Relaxation of Restrictions, Part III - **Read OP for Mod Warnings**

lawrencesummers

Breezin wrote: »

Actually hilarious. She's Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford! You don't like her science and you're damned if you're gonna listen to it.

Some of the stupidest people I have ever met have been university professors. I kid you not, the detachment from reality among that theoretical Minded cohort of people is frightening, the lack of real world experience and ivory tower Attitude is a dangerous mix.

Breezin

Breezin wrote: »

Actually hilarious. She's Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford! You don't like her science and you're damned if you're gonna listen to it.

What about all the other epidemiologists and immunologists who don’t share her view? Are they all wrong? If there was evidence to back up her claim that 50% + plus of the population have been infected I would happily laud her claims. But there isn’t. This is the story of two competing models, the Imperial model and the Oxford model. Antibody testing so far supports the Imperial model as being closer to the death rate, but I would be delighted to hear evidence that it’s actually a 0.1% or less death rate as she claims.

is_that_so

RobitTV wrote: »

Let's re-open the economy in June then. We don't need the restrictions to last until August.

I'm not questioning the lockdown itself, im questioning the timescale and i don't agree with the timescale and the current phased plan.

I think it will be June-July with a few things left in August. I also reckon schools will back in August.

retro:electro

AdamD wrote: »

Genuinely could be wrong here but any comments I've seen have been more along the lines of 'its not set in stone', than any sort of hint towards the possibility of moving the timeline. The language hasn't suggested its likely at all. Plenty of comments saying we can go back a step though.

I also haven’t seen nor heard anyone say they’re willing and hopeful to speed things up should the numbers be in favour of us doing so. I’d be willing to read anything that anyone has to offer where they say they’re happy to do this? Anyone willing to provide?

Kermit.de.frog

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Can you point to a single post where any poster wants a 'lock down'?

Thought not.

Nobody wants restrictions. There is a difference between wanting and needing.

The posts don't exist.

To be fair, nobody is going to admit that they love lockdown because they hate that others like alcohol and bookies and are delighted they’re closed. But the tone is easily detected in the posts.

Also, nobody wants to admit that they love lockdown because they earn more for doing less.

Arghus

pjohnson wrote: »

If you dont agree fully you are the enemy and must be defeated.

And to be honest I see the insults mainly coming from one direction:

"Curtin twitchers. "

"Doom and gloom mongers. "

"Pretentious clown."

LiquidZeb

is_that_so wrote: »

I read what she had to say and there nothing we haven't heard or seen already.

Where's your qualification from? Twitter Institute of Self Appointed Experts?

Breezin

In her first major interview since the Oxford study was published, she goes further by arguing that Covid-19 has already passed through the population and is now on its way out. She said:

On antibodies:
• Many of the antibody tests are “extremely unreliable”
• They do not indicate the true level of exposure or level of immunity
• “Different countries have had different lockdown policies, and yet what we’ve observed is almost a uniform pattern of behaviour”
• “Much of the driving force was due to the build-up of immunity”

On IFR:
• “Infection Fatality Rate is less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.”
• That would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%

On lockdown policy:
• Referring to the Imperial model: “Should we act on a possible worst case scenario, given the costs of lockdown? It seems to me that given that the costs of lockdown are mounting that case is becoming more and more fragile”
• Recommends “a more rapid exit from lockdown based more on certain heuristics, like who is dying and what is happening to the death rates”

On the UK Government response:
• “We might have done better by doing nothing at all, or at least by doing something different, which would have been to pay attention to protecting the vulnerable”

On the R rate:
• It is “principally dependent on how many people are immune” and we don’t have that information.
• Deaths are the only reliable measure.

On New York:
• “When you have pockets of vulnerable people it might rip through those pockets in a way that it wouldn’t if the vulnerable people were more scattered within the general population.”

On social distancing:
• “Remaining in a state of lockdown is extremely dangerous”
• “We used to live in a state approximating lockdown 100 years ago, and that was what created the conditions for the Spanish Flu to come in and kill 50m people.”

On next steps:
• “It is very dangerous to talk about lockdown without recognising the enormous costs that it has on other vulnerable sectors in the population”
• It is a “strong possibility” that if we return to full normal tomorrow — pubs, nightclubs, festivals — we would be fine.

On the politics of Covid:
• “There is a sort of libertarian argument for the release of lockdown, and I think it is unfortunate that those of us who feel we should think differently about lockdown"
• “The truth is that lockdown is a luxury, and it’s a luxury that the middle classes are enjoying and higher income countries are enjoying at the expense of the poor, the vulnerable and less developed countries.”

I'm just back in the Republic from 6 hours hiking in the North. It was the best day I've had since the beginning of these restrictions. I met a friend of mine from Rostrevor on the track to the mountains and we headed off from there. We met a few other groups of 6 Northern hikers all thrilled to bits to be back out in the great outdoors. Since yesterday you can go anywhere you like for exercise in the North within groups of 6.
Both Warrenpoint and Rostrevor were busy, lots of people about, coffee shops doing take out goods, plus you can sit outside , they all have tables and chairs out, supermarkets and small shops all open as well as garden centers. There was a real buzz.

The ironic thing about today is that my friend has already planned 2 trips to the South in the next few weeks to do some hiking and touring. He has a tent so will be self sufficient. He's delighted it will be so quiet in the South! Yet I live in Louth and we cant go further than 5km. Not until after July 20th, 2 months away, can anyone go further than 20km (the hikers I chatted to on the mountains today couldn't believe this ). I would have more chance of being stopped going 8km in the South than if I drive over the border to hike. Yet Northerners can come down here and travel anywhere they want.


Met no checkpoints at all today, once you get over the border there are no police and no restrictions. People are treated like adults. Nobody is flaunting social distancing, even on the hills. I'd strongly recommend anyone who is feeling depressed and restricted and who lives in Louth, Donegal or other border counties to head North for a day out away from the oppressiveness here.

LiquidZeb

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Ah yeah sure any eejit can become an Oxford professor of theoretical epidemiology.

A phd does make someone immune from being wrong. What are Cambridge, imperial, Harvard, Stanford, rcsi, Johns Hopkins, Heidelberg, Leiden or any other top med schools in the world saying about this?

retro:electro

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm just back in the Republic from 6 hours hiking in the North. It was the best day I've had since the beginning of these restrictions. I met a friend of mine from Rostrevor on the track to the mountains and we headed off from there. We met a few other groups of 6 Northern hikers all thrilled to bits to be back out in the great outdoors. Since yesterday you can go anywhere you like for exercise in the North within groups of 6.
Both Warrenpoint and Rostrevor were busy, lots of people about, coffee shops doing take out goods, plus you can sit outside , they all have tables and chairs out, supermarkets and small shops all open as well as garden centers. There was a real buzz.

The ironic thing about today is that my friend has already planned 2 trips to the South in the next few weeks to do some hiking and touring. He has a tent so will be self sufficient. He's delighted it will be so quiet in the South! Yet I live in Louth and we cant go further than 5km. Not until after July 20th, 2 months away, can anyone go further than 20km (the hikers I chatted to on the mountains today couldn't believe this ). I would have more chance of being stopped going 8km in the South than if I drive over the border to hike. Yet Northerners can come down here and travel anywhere they want.


Met no checkpoints at all today, once you get over the border there are no police and no restrictions. People are treated like adults. Nobody is flaunting social distancing, even on the hills. I'd strongly recommend anyone who is feeling depressed and restricted and who lives in Louth, Donegal or other border counties to head North for a day out away from the oppressiveness here.

Delighted you had a good day sweetmaggie. You deserve it.

snowcat

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Some of the stupidest people I have ever met have been university professors. I kid you not, the detachment from reality among that theoretical Minded cohort of people is frightening, the lack of real world experience and ivory tower Attitude is a dangerous mix.

You really dont like scientists. What actually is your area of speciality?

lawrencesummers

Deleted User wrote: »

I'm just back in the Republic from 6 hours hiking in the North. It was the best day I've had since the beginning of these restrictions. I met a friend of mine from Rostrevor on the track to the mountains and we headed off from there. We met a few other groups of 6 Northern hikers all thrilled to bits to be back out in the great outdoors. Since yesterday you can go anywhere you like for exercise in the North within groups of 6.
Both Warrenpoint and Rostrevor were busy, lots of people about, coffee shops doing take out goods, plus you can sit outside , they all have tables and chairs out, supermarkets and small shops all open as well as garden centers. There was a real buzz.

The ironic thing about today is that my friend has already planned 2 trips to the South in the next few weeks to do some hiking and touring. He has a tent so will be self sufficient. He's delighted it will be so quiet in the South! Yet I live in Louth and we cant go further than 5km. Not until after July 20th, 2 months away, can anyone go further than 20km (the hikers I chatted to on the mountains today couldn't believe this ). I would have more chance of being stopped going 8km in the South than if I drive over the border to hike. Yet Northerners can come down here and travel anywhere they want.


Met no checkpoints at all today, once you get over the border there are no police and no restrictions. People are treated like adults. Nobody is flaunting social distancing, even on the hills. I'd strongly recommend anyone who is feeling depressed and restricted and who lives in Louth, Donegal or other border counties to head North for a day out away from the oppressiveness here.

It’s one thing to openly flout the medical advice that has been given, it’s another to boast about it and rub peoples noses in it who are conforming to the guidelines even if they don’t want to.

The hills aren’t going anywhere. People are unfortunately and your selfishness is quiet frankly ****ing disgusting.

Arghus

AdamD wrote: »

Genuinely could be wrong here but any comments I've seen have been more along the lines of 'its not set in stone', than any sort of hint towards the possibility of moving the timeline. The language hasn't suggested its likely at all. Plenty of comments saying we can go back a step though.

Well, they can't say now that we'll move forward at an accelerated pace for definite - because that's an impossible promise because they can't predict the future. It's all dependant on the future growth or lack thereof the virus. That's precisely why they say it's not set in stone.

We could go forward quicker and we could go backwards once again, depending on circumstances. This is not a secret: It's repeated A LOT by the DOH.

is_that_so

LiquidZeb wrote: »

Where's your qualification from? Twitter Institute of Self Appointed Experts?

The same place yours came from - the font of the wholly self-appointed. In my defence I am pretty good on reading tasks and summarising them.

LiquidZeb

lawrencesummers wrote: »

It’s one thing to openly flout the medical advice that has been given, it’s another to boast about it and rub peoples noses in it who are conforming to the guidelines even if they don’t want to.

The hills aren’t going anywhere. People are unfortunately and your selfishness is quiet frankly ****ing disgusting.

Why don't you take a deep breath? You're being completely hysterical and petty.

Mike3287

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Reading that I suggest any budding epidemiologists go to Cambridge not Oxford. Reads like a boards post. I have my theory and because the facts don’t match my theory they are wrong. No evidence at all as to why antibody test are so wrong as to only to detect a tiny fraction of those supposedly exposed.

Something is up because it doesnt seem to spread easily at all for a virus lauded as extremely contagious

Its been around since November and infected less than 5% of population in most countries worldwide 6 months later.

But then every man, woman and child had the flu going around at Christmas, yet Covid19 was supposedly many times more contagious than a flu

They've overlooked something these scientists with Covid that's for sure

I know 1 guy that had it, had no symptoms and infected none of his family members, 3 kids, wife, his colleagues, residents, this guy is loud, talks alot

They were all tested anyway, as he works in nursing home and all negative except him

I would be confident they dont have antibodies either if they were tested

Either the test he got was a false positive, Covid19 isn't that contagious or alot of people have a hidden immunity that they cant test for currently

Something is up that's for sure

You want to be very naive to think our half assed lockdown could stop a supposedly novel contagious virus with no immunity in its tracks lol

lawrencesummers

snowcat wrote: »

You really dont like scientists. What actually is your area of speciality?

I have no issue with scientists, your just attempting to become enraged on behalf of other people. Which is silly.

I dont have an area of expertise as such.
I make my living from a few different areas (one of which involves working with scientists actually!)

LiquidZeb

is_that_so wrote: »

The same place yours came from - the font of the wholly self-appointed. In my defence I am pretty good on reading tasks and summarising them.

So you know more than an Oxford professor of epidemiology?

Kermit.de.frog

RobitTV wrote: »

Let's re-open the economy in June then. We don't need the restrictions to last until August.

I'm not questioning the lockdown itself, im questioning the timescale and i don't agree with the timescale and the current phased plan.

You're free not to agree with it. It's a free country

Opening is dependent on the behaviour of the virus.

As i'm blue in the face repeating opening can be brought forward if the virus is suppressed in the community.

It's quite likely it will be assuming the number of new infections continues to decline and level off a low base.

CruelSummer

lawrencesummers wrote: »

Your post attacked the people who disagree with you, not looking for discussion.

As for where I stand on it.... that will take some explaining.

I’m given to believe that it’s open to change, And it needs to be, not all of the rules have made sense to me but there has to be some hard and fast rule about things, when you make one exception you have to make hundreds.(The 5km thing doesn’t make sense for cycling alone, or driving to a golf course)

The restrictions seem overly cautious but thats not to be proven until we are out of the woods. The ultimate goal has to be avoidance of a second wave because a second lockdown is the worst possible outcome.

The roadmap doesn’t address international travel and that’s a major worry, we are very close to eradicating the presence of the disease here, but international travel is a risk for it returning.

I have the same belief about this that I have had since day one, there is no guidebook, no experienced tried and tested playbook for handling this Based upon Detailed peer reviewed scientific analysis of the disease and ultimately mistakes are guaranteed to be made along the way by those making decisions. I prefer that those mistakes are made in being over cautious, not overly optimistic.,

Open to early and risk another wave, open to late and the economy bounces back later. That’s the risk I see.

Ok thanks for that. You could’ve given it without the dig at the start...But at least I know where you’re coming from now.
Personally I think we’re far too slow to exit lockdown. The data suggests the fit and healthy do ok with this virus and we need them out generating employment, tax revenues and living life. The government and NPHET don’t seem to acknowledge this and their message has many people absolutely terrified, even to go out to the shop.
Homewares and all other shops should be open under the same rules as hardware if they are able to comply with the current rules.
I agree the 5km rule is very tough on people, we haven’t seen extended close family in months at this stage. It doesn’t make any sense. Practising social distancing and other safeguards as we exit make much more sense to me than this. Could the government not lift the travel limit & put a numbers capacity on popular public amenities if this is what they’re worried about? They could give twitter updates saying capacity reached, etc. Some beaches in France are using roped off areas for people to attend safely, with a time limit of 3 hours. It’s a good idea and could be used here, instead of us all having to stay within 20km for June.
Subject to numbers over the coming weeks, I also think we need to forget this ‘new normal’ concept. These measures should be temporary and subject to outbreaks, hospital pressures, etc. I’ll be very interested to see how Denmark fares in the coming weeks as they’re looking to reduce the social distance between people to 1 metre. I don’t think it’s feasible long term to have social/physical distancing in place. Children in particular will be badly affected by this, and the ‘pod’ idea is a recipe for disaster in my view at schools.

lawrencesummers

lawrencesummers wrote: »

It’s one thing to openly flout the medical advice that has been given, it’s another to boast about it and rub peoples noses in it who are conforming to the guidelines even if they don’t want to.

The hills aren’t going anywhere. People are unfortunately and your selfishness is quiet frankly ****ing disgusting.

Nothing in her posts suggests she added any appreciable risk to anyone.

retro:electro

retro:electro wrote: »

Delighted you had a good day sweetmaggie. You deserve it.

thanks Retro - it really helped my head - badly needed

CruelSummer

Breezin wrote: »

In her first major interview since the Oxford study was published, she goes further by arguing that Covid-19 has already passed through the population and is now on its way out. She said:

On antibodies:
• Many of the antibody tests are “extremely unreliable”
• They do not indicate the true level of exposure or level of immunity
• “Different countries have had different lockdown policies, and yet what we’ve observed is almost a uniform pattern of behaviour”
• “Much of the driving force was due to the build-up of immunity”

On IFR:
• “Infection Fatality Rate is less than 1 in 1000 and probably closer to 1 in 10,000.”
• That would be somewhere between 0.1% and 0.01%

On lockdown policy:
• Referring to the Imperial model: “Should we act on a possible worst case scenario, given the costs of lockdown? It seems to me that given that the costs of lockdown are mounting that case is becoming more and more fragile”
• Recommends “a more rapid exit from lockdown based more on certain heuristics, like who is dying and what is happening to the death rates”

On the UK Government response:
• “We might have done better by doing nothing at all, or at least by doing something different, which would have been to pay attention to protecting the vulnerable”

On the R rate:
• It is “principally dependent on how many people are immune” and we don’t have that information.
• Deaths are the only reliable measure.

On New York:
• “When you have pockets of vulnerable people it might rip through those pockets in a way that it wouldn’t if the vulnerable people were more scattered within the general population.”

On social distancing:
• “Remaining in a state of lockdown is extremely dangerous”
• “We used to live in a state approximating lockdown 100 years ago, and that was what created the conditions for the Spanish Flu to come in and kill 50m people.”

On next steps:
• “It is very dangerous to talk about lockdown without recognising the enormous costs that it has on other vulnerable sectors in the population”
• It is a “strong possibility” that if we return to full normal tomorrow — pubs, nightclubs, festivals — we would be fine.

On the politics of Covid:
• “There is a sort of libertarian argument for the release of lockdown, and I think it is unfortunate that those of us who feel we should think differently about lockdown"
• “The truth is that lockdown is a luxury, and it’s a luxury that the middle classes are enjoying and higher income countries are enjoying at the expense of the poor, the vulnerable and less developed countries.”

Thanks for posting this, will have a look at it later.

RobitTV

lawrencesummers wrote: »

It’s one thing to openly flout the medical advice that has been given, it’s another to boast about it and rub peoples noses in it who are conforming to the guidelines even if they don’t want to.

The hills aren’t going anywhere. People are unfortunately and your selfishness is quiet frankly ****ing disgusting.

You are sadly honestly deluded. What is with the mass hysteria and utter misery?

This guy had a great day out while maintaining social distancing guidelines. He got out in the fresh air and enjoyed the company of his friends.

He will now feel much better in himself after today, mentally and physically.

Arghus

[Deleted User] wrote: »

To be fair, nobody is going to admit that they love lockdown because they hate that others like alcohol and bookies and are delighted they’re closed. But the tone is easily detected in the posts.

Also, nobody wants to admit that they love lockdown because they earn more for doing less.

Don't be ridiculous. Very few "enjoy" lockdown: it's a shyte way to live. I haven't heard one single person anywhere, ever, say they prefer it a normal and free everyday life. You are talking out of your hoop.

But it's easier to mischaracterise people and their beliefs, than it is to try to understand them.

CruelSummer

[Deleted User] wrote: »

I'm just back in the Republic from 6 hours hiking in the North. It was the best day I've had since the beginning of these restrictions. I met a friend of mine from Rostrevor on the track to the mountains and we headed off from there. We met a few other groups of 6 Northern hikers all thrilled to bits to be back out in the great outdoors. Since yesterday you can go anywhere you like for exercise in the North within groups of 6.
Both Warrenpoint and Rostrevor were busy, lots of people about, coffee shops doing take out goods, plus you can sit outside , they all have tables and chairs out, supermarkets and small shops all open as well as garden centers. There was a real buzz.

The ironic thing about today is that my friend has already planned 2 trips to the South in the next few weeks to do some hiking and touring. He has a tent so will be self sufficient. He's delighted it will be so quiet in the South! Yet I live in Louth and we cant go further than 5km. Not until after July 20th, 2 months away, can anyone go further than 20km (the hikers I chatted to on the mountains today couldn't believe this ). I would have more chance of being stopped going 8km in the South than if I drive over the border to hike. Yet Northerners can come down here and travel anywhere they want.


Met no checkpoints at all today, once you get over the border there are no police and no restrictions. People are treated like adults. Nobody is flaunting social distancing, even on the hills. I'd strongly recommend anyone who is feeling depressed and restricted and who lives in Louth, Donegal or other border counties to head North for a day out away from the oppressiveness here.

Delighted you’d a nice day Sweetmaggie, well deserved :-)

lawrencesummers

CruelSummer wrote: »

Ok thanks for that. You could’ve given it without the dig at the start...But at least I know where you’re coming from now.
Personally I think we’re far too slow to exit lockdown. The data suggests the fit and healthy do ok with this virus and we need them out generating employment, tax revenues and living life. The government and NPHET don’t seem to acknowledge this and their message has many people absolutely terrified, even to go out to the shop.
Homewares and all other shops should be open under the same rules as hardware if they are able to comply with the current rules.
I agree the 5km rule is very tough on people, we haven’t seen extended close family in months at this stage. It doesn’t make any sense. Practising social distancing and other safeguards as we exit make much more sense to me than this. Could the government not lift the travel limit & put a numbers capacity on popular public amenities if this is what they’re worried about? They could give twitter updates saying capacity reached, etc. Some beaches in France are using roped off areas for people to attend safely, with a time limit of 3 hours. It’s a good idea and could be used here, instead of us all having to stay within 20km for June.
Subject to numbers over the coming weeks, I also think we need to forget this ‘new normal’ concept. These measures should be temporary and subject to outbreaks, hospital pressures, etc. I’ll be very interested to see how Denmark fares in the coming weeks as they’re looking to reduce the social distance between people to 1 metre. I don’t think it’s feasible long term to have social/physical distancing in place. Children in particular will be badly affected by this, and the ‘pod’ idea is a recipe for disaster in my view at schools.

It wasn’t a dig, it was a response to your post.

I would expect that the roadmap won’t play out the way they it is written, and you can make specific points about it being flawed in some small areas, but overall it has to achieve the goal of no second lockdown.

So one step forward, analyze the data, and another step if the data is good.

is_that_so

LiquidZeb wrote: »

So you know more than an Oxford professor of epidemiology?

I reviewed what she said and learnt nothing new. If you want to pirouette with knicker elastic over that, be my guest.

lawrencesummers

Deleted User wrote: »

Nothing in her posts suggests she added any appreciable risk to anyone.

So should we leave it up to everyone to decide Themselves what they think is acceptable?