* In the end? Sure. But the longer it takes to get to that end, the more potential damage along the way. You can see that right?

Kermit.de.frog

LiquidZeb wrote: »

That we can just borrow indefinitely.

When did I ever say that?

I have said the exact opposite.

You are seeing things that don't exist.

CruelSummer

I think as many people as possible should lobby TD's and elected officials at this stage. The damage this will do to Ireland's reputation internationally is colossal. We won't be entitled to any more or any less from the EU bailout fund than anyone else, especially as our numbers were never that bad to begin with. They are not going to turn around and give us more money for staying closed inexplicably for longer.

The void in government here is turning out to be a massive problem, and if they don't sort it soon - we'll have to go to the polls again.
NPHET have lost the public by talking down to them, threatening to re-impose restrictions if we're not good little girls and boys, and their ultra conservative approach with no criteria or reasoning given why we're different to the rest of the EU.

The gamble on going to the polls is, if people take out their anger on FG and FF and we end up with Sinn Féin...who recommended Covid payments until Christmas, the private hospitals to remain with government costing €115million per month, our borrowing costs will skyrocket.
Another bailout will loom...and then what?

Kermit.de.frog

ixoy wrote: »

Not sure why I'm bothering but:
* What data? What's the target?

* In the end? Sure. But the longer it takes to get to that end, the more potential damage along the way. You can see that right?

I'm not bothered myself so

LiquidZeb

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

When did I ever say that?

I have said the exact opposite.

You are seeing things that don't exist.

You are saying the economy will collapse, I never said that.

I said we may require international assistance if measures need to be restored which would be an IMF bailout package.




You said this 3 hours ago.

Mic 1972

LiquidZeb wrote: »

No one's saying open everything up at once but to emulate there Danish and Germans. Who've gotten it right. I don't see any insults against you here unless people disagreeing with you is considered an insult. Also you're ignorant judging by your childlike understanding of National debt and borrowing.

LOL

LiquidZeb

Mic 1972 wrote: »

LOL

He called me ignorant first.

Kermit.de.frog

LiquidZeb wrote: »

You are saying the economy will collapse, I never said that.

I said we may require international assistance if measures need to be restored which would be an IMF bailout package.




You said this 3 hours ago.

I'm sorry I think you are confused.

That clearly says that we can't borrow indefinitely because our yields will rise to the extent we are locked put of the debt markets thus we would need assistance.

So you are evidently wrong and of course won't apologise for pedalling mistruths I take it?

You, and others, keep making up things others never said.

the kelt

ixoy wrote: »

Not sure why I'm bothering but:
* What data? What's the target?

* In the end? Sure. But the longer it takes to get to that end, the more potential damage along the way. You can see that right?

The data is a secret!! as is the target, that will make it all the more exciting when we hit it because no one knows what it is.

Its numbers now just stfah ok!!!

Think that pretty much covers what the replies will be, i was going to say answers but there wont be answers.

Kermit.de.frog

LiquidZeb wrote: »

He called me ignorant first.

No. I said ignorance won't get us out of this. Does not mean I'm referring to you. Clearly wasn't.

Stark

Target is "as low as possible".

Goalposts are "as far away as possible".

lawrencesummers

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

If you shut down the country, kill business, leave hundreds of thousands unemployed, reduce the tax base and importantly become a nanny state of rules and regulations plus at the same time maintain public spending then yes that is where we will be with our borrowing beyond this year.

But the reality is that we won’t get that far. The markets will up the interest rates and we will be unable to borrow off our own back.

And this idea that it is free money is nonsensical. We will have to pay it back.

So nobody said it, and the original post, much the same as yours is just doomsday nonsense mixed with gemma and John type nanny state rhetoric, the country hasnt shut down, just the unnecessary and irrelevant job holders are told to stay home for a while. They will all be back.

polesheep

lawrencesummers wrote: »

I can understand your simplistic haircut analogy if you can accept that because 100 have died its not possible to prove it wouldn't have been 1000 dead had nothing been done, but the medically scientific research and analysis says it would have been.

We have seen high case numbers where restrictions have not been in place.
We know that higher case numbers means more deaths.
We know the mortality rate is anything up to 3%
So the less restrictions the more spread, the more spread the more dead.
You can insist on putting two and two together and getting 3 but your always going to be wrong.

The severity of restrictions is only one aspect, there are a significant number of other aspects that have to be considered. Testing, population density, initiation of restrictions, recorded first death, actual first death.

In this piece the severity of restrictions is an opinion they have formed, and it makes up a valuable measure in a suite of measures that some nations have used to combat this but not the only one.

The line in bold is both wrong and key at the same time. Higher case numbers among the vulnerable cohort would result in higher deaths, but if the vulnerable cohort is cocooned and kept safe, then there is no reason to assume that higher case numbers will lead to higher deaths. A blanket lockdown was the wrong reaction.

NegativeCreep

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

I'm not bothered myself so

You can’t answer the questions because you haven’t a clue

Kermit.de.frog

NegativeCreep wrote: »

You can’t answer the questions because you haven’t a clue

I said before if you take Austria and Demark then, per capita between 10 and 30 new cases /day would be my guess.

the kelt

lawrencesummers wrote: »

So nobody said it, and the original post, much the same as yours is just doomsday nonsense mixed with gemma and John type nanny state rhetoric, the country hasnt shut down, just the unnecessary and irrelevant job holders are told to stay home for a while. They will all be back.

Unnecessary and Irrelevant job holders!!!

Well im sure theres a couple of hundred thousand people or so who will love to be addressed as irrelevant.

Does kinda sum up the whole thing though, they dont seem to matter a whole lot in the grand scheme of things.

RGS

MrDavid1976 wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/health/government-has-not-decided-yet-if-pubs-can-reopen-as-restaurants-1.4259303?mode=amp

The Government has not yet decided whether pubs that serve food should be allowed to reopen as restaurants at the end of June, as many plan.

Officials at a briefing in Government Buildings this morning said discussions were ongoing with industry groups and it was not yet decided whether the pubs would be allowed to declare themselves to be restaurants and reopen on June 29th, rather than on August 10th, when pubs are permitted to reopen.

According to figures from the Licensed Vintners Association (LVA), a trade group that represents pubs in Dublin, 44 per cent of pubs plan to reopen their premises on June 29th.

Under the Government’s plans, pubs are supposed to reopen at the fifth phase of the lifting of lockdown restrictions in August while restaurants are allowed to reopen from the third phase at the end of next month.

The LVA said its figures suggest about 330 pubs will reopen at the third phase to serve food on their premises on the same basis as restaurants given that they have restaurant certificates “and accordingly are licensed restaurants”.

Speaking at Government Buildings this morning, senior official Liz Canavan said that the vintners’ plans were a “concern”, but that conversations were ongoing with their representatives. It was not decided yet whether the reopening would be permitted.

She also said some shops that should not have reopened under the roadmap had already done so.

However, she said that despite some concern in Government, it is happy that the general level of compliance with the restrictions remains high. Ms Canavan said where beaches and bathing spots had become congested, gardaí had moved in to ask people to disperse, and their requests had been complied with.

New Covid policing regulations have had to be invoked 241 times out of hundreds of thousands of interactions, she said.

“The emphasis continues to be placed on policing by consent with gardaí in the community aiming to engage, educate and encourage before applying enforcement, which is used as a last resort,” she said.

“To be fair to everyone, you should try to limit your time in these locations so that there can be a good throughput of all of the people who want to enjoy the same amenity – do your exercise and go. If you can, you should go somewhere less busy to avoid a situation where you cannot social distance,” Ms Canavan said.

This looks like an excuse to push the restaurant opening back a phase or two.
We saw the reaction to Ikea opening.
The flexibility appears to be one way---- backwards.

greenfield21

We were all laughing at the folks int the US protesting lockdowns now it looks like we're all going to join them. Nearly everyone sneering at them a while back on here.